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disgruntledemployee

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I believe in being fair and giving credit when it is due.  Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi is now dead I am proud President Biden had the stones to send our young men and women into harms way t

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Complete and utter malarkey. ONE mainstream network went after Obama, Foxnews, some of it unwarranted Political tripe, some of it valid.  Meanwhile ALL of the remaining mainstream networks suppor

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@VMFA187 Did a great job of raising important questions and issues, let me try to calmly pitch in because I simply don't understand how a rationale person agrees with much of what Biden has done AND m

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lloyd christmas Gray Beard

lloyd christmas

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1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

Not a prediction just an observation.  I’m not big on social media. I only have a FB account.  I started the account years ago when I taught at the FTU.  It was a tool to keep in touch with my students including my international students. I am also a military brat so I have connected with folks from my childhood who live all around the country in places I lived growing up.  I see their opinions on this election.  I see the questions they ask and the people that respond to their posts. I see an overwhelming push for Trump.  It could mean something or I could be way off base.  Again, not a prediction just an observation.  

I also recognize that the media is the largest part of the machine.  The media arm of the machine wants ratings and money. They have no interest in reporting the truth.  They will frame this election as “tied” to get ratings whether it’s leaning one way or the other.  Gotta have people glued to their feeds/TV.

 

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Smokin Gray Beard

Smokin

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Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

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Ebony zer SNAP

Ebony zer

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13 hours ago, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

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disgruntledemployee Gray Beard

disgruntledemployee

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20 hours ago, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval. 

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Vito Crew Dawg

Vito

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 Big gender gap, women and young voters leaning to Harris, Men, to Trump. Reminds me of this scene in “The Godfather”. Women and kids rarely pay the price for dumb decisions. Men always pay the consequences and have to clean up the mess.

 

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Smokin Gray Beard

Smokin

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7 hours ago, Ebony zer said:

Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off.

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval.

You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote.  "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment).  I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win.

Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.

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disgruntledemployee Gray Beard

disgruntledemployee

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2 hours ago, Smokin said:

Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off.

You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote.  "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment).  I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win.

Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.

Yes, 1 vote per state.  If it goes to March, it's not the old VP, but rather the new VP selected by the Senate.  So, there is a slim chance that Vance could be Prez based off a tie, the new house is stalemate, and the anticipated R majority for the Senate picking Vance as VP .  IF all of that were to happen, look for Trump to bash the shit out of the process, slam Vance for taking the job, then ask to be Vance's VP.

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disgruntledemployee Gray Beard

disgruntledemployee

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1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

Or the Supreme Court decides it… can’t imagine what’ll burn down if that happened.

https://flvoicenews.com/author/eric-daugherty/

I thought we don't trust the media, and in this case, a student from Florida Gulf Coast U.

In a Rumsfeldian voice, You don't go to an election with the Electorial College you want, you go with the college you got.

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