The Next President is...

[17D_guy]

It's fixed now but...lol.

Also...why isn't the White House included in the "bureaucracy"?

[blueingreen]

1 hour ago, Banzai said:

Is there actually proof of your assertions outside of anecdotal evidence?

I don't know exactly which assertions you're referring to, but here's a few numbers on Prop 13:

• A 2018 report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) found that about 55% of single-family homes in California were owned by long-term residents who benefit from Prop 13’s tax caps.
• A 2020 study by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) estimated that 40–50% of homeowners pay property taxes based on pre-2000 assessed values, thanks to Prop 13.
• California has the 2nd lowest home ownership rate in the country at 55.3%, and it hasn't changed in almost 60 years.
• The median tenure of homeowners in desirable areas of California like LA, San Diego, the Bay Area, and the Central Coast is anywhere between 15 - 20 years, which is far above the national median tenure of 10 years.
• Between 2020 and 2024, the median home price in California rose from $580,000 to $869,000. This surge meant that many homeowners, particularly older residents who had purchased their homes 20 to 30 years ago, enjoyed record increases in home equity. Here's a chart on that:

All this data points to one thing: It's very likely that there are many people who lucked out and bought a house in CA in the 80's, 90's, and early 2000's who have been holding on to it for dear life under the protection of Prop 13 ever since. These older homeowners, already past the peak of their economic productivity, can't compete with the Silicon Valley types or the huge influx of tech / finance people who moved into CA and started working from home during the COVID years. In a less regulated housing market, it's possible that a portion of those homeowners would move to other more affordable states (red states) and pay their taxes there.

[nsplayr]

49 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

It's fixed now but...lol.

Also...why isn't the White House included in the "bureaucracy"?

Have these DOGE interns realized yet that there is already an official .gov website where anyone can already track federal spending?

https://www.usaspending.gov/

They are literally trying to reinvent the wheel and so far it’s a cube 😅

I mean cool, let the interns make a website that’s mostly a Twitter feed with some graphs. Good work boys, keep working hard and you’ll potentially earn college credit this semester!

Is the DoD more lethal yet? Can they DOGE some of our endless CBTs and buy some more munitions please?

Edited Friday at 07:11 PM by nsplayr

[HeloDude]

^^^Too funny coming from the guy who said Biden was doing a good job as president

[ViperMan]

6 hours ago, Banzai said:

Is there actually proof of your assertions outside of anecdotal evidence?

Do you mean besides the express, stated purpose of Prop 13?

All kidding aside, if you think prop 13 has the effect it is supposed to have - namely, keeping people in their homes - then that's all the proof you need. If you want more data, I recommend this site: 

https://www.officialdata.org/ca-property-tax/

It will show you every property in CA and how much tax is paid on it yearly. You won't have to search around at all to find 10x differences in any given neighborhood. With some effort, you'll be able to find 100x differences. You can conduct your own thought experiment to determine whether or not someone who currently pays ~$1,000/yr in property taxes would be encouraged to sell their home and move if those same taxes went up to twenty or thirty thousand dollars/yr.

Prop 13 aside, another dynamic that distorts the simplistic "blue states contribute more" meme is to consider is how the SALT functions. In short, it reduces blue states' contributions to the federal tax kitty relative to red states' contributions. Here is a table, courtesy of Chat GPT, that will show you how on an income of $100,000, equal earners who live in different states pay the federal government different amounts. Notably, if you live in a lower tax state (i.e. red America), you get the privilege of paying more for the federal government.

If you live in FL for example, you pay 3.8% more effective federal tax than if you live in CA. You pay 3.0% more than if you live in NY. If you aren't a property owner, those differences increase even more.

Tax Comparison: California vs. Arizona vs. Florida vs. New York at $100,000 Income

Category	California (CA)	New York (NY)	Arizona (AZ)	Florida (FL)
State Income Tax Rate	9.3%	5.85% + NYC tax	2.5%	0%
State Income Tax Owed	~$4,450	~$5,200	~$2,500	$0
Property Tax (on $400K home)	~$3,000	~$4,200	~$2,000	~$3,200
Sales Tax (on $35K spending)	~$3,100	~$3,100	~$2,900	~$2,450
Total SALT (State + Property + Sales Tax)	~$10,550	~$12,500	~$7,400	~$5,650
SALT Deduction Allowed (Cap)	$10,000	$10,000	$7,400	$5,650
Disallowed SALT Deduction	$550	$2,500	$0	$0
Taxable Income After SALT Cap	$90,000	$90,500	$92,600	$94,350
Federal Income Tax Owed (2024 Brackets)	~$13,200	~$13,300	~$13,400	~$13,700
Total Taxes (State + Federal + Property + Sales)	~$20,750	~$21,800	~$17,800	~$19,350
Relative Federal Tax as % of Lowest State	100%	100.8%	101.5%	103.8%

Edited Friday at 11:21 PM by ViperMan

[Clark Griswold]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[disgruntledemployee]

1 hour ago, ViperMan said:

Do you mean besides the express, stated purpose of Prop 13?

All kidding aside, if you think prop 13 has the effect it is supposed to have - namely, keeping people in their homes - then that's all the proof you need. If you want more data, I recommend this site: 

https://www.officialdata.org/ca-property-tax/

It will show you every property in CA and how much tax is paid on it yearly. You won't have to search around at all to find 10x differences in any given neighborhood. With some effort, you'll be able to find 100x differences. You can conduct your own thought experiment to determine whether or not someone who currently pays ~$1,000/yr in property taxes would be encouraged to sell their home and move if those same taxes went up to twenty or thirty thousand dollars/yr.

Prop 13 aside, another dynamic that distorts the simplistic "blue states contribute more" meme is to consider is how the SALT functions. In short, it reduces blue states' contributions to the federal tax kitty relative to red states' contributions. Here is a table, courtesy of Chat GPT, that will show you how on an income of $100,000, equal earners who live in different states pay the federal government different amounts. Notably, if you live in a lower tax state (i.e. red America), you get the privilege of paying more for the federal government.

If you live in FL for example, you pay 3.8% more effective federal tax than if you live in CA. You pay 3.0% more than if you live in NY. If you aren't a property owner, those differences increase even more.

Tax Comparison: California vs. Arizona vs. Florida vs. New York at $100,000 Income

Category	California (CA)	New York (NY)	Arizona (AZ)	Florida (FL)
State Income Tax Rate	9.3%	5.85% + NYC tax	2.5%	0%
State Income Tax Owed	~$4,450	~$5,200	~$2,500	$0
Property Tax (on $400K home)	~$3,000	~$4,200	~$2,000	~$3,200
Sales Tax (on $35K spending)	~$3,100	~$3,100	~$2,900	~$2,450
Total SALT (State + Property + Sales Tax)	~$10,550	~$12,500	~$7,400	~$5,650
SALT Deduction Allowed (Cap)	$10,000	$10,000	$7,400	$5,650
Disallowed SALT Deduction	$550	$2,500	$0	$0
Taxable Income After SALT Cap	$90,000	$90,500	$92,600	$94,350
Federal Income Tax Owed (2024 Brackets)	~$13,200	~$13,300	~$13,400	~$13,700
Total Taxes (State + Federal + Property + Sales)	~$20,750	~$21,800	~$17,800	~$19,350
Relative Federal Tax as % of Lowest State	100%	100.8%	101.5%	103.8%

Your math is off

[disgruntledemployee]

Vance's speech in Munich.  Placeholder for, WTF comments.  I'll post more tomorrow.

[nsplayr]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elon-musk-doge-posts-classified-data_n_67ae646de4b0513a8d767112
 

Oops! The “hardcore geniuses” at DOGE put up SECRET//NOFORN on their website.

In all seriousness, Trump needs to get this DOGE to heel. He was elected to an actual government office. He is the President and the one charged with safeguarding the nation’s secrets and interests.

These marauding morons working in his name with what I’m imagining is only the lightest amount of oversight from an unelected billionaire with his own agenda need to KIO.

I do not like or trust Trump or support his agenda - but he was elected and so be it. Elon wasn’t elected to shit and is doing a bunch of wildly unconstitutional stuff “with Trump’s blessing” and I think that’s gonna come back and bite us all. I am confident Trump didn’t ask him to hire some interns to put classified info on the internet. If I were a Republican Trump supporter I would be even more mad.

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Your math is off

Thanks. I see the error with NY. Sorry about that. Hopefully the underlying, broader point about the SALT redistributing Federal tax dollars to blue states isn't lost in the arithmetic.

Estimates place approximately 14.4 million households in CA making between $80-120K. This puts the total redistribution to CA at $7.2 billion dollars per year (using a $500 net gain for CA per tax return) when compared to FL (currently). That amounts to about 2-3% of CA's annual budget. That number isn't on any accounting sheet. It's rough math, but the point is that there are hidden factors like this which distort how much individuals wind up paying to the federal government.

At lower levels of income, the difference is exacerbated.

Tax Comparison: California vs. New York vs. Arizona vs. Florida at $50,000 Income

Category	New York (NY)	California (CA)	Arizona (AZ)	Florida (FL)
State Income Tax Rate	5.85% + NYC tax	6.0% (on part of income)	2.5%	0%
State Income Tax Owed	~$1,700	~$1,200	~$650	$0
Sales Tax (on $25K spending)	~$2,200	~$2,200	~$2,100	~$1,750
Total SALT (State + Sales Tax Only)	~$3,900	~$3,400	~$2,750	~$1,750
SALT Deduction Allowed (Cap)	$3,900	$3,400	$2,750	$1,750
Disallowed SALT Deduction	$0	$0	$0	$0
Taxable Income After SALT Deduction	$46,100	$46,600	$47,250	$48,250
Federal Income Tax Owed (2024 Brackets)	~$4,800	~$4,900	~$5,000	~$5,200
Total Taxes (State + Federal + Sales)	~$8,700	~$8,500	~$7,750	~$6,950
Relative Federal Tax as % of Lowest State	100%	102.1%	104.2%	108.3%

Here you can see a FL resident pays 8.3% more to Uncle Sam than a NY resident, and ~6% more than a CA resident. So really, the SALT is a way for blue states to redirect federal tax dollars into their coffers before that money shows up on any accounting sheet. In 2016, the average SALT deduction in CA was ~$18K. Multiplying this by 5.5 million returns puts the total deduction at about $100B. That's a redirection of about $25 billion dollars (in one year - before the SALT was capped) from the federal government to CA. In comparison, total tax receipts from the lowest 5 states in 2020 (4 red, 1 blue) was about $30 billion.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

If I were a Republican Trump supporter I would be even more mad.

This is the dumbest thing you've ever said, and that's quite a threshold.

[HeloDude]

Progressives are upset that Trump is doing a lot of what he said he would do, and yet, non-progressives are supposed to be upset as well?  And I love the “unconstitutional” part of what Trump is doing…this is their new catchphrase since the Musk Nazi-salute nonsense didn’t work.

Edited Saturday at 03:50 AM by HeloDude

[Swizzle]

37 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Progressives are upset that Trump is doing a lot of what he said he would do, and yet, non-progressives are supposed to be upset as well?  And I love the “unconstitutional” part of what Trump is doing…this is their new catchphrase since the Musk Nazi-salute nonsense didn’t work.

 

[dream big]

16 hours ago, nsplayr said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/defense-military-spending-lockheed-northrop-stock-ada2cff3

“We’re going to spend a lot less money,” said Trump at a news conference addressing the potential outcome of talks with Russia and China. “One of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia. I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half.”

Lololol 😆

I mean, I know he’s straight up talking out of his ass, which is ops normal…but can you imagine for one second if Biden would have said this same sentence?

Luckily for us the Congressional Dems and Republicans will never go for this, and at least for now, Article I still (mostly) applies.

Biden couldn’t talk in complete sentences so kind of irrelevant there. Yes Trump is talking out of his a$$, but his intention isn’t wrong, plenty of worthless expenditures in the DoD - it’s become a jobs and industrial program more so than actual national security. 

[nsplayr]

1 hour ago, dream big said:

Biden couldn’t talk in complete sentences so kind of irrelevant there. Yes Trump is talking out of his a$$, but his intention isn’t wrong, plenty of worthless expenditures in the DoD - it’s become a jobs and industrial program more so than actual national security. 

I mean if you want to make the argument looking at the world and the role the U.S. has played since the end of WWII and argue we can do it on 50% of the budget, I’m all ears.

No need really since cuts, let alone dramatic cuts will never make it through Congress. Just curious to know if my mil friends on the right could justify that statement in any way.

3 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is the dumbest thing you've ever said, and that's quite a threshold.

Wow that is a high bar! Truly not sure why what I said there is so dumb.

If I voted for Kamala Harris to be President but once she was sworn in Zuckerberg and a bunch of kids too young to even rent a car came in and started trashing the government, giving nonsense press conferences from behind her desk while she sat there mute, etc., I would not be too happy with that.

If Trump and the GOP want to do these cuts, he should own it and use the constitutional process - y’all absolutely could achieved this given that you control Congress as well. He is supposed to be the leader, not a random unelected outsider. If the tables were turned and this was George Soros y’all would storm the capitol again 😅

Pass a new appropriations bill getting rid of agencies and departments you don’t like, etc. Fire employees with the proper notifications, timelines, etc. and pass Schedule F through Congress if you want more at-will government employees. 

🤷‍♂️ I guess y’all don’t feel the same way.

Edited Saturday at 06:54 AM by nsplayr

[nsplayr]

Hell let’s swing for the fences and make some foreign policy statements I would think should be a bipartisan consensus:

1. We shouldn’t annex Canada.

2. We shouldn’t “own” Gaza and permanently displace the 2m Palestinians living there.

3. We shouldn’t sell out Ukraine to Putin for absolutely nothing.

4. We shouldn’t cut the DoD budget by 50%.

🤷‍♂️ not sure why any of the above would be controversial.

Edited Saturday at 06:50 AM by nsplayr

[Lord Ratner]

57 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Truly not sure why what I said there is so dumb.

Truly? You said that you, a progressive who voted for a progressive candidate who pitched Donald Trump as the literal end to American democracy, would somehow be more mad if you were a Republican who voted for the Republican president who immediately started doing what he campaigned on doing. And you didn't see how that comment is bananas-dumb? 

 

Donald Trump is wiping out the bureaucrats that used administrivia and procedure to thwart and outlast his first administration. He's bringing in experts on efficiency and modernization to slash departments that shouldn't exist in the first place. He's purging an ideology that destroyed our academic institutions and violated the very core principals the country was founded on. 

 

I know why you're mad about all of these things, but if you're so delusional to think any of this would make a conservative mad, you clearly do live in a mental bubble with no grasp at all on how other people in this country think. That wouldn't be particularly remarkable except for you've been in a primarily conservative organization for what, two decades? 

 

The only thing I'm mad about right now is that we had to wait for a reality TV star with a gold toilet and plastic wife to do what conservative presidents should have been doing for the last 30 years.

[nsplayr]

I guess my point was the process. Trump is at best marginally “doing” these things. The Congress the GOP worked hard to win isn’t doing anything right now. IMHO there will be a government shutdown with the GOP trifecta come March 14th and…good luck dodging the blame there.

What I didn’t expect from this new admin was for the President to bring in a random Johnny-Come-Lately unelected bureaucrat, recently-liberal billionaire to destroy the government Trump is supposed to be leading. Also some of Trump’s weirder recent utterances like wanting to own Gaza and cut the DoD budget by 50%…that’s far afield from anything he campaigned on, quite the opposite actually.

I am not confused as to why MAGA loves “owning the libs,” it’s clear that is the primary motivator for a lot of what’s happening. I guess I just didn’t expect Trump to be watching from a proverbial “chair in the corner” while Elon talks to reporters from behind the resolute desk, has his kid picking his nose and telling Trump, “You’re not the President, you need to go away, shut your mouth,” etc. That was a really bizarre scene to me. Trump signing EOs in big black sharpie, holding rallies, and “I alone can fix it” is all par for his course - playing second fiddle is not.

I guess the ends justify the means re: Elon? He will make a good fall guy if something goes sideways, I’ll give you that.

I do agree that conservative Presidents like Reagan and the Bushes did not dismantled the state previously, but in my view it’s likely because they were wise enough not to. Kneecapping the government is a fun sport the GOP excels at when out of power; usually when in office they realize that if/when shit breaks down and they are in the seat, they will be blamed. Very few if any GOP governors have sought to eviscerate their own governments…control, shape, lead, yes. But destroying your own house will inevitable lead to poor outcomes for you.

Edited Saturday at 10:50 AM by nsplayr

[busdriver]

Libertarian fever dream:  this will be the thing that spurs the legislative branch into taking power back from the executive!

 

 

[ClearedHot]

7 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Hell let’s swing for the fences and make some foreign policy statements I would think should be a bipartisan consensus:

1. We shouldn’t annex Canada.

2. We shouldn’t “own” Gaza and permanently displace the 2m Palestinians living there.

3. We shouldn’t sell out Ukraine to Putin for absolutely nothing.

4. We shouldn’t cut the DoD budget by 50%.

🤷‍♂️ not sure why any of the above would be controversial.

So you do think we should buy Greenland!

[lloyd christmas]

https://victorhanson.com/mythologies-about-musk/

 

[O Face]

5 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I guess my point was the process. Trump is at best marginally “doing” these things. The Congress the GOP worked hard to win isn’t doing anything right now. IMHO there will be a government shutdown with the GOP trifecta come March 14th and…good luck dodging the blame there.

What I didn’t expect from this new admin was for the President to bring in a random Johnny-Come-Lately unelected bureaucrat, recently-liberal billionaire to destroy the government Trump is supposed to be leading. Also some of Trump’s weirder recent utterances like wanting to own Gaza and cut the DoD budget by 50%…that’s far afield from anything he campaigned on, quite the opposite actually.

I am not confused as to why MAGA loves “owning the libs,” it’s clear that is the primary motivator for a lot of what’s happening. I guess I just didn’t expect Trump to be watching from a proverbial “chair in the corner” while Elon talks to reporters from behind the resolute desk, has his kid picking his nose and telling Trump, “You’re not the President, you need to go away, shut your mouth,” etc. That was a really bizarre scene to me. Trump signing EOs in big black sharpie, holding rallies, and “I alone can fix it” is all par for his course - playing second fiddle is not.

I guess the ends justify the means re: Elon? He will make a good fall guy if something goes sideways, I’ll give you that.

I do agree that conservative Presidents like Reagan and the Bushes did not dismantled the state previously, but in my view it’s likely because they were wise enough not to. Kneecapping the government is a fun sport the GOP excels at when out of power; usually when in office they realize that if/when shit breaks down and they are in the seat, they will be blamed. Very few if any GOP governors have sought to eviscerate their own governments…control, shape, lead, yes. But destroying your own house will inevitable lead to poor outcomes for you.

Cleaning house is never fun. You seriously wondering why Trump brought in outside help??  I know you’re not that dumb, but just in case, I’ll let you in on a secret…The elected Republicans are in on it too!! Holy shit that must’ve blown your mind. I’m certain that there were plenty of (R) elected officials getting their pockets lined by USAID funding for writing gay love ballads for Amazonian beetles or something equally ridiculous. And yet you sit there aghast that these people aren’t being used to treat their own illness?  I realize the government sits up higher on the pedestal for a liberal and our view of necessary spending varies dramatically. But you cannot tell me you believe the fed has their checkbook in order. If Biden or any other (D) said they were cutting wasteful gov spending and then actually started doing it, I guarantee you I would applaud them, so quit accusing me of the otherwise. And you also seem to have a problem with young people looking at numbers. Would you prefer some sharp minds like McConnell, Pelosi, and Watters get to the bottom of this wasteful spending?  I don’t give a fuck if it’s a roomful of Kindergarteners, if they handed the president the USAID budget and said “get rid of it,” more power to them.  I promise the US government will not be “kneecapped” without the hardworking folks in USAID. 

Edited Saturday at 04:12 PM by O Face
.

[brabus]

4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

The Congress the GOP worked hard to win isn’t doing anything right now

Yep, and not a surprise. Congress is horrible across the board - maybe it’ll shape up some day, but I’m not holding my breath until we have term limits and some investing restrictions while in office.

4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

to destroy the government Trump is supposed to be leading

What you fail to grasp is the majority of voters see this “destruction” (to use your description) as a very positive thing. We want the number of fed employees slashed, we want entire departments completely erased, we want gov spending/budgets massively curtailed, etc.  That “destruction” is significant progress towards a more prosperous and stronger America - you don’t believe that, but the majority of America does.

5 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Also some of Trump’s weirder recent utterances like wanting to own Gaza and cut the DoD budget by 50%

We all know by now Trump’s MO is to say wild things as part of his negotiating tactics. Every time in the last month he threatened tariffs people like you went wild and said he was buttfucking the country to death…except they worked immediately and perfectly, every time. Now if we actually “occupy” Gaza, I’m against that, but I am not worried about that happening for now - this is most likely Trump par for the course coming off the top rope initially to settle where he actually wanted to be later on. Same comment on slashing the defense budget 50%, though I do support some significant DOD slashing.

The mind losing over Elon is laughable. DOGE has no inherent authority - they provide the info, Trump makes the decision (or has legally delegated authority in some cases). Is the General not in charge when I make large impacting decisions? When I decide how millions get spent, is the General just for show and playing second fiddle to me? Absolutely not, and you know it. He can shitcan me in a second, or immediately deny/turn back something I’ve done - at any point and for any reason per his judgement. He is unequivocally in charge at all times, even if I’m the guy making daily decisions, because in the end the General can’t do everything and micro manage, he has to have people like me to get it done. Bringing in Elon is no different.

By the way, Trump has a long way to go to match Clinton in gov “destruction.” It’s just not your team doing it this time, so be mad about it is the only option.

 

[Sua Sponte]

[dream big]

11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I mean if you want to make the argument looking at the world and the role the U.S. has played since the end of WWII and argue we can do it on 50% of the budget, I’m all ears.

No need really since cuts, let alone dramatic cuts will never make it through Congress. Just curious to know if my mil friends on the right could justify that statement in any way.

Wow that is a high bar! Truly not sure why what I said there is so dumb.

If I voted for Kamala Harris to be President but once she was sworn in Zuckerberg and a bunch of kids too young to even rent a car came in and started trashing the government, giving nonsense press conferences from behind her desk while she sat there mute, etc., I would not be too happy with that.

If Trump and the GOP want to do these cuts, he should own it and use the constitutional process - y’all absolutely could achieved this given that you control Congress as well. He is supposed to be the leader, not a random unelected outsider. If the tables were turned and this was George Soros y’all would storm the capitol again 😅

Pass a new appropriations bill getting rid of agencies and departments you don’t like, etc. Fire employees with the proper notifications, timelines, etc. and pass Schedule F through Congress if you want more at-will government employees. 

🤷‍♂️ I guess y’all don’t feel the same way.

Which conflict have we won since Desert Storm (if you can count that?) How did Afghanistan turn out? Bro it’s time for some change.