The Next President is...

[Lord Ratner]

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Age is an immutable characteristic, even moreso than race or gender, that isn't necessarily and indicator in itself of future performance.

Precisely because you can't predict how an individual will age and decline, and the job is too important to risk on something like Biden, I'm using statistical models of cognitive decline, and last I looked the models showed cognitive decline increasing around 75 years old pretty substantially. So, 65. 

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Not one person will ever notice, nor even consider your reason for not voting for President.

Yeah because there isn't a gigantic industry behind analyzing election results and voter habits... It's all just magic smoke! I've been surveyed no fewer than a dozen times this election alone. 

 

More to the point, I avoid hiring people over 75 whenever possible. I'm not allowed to fly passengers with them (at a much younger age of 65), and I don't find them to be open minded or particularly fun as a group. So why would I vote for them to run the country? They (Boomers) are also the biggest threat to the financial stability of our nation.

 

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Here's an analogy: When we went through pilot training, it was challenging (probably more for you). We had a deeply seated personal interest in the outcome. It meant everything. One day the FLT/CC said, "Here's the drop." Would you have even considered saying:

- "I don't like the choices. They all suck. I'm not filling out the dream sheet."

- "Not interested. The C-130/KC-135/B-52 are too old."

- "I trust all my classmates will make the right decision for me."

- "If I don't fill out a dream sheet, the AF will understand that I'm not happy, and give me better opportunities in the future."

And none of your classmates would have ever said "Wow, what brave and principled position. This guy is above the fray." The guy who would have gotten the AWACs is going to point and laugh at you.

The choices are what they are, and the likelihood that the process by which we arrive at these alternatives is going to get better in the future is low. Everybody wishes they had a better menu from which to choose. It's just fantasy. Anyway, that analogy was a bit of a reach but I hope you vote, brother. Cheers

Almost everything in this quote is... Silly.

I never once studied in pilot training (other than going to the UTD), so I'm not sure what that does to the rest of the analogy. Nor did it mean everything to me. I turned down one of 3 T-38s for my class because I knew that being a fighter/bomber pilot would mean a *lot* of studying and I don't like studying. 

 

I've recently not filled out preferences if I didn't have a preference. We definitely had students who specifically didn't want to fly the older airplanes because they were old. And the AF doesn't study dream sheets in the hopes of understanding future track select trends. You do know that they track partial ballots, right? 

 

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

And none of your classmates would have ever said "Wow, what brave and principled position. This guy is above the fray." The guy who would have gotten the AWACs is going to point and laugh at you.

Is this why you vote? To feel brave? To gain the admiration of your peers? I don't. I just vote for what I think is best. And while I think Trump winning is better than Kamala winning, I think it would also be good to see reduced turnout for Trump as an indication that despite his victory, he is not the direction the conservatives should go. Your suggestion that these things are not tracked is frankly laughable. 

 

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Anyway, that analogy was a bit of a reach but I hope you vote, brother. Cheers

Agreed. And I'll be voting, just not for president. 

[gearhog]

For the record, I did say that analogy was bit of a reach. I might need to tweak it a little. In spite of what most here believe, I don't nail it every time. 😄 However...

Your contention is that there is gigantic industry around tracking and analyzing election results and voter habits. You've been surveyed a dozen times, likely with the same spam text messages I get. Partial ballots are tracked. Ok. Fine. All of that means absolutely nothing. The proof is in the pudding. The science does not work. If you believe that it does, how would you explain the net result of this industrial sized effort is the US electorate consistently receiving poor quality options? You have a lot of faith in a voter feedback system that yields a presidential candidate with one of the lowest approval ratings in history and receiving zero votes in the primary and another who is a reality TV star who says crazy shit. Where was the science?

I don't like the system, either. But you don't get to choose your choices.

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Is this why you vote? To feel brave? To gain the admiration of your peers? I don't. I just vote for what I think is best. And while I think Trump winning is better than Kamala winning, I think it would also be good to see reduced turnout for Trump as an indication that despite his victory, he is not the direction the conservatives should go. Your suggestion that these things are not tracked is frankly laughable. 

 

Agreed. And I'll be voting, just not for president. 

Hmmm... now that you mention it, I suppose I do vote to feel somewhat brave. It takes a little courage to commit yourself to a decision that isn't perfect isn't a guarantee, and may have drawbacks. Not making a decision is easy and takes zero courage. "I just vote for what I think is best" and in the very next line say Trump is the better candidate. A few words later, you accuse my position of being laughable. Huh?

Simply put: Voters matter, non-voters do not.

 

Edited October 26 by gearhog

[SpeedOfHeat]

On 10/24/2024 at 8:35 PM, ViperMan said:

……is fake news.

What about….

…..your TDS

Thank you for proving my point.  

On 10/25/2024 at 11:29 AM, Lord Ratner said:

generals, who I consider to be the most pathetic group in America right now, as some sort of evidence. This generation of generals have distinguished themselves in nothing other than their ability to eat the most shit and disregard their own virtue to assure promotion in an organization that hasn't accomplished anything for decades.

You missed the central point about the contradiction:  If these Generals are such shitheads and “swamp dwellers”….then why did Trump hire them if he “knows the best people.  Great people.”  In fact, he only “hires the best people.”  

The answer, is, he was bullshitting, which he admitted to on the Rogan podcast yesterday:  

Rogan:  “how did you know who to appoint?”  

Trump. “Well, I didn’t.  I didn’t have any experience.  I was there 17 times in Washington, but never stayed over.  But I didn’t know anybody.  I was a New York guy. I was a New York builder andI knew that whole world. But I didn't know the Washington world too well. And all of a sudden, you're supposed to be appointing top people.  It’s the biggest mistake I made.”  

He found out he would have to take recommendations from advisors.  He discovered that there were important reasons why politicians typically got hired.  He mentions that some of his hires were “bad.”  Joe asks how, and he answers “bad or disloyal people.”

So this is a decent example of a core reason that many people are appalled at Trump’s candidacy:  He’s fundamentally too foolish and arrogant to know what he’s getting himself into, so he just tries to make it up as he goes.  …possibly the biggest example of “fake it till ya make it” ever.  

And worst of all, as he fumbles around faking it, he makes decisions based on ego and self-interest.  That’s it.  That’s the lense through which he sees life.

And I know……people will say he was already President and we survived.  That’s true.  And I’m sure many will disagree with me, but I simply think we got lucky.  I do.  He’s in way over his head.  A lot can go wrong in another 4 years.

14 hours ago, Smokin said:

an idiot?  I realize he inherited a bunch of money, but you still don't get to where he is by being an idiot. 

I posted about this before, but I’ll summarize again:  Every  single  time people claim that Trump is smart, it’s by implication.  Just like you did.  “He must be smart, just look at how rich he became” or some such example.  It is absolutely stunning that people don’t recognize him as an idiot.  It is, to me, his most obvious and pronounced trait.  

Instead of implication, try using direct observation:  Just listen to him speak (unscripted).  Does he ever say anything that only a smart person could say?  He rambles.  He rants.  He complains.  He calls his enemies names.  He never says anything that demonstrates knowledge, wisdom, vision, or expertise.  

To me this is the most fascinating part of politics, and it just gets more intense every campaign:  The way people convince themselves that their candidate is the polar opposite of what they actually are.  If you read 1984, the chapter about “Doublethink”, ….holy shit….it is profound.

I’ve talked to many Trump supporters who call him brilliant, ….when he’s obviously stupid.  They call him an Alpha male…..a guy with man-tits, a combover, and makeup.  A guy who Harris was able to toy with just by saying people were leaving his rallies early.  They actually think he’s religious… he doesn't know a thing about the Bible or the core tenets of Christianity.  They’ve convinced themselves he cares about people and is selfless, ….. he obviously only cares about himself……

Rogan’s first question was:  “what was it like right after the inauguration, actually being the POTUS?”  And Trump goes into a stream of consciousness about how opulent and luxurious the bedrooms in the White House were.

Mentioning the responsibility, a sense of duty, the trust imparted by the American people, the hope and pressure to do a good job on behalf of American people.  …..anything like that…..  It doesn’t even occur to him.  For nearly 3 hours, the guy talks about himself, complains about criticism towards himself, complains about other people doing “terrible jobs” and “destroying the country,” etc.

Like I said before, he’s faking it.  But even in faking it, he’s not smart enough to fake caring about other people.  It never occurs to him to praise other people or show gratitude or appreciation.  It never occurs to him to mention colleagues, coworkers, friends, his wife, or people that have helped him.  He never speaks of his confidence in Americans as people.  He never even hints that pride and the success of the country are dependent upon other people.  

He just makes nonsense threats that the country will literally “cease to exist” if he’s not elected.  I just find it remarkable that AF pilots, who ostensibly target “Humble, Approachable, Credible” as a measure of good leadership, can doublethink themselves into applying those traits to Trump.

But….as they say, my personal opinions and .50 cents will get you a can of Pepsi at the snack bar. So, I’m going to bow out of this until after the election.  I’m sure many will be happy about that.  But……for all the downvotes and videos of my mom and accusations of TDS, here’s the crazy thing:  If we were in a squadron together, we would get along great.  I know, because many of my closest military bros and lifelong friends are Trump supporters.  We rarely had spirited conversations about politics, but when we did, it never affected or soured the friendship.  More often we’d have conversations about family, flying, tactics, sports, etc.  

The internet is a cesspool.  I’m sure you guys are good solid bros, pilots, officers, and people.  (…..the jury is still out on HeloDude if I’m being completely honest….but maybe.)  

Cheers

[disgruntledemployee]

8 hours ago, gearhog said:

Good post, but I don't understand your arbitrary hangup on age 65. Why not 69? Age is an immutable characteristic, even moreso than race or gender, that isn't necessarily and indicator in itself of future performance. Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, but why the cognitive disparity?  Not one person will ever notice, nor even consider your reason for not voting for President.

Here's an analogy: When we went through pilot training, it was challenging (probably more for you). We had a deeply seated personal interest in the outcome. It meant everything. One day the FLT/CC said, "Here's the drop." Would you have even considered saying:

- "I don't like the choices. They all suck. I'm not filling out the dream sheet."

- "Not interested. The C-130/KC-135/B-52 are too old."

- "I trust all my classmates will make the right decision for me."

- "If I don't fill out a dream sheet, the AF will understand that I'm not happy, and give me better opportunities in the future."

And none of your classmates would have ever said "Wow, what brave and principled position. This guy is above the fray." The guy who would have gotten the AWACs is going to point and laugh at you.

The choices are what they are, and the likelihood that the process by which we arrive at these alternatives is going to get better in the future is low. Everybody wishes they had a better menu from which to choose. It's just fantasy. Anyway, that analogy was a bit of a reach but I hope you vote, brother. Cheers

Which airframe is Trump?  Harris?

[disgruntledemployee]

On 10/23/2024 at 7:01 PM, ClearedHot said:

Sonny?  Why thanks Pappy, great to see you in full blown triggered mode. 

Yeah, keep calling it triggered, it sounds so.... triggered.  You all and your dump on Harris sounds so.... triggered.

Trump is a dumbfuck piece of shit.  The interesting this is, a lot of you acknowledge that.  My question that started this hate fest and triggered quite a hornets nest was..  Who does Trump need to dishonor before you say, "Fuck that guy"?  And you all say I was triggered.  You're responses show quite the opposite.

Look dude, all my posts here have been about Trump and how he is despicable, not that you should vote Harris.  But I've been amazed by what seem like honorable military people dropping their values to support Trump.  I guess hate for Harris is higher than any of those values.  And remember, I asked here for people to shed Maga and vote for someone else in the primary. When Harris wins, the fault lies there.

Untriggeredly yours...

Out

[gearhog]

15 hours ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Which airframe is Trump?  Harris?

Trump: Old, loud, unsophisticated, shoots off at the mouth, takes enemy fire up close, they keep trying to get rid of him but he sticks around longer than anyone thought.

Harris: Remote controlled, annoying to be around, a threat to US citizens.

Goes down a lot.

Edited October 27 by gearhog

[tac airlifter]

23 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

  My question that started this hate fest and triggered quite a hornets nest was..  Who does Trump need to dishonor before you say, "Fuck that guy"? 

Bro, there isn't an answer to this question for me.  I'm not looking to be inspired by a politician, or to become emotionally involved about their opinions.  I'm voting for Trump only because I believe his policies will make my life and this country better.  I don't care if he shit talks John McCain or some retired general (the GWOT generals can't win and deserve derision anyway).

45 minutes ago, SpeedOfHeat said:

I’m sure you guys are good solid bros, pilots, officers, and people.  (…..the jury is still out on HeloDude if I’m being completely honest….but maybe.)  

Cheers

Well I agree with this & cheers back at you; I appreciate reading your opinions despite thinking them completely wrong and slightly retarded.  I'm sure we'd have a fun conversation over whiskey then go crush a mission and have each others back 🇺🇸

But you do have TDS 🙂

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, SpeedOfHeat said:

The internet is a cesspool.  I’m sure you guys are good solid bros, pilots, officers, and people.  (…..the jury is still out on HeloDude if I’m being completely honest….but maybe.)  

If a progressive doesn’t like me because of my values then I’ll consider that a compliment!

[ClearedHot]

15 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

But you do have TDS 🙂

Homer's TDS is so bad he is completely Tumbleweed.

[FourFans]

On 10/26/2024 at 3:31 PM, gearhog said:

Harris: ...  Goes down a lot.

Thanks for that visual.  I'll bet she doesn't.

[brabus]

58 minutes ago, FourFans said:

Thanks for that visual.  I'll bet she doesn't.

Her historical movement through the political ranks is not measured in capability and job success, but rather gallons ingested. You’re welcome for that visual.

[BashiChuni]

On 10/26/2024 at 3:07 PM, SpeedOfHeat said:

  If we were in a squadron together, we would get along great.  I know, because many of my closest military bros and lifelong friends are Trump supporters.  We rarely had spirited conversations about politics, but when we did, it never affected or soured the friendship.  More often we’d have conversations about family, flying, tactics, sports, etc.  

The internet is a cesspool.  I’m sure you guys are good solid bros, pilots, officers, and people.  (…..the jury is still out on HeloDude if I’m being completely honest….but maybe.)  

Cheers

cheers to that

and you're right about heloDude...anyone that flies helicopters has to be a little fucked up in the head!

[HeloDude]

7 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

cheers to that

and you're right about heloDude...anyone that flies helicopters has to be a little fucked up in the head!

Hey now!  
 

Side note—the left has gone full blown “Trump is Hitler and his supporters are Nazis”.  So if Trump wins, will the Dems in Congress (and Kamala as VP) certify the election of or someone they say is Hitler/a Nazi?  Honest question.

[mp5g]

10 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Hey now!  
 

Side note—the left has gone full blown “Trump is Hitler and his supporters are Nazis”.  So if Trump wins, will the Dems in Congress (and Kamala as VP) certify the election of or someone they say is Hitler/a Nazi?  Honest question.

They don’t really believe that. If they did, then people like Chuck Schumer wouldn’t have been sitting next to and getting roasted by Trump at the Al Smith Charity dinner a week and a half ago. 
 

It’s all fear mongering to drive up the vote. The disassociated voter doesn’t know policy positions or even that much about the daily interactions and gaffes, blunders, or mess ups of either candidate. But I’d venture to say that most everyone knows about Hitler and the Nazi’s (I say most because sometimes I’m still floored by people’s ignorance).  And most know that Hitler/Nazi’s = bad. If you can say it enough, people may start believing it because they’ve heard it 1,000x. 
 

My opinion at least, and we all know what opinions are like. 

[FourFans]

Regardless of rhetoric, does anyone think Kamala would actually certify a Trump victory, or would she find some way to get out of it? 

[cragspider]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

Regardless of rhetoric, does anyone think Kamala would actually certify a Trump victory, or would she find some way to get out of it? 

Ol Brandon did back in 17. If she doesn’t then she is again derelict in her Constitutional duties. I do think they Dems will find a way to object to the certification again from certain members, mostly the Rep from Md, Raskin. 

[BuddhaSixFour]

Yes. There will be some recounts and legal haggling like there always is, but at the end of the day, yes. 

[tac airlifter]

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

[TreeA10]

Same here. I'd like to see the data for Trump's Madison Square Garden rally.

My mother told me that you are the company you keep.  6000+ Antifa/BLM/Pro-Palestinian protestors is not exactly good company.

[M2]

On 10/17/2024 at 8:03 AM, M2 said:

We are fucked.  It's now just a matter of how fucked we want to be!

I still stand by this statement from two weeks ago...

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

I'm not saying there's not some fuckery going on, but that doesn't really pass the smell test. Why would you have to bus 11,000 people from Georgia? Why would the distribution be tilted that way?

 

I absolutely believe the part where most of the people at these rallies are the same people that go to all the rallies. I'm guessing the percentage of repeat attendees is lower at a trump rally, but still very significant.

[BuddhaSixFour]

5 minutes of internet snooping, and that guy’s Linked In is for a 40-year career in sleeping commercial real estate and some buyout stuff of mom and pop medical practices. So, let’s consider the options…

A) This guy was some sort of CIA asset California doing deep data analysis and he’s spent a ton of money buying what would be very expensive data if it’s even available. Now, he’s coming out of the shadows to share his critical insights about the election. 

B) Some schmuck lawyer is bored and realizes he can make shit up on X and get a ton of attention that the commercial real estate world doesn’t give him. He’s making it up, but probably takes some “ends justify the means” rationale.

C) Someone creating a bot account (or probably hundreds), happens to scrape his photo and name off of Linked In and has been using it to spew garbage that some people are lapping up. 

My money is not on Option A. 

[Desayuno]

14 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

From his X profile. Sounds like a weirdo.

 

My partners and I have been lifetime data scientists. We own the digital ID of every mobile device/computer in the U.S. and have indexed and archived every IP address in the world. Our extensive experience in big and deep data, including geotracking and geolocation makes our ….yada yada

[arg]

There are vidios all over the net of people being bused into her events. The latest ones are the mass exodus, while K was speaking, when people relized Beyonce wasn't going to do a show. They looked like a herd of goats that found a hole in the fence.

[TreeA10]

Reminds me of the idiots arrested in Georgia protesting the police training facility referred to as "cop city.". Almost all the people arrested were from places far from Atlanta. Who pays for their traveling and lodging expenses?  They obviously don't have a job if they can spend time playing protestor.  The money is coming from somewhere to support the chaos.