The Next President is...

[FourFans]

17 minutes ago, SpeedOfHeat said:

Blah blah blah

...what was it's tow, toe, or trope...
"command of the English language he has..."  - Yoda

Do you have an original thought you'd like to share?   Just one?

[SurelySerious]

12 minutes ago, slackline said:

You forgot that they will also say the onus is on you to prove the science... Lazy way to get out of looking anything up. For what? Is it some moral principle of debate they're adhering to?


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The onus is on those making such a hypothesis to prove it. Stop acting like this is a religion based solely on belief. 

[SpeedOfHeat]

12 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

I read a bunch and know a decent amount about computer modeling; it’s how I’m skeptical of pinning everything on humans in the US with models trained on poor data while simultaneously giving a pass to China and India. Airplanes are pretty real; man-made global warming is an unprovable theory. You don’t have a control system to contrast against, and the current computer models are all recognizing humans as the cause because they’re incredibly limited. But you’re an arrogant troll only interested in your religion so no, this won’t matter. 
 

Edit: also, you should read the rational optimist by Matthew Ridley. Every time someone makes some grim global prediction, it works out. Stop freaking out and live your life. 

 

6 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Hey now, socialism is a religion based solely on belief too...we're still waiting on history to provide a supportable, functional, and prosperous example...yet half our country buys it...with no proof at all!

Why demand proof of a completely debunkable hypothesis is the face of that?

And there you have it ladies and gentlemen.  Right on cue.

Even when you tell them how predictable and off topic their responses are, they simply can’t help themselves.  

-Computer modeling has flaws, therefore we can just ignore all the other sources of evidence.  “The TACAN is malfunctioning.....<shrug’s shoulder’s>  .....I guess there’s just no way we can determine our position on this sortie.”

-China

-AGW is unprovable

-You're a troll

-It’s a Religion

-Stop freaking out and live your life

-Socialism

-Scientific data/evidence (ha, just kidding)

Lessons learned (or relearned):  

1) Dunning-Kruger is real 
2) You will not change anyone’s opinion online
3) Critical thinking skills are lacking, even in college graduates

And to reiterate one last time, ask yourself periodically over the course of your life about this.  Ask if it was shown to be a hoax or that the data was all wrong.  The answer will be NO.

[SurelySerious]

Just now, SpeedOfHeat said:

 

And there you have it ladies and gentlemen.  Right on cue.

Even when you tell them how predictable and off topic their responses are, they simply can’t help themselves.  

-Computer modeling has flaws, therefore we can just ignore all the other sources of evidence.  “The TACAN is malfunctioning.....<shrug’s shoulder’s>  .....I guess there’s just no way we can determine our position on this sortie.”

-China

-AGW is unprovable

-You're a troll

-It’s a Religion

-Stop freaking out and live your life

-Socialism

-Scientific data/evidence (ha, just kidding)

Lessons learned (or relearned):  

1) Dunning-Kruger is real 
2) You will not change anyone’s opinion online
3) Critical thinking skills are lacking, even in college graduates

And to reiterate one last time, ask yourself periodically over the course of your life about this.  Ask if it was shown to be a hoax or that the data was all wrong.  The answer will be NO.

Sure, Jan. 

[FlyingWolf]

21 minutes ago, SpeedOfHeat said:

 

1) Dunning-Kruger is real 

Yep, and its difficult for people to really know where they are on the curve.

 

I don’t think anyone has ever done more to amplify my generally skeptical attitude on any topic more than SoH’s emotive postings....

 

So much so that I’m skeptical of his authenticity.

[SurelySerious]

For sure. 

[HossHarris]

9 minutes ago, FlyingWolf said:

So much so that I’m skeptical of his authenticity.

I don’t know if that’s a battle worth picking ....

[DosXX]

 

[Lord Ratner]

5 hours ago, SpeedOfHeat said:

—You cannot be Group 1, 2, and 3.  They are mutually exclusive by definition.  That aside, here’s my response to your points:

—It’s the same finality and confidence that’s applied to dozens of scientific discoveries.  Ones that you accept without question.  The fact that there are tectonic plates, that the earth orbits the sun, and that the earth is round.  It is true that the scientific method is open to new discovery and therefore cannot ever claim absolute certainty.  But there are things we know.... things like the aforementioned that we accept as scientific fact because they are demonstrable, observable, etc.. There is ongoing research and debate on many aspects of AGW.  Some results, findings, and predictions have been and will be proven wrong.  That’s fine.  Our knowledge and understanding is evolving.  But you act like because there are unknowns, doubt, or debate In certain specific areas, that somehow means the ENTIRE phenomenon is invalid.
 

—Type 1.  The amount of evidence that global temp is rising is overwhelming.  Satellite data is one source.  There are dozens others.  When you’re flying, you can tell your position by several means:  tacan, gps, vor, your eyeballs, etc.  Each system has flaws and margins of error, but when viewed in totality leave no reasonable doubt as to your position.  The ‘confluence of evidence’ behind climate change is similar.  If you don’t know about all the independent fields of study that converge on the same answer, there’s nothing I can do for you.  It’s on you to do the reading.

Type 2–There’s no scientific ‘theory of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.’  It just is one.  We are filling our atmosphere with it (and others), while simultaneously engaging in land clearing and deforestation.

 Type 3— I can tell this is your go-to “gotcha” on this subject.  Except it’s a hypothetical.  And a really poor one, because you’ve embedded the only possible answer in the question.  If, given your hypothetical, GW is 100% uninfluenced by humans, than of course the answer is that we don’t attempt to fight against it.... you just said we cannot influence it.

But more importantly, it’s a poor hypothetical because the evidence demonstrating AGW is so strong.  What if.... hear me out now.... hypothetical.... what if the earth is really flat.  ...Well, it’s not.  It’s just not.  So most people won’t waste their time contemplating such a question.

— “That’s not science, it’s religion.”  Ugh.  This is such a tired and predictable trope.  This is the denier’s Alamo, where they inevitably retreat to when they’ve exhausted all the other standard logical fallacies.

 Of course some people blindly tow whatever partisan line their party tells them to, but for people that have actually done the research, it’s not a religion.  It’s the opposite.  Because there’s so much evidence, there’s no faith required.  And you’ll notice that only one side of this conversation ever uses the word “believe/belief.”

Ok, it's pretty clear you don't have anything to go on here, just repeating what you've been told. There's so much evidence, because there just is! Everyone agrees. Well spoiler alert, there's a lot of evidence to the contrary, pointed out by a wide range of involved professionals, not just pilots online.

We know the Earth is round because we have observed it, and any theories to the contrary are easily and repeatedly disapproven. Further, we can predict physics outcomes based on the round Earth theory that occur every time. Not so with global warming. To compare the two is gross ignorance of the science.

 

The point of the hypothetical is that if we wouldn't stop nature from doing it, why do we stop mankind from doing it. The fact you consider these types of questions to be simple or irrelevant displays the lack of thought you've put into it. There's no nuance in your position, which generally indicates that it's an adopted position.

 

Anyways, best of luck. You'll just stop talking about it one day, rather than issue a mea culpa. Global cooling, overpopulation, global warming, peak oil, acid rain... Global catastrophe is a natural human interest. It just never seems to pan out.

 

Also, I'm not a Republican you walnut. Don't project your own inadequacies on others just because they disagree with you.

[Lord Ratner]

4 hours ago, slackline said:

You forgot that they will also say the onus is on you to prove the science... Lazy way to get out of looking anything up. For what? Is it some moral principle of debate they're adhering to?


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On the contrary, it's on the scientists pushing the theory. When their models are capable of accurately predicting the future temperature changes, and the associated effects, then it will be "settled" or close to it. As of now the track record is *terrible.* 

 

This is a fundamental concept. 

[dream big]

Let’s make a separate climate change thread.  Back to Doe Biden and Orange Man please. 

[TreeA10]

Waiting for someone to call someone else a lying dog faced pony soldier and then it's game on. 

[FLEA]

2 hours ago, TreeA10 said:

Waiting for someone to call someone else a lying dog faced pony soldier and then it's game on. 

"Did you just call me a jive turkey?"

[brickhistory]

Biden's 15 Sep gaffe about "black women stocking grocery store shelves" is getting more internet time in the last couple of days.

In response, his campaign says he will begin writing notes to voters to explain his points.

 

 

I am not making this up.

[Sim]

On 9/29/2020 at 8:46 PM, Lord Ratner said:

If that's accurate, it explains why Obama never stepped into the controversy.

 

I hope it's not accurate

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/breaking-dni-declassifies-handwritten-notes-from-john-brennan-2016-cia-referral-on-clinton-campaigns-collusion-operation/

 

On Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe declassified and released to Congress handwritten notes from former CIA Director John Brennan as well as a CIA investigative referral to James Comey and Peter Strzok requesting that they investigate Russian knowledge of Hillary Clinton's anti-Trump collusion smear operation.

[jrizzell]

Waiting for someone to call someone else a lying dog faced pony soldier and then it's game on. 

Easy there Corn Pop...he’s a bad dude

[Pooter]

I kindof hope climate change wipes us all out a-la speed of heat's ramblings so we don't have to suffer through whichever dysfunctional administration wins next month

[filthy_liar]

On 10/2/2020 at 4:39 AM, Mark1 said:

Jesus Christ, we're ing doomed.  We really do deserve 2 candidates of the caliber we have in front of us if this is the kind of logic that's being used by the average voter to decide where their vote should go.

I mean, in any election this would be a absurd statement.  It's plainly obvious why the incumbent would take a rosy view and the challenger a pessimistic one.  But in this specific case, this logic deserves a facepalm of epic proportions.  The current incumbent was a challenger 4 years ago and his god damned mantra was "Make America Great Again", implying that America was no longer great.  Maybe the hat that he wore with the mantra emblazoned on it burned your retinas to the point where you couldn't see it?

Every 4 years there's two more manufactured candidates just putting on a theater show during the campaign.  The script is written by a team of sociologists and PR people and they all just hope that their horse can rattle of bullshit platitudes for the 9 month campaign without stepping on any run-ending landmines.  Landmines in this case being a metaphor for making some social faux pas that has no bearing whatsoever on somebody's ability to run a country.  And the worst part is that the voters know they're watching contrived theater, and yet, instead of demanding reality they just get wrapped up in the details of the storyline and cast votes as if the show they're watching was reality.

Can we just start voting based on who seems more human before this country goes the way of Rome?  I'd ask for decision making at a more sophisticated level than that, but...baby steps.

And before anybody tries to decide who's more human between Trump and Biden, I'm talking about through the whole process.  Neither of these idiots would have ever been on a primary stage if it required a Turing test to qualify.

Hey lab partner, thought you could read between the lines.  Its the internet, no worries. Its not just the candidate, it's the entire party.  America is ed up. That's the liberal message. 

[dream big]

9 hours ago, Pooter said:

I kindof hope climate change wipes us all out a-la speed of heat's ramblings so we don't have to suffer through whichever dysfunctional administration wins next month

I guess you don’t want us out of Afghanistan and Syria? 

[brickhistory]

20 hours ago, Sim said:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/breaking-dni-declassifies-handwritten-notes-from-john-brennan-2016-cia-referral-on-clinton-campaigns-collusion-operation/

 

On Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe declassified and released to Congress handwritten notes from former CIA Director John Brennan as well as a CIA investigative referral to James Comey and Peter Strzok requesting that they investigate Russian knowledge of Hillary Clinton's anti-Trump collusion smear operation.

The then Director of the CIA briefed the then President, Vice-President, Natl Security Advisor, White House Chief of Staff, et al, about how US intelligence agencies had picked up Russian communications about Hillary using a phony report to discredit Trump and deflect from her home-brew server issues.

The then Director of the CIA and then Director of the FBI used that phony dossier as the basis to literally spy on a duly elected President.

Scandal-free Administration...

Imagine if the current Administration had done things like that.  It would be 24/7 non-stop just as it was when Trump was on the defensive about the fake charges.  

But now?  Crickets.

So the GS12 of today, not seeing any of the higher-ups do a perp walk after misusing the instruments of national power for direct political gain, draws the lesson of "there's no consequences."

And becomes the SES/SIS of tomorrow and does it even worse.

All fun and games when it's used against the "other side."

Not so much when used against you.

 

A nation of laws or not.  Pretty simple equation.

[slackline]

The then Director of the CIA briefed the then President, Vice-President, Natl Security Advisor, White House Chief of Staff, et al, about how US intelligence agencies had picked up Russian communications about Hillary using a phony report to discredit Trump and deflect from her home-brew server issues.
The then Director of the CIA and then Director of the FBI used that phony dossier as the basis to literally spy on a duly elected President.
Scandal-free Administration...
Imagine if the current Administration had donethings like that.  It would be 24/7 non-stop just as it was when Trump was on the defensive about the fake charges.  
But now?  Crickets.
So the GS12 of today, not seeing any of the higher-ups do a perp walk after misusing the instruments of national power for direct political gain, draws the lesson of "there's no consequences."
And becomes the SES/SIS of tomorrow and does it even worse.
All fun and games when it's used against the "other side."
Not so much when used against you.
 
A nation of laws or not.  Pretty simple equation.

If all this is true, you’re right, it’s a disgusting abuse and she should be punished.

However, did you read the rest of your own post? Do any of you Trump fans read the stuff you write when you talk about how different it would be if it had happened under a Republican watch? Have you guys just been living under a rock because it is literally 24/7 anytime any of these bozos do anything, and the other side immediately makes the same ridiculous claim you just did: the other side wouldn’t put up with it, and they would cry foul!

Does it ever get tiring ignoring the faults of your own party? That goes for both Ds and Rs. That crap is why we’re going to be hard pressed to heal the divide in this country. No one ever does anything wrong in their own eyes even when they’re doing the same crap as the other team. They just call it by a different name and then it’s ok...


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[17D_guy]

22 minutes ago, slackline said:

Does it ever get tiring ignoring the faults of your own party? That goes for both Ds and Rs. That crap is why we’re going to be hard pressed to heal the divide in this country. No one ever does anything wrong in their own eyes even when they’re doing the same crap as the other team. They just call it by a different name and then it’s ok...

Yea, this part gets super old.  I remember when the Sen Maj Leader Reid dropped the nuke to get judges through...and the R's jumped up and down.  Then the R's do it (since the the D's opened the hole) and "it's a travesty against the honorable institution of the Senate, Constitution, God, et al."

 Also...who the fuck is saying on here, with a straight face, that Obama didn't have scandals?  The gun-running, Iran, Pred strikes of dubious value (at best) are the big ones I can think of just off the top of my head.  Lets not act like Trump's just getting a "rough deal" from the press...he's wants it that way so he can look like some kind of fighter for the people, but only his people.

I also have no idea wtf is going on with this latest Russia stuff.  Since Trump's busy fucking up his campaign by giving COVID to everyone, it's not really in any news that I've seen.

Edited October 7, 2020 by 17D_guy

[brickhistory]

If I wasn't/haven't been clear, my apologies.

The misuse of national agencies for domestic purposes isn't about "my side" or "your side."  My intent, on every post related to this topic, is that if bad things occurred and were directed by the very highest in an agency or in the White House, then there needs to be accountability and punishments for those proven to have committed crimes.  Otherwise, it will only continue and become worse because underlings will see that no harm came to leadership that misused the system, so why shouldn't they when they move up in the food chain.

If Obama and Company did it and walks with no consequences, then most likely Trump, his successor, and future Administrations are very likely to do the same.  

Which is against many, many laws designed to safeguard my, and your constitutional rights for merely being an American citizen.

An unpunished misuse of national power against our own is not ok and should be punished, regardless of what political affliation.

But the same media that was leading the anti-Trump charge, often times at the behest of those same Administration officials who were doing shenanigans, are either ignoring these revelations or actively downplaying/spinning them differently.  You do not see much coverage of this on the networks, or the Post, or the NY Times, or the LA Times, ad nauseaum.

 

Mud slinging in politics is one thing.  "Orange Man bad" vs. "Sleepy Joe" is fine if stupid.

Mr. FBI/CIA/NSA man doing things against fellow Americans for political gain is not.

 

edited to add:  I don't think Hillary is to blame for this fiasco.  As much as I think she should've been prosecuted for her server complete with multiple TS/SCI/SAP/STO email traffic to/from her, the misuse of the FBI/CIA, probably others (remember ADM Rogers went to the FISA Court during this.  What he reported hasn't been made public, but the Obama Administration mounted a campaign to fire him, then backed off suddenly), was at least at the Director of various agencies, if not the White House.  Remember Susan Rice's infamous last day in office email to self, "The President directed that everything on this matter be done by the book."

 

BTW, I don't belong to any party.  I quit the GOP in disgust in 2016.

Edited October 7, 2020 by brickhistory

[TreeA10]

16 hours ago, jrizzell said:

Easy there Corn Pop...he’s a bad dude

Now you've gone done it now by calling me Corn Pop.  Come on, man, what's wrong with you?

[brickhistory]

So does "triggered" come into the realm of "phrasing?"