2018 Active Duty UFT Board

[UPTDreamer]

5 hours ago, BE36 said:

1806 at CBM definitely has MQ1 and RQ4 on its dream sheet on the T1 side (along with a B52).  Only saw the list in passing, so maybe there is a deeper story but it wouldn't surprise me for AFPC to say one thing and do another or for someone to get inexplicably screwed due to poor timing. 

Classic Big Blue 

[Hopeful_guy]

Posted to AF Portal

"Understand you all are anxious for the 2018 UFT results. We are seeking final approval from the AFPC/CC on up. Pushing for a 28Feb18 release. Standby for the release and please keep calls and emails on the matter to a minimum as we go through the proper channels of approval at this level. Should the PSDM not release by the end of the month, it will shortly thereafter. We greatly appreciate your patience on the matter."

[afguy123]

17 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:

Posted to AF Portal

"Understand you all are anxious for the 2018 UFT results. We are seeking final approval from the AFPC/CC on up. Pushing for a 28Feb18 release. Standby for the release and please keep calls and emails on the matter to a minimum as we go through the proper channels of approval at this level. Should the PSDM not release by the end of the month, it will shortly thereafter. We greatly appreciate your patience on the matter."

I'm glad they finally posted something. But we all would have loved a hint at how it is looking this year in terms of slots. "Pushing for a 28Feb18 release with an estimated number of slots around the same as last year." At least that would make the wait easier I feel like. 

[UPTDreamer]

15 minutes ago, afguy123 said:

I'm glad they finally posted something. But we all would have loved a hint at how it is looking this year in terms of slots. "Pushing for a 28Feb18 release with an estimated number of slots around the same as last year." At least that would make the wait easier I feel like. 

Someone posted that earlier in this thread 165 initial applications with 75 pilot, 30 RPA and they didn’t know how many split abm and CSO. Then again, that was before extending the application window for late médicals 

[afguy123]

5 minutes ago, Dreamin21 said:

Someone posted that earlier in this thread 165 initial applications with 75 pilot, 30 RPA and they didn’t know how many split abm and CSO. Then again, that was before extending the application window for late médicals 

Right. But we have zero idea if those are accurate and they had the opportunity to indicate if they are, they chose not to. 

[UPTDreamer]

12 minutes ago, afguy123 said:

Right. But we have zero idea if those are accurate and they had the opportunity to indicate if they are, they chose not to. 

 

12 minutes ago, afguy123 said:

Right. But we have zero idea if those are accurate and they had the opportunity to indicate if they are, they chose not to. 

Very true.  Maybe next week they’ll update with final allocation words.

[Hopeful_guy]

1 hour ago, Dreamin21 said:

Someone posted that earlier in this thread 165 initial applications with 75 pilot, 30 RPA and they didn’t know how many split abm and CSO. Then again, that was before extending the application window for late médicals 

So these numbers were something that came down through AFPC command via email chain to SQ commanders, just though everyone should have the same info lol I’d be interested to know how much/if they’ve changed. ABM and CSO were definitely lower than last year, but interestingly Pred said last year the RPA number definitely wouldn’t change. 

[Virginian90]

That’s a lot of slots to fill compared to the last few years. Could explain why it’s taking longer to finalize (even though waiting is slowly killing me inside).

[UPTDreamer]

30 minutes ago, Virginian90 said:

That’s a lot of slots to fill compared to the last few years. Could explain why it’s taking longer to finalize (even though waiting is slowly killing me inside).

My thoughts exactly. 

[Mighty Mighty]

FWIW - a friend of mine was just notified he got an AD slot today, however, he goes to the Norwich U military school up in Vermont - not sure if the application process is the same.  

best of luck to everyone who applied! 

Edited February 16, 2018 by UPTapplicant2017

[afguy123]

Just now, UPTapplicant2017 said:

FWIW - a friend of mine was just notified he got an AD slot today, however, he goes to the Norwich U military school up in Vermont - not sure if the application process is the same or not.  

best of luck to everyone who applied! 

if he is not currently an active duty officer than this process is completely different

[Mighty Mighty]

copy - disregard! 

[Hopeful_guy]

Huge pilot drop in AFROTC. (Stole this from someone, looking for a correlation?)

2018: 643 (?? AD)

2017: 466 (60 AD)

2016: 345 (15 AD)

2015: 381 (46 AD)

2014: 369 (51 AD)

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Hopeful_guy

[afguy123]

1 hour ago, Hopeful_guy said:

Huge pilot drop in AFROTC.

 

Off the bat that looks really promising. However, the four complete years of data we have do not show a clear correlation (.76) and a relatively simple regression shows the ROTC variable not to be statistically significant (P value ~ .23) in predicting the AD variable. More data would make that conclusion more sound, but with what we have to go off of it just isn't conclusive. Nonetheless, the regression result would predict 114 pilot slots. That would be far more slots than any of us I think reasonably expect, further indicating the lack of a clear relationship between these data. 

Another (pessimistic) way to look at this is that there is zero sum game in terms of the capacity concerns of pilot training. If they can only accept so many and if they added ROTC slots, well then where did they take the slots from? USAFA already found out their jobs and I didn't hear about a large drop from them so I think the last source would be the AD pool. (Edited to add this last part after googling the numbers): USAFA had pilot slots of 445, 360, 345, and 386 from 2014-2017. If you add the ROTC, AD, and USAFA numbers for the last four years you get 805, 780, 772, and 912. Using the most conservative USAFA number from the last four years to estimate the amount for this year of 345 and adding to it the ROTC slots of 643 you get a total of 988. That already exceeds the maximum number of slots given out in the previous four years without giving out any to AD folks yet. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by afguy123

[JoshuaTheCSO]

Yes, the latter is the case. The more slots ROTC uses, the less there is for OTS, enlisted board and officer board. The priority is Academy, ROTC, then the rest. Same thing happened in FY16 when they picked up 14 total pilots from the officer board. All in all not great news since we don't have confirmed numbers. I'm still pretty hopeful though, I think they are ramping up numbers already. They are grabbing pilots to go back to UPT bases left and right. 

[Hopeful_guy]

3 minutes ago, afguy123 said:

Off the bat that looks really promising. However, the four complete years of data we have do not show a clear correlation (.76) and a relatively simple regression shows the ROTC variable not to be statistically significant (P value ~ .23) in predicting the AD variable. More data would make that conclusion more sound, but with what we have to go off of it just isn't conclusive. Nonetheless, the regression result would predict 114 pilot slots. 

What’s your AFSC? lol yeah, idk where the data was going when I stole it, AFROTC also has a 2 year lag so isn’t really current. I agree it could be good or bad for AD. 

[UPTDreamer]

10 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:

What’s your AFSC? lol yeah, idk where the data was going when I stole it, AFROTC also has a 2 year lag so isn’t really current. I agree it could be good or bad for AD. 

Very accurate the amount factored into rotc factors in washouts , people who don’t graduate, get kicked out, or don’t pass the afoqt. We really can’t go off that data. Also rotc boards are kinda a joke. My year a girl I new from a different detachment had a pcsm score of 1 but  graduated number 1 in her det and won a UPT slot. She is now a tanker pilot. Their standards are different. Prèd already said they were predicting 60 if not more numbers than last year for us. I think we can go off that and just hope for the best. 

[afguy123]

5 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:

What’s your AFSC? lol yeah, idk where the data was going when I stole it, AFROTC also has a 2 year lag so isn’t really current. I agree it could be good or bad for AD. 

What do you mean there is a lag?

In 2014 and 2015, the AD slots accounted for 5.89 and 5.85% of the slots (I don't have the OTS slots but I assume the don't get that many to sway the data). Then there was the 2016 dip to 2.13%. In 2017 it rebounded to 6.60%. Using this number and a rough guess of USAFA slots using the mean of their previous four years, the initial estimate of 75 would give the AD 6.8% of the slots. That would be the highest in the past four years. 114 slots (again I think this is unreasonable, but it is what a linear regression would imply) would account for 9.99%. 

You originally asked for a correlation. The ROTC and AD are most highly correlated at .76. AD and USAFA are next at .59. USAFA and ROTC are not correlated at all at .12. 

No matter what it comes down to waiting for the numbers to drop and to see if we are individually on the list. 

[Hopeful_guy]

28 minutes ago, afguy123 said:

What do you mean there is a lag?

They are selected during their Junior year, slotting them to the next FY.  And I meant I guess they were looking for a correlation. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Hopeful_guy

[JoshuaTheCSO]

2 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:

They are selected during their Junior year, slotting them to the next FY.  And I meant I guess they were looking for a correlation. 

This has restored my hopefulness.

Edited February 20, 2018 by JoshuaTheCSO

[Capt Ahab]

Anyone know if you have your PPL will they still send you to RPA IFT?

[RPA driver]

14 hours ago, Capt Ahab said:

Anyone know if you have your PPL will they still send you to RPA IFT?

I had my PPL and didn’t have to go through IFT. This is also the case for many of my collegues. 

[Capt Ahab]

Looks like another week with zero info

[Fryeguy6]

From the past boards/knowledge, how many packages had RPA as #1?

[Mortdude]

Random, but related... How competitive is the AD Board compared to OTS/ROTC/Etc? I'm an Academy guy who didn't apply for rated while I was there (Oops), but if you managed to graduate in the upper 75% of the class, a spot was all but guarenteed. Do we know the rough acceptance rate here?