The Next President is...

[Sua Sponte]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

This is one of the most epic economic self-owns in history.  I've never seen the right and left so united against anything, but when you propose possibly the most retarded economic plan ever, I guess that's what happens.  I'm so glad we're tariffing Vietnam into oblivion to bring back all those quality t-shirt sweatshop manufacturing jobs. Just happy I'm a long way from retirement and can use it as an opportunity to buy the dip.  

 

[Pooter]

26 minutes ago, SocialD said:

Maybe some day, those shouting the loudest about what will and what will not work, will actually fix the economic situation we're in.  But from where I'm sitting, they've done nothing but 3x our national debt in the last three decades.  

I just don’t see how starting a worldwide trade war that tanks our markets and makes virtually every product more expensive fixes our debt problem. And the republicans just passed a continuing resolution that failed to cut spending in any meaningful way so I have a hard time believing this is some all-aspect strategy to attack the national debt. 

I will grant that trumps tariff plan is at least different. But so is shooting yourself in the dick.

[SocialD]

5 minutes ago, Pooter said:

I just don’t see how starting a worldwide trade war that tanks our markets and makes virtually every product more expensive fixes our debt problem. And the republicans just passed a continuing resolution that failed to cut spending in any meaningful way so I have a hard time believing this is some all-aspect strategy to attack the national debt. 

 

Quite frankly, idk either.  But doing what we have been doing clearly wasn't working.  So do we just keep doing that?  My guess is they hope it will bring people to the table.  Big gamble, then again, maybe it pays off big.  Time will tell, but I'm not going to cry wolf because the market hits the same level we were in last summer.  I say that as someone who isn't all that fond of 47.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, Pooter said:

I will grant that trumps tariff plan is at least different. But so is shooting yourself in the dick.

 

 

Maybe just cut it off, that seems to have become popular over the last few years.  

[Pooter]

3 hours ago, SocialD said:

But doing what we have been doing clearly wasn't working.  So do we just keep doing that?  

No. But you can change course without going full retard.  If you want to attack the debt you cut spending in a meaningful way like they were *kindof* trying to do with the doge stuff.. and leave trade policy tf alone. We are not getting ripped off by Vietnam because we have a trade deficit with them. We are a rich country. They are a poor country. They make stuff for super cheap. We then buy that stuff for super cheap and have more money left over for other things. It is a win-win. Trump is under this insane misimpression that voluntary trade is a zero-sum game where there has to be a winner and a loser. And somehow since the word "deficit" sounds bad, we are the loser?? As others have pointed out, you have a trade deficit with your local grocery store, or your dry cleaner, or literally every service you pay for ever. So are you being ripped off when you voluntarily engage in a market transaction to buy something that someone else made?

Not to mention we're tariffing countries who we have a trade surplus with...  please make it make sense

I think tariffs are almost always stupid, but I would be slightly more willing to take this ride if it seemed like there was any semblance of a coherent plan. The reason the market is tanking is because there is no plan and we've been in a constant state of will-he-won't-he for the the last two months. If we actually want to "bring manufacturing back to the US" businesses need some stability and predictability before they go sink millions and billions into new domestic production capacity. But they can't do that when the president is flip-flopping on his own policies and creating random new carve outs and exemptions on an hourly basis.  Because who knows, trump could use these tariffs to get some concessions from a few countries and then dump the policy entirely in a few months.. well inside the turn circle of setting up a new production line.

In summary:

-you can address the debt without dumpstering world trade

-trade deficits are not us being ripped off

-blanket tariffs are bad and dumb

-the market wants stability, not constant whiplash

-if there is a plan, fucking communicate it

 

Edited Friday at 04:23 AM by Pooter

[M2]

Trump administration fires director of National Security Agency/Cyber Command

The Trump administration has fired the director and deputy director of the National Security Agency, the United States’ powerful cyber intelligence bureau, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation, members of the Senate and House intelligence committees and two former officials familiar with the matter.

The dismissal of Gen. Timothy Haugh, who also leads US Cyber Command — the military’s offensive and defensive cyber unit — is a major shakeup of the US intelligence community which is navigating significant changes in the first two months of the Trump administration. Wendy Noble, Haugh’s deputy at NSA, was also removed, according to the former officials and lawmakers.

The top Democrats on the Senate and House intelligence committee, Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, denounced the firing of Haugh, who served in the roles since February 2024, in statements on Thursday night...

(Full article at title link)

I've had a couple of opportunities to meet with Gen Haugh when he was the 16AF/CC.   He was an articulate, dedicated and experienced leader in the field of cybersecurity and intelligence, and I cannot fathom how his dismissal will benefit our national security.

[Sua Sponte]

It’s not supposed to benefit our national security, he wasn’t a puppet and that’s why Trump fired him. 

[M2]

On 3/19/2025 at 10:16 AM, M2 said:

Interesting, it appears Trump is giving up the SACEUR position after the US has filled it (STS) for 75 years...

Trump Intends to abandon US command of NATO forces in Europe

It appears Cavoli wants to be the next four-star fired by Trump!!

A non-American as Supreme Allied Commander of NATO? That’d be ‘problematic,’ Cavoli says

"It would put us in a position where, in an Article 5 [mutual defense] situation, we could have for the first time since the First World War, large numbers of American troops under non-US command."

But it's OK if the other 31 countries are under US command?

So the US administration wants less involvement in European problems, but still wants to dictate everything?

Check. 

[HeloDude]

20 hours ago, Pooter said:

This is one of the most epic economic self-owns in history.  I've never seen the right and left so united against anything, but when you propose possibly the most retarded economic plan ever, I guess that's what happens.  I'm so glad we're tariffing Vietnam into oblivion to bring back all those quality t-shirt sweatshop manufacturing jobs. Just happy I'm a long way from retirement and can use it as an opportunity to buy the dip.  

Update on your Vietnam tariff discussion:

https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/vietnam-wants-to-cut-tariffs-down-to-zero-after-us-reciprocal-tariffs-trump-says-19584921.htm

[SocialD]

15 hours ago, Pooter said:

No. But you can change course without going full retard. 

 

True, but when were the smartest men going to change course? They've had multiple administrations to do so (including Trump 1.0). Were they just going to keep talking about it, or actually doing something about it?    A few more debt ceiling increases?  After another 36T in debt?   When our economy collapsed under the weight of our own debt?  *Insert bench skeleton waiting meme here.*   

 

Also, if tariffs don't work, then other countries should have no problem ending them if we agree to end them as well. 

Edited Friday at 08:22 PM by SocialD

[17D_guy]

4 hours ago, M2 said:

Trump administration fires director of National Security Agency/Cyber Command

The Trump administration has fired the director and deputy director of the National Security Agency, the United States’ powerful cyber intelligence bureau, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation, members of the Senate and House intelligence committees and two former officials familiar with the matter.

The dismissal of Gen. Timothy Haugh, who also leads US Cyber Command — the military’s offensive and defensive cyber unit — is a major shakeup of the US intelligence community which is navigating significant changes in the first two months of the Trump administration. Wendy Noble, Haugh’s deputy at NSA, was also removed, according to the former officials and lawmakers.

The top Democrats on the Senate and House intelligence committee, Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, denounced the firing of Haugh, who served in the roles since February 2024, in statements on Thursday night...

(Full article at title link)

I've had a couple of opportunities to meet with Gen Haugh when he was the 16AF/CC.   He was an articulate, dedicated and experienced leader in the field of cybersecurity and intelligence, and I cannot fathom how his dismissal will benefit our national security.

Worked for him when I was in CYBERCOM. Good dude, mostly good ideas and really cared about the mission and the people. His bad idea(s) were trying to solve a problem he was put in, and the didn't ever take effect.

I can't speak on the CSAF, CNO, VCSAF getting fired with a personal anecdote. But Haugh knew his shit, was a cyber "operator" (stop laughing), and cared about his people.

This is a massive loss for warfighing in the "new" domain. And if this is because he wouldn't co-sign splitting up NSA and CYBERCOM then whoever replaces him to do that is setting back our capes at minimum a decade, if not more.

[SurelySerious]

Update on your Vietnam tariff discussion:
https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/vietnam-wants-to-cut-tariffs-down-to-zero-after-us-reciprocal-tariffs-trump-says-19584921.htm

If they cut their tariffs on imported US goods, that’ll help them not pay tax on the…nothing they buy from the US.

[Banzai]

You guys think it’s odd that FoxNews doesn’t have a single story on the market and removed their stock ticker? Or is that how fair and balanced news looks?

[HeloDude]

43 minutes ago, Banzai said:

You guys think it’s odd that FoxNews doesn’t have a single story on the market and removed their stock ticker? Or is that how fair and balanced news looks?

Not a “single” story…yet I just went to their website.  But I’m sure you’ll have some excuse to somehow say you were correct:

[brabus]

19 hours ago, Pooter said:

businesses need some stability and predictability before they go sink millions and billions into new domestic production capacity

So far this year businesses have committed to ~ $1.5T over the next 4 years and that number goes to ~ $3T when you add in the 10 yr UAE commitment. This isn’t a disagreement with the overall premise of your post, but frankly I’m in wait-and-see mode because it is not the “sky is falling” scenario that people are screaming about. Though I do understand some of your points and the long term direction of big payoff (or free fall) is unclear. 

[SurelySerious]

[SurelySerious]

[Pooter]

11 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Update on your Vietnam tariff discussion:

https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/vietnam-wants-to-cut-tariffs-down-to-zero-after-us-reciprocal-tariffs-trump-says-19584921.htm

Art of the deal. Thank goodness we have such a shrewd negotiator at the helm. In other news.. the rest of the indo pacific including two of our strongest allies in the region Japan and Korea have vowed to strengthen economic ties with China.
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-agree-promote-regional-trade-trump-tariffs-loom-2025-03-30/

Sick. But at least our shitty t-shirt prices won’t go up.

Edited yesterday at 07:01 AM by Pooter

[Smokin]

Stocks are on sale, time to buy!

[HeloDude]

6 hours ago, Pooter said:

Art of the deal. Thank goodness we have such a shrewd negotiator at the helm. In other news.. the rest of the indo pacific including two of our strongest allies in the region Japan and Korea have vowed to strengthen economic ties with China.
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-agree-promote-regional-trade-trump-tariffs-loom-2025-03-30/

Sick. But at least our shitty t-shirt prices won’t go up.

But, but…

So you cared enough to specifically mention Vietnam a couple days ago, but now it doesn’t matter to you since it doesn’t support your original argument. 

For the record, I don’t know how Trump’s tariff strategy is going to work.  He has a little over a year to show the rest of us that it worked, and if not, I imagine the GOP will do pretty bad in 2026.  And if Trump still can’t turn it around by 2028, then the Dems will most likely be fully in charge by a healthy margin, until the next crisis occurs.

I’m older enough to remember in 1993 when the Dems thought they were unstoppable, but then got a huge reality check in the 1994 election, but then Clinton still won handily in 1996.  Similar to what happened in 2008…Dems thought they were unstoppable, but then 2010 and 2014 (and of course 2016) happened.  So BL:  We’ll have to wait and see.

Edited yesterday at 01:59 PM by HeloDude

[SocialD]

14 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

 

 

 

This screenshot is an example of how some have the ability to create some insane wealth.  Choose wisely.  

[Sua Sponte]

21 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 

This screenshot is an example of how some have the ability to create some insane wealth.  Choose wisely.  

Yeah, they're called billionaires. This was their intended plan. Next up, claim the government doesn't work, so let's privatize it. 

[SocialD]

2 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

Yeah, they're called billionaires. This was their intended plan. Next up, claim the government doesn't work, so let's privatize it. 

 

 

Plenty on here have the opportunity to capitalize on this opportunity.  The Covid dip was a big help in working toward my "number."  This is just another opportunity to take advantage where you can.  

[SurelySerious]

[SurelySerious]

[Smokin]

This whole "no taxation without representation" thing seems to be extraordinarily poorly thought through.  The President is an elected official representing the entire US, so if he decides to implement tariffs, what part of that is "without representation"?  There are plenty of things to complain about with tariffs, but trying to claim that it is taxation without representation seems to me to be willful ignorance of the worst type.

I'm very much on the fence with the tariffs overall.  The automatic reciprocal tariffs seem to be a no brainier and I'm mildly surprised that isn't a continual policy regardless of who is in power.  One interesting take I read that I think is very possible, is that this is attempt to reign in our national debt.  A significant amount of our debt comes up for payment or refinance next year and with interest rates higher than they've been since our debt skyrocketed, it is only going to get worse.  One way the President can influence interest rates is economic stability.  Instability drives more investors to hedge their money in T-bills, which will drive down their rate, which will drive down interest rates.  At the same time the tariffs will likely increase production at home which will eventually drive economic growth which will increase the tax collected.  Certainly a gamble if that is the play but not out of line with Trump's past actions.  The flip side of the coin is we must find ways to reduce our spending and very few seem to be genuinely interested in that.  DOGE has fixed some leaky faucets that needed to be fixed, but meanwhile we have a couple spigots out back that are on full blast.