The Next President is...

[ryleypav]

Someone enlighten me. Is there really a difference between mail-in and absentee? Why is one good and the other not?

[Sua Sponte]

51 minutes ago, ryleypav said:

Someone enlighten me. Is there really a difference between mail-in and absentee? Why is one good and the other not?

Fundamentally, no, there isn't a difference since the voter isn't physically in a voting booth to vote. Oregon has been using mail-in voting since 1998 and in 2000 was the first state to have 100% mail-in voting for the presidential election. A GOP think tank, the Heritage Foundation data showed as of 2020, Oregon has cast 15,476,519 votes since 2000. During that time 14 fraudulent votes were attempted by mail. Voter fraud could also be considered a convicted felon trying to vote. This is another unsubstantiated claim by Trump trying to rile up his base about a "rampant problem" that doesn't exist. I voted this year in Washington via mail, just like last year. Had no issues.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/06/02/low-rates-of-fraud-in-vote-by-mail-states-show-the-benefits-outweigh-the-risks/

[ItnStln]

2 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

A GOP think tank, the Heritage Foundation data showed as of 2020, Oregon has cast 15,476,519 votes since 2000. During that time 14 fraudulent votes were attempted by mail. Voter fraud could also be considered a convicted felon trying to vote. This is another unsubstantiated claim by Trump trying to rile up his base about a "rampant problem" that doesn't exist.

One fraudulent vote is a problem.

[Homestar]

5 minutes ago, ItnStln said:

One fraudulent vote is a problem.

Yes, but not the problem Trump thinks it is. 
 

He’s laying the groundwork for a contested election. 
 

I predict a landslide, so it won’t matter anyway. 

[Sua Sponte]

2 hours ago, ItnStln said:

One fraudulent vote is a problem.

One drunk driver is a problem. But if you say there's a drunk driving problem, but the data doesn't support your claim, you either look like a liar, stupid, or both.

[17D_guy]

2 hours ago, ItnStln said:

One fraudulent vote is a problem.

Well, better trample liberties and call into question the whole system for electorally insignificant fraudulent votes.  Then, since the states get to decide - push the narrative of moving the election.
Doesn't sound fascist at all.

Where I was at in TX, they did electronic voting without paper.  That, to me, is highly more susceptible to centralized fraud than mail-in ballots.  New place does mail only, I'm cool with it.  First thing I did after signing the closing docs was register to vote.

[17D_guy]

7 hours ago, brawnie said:

Discuss. Rabble rabble constitution rabble rabble.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1288818160389558273?s=20

"Proof of economic collapse due to mishandling of COVID...Better tweet something to distract!"

[nsplayr]

As a famous guy once said, the cure can’t be worse than the disease.

In an effort to fight voter fraud, which does happen but at a very low level, many efforts at increased security end up disenfranchising orders of magnitude more citizens.

Several states have run successful elections with 100% vote by mail for decades...broadening the scope of allowable absentee excuses to include COVID during a raging pandemic isn’t going to somehow sink the Republic.

We should all expect that results will take longer than normal this year, and unless it’s a total blowout I would prepare to wait several days at a minimum to determine the Presidential winner, let alone all the state races, many of which may be very close as well.

Edited July 30, 2020 by nsplayr

[drewpey]

It will be a lot easier to identify and track down voter fraud via physical absentee ballots than it would be on a hackable electronic voting machine with no audit-able paper trail.

[Prozac]

It is considered safe to mail passports, prescription drugs, driver’s licenses, and a litany of other sensitive documents. States like Washington and Oregon have been successfully 100% vote by mail for years. I’d reckon a vast majority of the posters on this board have voted by mail at one point or another. Is it a perfect process? Of course not. But voting in person can also be a clusterfuck a la Florida 2000. Trump’s claims are, as usual, baseless. He knows the higher the turnout, the worse the results will be for him. Voter suppression and/or postponing the election are just pathetic attempts to keep his campaign hopes alive. 

[brickhistory]

[lloyd christmas]

Any reason we couldn't mail everyone with a SSN above 18 a code of some sort that can be used online instead of by mail?  

[SurelySerious]

1 minute ago, lloyd christmas said:

Any reason we couldn't mail everyone with a SSN above 18 a code of some sort that can be used online instead of by mail?  

It’s super easy to sit back in your home country and hack a website. 

[waveshaper]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

As a famous guy once said, the cure can’t be worse than the disease.

Here's a couple Constitutional circle jerks/cures that could come into play during this 2020 election goat rope:<)

- Contingent election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

- Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

- Twentieth Amendment:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution   

[SurelySerious]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

Voter suppression and/or postponing the election are just pathetic attempts to keep his campaign hopes alive. 

 

57 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

Mmm, maybe, but ^ this is what’s actually keeping Trump’s re-election alive. WTAF Democratic party? All they had to do was offer a median candidate that appeals to a broad base that is still mentally coherent. 

[pawnman]

28 minutes ago, lloyd christmas said:

Any reason we couldn't mail everyone with a SSN above 18 a code of some sort that can be used online instead of by mail?  

This is a government that sent $4 billion in stimulus checks to dead people.  What do you suppose the accuracy rate for voter records is?

[waveshaper]

18 minutes ago, pawnman said:

This is a government that sent $4 billion in stimulus checks to dead people.  What do you suppose the accuracy rate for voter records is?

At $1,200 each - that's 3,333,333.33 dead potential voters.

[Negatory]

20 minutes ago, waveshaper said:

At $1,200 each - that's 3,333,333.33 dead potential voters.

Repeating, of course.

[Day Man]

13 minutes ago, brawnie said:

Repeating, of course.

[jrizzell]

Someone enlighten me. Is there really a difference between mail-in and absentee? Why is one good and the other not?

As I understand it, absentee ballots require the registered voter to request their official ballot. The mail-in process, has the election office mailing an official ballot to the registered voters address. The crux of the problem, would be if an official ballot is sent to an address that is no longer occupied by that voter, could be returned by the current occupant. Obviously this varies from state to state. I feel like making people verify who they are before the ballot is sent shouldn’t be that hard...but hey 2020...amirite

[nsplayr]

2 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

All they had to do was offer a median candidate that appeals to a broad base that is still mentally coherent. 

I mean, feel free to believe whatever you want, but that’s exactly what the party did in most people’s minds.

As of today, Biden is polling +8.3 in the RCP average, has pushed the tipping point state well outside the toss-up category, and is beating Clinton’s polling lead in both absolute terms as well as steadiness. He’s in the best position of any challenger since the advent of modern polling. Lots of time left and things change blah blah blah, but that’s the state of the race today and any honest person with any professional training in electoral politics and polling will tell you basically the same story.

Biden’s policy vision is Democratic Party center-of-mass and he’s a very well known quantity both in the party and in DC. He’s not a radical socialist reformer, which was the other prominent option for the last 8 years, and his broad appeal both inside the Dem party and among independents is evident in his current large polling lead both nationally and in many more battleground states than are needed to win the election.

I 100% agree he’s lost a step or two and personally I’m very ageist in my Presidential politics...Uncle Joe wasn’t anywhere near my first choice specifically due to age. Age 45-60 with experience in the Senate or as a Governor is ideal IMHO, with exceptions for compelling candidates on the margins of those criteria.

Keep in mind that President Trump is also quite old and those living in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones re: rambling, incoherent statements because that is kind of Trump’s shtick.

[nsplayr]

36 minutes ago, jrizzell said:

The crux of the problem, would be if an official ballot is sent to an address that is no longer occupied by that voter, could be returned by the current occupant. Obviously this varies from state to state. I feel like making people verify who they are before the ballot is sent shouldn’t be that hard...but hey 2020...amirite

Vote by mail almost always requires a signature match between the signature on the mailed in ballot with one on file.

Read this about how the process works in Utah, a heavily Republican state that has successfully conducted all-mail elections for several cycles now, following in the footsteps of Washington and Oregon who have done so for decades. 

Edited July 31, 2020 by nsplayr

[SurelySerious]

4 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I mean, feel free to believe whatever you want, but that’s exactly what the party did in most people’s minds.

As of today, Biden is polling +8.3 in the RCP average, has pushed the tipping point state well outside the toss-up category, and is beating Clinton’s polling lead in both absolute terms as well as steadiness. He’s in the best position of any challenger since the advent of modern polling. Lots of time left and things change blah blah blah, but that’s the state of the race today and any honest person with any professional training in electoral politics and polling will tell you basically the same story.

Biden’s policy vision is Democratic Party center-of-mass and he’s a very well known quantity both in the party and in DC. He’s not a radical socialist reformer, which was the other prominent option for the last 8 years, and his broad appeal both inside the Dem party and among independents is evident in his current large polling lead both nationally and in many more battleground states than are needed to win the election.

I 100% agree he’s lost a step or two and personally I’m very ageist in my Presidential politics...Uncle Joe wasn’t anywhere near my first choice specifically due to age. Age 45-60 with experience in the Senate or as a Governor is ideal IMHO, with exceptions for compelling candidates on the margins of those criteria.

Keep in mind that President Trump is also quite old and those living in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones re: rambling, incoherent statements because that is kind of Trump’s shtick.

Democratic party center of mass is not median that appeals to people on the right. He also can’t complete a sentence. 

[drewpey]

2 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

He also can’t complete a sentence. 

Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning.

I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”

You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. All he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.

[Prozac]

4 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

 

Mmm, maybe, but ^ this is what’s actually keeping Trump’s re-election alive. WTAF Democratic party? All they had to do was offer a median candidate that appeals to a broad base that is still mentally coherent. 

Wasn’t my first choice by a long shot. BUT he’s currently beating the incumbent from his basement. My (unsolicited and worth every penny you paid for it) opinion is that a LOT will hinge on his choice of running mate who will likely be the Dem nominee in 2024. A potential Biden Admin will face the massive economic downturn wrought by coronavirus and a bad choice could turn into a successful Tucker Carlson campaign next cycle. God help us all.