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The Next President is...


disgruntledemployee

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On 2/14/2022 at 5:10 PM, Prozac said:

So basically what you’re saying is…

 

Not even remotely close, but nice try.  With the specific regard to classification, the President is the ultimate authority (as I understand it, I could be wrong).  Not breaking and entering, not obstruction, not murder, not any other crime.  So unique that I can't even think of a reasonable analogy to make about it.

Not saying that I agree with it or with the person, but merely an interesting point to ponder.

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On 2/14/2022 at 4:41 PM, LumberjackAxe said:

 

No one hacked anything. The dude in question is on trial for perjury, not for illegally accessing a computer system. This was a fellow who unethically used his position in the IT company that legally controlled these networks to access DNS logs, which he had legal access to. Unethical, yes, but not illegal. The illegal part is when he lied about who he was working with.

And this has nothing to do with Trump's impeachment, he was impeached for his Ukraine phone call, because, as we've all seen, there never was any collusion to begin with.

Some stories keep bringing up Georgia Tech along with this IT guy. So far, it sounds to me like there was a government contract to do work with governmental IT systems. I'm not an IT guy but I'd guess there were classifications and clearances given, Non-disclosure agreements signed , etc. associated with that contracted work. Violating those clearances and NDAs probably come with a criminal statute and sentencing guidelines. Sharing government data probably violated both. 

Edited by TreeA10
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  • 2 weeks later...
52 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Elon Musk supports increasing oil output in wake of Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com)

So will the current admin go down this path or will they cling to their "green energy" addiction for dear life?

 

There seems to be a split right now between WH Dems and Congressional Dems. I think negotiating a solution to override WH though will be hard though. Dems are facing a bit of a crises now for which values they are going to stand up for. 

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2 hours ago, kaputt said:

Elon Musk supports increasing oil output in wake of Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com)

So will the current admin go down this path or will they cling to their "green energy" addiction for dear life?

 

The latter.  War in Ukraine actually gives them a bit of an excuse as to why gas is a lot higher than under Trump (even before Covid)…but it won’t work.  I still don’t see how the Dems keep the House.  Their chances for keeping the Senate right now are 50/50 at best.  Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

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11 hours ago, FLEA said:

Ahhhhh nothing like a good ol security crises to cement those approval ratings before going into an election your party is unpopular in....

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/596890-bidens-approval-rating-jumps-to-47-percent-after-state-of-the-union-address

I'm wondering what rational person listened to that feces and thought "yeah, he seems to have it all under control". I get that his supporters know what he is and accept it, but how did that dumpster fire of a speech positively sway anybody's opinion??

Edited by bfargin
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8 hours ago, HeloDude said:

The latter.  War in Ukraine actually gives them a bit of an excuse as to why gas is a lot higher than under Trump (even before Covid)…but it won’t work.  I still don’t see how the Dems keep the House.  Their chances for keeping the Senate right now are 50/50 at best.  Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

Voters have notably short attention spans. Local governments are removing mask mandates...I totally see that being a selling point in the elections.  "Trump and the GOP put you in masks and closed businesses. Biden and the dems have made it safe to take off the masks and go back to work..."

All nonsense, of course. But that's what I expect to see.  And a lot of voters will forget that it was democratically controlled states and cities that created the most burdensome mandates.

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On 3/4/2022 at 12:02 AM, FLEA said:

It's amazing how they literally just argue that inflationary things are actually deflationary.

 

17 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

No. I expect hyperinflation (already happening) to be reflected in the official numbers, especially as rent increases from last year start making it into the metrics. They are going to get slaughtered.

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The baseline assumption in modern American politics is the incumbent party loses seats at the first midterm. All bets should be made from that baseline, e.g. a Dem loss of both chambers in 2022 should be expected even if you know nothing about anything other than the raw seat numbers in both chambers and which party holds the White House.

My personal guess as of tonight is the GOP takes the House with a 10-20 seat majority (net +20-30ish from now) seats and I could believe a senate anywhere from 46/54 GOP-led to a 52/48 Dem led, there are some interesting senate races out there this cycle.

But as we see in the news, sh*t happens and people’s memories are short, so we’ll see where we’re at by November!

Feel free to look back and laugh in a few months, although I will mention that I predicted Biden’s SCOTUS nominee correctly when the vacancy was first announced 😎 My guy did famously narrow it down quite a bit though haha…made it relatively easy. Though one could say the same of Trump, having chosen all three of his nominees from a well-publicized short list and saying specifically he wanted to replace Ginsburg with another woman (how sexist of him! /sarcasm).

Edited by nsplayr
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10 hours ago, nsplayr said:

The baseline assumption in modern American politics is the incumbent party loses seats at the first midterm. All bets should be made from that baseline, e.g. a Dem loss of both chambers in 2022 should be expected even if you know nothing about anything other than the raw seat numbers in both chambers and which party holds the White House.

My personal guess as of tonight is the GOP takes the House with a 10-20 seat majority (net +20-30ish from now) seats and I could believe a senate anywhere from 46/54 GOP-led to a 52/48 Dem led, there are some interesting senate races out there this cycle.

But as we see in the news, sh*t happens and people’s memories are short, so we’ll see where we’re at by November!

Feel free to look back and laugh in a few months, although I will mention that I predicted Biden’s SCOTUS nominee correctly when the vacancy was first announced 😎 My guy did famously narrow it down quite a bit though haha…made it relatively easy. Though one could say the same of Trump, having chosen all three of his nominees from a well-publicized short list and saying specifically he wanted to replace Ginsburg with another woman (how sexist of him! /sarcasm).

I'm just hoping we never have all three (house, senate, potus) controlled by the same party.  I absolutely love a slow cumbersome government that has to convince everyone that the cause du-jour is a good idea. It's not foolproof, as evidenced by the Patriot Act among others, but it usually works better than either party does alone.

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1 hour ago, bfargin said:

I'm just hoping we never have all three (house, senate, potus) controlled by the same party.  I absolutely love a slow cumbersome government that has to convince everyone that the cause du-jour is a good idea. It's not foolproof, as evidenced by the Patriot Act among others, but it usually works better than either party does alone.

The flip side is said slow cumbersome government actually passing a budget and funding essential elements of our government such as the military. 

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3 hours ago, dream big said:

The flip side is said slow cumbersome government actually passing a budget and funding essential elements of our government such as the military. 

There is truth in your words of iron ... (sorry, I just watched Outlaw Josie Wales again.)

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Hay-sus Krist, this 'thing' won't die...

Multiple political outlets have reported on the Clintons spooling up their "Clinton Global Initiative" machinery again.

You know, that multi-hundreds of millions of dollars in donations for access to then-Senator, later SecState, later presumed POTUS heir apparent.  When she crashed and burned in 2016, donations went down from the 10s of millions per year in, largely, foreign money - Russia/Saudi/Pakistan, etc - to the thousands.

Now, the old band is getting back together.

She's gonna try again.

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