The Next President is...

[tk1313]

6 hours ago, Seriously said:

Didn't even click on the link did you? Sad.

Allow me to help you out. This is a small portion of the polls combined in the graphic. 

It's pretty clear that more Americans favor the ACA than those who do not favor it.

Strange... I looked at the entire list, and from October 10, 2009 to Jan 7, 2017 Americans are clearly and strongly opposed to the ACA. In the past year, yes, these every-so-accurate polls are showing more people in favor of the ACA... Maybe America is in an Enlightenment period and has finally discovered the amazing Utopia Obama wanted to create through government-provided healthcare/cell phones/everything else... After all, nothing says streamlined and monetary efficiency like government programs. We all remember the great successes of the VA hospitals and how Dems rode in like white knights to save the VA from the evil Republicans who wanted to defund it because Republicans hate Vets more than anything and wanted to screw them over under the guise of defunding a "corrupt and criminally negligent organization."

Or maybe less Republicans are voting in the polls because they know Trump and the Republican House/Senate want to get rid of the ACA and they don't have to fight the good fight via internet polls anymore; and more Dems are voting in the polls because they are afraid that the Obama Legacy will wither and Republicans will work in concert with the Russians to let the uber-wealthy deny all forms of healthcare to all the poor people of the land. The Trump administration will create a new form of AIDS and pump it into the inner cities while they laugh in their ivory towers as Hillary cradles a sick infant and cries out, "None of this would've happened if the electoral college didn't screw me out of a win!!"

Ok, sorry I've been reading too much Newsweek. In the end, the ACA sucks and badly hurt a close family member of mine because of the ridiculous regulations it put on small, private healthcare providers. But I'm not stupid enough to believe that the Republicans in DC are the answer to our healthcare woes. I think it would take cooperation from both sides to fix the shitshow going on in the system, so basically we're all fucked until the grandstanding idiots stop pointing fingers and start offering solutions.

Edited January 2, 2018 by tk1313

[17D_guy]

1 hour ago, tk1313 said:

I think it would take cooperation from both sides to fix the shitshow going on in the system, so basically we're all fucked until the grandstanding idiots stop pointing fingers and start offering solutions.

Preach.  Until we get past the "other side is the enemy" and not someone with a differing opinion of to get things done, we're screwed.  Compromise is a strength, yet we've stepped away from it in every facet.  Talking Heads on TV sure don't help.  

Hell, we've finally had R's in both Legistlature and Executive...and still can't get stuff done.  Not looking forward to the halt that'll be "Blue 2018."

[matmacwc]

It was made to be difficult, it was made to be slow.  And if you think our politics are bad, watch the House in London sometime, we seem down right civilized.  

[nsplayr]

6 hours ago, tk1313 said:

Strange... I looked at the entire list, and from October 10, 2009 to Jan 7, 2017 Americans are clearly and strongly opposed to the ACA. In the past year, yes, these every-so-accurate polls are showing more people in favor of the ACA... 

Like I said before, a lot of this reversal in popularity can be explained by loss aversion. 

6 hours ago, tk1313 said:

Or maybe less Republicans are voting in the polls because they know Trump and the Republican House/Senate want to get rid of the ACA and they don't have to fight the good fight via internet polls anymore; and more Dems are voting in the polls because they are afraid that the Obama Legacy will wither and Republicans will work in concert with the Russians to let the uber-wealthy deny all forms of healthcare to all the poor people of the land.

You may want to read up on how professional organizations do polling; your characterization of how it works is not remotely close to accurate. This is not a bad summary.

The biggest threat to modern political polling accuracy is reaching people who only have cell phones and actually getting them to respond to the poll questions. Today there’s a lot of art that goes into how you blend responses from land lines, cell phones and online surveys to still get an representative slice of the population...things were much simpler when the vast majority of voters had landline numbers listed in the phone book and you could call them during dinner and have them pick up.

There’s big money for the companies and organizations that can consistently demonstrate accurate results, so legitimate polling outfits have every incentive to be accurate and stay ahead of the curve in how to solve the challenges that exist. 

Edited January 2, 2018 by nsplayr

[Guest]

Forget the polls. Just google how many people still just enrolled in the ACA in the last sign up period. About 9 million just did so which should indicate that there is enough Blue and Red need for some sort of health service. 

 

[matmacwc]

They were forced to do it, it will be more telling in 2019 when that force goes away.

[Guest]

I guess that is one way to look at it. 

TBD 2018. I thought the penalty goes away in 2018. If someone does not sign up in 2018, do they still incur the penalty?

 

edit: disregard did not know  the ACA window for enrollment is so small. So TBD 2019

Edited January 3, 2018 by Guest

[tk1313]

19 hours ago, nsplayr said:

You may want to read up on how professional organizations do polling; your characterization of how it works is not remotely close to accurate. This is not a bad summary.

Valid, I'm not an expert on polling nor will I ever be (or care to be), which is why I came sarcasm loaded. But, in my defense, the so called "experts" in political polling consistently get it wrong, even when everyone knows their estimates are very far off. I personally think it is mostly bias, but whatever the case I simply couldn't care less because polls are polls (like rumors are rumors), and I never take them unless I'm picking which football team is going to win.

As an aside, wouldn't my "people stopped taking the ACA polls once the Repubs won the majority" fit into the "boomerang effect" from your link? I.e. President Trump says he will repeal ACA so I'm not going to take a poll asking my opinion on whether or not it should stay. I already voted for someone who wants to repeal it, he got elected... what's the point of reaffirming my stance via polling now?

[waveshaper]

Here's one positive accomplished, by this administration, that most folks will profit ($$$$) a wee bit from. You can compare your 2016/2017 taxes paid to what you should be paying in 2018.

https://www.taxreformcalculator.com/

Edited January 6, 2018 by waveshaper

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, waveshaper said:

Here's one positive accomplished, by this administration, that most folks will profit ($$$$) a wee bit from. You can compare your 2016/2017 taxes paid to what you should be paying in 2018.

https://www.taxreformcalculator.com/

I'm saving over $1k, with the added bonus that I won't have to itemize deductions.

 

[waveshaper]

Here's the current official list of the worlds 25 worst shithole countries. Ref; United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) plus other factors. Note; 23 of the worlds worst countries are on the African Continent, the other two shittiest countries in the world are Haiti and Afghanistan. Also, according to UN Human Development Index Norway is the best/most livable country in the world. Note; There's not enough data for the UN to score the shittyness of Somali and North Korea but they would probably be in the top five shittiest countries on earth if the UN ever gets enough data for a UN HDI score.
- Here's the UN list (Niger is the #1 worst country in the world).

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2015/12/21/25-worst-countries-to-live-in-the-world/

1. Niger.
2. Central African Republic.
3. Eritrea.
4. Chad.
5. Burundi.
6. Burkina Faso.
7. Guinea.
8. Sierra Leone.
9. Mozambique.
10. Mali.
11. Guinea-Bissau.
12. Liberia.
13. Democratic Republic of the Congo.

14. Gambia.
15. Ethiopia.
16. Malawi.
17. Cote d-Ivoire.
18. Afghanistan.
19. Senegal.
20. South Sudan.
21. Djibouti.
22. Sudan.
23. Benin.
24. Haiti.
25. Uganda.

World map with UN HDI score for each country;

https://hdr.undp.org/en/countries

 

 

[17D_guy]

To me, it makes perfect sense why they'd want to come here.

[Prozac]

9 hours ago, waveshaper said:

Here's the current official list of the worlds 25 worst shithole countries. Ref; United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) plus other factors. Note; 23 of the worlds worst countries are on the African Continent, the other two shittiest countries in the world are Haiti and Afghanistan. Also, according to UN Human Development Index Norway is the best/most livable country in the world. Note; There's not enough data for the UN to score the shittyness of Somali and North Korea but they would probably be in the top five shittiest countries on earth if the UN ever gets enough data for a UN HDI score.
- Here's the UN list (Niger is the #1 worst country in the world).

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2015/12/21/25-worst-countries-to-live-in-the-world/

1. Niger.
2. Central African Republic.
3. Eritrea.
4. Chad.
5. Burundi.
6. Burkina Faso.
7. Guinea.
8. Sierra Leone.
9. Mozambique.
10. Mali.
11. Guinea-Bissau.
12. Liberia.
13. Democratic Republic of the Congo.

14. Gambia.
15. Ethiopia.
16. Malawi.
17. Cote d-Ivoire.
18. Afghanistan.
19. Senegal.
20. South Sudan.
21. Djibouti.
22. Sudan.
23. Benin.
24. Haiti.
25. Uganda.

World map with UN HDI score for each country;

https://hdr.undp.org/en/countries

 

 

Yeah. Fuck those people. 

[HeloDude]

7 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

To me, it makes perfect sense why they'd want to come here.

And to me, it makes perfect sense why we would want to scrutinize the hell out of those individuals (all immigrants really) who wants to come here.  If it doesn't benefit American citizens then why bring in people who will be a net drain on society?  It's bad enough that our federal government fetuses to take border security/illegal immigration seriously, but intentionally welcoming people who do not share our values/have little offer is stupid.  Europe is starting to learn this the hard way...

[nsplayr]

Y’all rationalizing POTUS saying certain (overwhelmingly black) countries are “shithole countries” and certain (overwhelmingly white) countries have more desirable potential immigrants is pretty sad. No one is arguing that Haiti is nicer than Norway, it’s pretty clear that it’s not; that’s not the point.

But have some damn decency Mr. President. You’re the POTUS and you speak for us and your words matter. You simply cannot talk like this.

The story of America is not that we built some modern-day Elysium by only letting in the “right” people with the “best” backgrounds. Far from it, and almost exactly the opposite in fact. Raise your hand if your ancestors immigrated here from a country that used to be considered not so great...my hand is raised.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/opinion/illegal-immigration-italian-americans.html

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
 

With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
 

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
 

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
 

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
 

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Edited January 12, 2018 by nsplayr

[HossHarris]

Goddamn hippies

[nsplayr]

21 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

1) He's not on tape saying "Haiti is a shithole". A "Democratic Aide" told the press that the comment was uttered at a bipartisan meeting. As any of us with significant others knows... What you say and what they hear are often VERY different things. He could have said it, or he may have never said it at all. We simply don't know.

2) Speaking of "rationalizing"... in the WaPo, HuffPo and NBC News pieces, they don't give any supposed quotes or tidbits that support your "this is racism" premise. It's hilarious really. Everyday I have to hear about how Trump is a child, he's stupid, he's not smart, he's mentally disabled, etc... but yet you (and liberals, writ large) seriously think someone who is all of those things, someone who can hardly manage to wipe his own ass... has this great, secret, racist plan that he's covering up by saying "shithole countries" when he really means "I hate black/brown people". So, either the left is wrong about him being so incredibly stupid, or they're wrong about this great racist master plan. 

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. The left lost their mind (cries of racism) when certain elements of the right wing hated Obama for the sake of hating him. That element of the right wing often concocted false stories and narratives to justify that hate. Well, look in the mirror. They (the left) are doing the exact same thing now.

3) America has a great history of letting in people whom we thought could contribute to society at large. Now, I guess it's racist to even ask if they want to contribute once they get here. If you're non-white and want to be an American, come on in! It would be racist of us to ask your skills and desires!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/12/senator-who-immigration-meeting-trump-he-said-hate-filled-vile-and-racist-things/1027816001/

1. Senator Dick Durbin, who was in the room, says on the record that the President said what was quoted in the Post story. So I mean, I wasn't there, but one of these two people is lying. I'll take my changes on that one given the track record.

2. Saying that immigrants from Haiti and El Salvador and Africa are not desirable, categorically, and ones from Norway are desirable, categorically, is pretty clear. Hummm...what do probably 99% of immigrants from the former "shithole" category have in common? What do 99% of immigrants from Norway have in common, other than being from Norway, that differs from the first group? Granted, the President didn't say explicitly, "I hate black people!" but come on man, put on your thinking cap and take a look at what he meant. IMHO he has a 1980s NYC attitude toward race that is inappropriate for 2018 in general and the office he holds specifically.

3. America has a great history of letting people in, period. Immigration has been a huge strength for our country in contrast to places like Japan or some European countries who were more insular and are now graying and in need of more young workers. And I'm not opposed to programs that take into account the skills and educational attainment of immigrants, we have programs like that. I am very much opposed to categorically labeling an entire country's population (or an entire continent's population) as being unworthy of immigrating to American because their birthplace is, in fact, a shithole.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Y’all rationalizing POTUS saying certain (overwhelmingly black) countries are “shithole countries” and certain (overwhelmingly white) countries have more desirable potential immigrants is pretty sad. No one is arguing that Haiti is nicer than Norway, it’s pretty clear that it’s not; that’s not the point.

But have some damn decency Mr. President. You’re the POTUS and you speak for us and your words matter. You simply cannot talk like this.

The story of America is not that we built some modern-day Elysium by only letting in the “right” people with the “best” backgrounds. Far from it, and almost exactly the opposite in fact. Raise your hand if your ancestors immigrated here from a country that used to be considered not so great...my hand is raised.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/opinion/illegal-immigration-italian-americans.html

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
 

With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
 

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
 

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
 

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
 

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

How about just a little decency!

[Jaded]

Trump couldn't have chosen a worse target for his racist comments than Nigeria. 

Houston Chronicle:

"Data show Nigerians the most educated in the U.S.

BACHELOR'S AND BEYOND
In America, Nigerians' education pursuit is above rest
Whether driven by immigration or family, data show more earn degrees" 

https://www.chron.com/news/article/Data-show-Nigerians-the-most-educated-in-the-U-S-1600808.php

He's racist. Stop rationalizing. If you're OK with comments like this (it's not the first time he's made racist comments), you're racist too. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Jaded

[nsplayr]

@Kiloalpha I guess my point with posting part of The New Colossus poem (inscribed on the base of the Statue of Liberty) is that IMHO, it is the American tradition to accept immigrants in some ways without regard to their skills or background.

America was built by a lot of cast-offs and unwanted people from around the world and I think it would be a mistake for us to think that we've somehow "made it" now and we should only accept the best and brightest with the most perfect resumes. For those who decry elitism in other aspects of public policy and society, an elitist immigration policy to me is one that takes a cold, calculating look at paper resumes and only lets in those who are already top achievers.

I do support targeted programs that allow for additional highly-skilled immigrants and that work to actively attract them, but I also support an overarching immigration policy that views America as a safe-haven, a new beginning, and a shining city on a hill that's open to anyone in the world who wants to get a fair shot at a better deal.

"I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still." - President Reagan, from his Jan 1989 farewell speech.

My immigrant ancestors from Italy and elsewhere didn't have college degrees or a lot of money. Some were fairly shady folks back in the Old Country and I'm sure there were criminals among them. Some had fairly swarthy complexions and big noses, and none spoke much english. They would not pass some tough standard for immigration based on skills. But they came and they were accepted in time by American society and I'm glad they did.

Where I do agree with you is assimilation - to me we don't have immigrants and natural-born citizens, we have Americans. I want future immigrants to understand that when they come here, they become Americans, either as residents and some eventually as citizens, and that means something special. Yes, it means learning our language, our culture, our customs, and working hard to contribute to the country as a whole, but being an American transcends all that. It means you're a valued member of a country where anyone can make it, where no one is above the law, and where you're not bound by your race or your class or your religion or where you or your parents were born. The Land of Opportunity.

I say we welcome the downtrodden and the well-off and everyone in between and show them all what it truly means to be an American if they're up to the task.

Edited January 12, 2018 by nsplayr

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Trump couldn't have chosen a worse target for his racist comments than Nigeria. 

Houston Chronicle:

"Data show Nigerians the most educated in the U.S.

BACHELOR'S AND BEYOND
In America, Nigerians' education pursuit is above rest
Whether driven by immigration or family, data show more earn degrees" 

https://www.chron.com/news/article/Data-show-Nigerians-the-most-educated-in-the-U-S-1600808.php

He's racist. Stop rationalizing. If you're OK with comments like this (it's not the first time he's made racist comments), you're racist too. 

Preach, it reminds me of his leading role in the birther movement! 

[Orbit]

25 minutes ago, Jaded said:

you're racist too. 

This is bullshit.  

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

If we're getting into immigration policy, I agree with most of what you wrote. Unfortunately for the rest of the world, there are limits on how many immigrants we can accept and handle as a nation.

My family hailed from Finland. My 3rd great grandfather had to wait almost a decade to get into the US, and another 5-6 years after immigrating before he could afford to put papers in for his wife and kids. Trust me, I'm no progeny of academia, royalty or celebrity. I'm here because he was given a chance, and I'll be forever grateful for that. However, those feelings shouldn't mean we throw our doors open for anyone and everyone. I'd want a balanced policy, (admittedly leaning more towards skilled workers) where x amount of skilled workers get admitted and x amount of non-skilled workers get admitted. No more lottery system for people who don't want to be citizens, no more uncontrolled chain migration and an end to illegal immigration (both visa overstays and border crossing). I know I have better odds at winning the Powerball than getting that, but it doesn't hurt to dream.

@Jaded that data is for Nigerians who pursue education after coming here, not before. Kind of apples and oranges, but an interesting point nonetheless. 

@1111 now Joe Arpaio is running in AZ. That primary race will become a race to the bottom. Mark my words.

Even though we may not agree on the way forward, thanks for being civil about it. 

Yeah, but but the fact that they made it a point to prioritize education should be the spirit of the kind of folks we want here. How many of us who are second, third generation of migrant families who may not have gotten this opportunity if we had some of the skills barrier we are trying to employ?

Btw, I think we will just create a new “bottom” when we get there. Our lack of civility at the top levels (blues and reds) is astounding. And it starts and is worst at the top.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Guest

[Kiloalpha]

6 minutes ago, 1111 said:

Even though we may not agree on the way forward, thanks for being civil about it. 

Yeah, but but the fact that they made it a point to prioritize education should be the spirit of the kind of folks we want here. How many of us who are second, third generation of migrant families who may not have gotten this opportunity if we had some of the skills barrier we are trying to employ?

Btw, I think we will just create a new “bottom” when we get there. Our lack of civility at the top levels (blues and reds) is astounding. And it starts and is worst at the top.

Ideas should be shared, challenged, understood and most importantly... respected. I'll chat about this stuff with anyone, because 9/10, I'll learn something and that makes the whole thing worth it.

I agree, that's a solid point. But, as with so many statistics and numbers, correlation doesn't equal causation (just because it looks related, doesn't mean it is). In fact, the article itself mentions this "The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 made it easier for Africans to enter the U.S., but mostly as students or highly skilled professionals — not through family sponsorships, Klineberg said.". Kind of makes sense that we'd have more educated Nigerians than Americans (by percentage), if the only reason they're allowed in is to get a degree... doesn't it? To answer your question directly, yes. We should bring in people who want to learn, grow and contribute. 

[Jaded]

A Narcissist's Prayer

That didn't happen.

And if it did, it wasn't that bad.

And if it was, that's not a big deal.

And if it is, that's not my fault.

And if it was, I didn't mean it.

And if I did...

You deserved it.