The Next President is...

[Seadogs]

26 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Getting?  It has been, and will be close.  I'm looking forward to seeing the margins that whomever wins each state wins by.  10K voters, 5K somewhere...maybe less.  I think that's cool, and our process is cool.  I hate that it's already getting called a fraud, largest turnout...ever?...and "fraud."  R's picking up more minority votes (good thing)...also fraud?  Ben Shapiro very right on his calls about this whole thing.

Fox News needs to be dealt with for calling AZ like that. Does anyone know why they are stopping counting then restarting, stopping, etc? FL had 10 mil votes to count and did it well. Why are states with way less doing this and releasing it in batches? Makes no sense. 

[DosXX]

7 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

Fox News needs to be dealt with for calling AZ like that. Does anyone know why they are stopping counting then restarting, stopping, etc? FL had 10 mil votes to count and did it well. Why are states with way less doing this and releasing it in batches? Makes no sense. 

Yeah Fox shouldn't have done that. If Nevada gets called Biden which is looking more likely than Arizona then Fox is going to have to be the first to declare Biden winner.

In Florida they can start counting mail in ballots 22 days before election. Other states they have to wait until election day to start counting. They stop counting eventually to give the counters a break in these states, and one of many reasons it gets released in batches is because they get counted all together and then escorted to the clerk for the upload. 

[Seadogs]

28 minutes ago, DosXX said:

Yeah Fox shouldn't have done that. If Nevada gets called Biden which is looking more likely than Arizona then Fox is going to have to be the first to declare Biden winner.

In Florida they can start counting mail in ballots 22 days before election. Other states they have to wait until election day to start counting. They stop counting eventually to give the counters a break in these states, and one of many reasons it gets released in batches is because they get counted all together and then escorted to the clerk for the upload. 

Makes no sense that they have to wait days to count the vote though. It is eroding the Rights' faith in the security of a free and fair election. If Trump loses, it will be because of fraud. If Biden loses, it will be because Trump stole it. The narrative is set, the nation is about to see something crazy. 

[DosXX]

39 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

Makes no sense that they have to wait days to count the vote though. It is eroding the Rights' faith in the security of a free and fair election. If Trump loses, it will be because of fraud. If Biden loses, it will be because Trump stole it. The narrative is set, the nation is about to see something crazy

It makes sense if you consider the facts. In Nevada for example they continue to count votes if they were post marked by election day until Nov 10. Other states have similar rules but aren't being talked about because it isn't a close race and the state is called. You could also argue setting strict deadlines like no counts after election day erode free and fair election if the mail was delayed for reasons outside the voters control, so it's always going to be a political issue that gets set at the state level. Btw in Pennsylvania it was a Republican state legislature that blocked the counting of votes before election day in Pennsylvania. 

44 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

The narrative is set, the nation is about to see something crazy. 

Is this another bold prediction you are confident in? What do you think is going to happen? I don't think anything is going to happen outside of fringe protests and Trump complaining on Twitter.

[Seadogs]

11 minutes ago, DosXX said:

It makes sense if you consider the facts. In Nevada for example they continue to count votes if they were post marked by election day until Nov 10. Other states have similar rules but aren't being talked about because it isn't a close race and the state is called. You could also argue setting strict deadlines like no counts after election day erode free and fair election if the mail was delayed for reasons outside the voters control, so it's always going to be a political issue that gets set at the state level. Btw in Pennsylvania it was a Republican state legislature that blocked the counting of votes before election day in Pennsylvania. 

Is this another bold prediction you are confident in? What do you think is going to happen? I don't think anything is going to happen outside of fringe protests and Trump complaining on Twitter.

If you think being snide makes you sound smarter you would be incorrect.

 

Anyway, FL, a huge swing state should be modeled. It had its winner declared early in the night. A small state like NV taking days? I don't buy it. 

 

And what do you think is going to happen when months of "Trump will steal the election!" "Mail in ballots are safe/unsafe!" etc. come to fruition? You think Antifa will sit down? You think the right is going to watch an election get stolen? 

[17D_guy]

Saw a tweet on Shaprio's timeline from Jeb Bush that sheds some light into FL being ahead on these things. 

Before I retired and was a DO of one of the National CPTs we spent a lot of time discussing election protection (CYBERCOM put this out there).  There are a lot of states that are damn near medieval with how they run their elections. 

It's a benefit/cost of our system.  We had to dig down into the frigging US code/Constitution to figure out where we could offer assistance if we were asked for it.  You'd think the lawyers at CNMF would do that...nah.  That's why the Guard is so important for cyber, gov's can just use them (see Louisiana recently).

https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/1324168561582055426?s=20

Edited November 5, 2020 by 17D_guy
fixing link.

[17D_guy]

2 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

 You think the right is going to watch an election get stolen? 

Do you have an evidence of this?  Does anyone?  Outside Trumps ramblings there's no evidence of it.  They've lost a few lawsuits about it now.  Unless you're going to contend each of those judges is super liberal enough to disregard their oaths/jobs.  I saw 1 video on FoxNews about it that was quickly address by the Nevada election officials.

It is strange the Fox called AZ so early.  Also, cutting of counting of the mailing ballots will probably hit military voters overseas dis-proportionally.  Maybe not, I'm sure I'll see it in the news at some point.

There's evidence of states doing things their way...seems very Republican to me.

[Sim]

4 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Do you have an evidence of this?  Does anyone? 

If you look, you will see. Many places have turnout rate higher than registered voters. 

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJackBMontgomery%2Fstatus%2F1324453025348415489&widget=Tweet

[Seadogs]

4 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Do you have an evidence of this?  Does anyone?  Outside Trumps ramblings there's no evidence of it.  They've lost a few lawsuits about it now.  Unless you're going to contend each of those judges is super liberal enough to disregard their oaths/jobs.  I saw 1 video on FoxNews about it that was quickly address by the Nevada election officials.

It is strange the Fox called AZ so early.  Also, cutting of counting of the mailing ballots will probably hit military voters overseas dis-proportionally.  Maybe not, I'm sure I'll see it in the news at some point.

There's evidence of states doing things their way...seems very Republican to me.

There are instances. Fleccas Twitter shows him punching in dead people's info into MI's ballot counting system and showing that they voted. You can gather what you will from these but they are definitely out there.

 

The state's rights thing, what if the Federal government mandated fast efficient elections such as FL's? Is that unconstitutional? 

[Seadogs]

1 minute ago, Sim said:

If you look, you will see. Many places have turnout rate higher than registered voters. 

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJackBMontgomery%2Fstatus%2F1324453025348415489&widget=Tweet

Apparently Ben Shapiro debunked this and said that places such as WI have same day voter registration. Not sure of other states though. 

[Sim]

2 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

Apparently Ben Shapiro debunked this and said that places such as WI have same day voter registration. Not sure of other states though. 

I'll have to watch later his stuff. 

Project V has been doing very well displaying fraud. 

 

[DosXX]

35 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

And what do you think is going to happen when months of "Trump will steal the election!" "Mail in ballots are safe/unsafe!" etc. come to fruition? You think Antifa will sit down? You think the right is going to watch an election get stolen? 

I just don't think this will happen. ANTIFA isn't gonna do shit now that their boogeyman is gone, and the right isn't gonna do anything either. Nothing was stolen if everything was legal. Outside of a few fringe cases there will not be any evidence of systemic voter fraud. Trump will complain for a few weeks, lose court challenges and recounts, and ultimately concede (assuming Biden wins of course, which is very likely at this point).

If you want votes to stop counting right now in Nevada then Biden would be declared winner. I want Biden to win and don't even want that to happen, let the counting be finalized. 

[Breckey]

The states have until December to finalize the tally for the EC to vote. Every legal vote should be counted.  

Same day voter registration is the missing factor for the higher number of votes than the number of registered voters on 1 Nov. From the fivethirtyeight blog:

Quote

To give you an idea of how much same-day registration can change things, let’s look at the impact in North Carolina in 2016, as recorded in a report by the Southern Coalition for Social Justice. In that election, more than 100,000 voters registered at the same time they voted. Now, North Carolina does this a little differently than other states with same-day registration in that it only applies to early voting, not on Election Day proper. But you can see how it could easily make a big change in voter registration numbers. What’s more, at least in North Carolina, same-day registration doesn’t seem to be disproportionately used by one party or the other. In 2016, 35 percent of SDR users were Democrats, 34 percent were Republicans and 30 percent were unaffiliated. 

 

[Seadogs]

26 minutes ago, Breckey said:

The states have until December to finalize the tally for the EC to vote. Every legal vote should be counted.  

Same day voter registration is the missing factor for the higher number of votes than the number of registered voters on 1 Nov. From the fivethirtyeight blog:

 

Even if not post marked by election day? 

[Breckey]

If they're not postmarked by election day then they aren't legal votes.

[Sua Sponte]

If a vote isn’t postmarked by Election Day, it doesn’t count. If a vote is postmarked by Election Day, and counted later, that is a legal vote held by the Supreme Court. Trump told his base to go to the polls and vote in person. Biden supported mail-in voting with his supporters. A lot of states stated they would count in-person votes before mail-in/absentee votes. Logic would show that a majority of Trump’s supporters would vote in person and be counted first, Biden supporters would mail-in and counted later. Which looks like that’s exactly was happening.

Edited November 6, 2020 by Sua Sponte

[17D_guy]

2 hours ago, Breckey said:

If they're not postmarked by election day then they aren't legal votes.

It's looking like the "hanging chad" of this one is going to be legible postmarks.

[Sua Sponte]

Georgia’s about to flip to Biden.

[bfargin]

Plus the dems are waiting for the rest of the dead votes to be counted. Landslide for Biden!

[17D_guy]

Nothing like a President undermining the democratic process.

[Sua Sponte]

14 minutes ago, bfargin said:

Plus the dems are waiting for the rest of the dead votes to be counted. Landslide for Biden!

Well, it’s only voter fraud if you’re losing, and only after 90%+ of votes are counted. But it’s not voter fraud in states you have strong leads in.

[Guardian]

And thus ushers in one of the most racist immoral times in our countries history with Biden / Harris. Death of the American dream. Alienating the inalienable rights. Equality of outcome here we come.

[17D_guy]

4 minutes ago, Guardian said:

And thus ushers in one of the most racist immoral times in our countries history with Biden / Harris. Death of the American dream. Alienating the inalienable rights. Equality of outcome here we come.

Calm down Francis.

[gearhog]

3 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Calm down Francis.

Shameful. Go watch the movie again.

[17D_guy]

This is a fun twitter thread about the Philly lawsuit that got tossed.

 

https://twitter.com/kadhim/status/1324482449498394624?s=20