Goldfein advocating FAA 1500 hour rule change???

[flyusaf83]

1 hour ago, FUSEPLUG said:

You've obviously forgoten about the memo that says we can roll up our sleeves now. 

But first you need to make sure the sleeves are rolled exactly 6-9 millimeters from the crest of your elbow, making a perfect right angle.  

[dream big]

6 hours ago, Smokin said:

I keep hearing guys say, "it's not about the money" but that's a load of bull.  It may not ALL be about the money, but at some point, money talks.  The AF should find solutions to most of the laundry list of reasons guys get out, but that is going to take years.  Make the bonus jaw-dropping and you'll keep enough guys in to buy time to figure out how to fix the rest.  I'd bet most of the guys getting hired by the majors right now are doing it for two reasons, money and work schedule.  If the AF could figure out either (or both ideally), the exodus would be far more manageable.

 

Every year you stay in the Air Force is a year people are giving up in seniority, which equates to millions of dollars on the back end of an airline career.  

[pilotguy]

2 hours ago, dream big said:

Every year you stay in the Air Force is a year people are giving up in seniority, which equates to millions of dollars on the back end of an airline career.  

This is not really accurate at all. The money is was closer than you think if you get out at 20 rather than at 12...

[Scram]

The money isn't close at all.  RAND pegged the figure in the ballpark of millions in pay difference between getting out at 12 and staying in for 20, even when making O-6 AND going to the airlines.  Think of it this way: the year you delay getting out is the year your are making over a quarter of a million as a senior captain at age 65.

[isuguy1234]

That Congressman also mentioned that he recommends the Guard and Reserves open up a lot more flying positions.  I've seen those spots be limited in some places and I haven't really heard much conversation about opening more spots up except for this article.  It seems a lot of guys would happily fly for either of those if there were part time jobs available, but obviously that would be a big paradigm shift.  Is this something being looked at seriously anywhere?  I'm speaking specifcally to TFI units that could easily absorb a larger Reserve/Guard spot increase with a lack of Active Duty spots.

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

1 hour ago, Scram said:

The money isn't close at all.  RAND pegged the figure in the ballpark of millions in pay difference between getting out at 12 and staying in for 20, even when making O-6 AND going to the airlines.  Think of it this way: the year you delay getting out is the year your are making over a quarter of a million as a senior captain at age 65.

Dude...you sound like you want to speak precisely but offer broad generalizations. WTF does "in the ballpark of millions" mean? Come on now. Further, your example of the quarter mil made as a senior captain is flawed unless the individual is not earning retirement, a paycheck, or any other compensation elsewhere. Then I'd buy it. What does a retired O-6 make in retirement? What will they likely bring in in their second career (airlines or other)? How short of the "senior captain" pay will they be at that stage in their life? Not likely as short as you seem to think. If you want to quote the RAND study then do so, but your statement is flawed at best.

[the g-man]

9 hours ago, Spartacus said:

Couldn't agree more. At the beginning of my career I heard people say that they would do this job for free. I maintain to this day that that comment is one of the stupidest I've ever heard. There is something about flying fast jets that causes some of the smartest people I've ever met to make some of the dumbest comments in the world about their compensation. 

I now have the comfort of cuddling with my DD214 nightly, but I get pissed when I hear borderline geniuses say that it's not about the money. Someone needs to start a workshop on business negotiation. We spend over a decade getting shat on with absolutely no negotiating power and once you finally have a say in your life and a little freedom you give a HUGE concession to big blue by saying it's not about the money! Of course it's about the money. That's just not the biggest part of what it's about. 

This is the same argument civilian pilots have been making since the late 90s-2000s after many pilots started taking jobs where they had to pay for their own initial training, and then get paid sub-$20k/year... all after paying for all their training.

 

Now regional airlines are hurting so bad they have to offer substantial signing bonuses because the well dried of people who would pay them for experience.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, the g-man said:

This is the same argument civilian pilots have been making since the late 90s-2000s after many pilots started taking jobs where they had to pay for their own initial training, and then get paid sub-$20k/year... all after paying for all their training.

 

Now regional airlines are hurting so bad they have to offer substantial signing bonuses because the well dried of people who would pay them for experience.

Bingo! Eventually AF management will hear/realize that it is about the MONEY, 365s, CBTs, addl duties, etc (all of it). It is a pilot's market and WE get to have say. 

Stop devaluing your worth fellas!

Edited June 11, 2017 by Guest

[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Dude...you sound like you want to speak precisely but offer broad generalizations. WTF does "in the ballpark of millions" mean? Come on now. Further, your example of the quarter mil made as a senior captain is flawed unless the individual is not earning retirement, a paycheck, or any other compensation elsewhere. Then I'd buy it. What does a retired O-6 make in retirement? What will they likely bring in in their second career (airlines or other)? How short of the "senior captain" pay will they be at that stage in their life? Not likely as short as you seem to think. If you want to quote the RAND study then do so, but your statement is flawed at best.

https://aviationbull.com/2017/mar/28/what-will-year-cost-me

[FourFans]

https://aviationbull.com/2017/mar/28/what-will-year-cost-me

Definitely a good read, but the massive unspoken assumption in all that is continued economic prosperity. Jump ship at 17 years service chasing the promise of those extra millions, get hired, then get furloughed in 2 years in the face of an international crisis and what are you left with?
Not sure if anyone here watches world events, but there are currently more than enough boiling cauldrons of stupidity across the globe waiting for the right impetus.
No one here can tell the future, it simply doesn't seem wise to pass up a secure retirement check like that.


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[Lord Ratner]

Definitely a good read, but the massive unspoken assumption in all that is continued economic prosperity. Jump ship at 17 years service chasing the promise of those extra millions, get hired, then get furloughed in 2 years in the face of an international crisis and what are you left with?

Not sure if anyone here watches world events, but there are currently more than enough boiling cauldrons of stupidity across the globe waiting for the right impetus.

No one here can tell the future, it simply doesn't seem wise to pass up a secure retirement check like that.

 

 

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Only valid if you also assume the AF will have solved the shortage crisis at the same time the airlines tank. You can always go back to the AF (these days). You can't retroactively set your seniority.

 

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[FourFans]

You can always go back to the AF (these days). You can't retroactively set your seniority.
 
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In no way will I ever depend on the USAF to provide me a way out. All that trust is gone. Correct about seniority though, which makes the whole argument difficult.
My major difficulty is putting a whole lot of faith in a system when the gravy train is going full steam. It goes against a keep investment concept: "When others are greedy, exercise restraint. When others are restrained, be greedy."


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[pilotguy]

9 hours ago, Scram said:

The money isn't close at all.  RAND pegged the figure in the ballpark of millions in pay difference between getting out at 12 and staying in for 20, even when making O-6 AND going to the airlines.  Think of it this way: the year you delay getting out is the year your are making over a quarter of a million as a senior captain at age 65.

Dude it is way way more involved than that...but I'll try to make it oversimplified.

Ok, I'll give you a quarter mil for the airline Capts. Let compare years 13-20 in the AF with years 58-65 in the airlines (250K per year)...

Year 13 in the Air Force as a C-17 pilot at Travis you're making roughly $160,000 not counting any TDY, and with the bonus. Tricare is worth another 15K so you're SAFELY making in the 175 range. And about a quarter of that isn't even taxable.  That 160K only goes up as you get closer to 20.

Compare that to your 250K, taxable and without medical...

Its way way closer than you think. Sure the Airlines prob brings you out on top but "millions and millions" of dollars isn't true. Add in the 50K per year with full medical until you die and it gets even closer the longer you live...

You can't put a price on quality of life and that's what is really driving people out.

Edited June 11, 2017 by pilotguy

[Danny Noonin]

Dude...you sound like you want to speak precisely but offer broad generalizations. WTF does "in the ballpark of millions" mean? Come on now. Further, your example of the quarter mil made as a senior captain is flawed unless the individual is not earning retirement, a paycheck, or any other compensation elsewhere. Then I'd buy it. What does a retired O-6 make in retirement? What will they likely bring in in their second career (airlines or other)? How short of the "senior captain" pay will they be at that stage in their life? Not likely as short as you seem to think. If you want to quote the RAND study then do so, but your statement is flawed at best.

Ive seen the study. Apparently you haven't. I also can't recall the exact numbers but RAND showed getting out at ADSC was financially best (for pilot), getting out at 20 as an O-5 next, and 25 as an O-6 last. All examples included going to the airlines. There was another situation or two but I don't recall what. And yes, the difference was in millions. About $2.5M at the far end and $1M at the min.

That's what the study showed. He's not making it up.

What the study didn't account for was life after 65. The comparisons were all made AT 65 as I recall. So it didn't account for the value of the pension at that point (active retirement or guard/reserve retirement) or life expectancy. Nor did it account for health care costs at all.

It's impossible to show accurate math because there are too many variables with companies and who the hell knows what the industry will be like in 10 years. I will say that in the late 90s, all my buds were believing the same "indefinite hiring" and "we're all gonna be rich and have tons of days off!" stories that people seem to believe wholeheartedly now. Do you guys think you'll be the only pilots in the history of the industry to go through without a major downturn (furloughs, massive pay cuts)? I hope it's true, but the airline industry has embarrassed a lot of predictions in the past. The only constant is that it's volatile. My sim partner at Delta years ago sold farm equipment 3 days a week for 2 years to get by while furloughed. That wasn't in the brochure when he was hired.

Dudes keep saying you can't put a price on quality of life and that's true. Realize for many people, there is also a value to the security blanket of a pension and health care that probably exceeds its direct value.


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[MDDieselPilot]

53 minutes ago, pilotguy said:

Dude it is way way more involved than that...but I'll try to make it oversimplified.

Ok, I'll give you a quarter mil for the airline Capts. Let compare years 13-20 in the AF with years 58-65 in the airlines (250K per year)...

Year 13 in the Air Force as a C-17 pilot at Travis you're making roughly $160,000 not counting any TDY, and with the bonus. Tricare is worth another 15K so you're SAFELY making in the 175 range. And about a quarter of that isn't even taxable.  That 160K only goes up as you get closer to 20.

Compare that to your 250K, taxable and without medical...

Its way way closer than you think. Sure the Airlines prob brings you out on top but "millions and millions" of dollars isn't true. Add in the 50K per year with full medical until you die and it gets even closer the longer you live...

You can't put a price on quality of life and that's what is really driving people out.

I always valued the medical, but going on two weeks of specialized inpatient care with my 3yr old after a terrible accident has put it in a different perspective.. it is one aspect of mil retirement that is pushing me to stay in.

[BFM this]

5 minutes ago, Danny Noonin said:

 

Ive seen the study. Apparently you haven't. I also can't recall the exact numbers but RAND showed getting out at ADSC was financially best (for pilot), getting out at 20 as an O-5 next, and 25 as an O-6 last. All examples included going to the airlines. There was another situation or two but I don't recall what. And yes, the difference was in millions. About $2.5M at the far end and $1M at the min.

That's what the study showed. He's not making it up.

What the study didn't account for was life after 65. The comparisons were all made AT 65 as I recall. So it didn't account for the value of the pension at that point (active retirement or guard/reserve retirement) or life expectancy. Nor did it account for health care costs at all.

It's impossible to show accurate math because there are too many variables with companies and who the hell knows what the industry will be like in 10 years. I will say that in the late 90s, all my buds were believing the same "indefinite hiring" and "we're all gonna be rich and have tons of days off!" stories that people seem to believe wholeheartedly now. Do you guys think you'll be the only pilots in the history of the industry to go through without a major downturn (furloughs, massive pay cuts)? I hope it's true, but the airline industry has embarrassed a lot of predictions in the past. The only constant is that it's volatile. My sim partner at Delta years ago sold farm equipment 3 days a week for 2 years to get by while furloughed. That wasn't in the brochure when he was hired.

Dudes keep saying you can't put a price on quality of life and that's true. Realize for many people, there is also a value to the security blanket of a pension and health care that probably exceeds its direct value.


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Having a $4m preschooler at home, I can say that it's a tough figure to peg down on an individual basis, but cannot be ignored regardless.

[Stoker]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

Definitely a good read, but the massive unspoken assumption in all that is continued economic prosperity. Jump ship at 17 years service chasing the promise of those extra millions, get hired, then get furloughed in 2 years in the face of an international crisis and what are you left with?
Not sure if anyone here watches world events, but there are currently more than enough boiling cauldrons of stupidity across the globe waiting for the right impetus.
No one here can tell the future, it simply doesn't seem wise to pass up a secure retirement check like that.


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The uncertainty about the economy works both ways, though. Yes, it would be awful to separate before retirement and then get furloughed from the airline, but what that means is that you're better off separating ASAP to start building seniority, because every year you delay going to the airlines is another 1000 people who get hypothetically furloughed after you, instead of before.

[ImNotARobot]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

Definitely a good read, but the massive unspoken assumption in all that is continued economic prosperity. Jump ship at 17 years service chasing the promise of those extra millions, get hired, then get furloughed in 2 years in the face of an international crisis and what are you left with?
Not sure if anyone here watches world events, but there are currently more than enough boiling cauldrons of stupidity across the globe waiting for the right impetus.
No one here can tell the future, it simply doesn't seem wise to pass up a secure retirement check like that.


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Aaah, invoking 9/11 to validate a decision to stay in the Active Duty thrash? That's a bit morose...ahem, I mean a conservative, safe view.

Don't forget that more than two paths exist...the false dichotomy of a) stay on AD til 20 or 2. totally get out and never get any retirement money or Tricare is a ing lie perpetrated by the same POS commanders promoting the welfare mentality on AD. "Stay with us, and the money will keep rolling in...Boy, did you see the news? It sure looks big and scary out there. Thank God you took that 365...it will be a good career move for you. You're welcome."

Join the ARC. Keep getting paid. Stay current. Choose where you live. Build your apps. Get hired at a major. Smile excessively while reading internet chat boards.

[Lord Ratner]

The uncertainty about the economy works both ways, though. Yes, it would be awful to separate before retirement and then get furloughed from the airline, but what that means is that you're better off separating ASAP to start building seniority, because every year you delay going to the airlines is another 1000 people who get hypothetically furloughed after you, instead of before.

And the AF was also furloughing, let's not forget

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[dream big]

Guys on active duty (at the 10 year point mind you) are completely clueless about the opportunities to continue their service in the guard/reserves, mil leave and still flying for the airlines.  When I became aware of all of that my decision matrix to leave active duty went out the window, it was a no brainer.  Wait, I can do the same job, part time, still potentially work towards retirement with a quarter of the bullshit, oh and STILL fly for the airlines and make 3x what I do now, AND live where I want!? Why anyone would stay on active duty is beyond me.

The fact that these opportunities stay under wraps speaks to the skill of various commanders in protecting the company (sarcasm.)

[Vetter]

What 13 year guy is making $160k at Travis without the bonus?  Show the numbers.

[pilotguy]

41 minutes ago, Vetter said:

What 13 year guy is making $160k at Travis without the bonus?  Show the numbers.

160 with the bonus. No TDY dollars included. And your taxable income is down around 120 assuming you get no tax free months...

O-4 over 12 with dependents makes around 130K not including the value of Tricare

over 16 makes approx 135K without bonus

 

After taxes it's nowhere near as far off as people think when compared to the airlines. People forget when you make 300 you're paying around 100 in taxes...

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2017 by pilotguy

[Gazmo]

That Congressman also mentioned that he recommends the Guard and Reserves open up a lot more flying positions.  I've seen those spots be limited in some places and I haven't really heard much conversation about opening more spots up except for this article.  It seems a lot of guys would happily fly for either of those if there were part time jobs available, but obviously that would be a big paradigm shift.  Is this something being looked at seriously anywhere?  I'm speaking specifcally to TFI units that could easily absorb a larger Reserve/Guard spot increase with a lack of Active Duty spots.

This is a great idea, but we have to make it an easier, less frowned upon process to transfer people from AD to ARC without it being such a cluster f*ck and end up not worth the hassle. I know there has been people who have tried to Palace Chase and get denied and then get twice passed over and kicked out. By that time they get their major airline job and say, "F*CK IT!" to the military for good.

Another thing we are seeing in the ARC is former AD pilots are using the Guard and Reserves as a 2 or 3 year stepping stone/insurance policy and then bailing or taking non-flying positions. People are tired and the ARC is not exactly a cake walk these days depending on the airframe. There needs to be a signing bonus and an enforcable service commitment to the ARC. 5 years? Sure. We'll give you $25-30k up front to sign for a 5 year ARC tour. By that time, most people will stay ARC until 20, although there's still not much you can do about the people who just don't want to get their asses kicked anymore and decide they want to go IRR or pick up a non-flying position.

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[Vetter]

Are you forgetting the most majors have a defined contribution of 15-16%? Some still have retirement plans (Fedex and UPS).  If I worked as much at the airline as I did on AD, I'd easily be breaking $200k/year without the DC.  I'm 3 years into my airline career.

I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Tricare for life and retirement basket just like I don't put all my eggs in my airline basket.

[Sprkt69]

49 minutes ago, pilotguy said:

160 with the bonus. No TDY dollars included. And your taxable income is down around 120 assuming you get no tax free months...

O-4 over 12 with dependents makes around 130K not including the value of Tricare

over 16 makes approx 135K without bonus

 

After taxes it's nowhere near as far off as people think when compared to the airlines. People forget when you make 300 you're paying around 100 in taxes...

 

 

 

But is your math worth it to deal with AD? It's a personal choice, and some believe the power to say no is worth more than your bonus dollars.