Goldfein advocating FAA 1500 hour rule change???

[sqwatch]

I keep hearing guys say, "it's not about the money" but that's a load of bull.  It may not ALL be about the money, but at some point, money talks.  The AF should find solutions to most of the laundry list of reasons guys get out, but that is going to take years.  Make the bonus jaw-dropping and you'll keep enough guys in to buy time to figure out how to fix the rest.  I'd bet most of the guys getting hired by the majors right now are doing it for two reasons, money and work schedule.  If the AF could figure out either (or both ideally), the exodus would be far more manageable.
 

I read all these posts about idealism and how it's not about the money with a half-cocked smirk on my face- the same smirk I make after I leave the money on the table for BQZip's mom.

No one wants I admit they are a money grubbing whore, but if the gov were to make it rain and out bid the private sector, we could go back to posting pictures of boobs on this forum and move on.

Lastly, the AF aint never gonna out bid the private sector, which is cool because that's not how things should roll in a republic. I hope all who reaching over temp levels of anger can find their chi under a different banner (delta, fedex, etc). In the mean time, the ART bonuses aren't too bad.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pilotguy]

21 minutes ago, Vetter said:

Are you forgetting the most majors have a defined contribution of 15-16%? Some still have retirement plans (Fedex and UPS).  If I worked as much at the airline as I did on AD, I'd easily be breaking $200k/year without the DC.  I'm 3 years into my airline career.

I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Tricare for life and retirement basket just like I don't put all my eggs in my airline basket.

Definitely not forgetting about an airline retirement. A dude who gets an AF retirement can still work for 30ish years for an airline. Easily enough time to get a full retirement for all majors...

 

[pilotguy]

3 minutes ago, Sprkt69 said:

But is your math worth it to deal with AD? It's a personal choice, and some believe the power to say no is worth more than your bonus dollars.

The numbers are close but heck no it's not worth it. Quality of life is worth a ton in my house haha

[nsplayr]

6 hours ago, Gazmo said:

There needs to be a signing bonus and an enforcable service commitment to the ARC. 5 years? Sure. We'll give you $25-30k up front to sign for a 5 year ARC tour.
 

 

You mean like the Officer Affiliation Bonus? I took one @ $20K for a 3-year ADSC in the ARC as a 12S AFSC. Icing on the cake honestly, I was getting off AD and Palace Fronting to the Guard regardless and had no idea there was even a bonus to be had. Better to be lucky than good sometimes!

Edited June 11, 2017 by nsplayr

[nsplayr]

4 hours ago, pilotguy said:

The numbers are close but heck no it's not worth it. Quality of life is worth a ton in my house haha

You've thrown out some fast and loose math here, but is that really your response per se to Emet's expansive post that was linked earlier in the forum?

I know him personally and can vouch for his credibility. His numbers are all explicitly laid out in that post and others on his site along with the assumptions that go into them. If you want to disagree with his numbers, great, but you have to show your work in full if you want dudes to believe you.

And I'm not a pilot, so I have zero skin in this particular airline vs AD game.

To me, the only valid argument against a mil pilot bailing for the majors at the soonest opportunity is that the perceived value of the 20-year AD retirement check and Tricare for life is higher than the actual demonstrable monetary value of those benefits. That and/or just a good ole' fashion patriotic desire to serve (especially to command Groups and Wings) that perhaps can't be met in the ARC.

 

[BashiChuni]

what gives me peace about the volatile industry are the mandatory retirements.

so assuming zero growth each airline is looking at 600-900 retirements per year for the next 10 years.

recession? sure it's possible likely, but i think the odds look reasonable enough to throw my hat in the ring

 

Edited June 11, 2017 by BashiChuni

[so.it.goes]

You've thrown out some fast and loose math here, but is that really your response per se to Emet's expansive post that was linked earlier in the forum?

I know him personally and can vouch for his credibility. His numbers are all explicitly laid out in that post and others on his site along with the assumptions that go into them. If you want to disagree with his numbers, great, but you have to show your work in full if you want dudes to believe you.

And I'm not a pilot, so I have zero skin in this particular airline vs AD game.

To me, the only valid argument against a mil pilot bailing for the majors at the soonest opportunity is that the perceived value of the 20-year AD retirement check and Tricare for life is higher than the actual demonstrable monetary value of those benefits. That and/or just a good ole' fashion patriotic desire to serve (especially to command Groups and Wings) that perhaps can't be met in the ARC.

 

 

That doesn't appear the case to me at all... Everyone knows the remuneration is better for the airlines, and everyone has always known it. Your acquaintance is the one making the extraordinary claim that it's a closer curve than most have assumed, and he has provided his version of the evidence.

 

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

 

What pilotguy showed in his flippant reply is reality... Even if AD and the airlines were a dollar-for-dollar equivalent, the airlines have the killshot with the quality-of-life and (more importantly) CONTROL of life. He doesn't need to provide further verifiable evidence or numbers; he is simply declaring that, even in a best-case scenario for the AF, Big Blue still can't win.

 

Anecdotal "facts" from a decade reading this forum and interacting with fellow aircrew: Reserve is better than AD; Guard may be slightly better than Reserve.

 

Anecdotal "facts" from a shorter time of personal civilian flying experience and experience of most of my Mil peers: (The previous facts remain in place, unequivocally) Regional airline life (with the new pay scales) is better than Guard/Reserve; mainline airline life is better than Regional life.

 

I've enjoyed my military career thus far and I know everyone on here has an innate sense of duty and service within them. However, when you're talking about continuing your life beyond your commitment and maximizing dollars, time, and freedom, Mainline airline wins... And, for those who haven't experienced both worlds yet, it is not a close race.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Jaded]

Pilotguy's numbers were invalid as soon as he said that a 20 year captain makes $250,000 a year. There are third year FOs that make that at FedEx. There are third year captains that make that at Delta. 

There are other questionable assumptions, but they are dwarfed by the baseline numbers he uses. 

[so.it.goes]

Pilotguy's numbers were invalid as soon as he said that a 20 year captain makes $250,000 a year. There are third year FOs that make that at FedEx. There are third year captains that make that at Delta. 
There are other questionable assumptions, but they are dwarfed by the baseline numbers he uses. 

Exactly... I'll say it again: Dollars and/or QOL... It is not close.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[hindsight2020]

Regional life better than Guard/Res? Well damn.. I've been remiss. Thanks for that gouge brother, lemme go ahead an curtail my career AGR post haste!

...Motherf----er please.

 

[dream big]

1 hour ago, so.it.goes said:

 

Exactly... I'll say it again: Dollars and/or QOL... It is not close.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Even if 20 year retirement-> going to the airlines vs. getting out at 10 and going immediately was break even in terms of income, it completely ignores all the other stuff we love to gripe (rightfully so) on this forum.  I'd take a paycut today to escape most of the AF BS and just focus on flying (which includes doing the necessary jobs (scheduling, training, tactics, instructing etc.) to run a flying squadron. 

[HU&W]

Separating at 10 years, and working a normal career at a legacy until 65 is worth approx 5.1 million dollars, and you'll spend around 3,580 days at work.  Same parameters with retiring at 20 years, normal military progression, including a $35k bonus per year, normal military retirement, AND starting at the airlines in retirement nets you $4.9 million at age 65.  Oh, and you'll spend 4,328 days at work.  All told, you're giving up $200,000 to spend almost 800 additional days away from your family,not including deployments.

*Calculations based on legacy pay rates for a 737 FO that becomes a capt at 5 years, with Airline Pilot Central #'s.

[Bender]

Separating at 10 years, and working a normal career at a legacy until 65 is worth approx 5.1 million dollars, and you'll spend around 3,580 days at work.  Same parameters with retiring at 20 years, normal military progression, including a $35k bonus per year, normal military retirement, AND starting at the airlines in retirement nets you $4.9 million at age 65.  Oh, and you'll spend 4,328 days at work.  All told, you're giving up $200,000 to spend almost 800 additional days away from your family,not including deployments.

*Calculations based on legacy pay rates for a 737 FO that becomes a capt at 5 years, with Airline Pilot Central #'s.

 

So, given an average commitment start of 22 and retirement of 65, leaving 43 working years...10 of which is already in the AF, so 33 "well used" years:

 

I'm sacrificing 24 days a year and $6,000 a year being on active duty?

 

If someone could figure out what it is exactly they're sacrificing for...I could see the loop getting close easily enough.

 

What are we fighting (and potentially dying) for anyways?

 

Kill the 365s, scale back the deployment to the minimum necessary to prosecute the "war". If it's not increasing the timeline to drawdown, it doesn't need to exist.

 

War Machine. Hook Hand.

 

Get the politics out of the fvcking way; 2 more bros just got popped by a "friendly" last week.

 

Seriously, just kidding, but seriously...

 

Bendy

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network Forums

[Guest]

2 hours ago, HU&W said:

Separating at 10 years, and working a normal career at a legacy until 65 is worth approx 5.1 million dollars, and you'll spend around 3,580 days at work.  Same parameters with retiring at 20 years, normal military progression, including a $35k bonus per year, normal military retirement, AND starting at the airlines in retirement nets you $4.9 million at age 65.  Oh, and you'll spend 4,328 days at work.  All told, you're giving up $200,000 to spend almost 800 additional days away from your family,not including deployments.

*Calculations based on legacy pay rates for a 737 FO that becomes a capt at 5 years, with Airline Pilot Central #'s.

These numbers seem low.  Here's what I came up with, flying a narrow body, from age 34-65, 1000 hours a year, upgrading to Capt at 10, with no profit sharing, per diem or 401K:

Delta:  7.11M

United:  7.09M

American:  7.06M

SWA:  6.69M

JetBlue: 5.79M

Alaska: 5.699M

Allegiant:  5.66M

[Guest]

5 hours ago, dream big said:

Even if 20 year retirement-> going to the airlines vs. getting out at 10 and going immediately was break even in terms of income, it completely ignores all the other stuff we love to gripe (rightfully so) on this forum.  I'd take a paycut today to escape most of the AF BS and just focus on flying (which includes doing the necessary jobs (scheduling, training, tactics, instructing etc.) to run a flying squadron. 

I think (MHO) we need to move away from the conversation that says you, I, we are willing to take a pay cut for less queep. It is unnesscessary. We just need for management to acknowledge that they do have the capes to pay us more AND alleviate some of the big ills that are causing mass exodus in this mainline hiring bonanza!

 

pay more = appropriate bonus, according to Senator Cotton  it would seem they (civil leaders) have the capability to triple it. Flight pay is also long overdue for an upgrade

Edited June 12, 2017 by Guest

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, 1111 said:

I think (MHO) we need to move away from the conversation that says you, I, we are willing to take a pay cut for less queep. It is unnesscessary. We just need for management to acknowledge that they do have the capes to pay us more AND alleviate some of the big ills that are causing mass exodus in this mainline hiring bonanza!

 

pay more = appropriate bonus, according to Senator Cotton  it would seem they (civil leaders) have the capability to triple it. Flight pay is also long overdue for an upgrade

They have the capability to triple it, but so many people have said "it's not about the money" for so long we've removed any incentive for them to triple it.  If it's not about the money and the bonus doesn't work, why spend more on a program that is failing?

[Lord Ratner]

They have the capability to triple it, but so many people have said "it's not about the money" for so long we've removed any incentive for them to triple it.  If it's not about the money and the bonus doesn't work, why spend more on a program that is failing?

I'm going to be the voice of dissent here and say I hope they don't raise the bonus.

They will never compete. Congress just won't do it, so they will never realistically pay enough to make enough people stay to solve the crisis.

The right answer is to fix the system. Treat people better. Define realistic capabilities based on number of aircraft and aircrew and stick to them. Want more sorties? Give us more people and planes. The AF general level leadership needs to start giving Congress, and whoever the mythical, no-one-can-say-no-to COCOM commanders, real capability levels, and stick to them.

No more cbts just because some bureaucrat thinks it's a good idea. No more spending skilled labor on jobs that can be done by a two striper or civilian. No more making six-figure employees pick up leaves for a staff visit. Treat the talent like a resource. If that means we drop all those things and find ourselves with excess capacity, fine, do another RIF. But treat people the way they know they are worth, and then, only then, worry about the money.

A bigger bonus or more flight pay isn't going to fix this, because they will never, ever, ever be able to raise it enough. The only hope is to recapitalize on camaraderie, patriotism, and self efficacy.

I don't want them to offer more money because it's going to prolong the problem, and America can't afford it.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

[jrizzell]

Friend of a friend, who is in DC as AF Fellow attended the meeting between USAF and Airlines. His words "it was a horse abortion"; the USAF viewpoint was not looked upon with any type of sympathy. The overall gist was, we are commercial business who's goal is to make $ for our stockholders and company. I guess United was the most vocal in their displeasure. Statements like "you have mismanaged your pilots for over a decade". So I don't think it went like leadership was hoping...

[pilotguy]

17 hours ago, nsplayr said:

You've thrown out some fast and loose math here, but is that really your response per se to Emet's expansive post that was linked earlier in the forum?

I know him personally and can vouch for his credibility. His numbers are all explicitly laid out in that post and others on his site along with the assumptions that go into them. If you want to disagree with his numbers, great, but you have to show your work in full if you want dudes to believe you.

And I'm not a pilot, so I have zero skin in this particular airline vs AD game.

To me, the only valid argument against a mil pilot bailing for the majors at the soonest opportunity is that the perceived value of the 20-year AD retirement check and Tricare for life is higher than the actual demonstrable monetary value of those benefits. That and/or just a good ole' fashion patriotic desire to serve (especially to command Groups and Wings) that perhaps can't be met in the ARC.

 

No problem which numbers don't you like?

[pilotguy]

12 hours ago, Jaded said:

Pilotguy's numbers were invalid as soon as he said that a 20 year captain makes $250,000 a year. There are third year FOs that make that at FedEx. There are third year captains that make that at Delta. 

There are other questionable assumptions, but they are dwarfed by the baseline numbers he uses. 

I used that number to argue the guy above me that used that number. I know Capt's make upwards of 450 toward the end. So ya even still his "millions and millions" of dollars you'd be missing out on just isn't true. At most it's barely 2 million. 

 

Not even to mention the percentage that actually work till 65 is low. Don't have the number but I know it's below half. 

Edited June 12, 2017 by pilotguy

[nsplayr]

33 minutes ago, pilotguy said:

I used that number to argue the guy above me that used that number. I know Capt's make upwards of 450 toward the end. So ya even still his "millions and millions" of dollars you'd be missing out on just isn't true. At most it's barely 2 million. 

 

Not even to mention the percentage that actually work till 65 is low. Don't have the number but I know it's below half. 

My point is that it's not all that helpful to speak in broad terms, fight against strawmen (millions and millions!), and to guestimate things that are in fact quantifiable.

Folks have shown numbers that directly contradict what you're trying to say (sic "there's not that big a difference in lifetime pay between airlines and retiring from AD") and I guess I'd encourage you to make a stronger, fact-based argument for what you believe in if you think that you're right and others are wrong.

Dudes have done a lot of good bar napkin math to show numbers elsewhere (and at times here too), it would be great to see that level of detail in the airline-centric conversations had around BO.net as a standard.

 

[so.it.goes]

Regional life better than Guard/Res? Well damn.. I've been remiss. Thanks for that gouge brother, lemme go ahead an curtail my career AGR post haste!

...Motherf----er please.

 

 

...Motherf---er, thank you.

 

Career AGR, well done. Seriously.

 

To substantiate my statement I will say that I meant the Regional gig is "better" apropos the QOL issues that get discussed here ad nauseum. Obviously this is dependent on things like ease/lack of commute and what company you saddle up with for the stop-gap to the Majors, but I stand by my comment. I think, strike that, I KNOW that most AF guys are unaware of the changes in the regional industry that have occurred in the past year and that are continuing every month. I know this because dudes in my squadron who have been Guard their whole career and have their finger on the pulse of the aviation industry don't even know, so I'm sure AD guys are unaware.

 

I actually really enjoy my Regional gig... So much so that I get annoyed hopping back to the Guard anymore. I like the flying, I LOVE the efficiency, and the money (in conjunction with burning minimum Guard days) is not only livable now, it's more lucrative than just bumming. Is it still on the low-side compared to AD pay? Yes, on the FO seat, but upgrade times are at record-lows at most good companies, CA pay is pretty decent now, and for Mil guys, you know you should only be there for a few years, at most.

 

I like knowing that I WILL get home on my last day of a trip... If we break, there is always another jet and I won't be stranded hundreds/thousands of miles from family with another important event missed. I like working for an organization that values saving money, rather than spending capriciously. You hear it all the time, but there is something incredibly satisfying about having all the details in place, ironed-out, and ready to go before you show-up to the jet, 30 minutes prior to push.

 

Arrive, do your job, leave = Paycheck...

 

Hindsight, I'm pretty sure you put your time in as a Bum, so I know that you're familiar with how poorly that equation unfolds for a Traditional guy or someone trying to bum. You spend half your day (like I am today) trying to figure out where your rightfully-earned money from last week/month is, and the other half wondering why you came in at all.

 

So, while I certainly agree that your AGR career spot is a sweet deal, I stand by what I said, and I know there are a lot more who agree with me... I am certain of this because you can now see all the other young guys like me who are turning down the full-time Guard/Reserve gigs that people historically stabbed each other in the back to snag. A year ago I would have jumped at the chance for one of those "Holy Grail" jobs. Now that I've seen the other side, how the regionals have improved, and what the future holds, my response is (and has been to three job offers) "No, thank you". We have new 1Lt's in those spots now.

 

Interesting times, my friends.

[pilotguy]

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

My point is that it's not all that helpful to speak in broad terms, fight against strawmen (millions and millions!), and to guestimate things that are in fact quantifiable.

Folks have shown numbers that directly contradict what you're trying to say (sic "there's not that big a difference in lifetime pay between airlines and retiring from AD") and I guess I'd encourage you to make a stronger, fact-based argument for what you believe in if you think that you're right and others are wrong.

Dudes have done a lot of good bar napkin math to show numbers elsewhere (and at times here too), it would be great to see that level of detail in the airline-centric conversations had around BO.net as a standard.

 

Dude get educated please 

https://aviationbull.com/2017/mar/28/what-will-year-cost-me

[so.it.goes]

Dude get educated please 
https://aviationbull.com/2017/mar/28/what-will-year-cost-me

I'm not saying this to be antagonistic, but I think I'm genuinely a little confused about which "side" (for lack of a better term) you are supporting now.

[pilotguy]

Just now, so.it.goes said:

 

I'm not saying this to be antagonistic, but I think I'm genuinely a little confused about which "side" (for lack of a better term) you are supporting now.

 

Not really supporting a side. Just hate people who ignorantly claim you're turning down millions and millions of dollars by choosing to stay in. It's simply not true. That's all. You're turning money down but it's way closer than people realize.