The Next President is...

[gearhog]

  On 11/3/2024 at 11:16 PM, HeloDude said:

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

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There will be no clear winner.

[lloyd christmas]

  On 11/3/2024 at 11:16 PM, HeloDude said:

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

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Not a prediction just an observation.  I’m not big on social media. I only have a FB account.  I started the account years ago when I taught at the FTU.  It was a tool to keep in touch with my students including my international students. I am also a military brat so I have connected with folks from my childhood who live all around the country in places I lived growing up.  I see their opinions on this election.  I see the questions they ask and the people that respond to their posts. I see an overwhelming push for Trump.  It could mean something or I could be way off base.  Again, not a prediction just an observation.  

I also recognize that the media is the largest part of the machine.  The media arm of the machine wants ratings and money. They have no interest in reporting the truth.  They will frame this election as “tied” to get ratings whether it’s leaning one way or the other.  Gotta have people glued to their feeds/TV.

 

[Smokin]

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

[BashiChuni]

i got betting money on kamala at +145 and +170

[Ebony zer]

  On 11/4/2024 at 3:02 AM, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

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Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

[M2]

P'Nut the Squirrel's death will be Kamala's demise! 




 

[arg]

[disgruntledemployee]

  On 11/4/2024 at 3:02 AM, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

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Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval. 

Edited November 4, 2024 by disgruntledemployee
To add Dr Strange

[Vito]

 Big gender gap, women and young voters leaning to Harris, Men, to Trump. Reminds me of this scene in “The Godfather”. Women and kids rarely pay the price for dumb decisions. Men always pay the consequences and have to clean up the mess.

 

[Smokin]

  On 11/4/2024 at 4:56 PM, Ebony zer said:

Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

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Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off.

  On 11/4/2024 at 10:11 PM, disgruntledemployee said:

Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval.

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You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote.  "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment).  I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win.

Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.

Edited November 5, 2024 by Smokin

[disgruntledemployee]

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:07 AM, Smokin said:

Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off.

You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote.  "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment).  I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win.

Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.

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Yes, 1 vote per state.  If it goes to March, it's not the old VP, but rather the new VP selected by the Senate.  So, there is a slim chance that Vance could be Prez based off a tie, the new house is stalemate, and the anticipated R majority for the Senate picking Vance as VP .  IF all of that were to happen, look for Trump to bash the shit out of the process, slam Vance for taking the job, then ask to be Vance's VP.

[gearhog]

Whatever happens tomorrow, we all need to remember… it’s Russia’s fault.

🤪

 

[BashiChuni]

RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA

 

[Trogdor]

Or the Supreme Court decides it… can’t imagine what’ll burn down if that happened.

[HuggyU2]

[disgruntledemployee]

  On 11/5/2024 at 5:08 PM, Trogdor said:

Or the Supreme Court decides it… can’t imagine what’ll burn down if that happened.

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https://flvoicenews.com/author/eric-daugherty/

I thought we don't trust the media, and in this case, a student from Florida Gulf Coast U.

In a Rumsfeldian voice, You don't go to an election with the Electorial College you want, you go with the college you got.

[HeloDude]

While I still believe the slight advantage goes to Trump, and as I said before, I won’t be surprised if either one wins…but…if there’s a 20 point swing towards Trump in Georgia among independents compared to 2020, then that says something.

 

[Clark Griswold]

Yup…

https://redstate.com/brandon_morse/2024/11/05/hilarious-video-uses-ai-to-expose-what-democrats-are-really-saying-when-they-talk-about-democracy-n2181596

[BashiChuni]

[disgruntledemployee]

Since he's in the lead, I'm drinking this.

[ClearedHot]

its over, Trump wins.

[dream big]

  On 11/6/2024 at 6:30 AM, ClearedHot said:

its over, Trump wins.

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You win! Was just about to respond to the original prompt of this thread from 8 years ago! Still waiting for some type of shinanigans. 

[cragspider]

  On 11/6/2024 at 7:27 AM, dream big said:

You win! Was just about to respond to the original prompt of this thread from 8 years ago! Still waiting for some type of shinanigans. 

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Oh it will happen, what it will be is yet  to be seen yet. 
Thankfully we can now be unburdened by what has not been.  

[tac airlifter]

Reddit very reasonable right now

 

[Lord Ratner]

  On 11/6/2024 at 6:30 AM, ClearedHot said:

its over, Trump wins.

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But it's so much more than that. First (R) president to win the popular vote in two decades. An indisputable electoral college victory. Huge gains within minority groups. Retaking the Senate and most likely holding the House. 

 

It's the closest thing to a mandate a presidential candidate can win in the modern era. This will greatly reduce "the resistance," especially from within the conservative sphere as many will be forced to reevaluate their future and strategy. 

 

It's still a tragedy that we're in a point in history where Donald Trump is the leader of the free world, but it's as good as the tragedy could have gone.

 

We're still on a collision course with fiscal and monetary doom, but perhaps we can at least put out some fires.