The new airline thread

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 5/6/2020 at 10:19 AM, herkbier said:

AirGuardian, as others have posted, thanks for your candid and balanced posts on Atlas.  Good info!  I've got a phone interview with them tomorrow; while the 17 days (really it's 19 right?) on the road might be a tough pill to swallow, I think it'd be a blast to fly a 747 for a bit.  I am Palace Chase-ing and will owe some time as a Traditional Reservist.. how has that traditionally worked out with an Atlas schedule?  Since it's one big block of time, I assume dropping MilLeave for a few days knocks out the entire trip, meaning my only real option is to do my mil job during the 13/14 days at home?

Bottom line up front, industry wide mil reservists pilots have duty they must perform/requirements. Many times it conveniently chops things/balances things out. Having mil leave within a pattern doesn’t necessarily mean you lose the pattern. Most of the time they just create new lines that plug holes within the active schedule. i.e.  You have a pattern you bid/won for 10-26 May 20, but have a mil leave request that is 13-17 May (5 days of mil duty whatever it may be). Most likely get 10-12 = R1 (Home Reserve) unless a quick trip in/out is available. Not likely on a 747, but a 767 if you lived in base is possible. Away from base with travel and rest required in a 3 day period not probable. They will build trips after your 5 days or whatever if enough time remains; therefore, this conflict bid does have some goodness if you catch my drift. Just don’t be predictable if you will. Regarding pure 17 days, contract indicates you owe the company up to 17 days. I have a 15 day trip tomorrow and the 1st day happens to be a DH on AA so that counts as Day 1 working day. Sometimes 14,15,16,17 and if your on a 60 Day Line it can be split up with smaller duration trips. 10 off, 12 Fly, 6 off, 15 Fly, 12 off, 5 fly as an example. Or bank $$$ and do mil during off days and fly 17... not always 17 so there’s that gentleman.

[hindsight2020]

2 hours ago, joe1234 said:

How your unit is set up or who owns what iron honestly doesn't really matter much if you're a part timer. Even if you're a guard bum. Let the fulltimers worry about the bullshit -- that's what they're paid for.

 

Indeed. I've made a fairly recession-proof and homesteading-friendly living as a professional shield/deflector for TRs of that bullshit as you call it. 14 years and counting. No ragrets.

Based on my experience, troughers (AFRC equivalent to bums) were not immune to being bullshit handlers. Ask me how I know. Most of the time I took mandays as a trougher back in my Bush 43 Economy drought days, those days came with a lot of bullshit strings. Maybe the Guard will let ya 'fly, fvck off at the bar and go home' while on orders, but in AD-Lite I was expected to be a bullshit-handler of some sort while on a Res Code 1. At the time no sweat, beggars can't be choosers and all that. I suppose this could be MWS dependent, though I suspect it could be just another of the opportunity costs of ANG vs AD-Lite. 

 

[Sua Sponte]

At least no one here is slapped with a $162,000 bill for their training.

 

[AirGuardianC141747]

Now that is hurtful. From no college debt per say and a entry into a great career to this... College like debt and no career start for awhile perhaps. Dang!

[HuggyU2]

Always read the fine print.  

[drachen]

"The other side of the story here is that the pilot has spent the past six years completing a two year training course, and still hasn’t passed any of the tests necessary to become a pilot. The airline became fed up, and since they’re firing pilots anyway and trying to cut costs, they also decided to terminate their contract with her at this point."

 

What's that saying? Six years of pilot training down the drain, might as well join the f**ckin' peace corps.

 

https://onemileatatime.com/qatar-airways-fires-pilot/

[AirGuardianC141747]

Well that came full circle for her. Contract wise (Emirates included), they all are strict on their training payback periods. Normally it’s the 2-3 years for their type rating. Most Expats or whomever just play til the Big 3, etc. called looking to return stateside and pay whatever is prorated/leftover. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[Ryder1587]

Delta released a memo today stating they will have 7k more pilots than needed this fall and 3k more than needed next fall.  Wow.  Hope this is worst case. 

[di1630]

Heard United is furloughing 30% starting 1 Oct. 5,000 pilots.


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[SocialD]

7 hours ago, di1630 said:

Heard United is furloughing 30% starting 1 Oct. 5,000 pilots.

 

Well the media is latching on to the idea that DAL is 7,000 pilots fat this fall so we must be furloughing 7,000 pilots.  🙄

[sputnik]

8 hours ago, di1630 said:

Heard United is furloughing 30% starting 1 Oct. 5,000 pilots.


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That's not quite what United's bid meant.   At worst it set up about 2500 to be furloughed, starting in Oct.  Which definitely sucks, but is a hell of a lot less than 5k.

As for Delta's news, it also tees up 2500.  Which also sucks, but is far less than 7k.

[HuggyU2]

Furlough notices will probably go out on 1 July for UAL.  A lot can happen between now and then and it is simply a wait-and-see game at this point.  

[AirGuardianC141747]

1 hour ago, HuggyU2 said:

Furlough notices will probably go out on 1 July for UAL.  A lot can happen between now and then and it is simply a wait-and-see game at this point.  

So true, it’s definitely a “wait-and-see” circumstance. They will keep chiseling and chiseling at the sculpture until it’s true form is revealed. And then chisel some more or not hopefully. No one truly knows anything except that the Airlines form will be of a different nature/size/construct than before. The shell game and musical chairs have only just begun.
 

Economy, Businesses, families financial state, etc will dictate the future. Quite a few more folks in the airports as of late, but it was far from packed. Speaking of packed - just flew thru Dallas to SFO last week and it was packed. Looking at the digital scoreboard showed only 3 flights vs the 10 or more normally. 5 seats open on a bus. Better numbers than in late March, but the flow constriction provides higher density of course. Packed aircraft, far less and smaller herds in the terminal, but they are showing up. Would have appreciated an open seat in between (won’t mention the airline), but that didn’t stop us and only a handful of unmasked types. Whether it helps or not, you could tell those folks came out of the mountains. 2 family groups just there for a good O’l time. Quite amusing since they were not in my row. 
 

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[xaarman]

Maybe one airline can exist with passengers at current levels.  Travel numbers are coming up extremely slowly, but hey, it's progress! 

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Currently at 9% of last year!

[Lord Ratner]

The conversation is pointless (though still fun) until the restrictions are lifted. There's nowhere to fly to. 

Only after we see how quickly people come back with the companies actually furlough.

 

I think the pax will come back fast (end of summer). However, I think the ensuing recession, maybe by late fall, is going to crush everything, including the airlines, for the next couple years. Hang on tight.

[brickhistory]

Question (full disclosure:  not one, never gonna be one, but am curious and suspect I'm not the only one):

Airline X has 10,000 pilots.  Furloughs 5,000.

Does that mean that line number holder 4,999 is back on the sitting reserve or short-call list?  

Do/can they change your domicile and/or equipment flown?

[hindsight2020]

38 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

Question (full disclosure:  not one, never gonna be one, but am curious and suspect I'm not the only one):

Airline X has 10,000 pilots.  Furloughs 5,000.

Does that mean that line number holder 4,999 is back on the sitting reserve or short-call list?  

Do/can they change your domicile and/or equipment flown?

In the simplest terms yes. It's of course more nuanced than that, but to your question of downward displacement (both in seat, equipment, and yes even domicile) you got the right idea. Like I said it's nuanced, because there's also fleet capacity shuffling which affects the net effect of said displacement on an usually smaller fleet total than pre-furloughs, but again, you're in the ballpark.

 That's why you hear some folks utter the words "there are worse things than getting furloughed", and they're not being ironic when they're implying not getting furloughed can be worse. Being the QOL/schedule plug in your late40s/50s is one such of those insinuations. A lot of people don't have the stomach for that kind of scheduling reset in what is supposed to be the highest grossing years of their lives, and usually their highest overhead years (for the ones with children who are hitting college). It's also the reason many late 40s/50s career changers stuck in the regionals when these musical chairs stop, decide to exit the industry outright. In essence, they don't have the luxury of time to endure that collegiate quality of life over the pedestrian opulent luxuries like weekends offs, that they could attain in their measly 30s in a different industry.  Which is why when people say the job is not for everybody, I find it a heavily understated utterance.

On the other side of the silver linings spectrum, you had many mil pilots in the lost decade made absolute bank by attaining an active duty retirement they thought they had left on the table, by virtue of being furloughed. Coming back to airlines with true free agency courtesy of that check and lifetime universal healthcare well before the age of 65. Of course, a few decided the juice wasn't worth the squeeze after 7 years of being home every night in the ARC, and just bypassed the airline recalls anyways and never returned. Others did return for a little then bailed when it was convenient for whatever they had going on at the time.

How people cope with those lifestyle displacements in middle age is a very personal thing, since it relies a lot on people's life stage and what's going on at home, and the composition of the home of course. Good luck to all.

Edited May 17, 2020 by hindsight2020

[SocialD]

6 hours ago, joe1234 said:

This is a great time to illustrate the benefit of living in base AND living near your guard unit. Just bum until you get recalled, and sit at home and bid short call while junior because it's honestly no big deal.

It's so easy to make this into a painless career but you know what they say... you can lead a horse to water...

 

Unfortunately for many that just won't ever be a realistic option.  That said, if you can make it happen, it makes this job such an awesome gig.  I live an hour from the employee lot, 8 minutes from the Guard and 30-45 minutes from all of my family...better lucky than good!  It's why I would much rather go to our lowest paying category to stay in my current base than commute to stay on higher paying categories.

What 2020 said above is spot on.  I'd much rather be furloughed than be forced to commute to be a plug on a NB in NYC.  I don't expect it will, but if it came to that, I'd probably take a voluntary furlough.  Between part-time pay, my rentals and other side income opportunities, I'd rather not commute to sit in a crashpad in NYC for a year. 

It's events like this that illustrate the words I pass to all my buddies who think they'll ever go to airlines.  If you're considering the airlines, do it ASAP, don't screw around for years making a decision.  A few friends scoffed and said "the airlines are not for them," and even gave me a rash of shit about going to the airlines.  Fast forward 3 years and suddenly they decided the airlines, in fact, ARE for them...and they're suddenly not giving me shit lol.  So now they're 3,000 number junior to me and looking at either commuting to NYC or possibly being furloughed.  I'm expecting to just be bumped back to a narrow body in my current base.  Of course some delayed to get closer to an AGR pension, which I get to an extent.  But this situation will be a boon for those who were just outside 5 years to go to an AGR pension.

[AirGuardianC141747]

14 hours ago, joe1234 said:

This is a great time to illustrate the benefit of living in base AND living near your guard unit. Just bum until you get recalled, and sit at home and bid short call while junior because it's honestly no big deal.

It's so easy to make this into a painless career but you know what they say... you can lead a horse to water...

Definitely the perfect scenario, especially IF that place IS where you have always wanted to live. Less than 10% live in base and near their Guard Unit (commutable daily, not over an hour away) or vice versa, probably less than 5% really. If that is achievable AND you live in your actual dream spot (Don’t kid yourself it’s the place you plan on departing Earth Fix) that’s more like 1%. That my friends is a unicorn and I envy you - You are actually living the dream with some seniority prior to Kung Flu. Using current events, give it some time and Social ID is exactly right. Super senior folks will be back doing schedules they thought they had grown far away from and junior folks - well, we will see what actually happens day by day.
 

Maybe 5 folks I have ever met were Living the High 3 Dream (Base/Guard/Garden Spot Plot). Couple guys from Hawaii which makes total sense if you crave island life. International Airport/Guard Unit/Dream Home since they lived there all their lives with family and life long friends - nothing like being a native with all the benefits! On a different note: 20+ year FedEx great friend of mine has a significant amount of land out West and planned on living there with limited commutes to Memphis. He has an Active Duty retirement, making Capt Cash - But... still lives near Memphis doing Hub turns to stay more nights at home and can’t scrape any International if he wanted, while the dream remains out West awaiting him and his wife’s arrival near 65. Doing better than most, but still not quite full circle and in a holding pattern EFC 65 barring any medical issues.
 

That was a teaching moment for myself. Enjoying the ride(Work) to retirement, not as much cash as the others but no jumpseat/crash pad/commuting pressure or responsibilities, traveling Internationally on Company time/dime vs painfully at 65+ (Probably wouldn’t have the cash to do it 1st Class anyway:) - Flyer Points will be the kicker so I need Big 3 to hang on tight or my investment choices tank...
 

This career/aviation industry has always had pain associated with it and folks are walking the streets yet again, applying in panic to other areas and running back to the Guard/Reserves. Pray that true furloughs do not happen and regarding us current/former mil folks, we are the minority by a huge margin with something to fall back on or pension. Timing is everything. Those with part-time ties, able to Bum/Trough and bid short call from your dream home within an hour THAT is the ticket as  joe1234 said. I will say you are more Lucky than Good and that is what I prefer. Enjoy going to work - Check, Driving to work - Check, Pension - Check, Dream Spot - not really and we will immediately move to it when found despite furthering my distance from base, commuting/crash is not my worry. Domiciles within my company and even the Big 3 are not that alluring speaking for my family only. Lifestyle, Lifestyle, Lifestyle!!
 

Many live at their dream locations which are not domiciles or near their Guard unit. Your paradise is definitely not another's. Those who do it’s just a matter of making life easier normally. Pulling chocks - selling/buying a house, yanking kids out of school (maybe easiest point right now with no school) and packing it all up coupled with extra financial/moving expenses incurred during these times or any other time is rather painful. 

[JS]

15 hours ago, joe1234 said:

This is a great time to illustrate the benefit of living in base AND living near your guard unit. Just bum until you get recalled, and sit at home and bid short call while junior because it's honestly no big deal.

It's so easy to make this into a painless career but you know what they say... you can lead a horse to water...

Yeah, I agree that hitting the lotto and having the big 3 all in the same city is totally ideal, but definitely easier said than done.  Who wants to live right in NYC, Detroit, or Atlanta anyway (kidding if you are from there).  But I try to do my best.  Currently 2 hours from the airport, 4 hours from the unit (working on getting into a closer unit), and in town with most family/friends. 

It's like trying to maximize a math equation with 3 variables, and aside from looking for a closer Guard unit, there's not much I can do as far as moving without taking a QOL loss in some other way.  But if you can maximize at least one or two parameters (like living in domicile, or close), than at least do what you can.   

[MilitaryToFinance]

The heads of the major pilot unions are speaking at a conference today. If there is any interest in hearing what they are saying to people outside the industry I can pass along some notes.

[so.it.goes]

The heads of the major pilot unions are speaking at a conference today. If there is any interest in hearing what they are saying to people outside the industry I can pass along some notes.

Do it...

[nunya]

50 minutes ago, so.it.goes said:

Do it...

[MilitaryToFinance]

Taking everything with a grain of salt knowing their obvious bias I'm not sure how much interesting was said. Todd was the most aggressive about buybacks but it was mentioned a few times. He also pulled out the MAGA card at the end which was amusing. Lots of discussion on how firm the "no furloughs" stance really is. General consensus that the government needs to mandate (not just issue guidelines) PPE requirements so people will feel safe traveling. Southwest rep seemed to imply they had too many pilots going into this mess but I'm not sure if he misspoke in his opening remarks or I misunderstood him. 

Eric Ferguson: Allied Pilots Association, American Airlines

Chris Kenney: JetBlue Master Executive Council (ALPA)

Todd Insler: United Executive Council (ALPA)

Ryan Schnitzler: Delta Master Executive Council (ALPA)

Jon Weaks: Southwest Airlines Pilots’ Association

Todd: We need the Federal government to press hard to take this seriously, mandatory wearing of masks.

Chris: We need mandatory requirements, not guidelines or suggestions from the CDC

Jon: Need to be prepared with data and knowledge to help get confidence of traveling public back. Help understand the risk reward to make people feel ok traveling. We have 10k pilots, to correct overstaffing we already had, need to help company decide how to maneuver.

Ryan: This is a revenue problem, not a cost problem. Our costs were fine 3 months ago.

Eric: Goal is to avoid involuntary furloughs. We have short, medium, and permanent leave. 6%-7% took permanent leave of absence and well received so far. Think we will be ready when the demand comes back.

Todd: Working to mitigate furloughs, CARES act guarantees pay through October and we might need another bite at the apple. Looking through a myopic tube in forecasting the future staring at the current environment. Think furloughs won’t be as bad as some forecast.

Chris: We are still planning voluntary measures after 1 Oct.

Ryan: We are tracking the TSA data closely, still a slow start and many economies still effectively shut down. Believe it will tick up to a more rapid climb with more reopenings. My family is taking a trip in 2 weeks, think the traveling public is ready and it’s time. We have a displacement bid open that I think is oversized, company is giving themselves leeway in whether or not they award them. In my view if they do all of them I’m concerned about being hamstrung in the recovery. Think we need to see what the recovery will look like before we start making drastic changes.

Jon: Post-CARES world 1 October, with 30 days notice would need to see furlough info coming out end of August. We had 7%-8% of pilots take emergency time off. Early retirement and extended emergency time off coming in June. Think there will be enough offered that take-up will be sufficient to avoid furloughs. Think the first ETO round was good enough response that the June uptake should be strong too.

Eric: Limited by contract to 32% furloughs unless it is something “beyond the company’s control” and will be debated by lawyers. About 1/3^rd isn’t protected which goes back to the 2013 merger. Tremendous growth because of retirements since than and those pilots are not protected. I don’t think we will get beyond that 32% anyways. What we need to have is common sense regulation to let flying public feel safe flying. We will hld Mr. Parker to his vision the best we can.

Is there a scenario where they furlough enough to have to rip out seats from these regional jets? Was that ever envisioned being enforced?

Todd: This is an act of government and corporate policy, not an act of god. These are express choices being made. Insatiable desire to increase EPS with stock buybacks rather than pay down debt is not the pilot’s fault. Our business model makes money hand over fist but it was not our choice in how that money was spent. Will the market change or will they demand dividends and buybacks again in the near future? I sent them my personal socket wrench they can use to remove the seats if they want to go down that path. Contract is designed to be difficult, it is to prevent the airline from making poor decisions like furloughs as a knee-jerk reaction.

Ryan: I don’t think we would even be having this conversation if the buybacks hadn’t happened. Removing 6 seats from 76 seat regional jets are protections to dissuade them from making bad choices. The contract specifically excludes using an economic crisis for force majeure.

Sounds like it will be a cold day in hell before the unions will get behind the idea of buybacks in the future or is there some balance?

Eric: We have long complained about over-indulgence in buybacks. We are all in the same boat because our companies didn’t build fortress balance sheets going into this.

Todd: We need to decide what is a healthy balance sheet. Don’t believe that returning value to shareholders is correct, we are returning value only to some shareholders. Is it better to pay down debt and improve operations so we can charge more for tickets and bring more customers in?

Chris: Going forward there needs to be restrictions on this. The company needs to put more money into the company and employees first. JBLU has been aggressive on buybacks but now they are going to try to come to us to help get through this. We don’t have fore majeure clause, ours is also “out of company control” which might be tested. What will we do to help mitigate to prevent furloughs. Our CBA is new and hasn’t been tested yet but it is based on traditional clauses.

Eric: Restrictions also makes business sense, especially legacy with huge training volume given numerous platforms. Just a few months ago we were talking pilot shortages and those retirements are still looming.

Is seniority negotiable at this point?

Eric: Absolutely not, there is no way we will compromise that system. About safety, not just pay protection.

Todd: Offering early-out to the top of the list is one way management is bypassing the seniority problem to try and take cost out.

Ryan: Any time you can use voluntary that is the preferred path. You can use a targeted approach towards where you really need the reductions, trying to create avenues like what American has done to have least amount of negative impact.

Would you support consolidation in the industry?

Jon: Would want to build on the Airtran acquisition but I don’t think we are in that situation yet. Looking at what equipment is available with bankruptcies outside the US already. Want to protect jobs and make sure Southwest is ready to handle it in the right way. We gave them exploratory relief to try and find options but they haven’t done anything yet. I just don’t see why they would buy rather than build internally with acquired used aircraft.

Chris: Bottom line we need to focus on ourselves and our environment. I don’t think M&A is a smart direction right now.

Todd: If our revenue is still down 20% next year that means the economic situation in this country is terrible. I’m less concerned that is a real scenario. We want to improve scope clauses (not relaxation) because it is built on 1980’s mentality and there are better ways to do it. Those discussions are on pause until we get past this.

Eric: We are always in talks to make improvements and changes to the CBA, not just short-term leave. We will engage them if we believe it will be for mutual benefit to pilots and company. We are in Section 6 right now so technically everything is open.

Is the 737 MAX coming back?

Jon: We are hearing MAX still has software issues still, anticipating the earliest (more pessimistic than company) 4Q20 before it is in revenue service.

Eric: I think timeline is similar. We had secured decent financing for the MAX equipment coming in and will take advantage of that. We have parked our older and less efficient airplanes. But not a front burner issue.

If another country came in with an offer to inject capital would you be supportive of that?

Todd: How is that going to make America great? I think there is no appetite for that. How did that work out for Air Italy?

Ryan: If we go back 3 months ago airlines looked like a great investment and we will be again. Think there is plenty of capital in the US to get us back to that point again. I don’t think we need Middle East money. Emirates is parking a bunch of their A380’s so they have their own problems.

Chris: Foreign capital would endanger our jobs and structure. We would adamantly oppose that regardless of where the money came from (Emirates or Lufthansa)

[disgruntledemployee]

Thanks for posting this.  I think they're right regarding PPE/prophylaxis.  Just like after 9/11 we got new security measures, the TSA, and bombed a few other countries, the public started flying more; some from feeling safer and some from an improved economy.  Maybe that Optimus Prime face cloth will do the trick. I'm not gonna argue effectiveness of masks, but it will be like commanders and reflective belts.  They think they work, just like Jungle says.  

The other part is states relegating closure requirements to local levels.  I was in WI last week when the WI Supremes invalidated the "Safer at Home" orders.  Sure a few bars made the Utube with silliness, but what I saw were businesses trying to do the right thing and folks trying to do the same.  I'm hoping that continues and WI shows the rest of the nation that reopening can be done.  And I got my 1st haircut in 10 weeks; I wore a mask, barber lady wore a mask, it was all cool.

Out