The new airline thread

[NKAWTG]

55 minutes ago, go_cubbies22 said:

I’ve asked a similar question looking for advice and inputs before but obviously things have changed in the last few months.  I’m a Lt Col at 15 years and my ADSC expires in December.  Pre-COVID, I was planning on putting in my paperwork this summer to separate in December for the airlines.  This is also my bonus year and I have until the end of July to either not take it, take 3 years, or take the 5 years.  My STRD is December 2005 so I’m semi worried about a 365 at some point.  Am I crazy to think about signing the bonus or should I just stay a free agent and hope for a rebound in airline hiring? It would definitely be a bummer to end up serving the whole 20 because I never got hired and not have received the extra money but being a free agent and having options also sounds nice.  Appreciate any advice. 

I retired last year, coming off a deployment with little to no recency in flying.  Thought process was to do a touch and go at a regional, and get hired by this summer or fall.  That will not work out as planned, and the check of the month club will keep the lights on and mortgage paid.  SouthWest may hire next year.  Some of the next tier down, like Spirit or Frontier may also hire.  Or go under.  The big three will need to bring back all of their furloughs before they start hiring.  Regional airline pay will not exceed your retirement pay until you're 5 years in as a captain with them.  

Taking the bonus means accepting a 365 in the next 5 years.  No bonus means you can 3 day opt that deployment.  Money is good, especially if you were staying anyways.  Flexibility may be better, depending on your family situation.  Going guard or reserve as Lt Col is hard, especially on a time crunch from a 3 day opt.     

All that to say I don't know, and neither does anyone else.  

[okawner]

If a 365 is your biggest stumbling block, try to utilize the 300 in 540 allowance to reset the STRD. That's what I did. Still sucks, but I preferred it. Also, it seems your STRD is at or close to your accession date which implies that you've never been downrange much or at all in 15 years. If that is not correct you should get it adjusted to reflect your time spent TDY OCONUS. Of course, my gouge is 5 years old so if something has changed since then I'm sure someone will chime in.

 

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[Orbit]

3 hours ago, NKAWTG said:

The big three will need to bring back all of their furloughs before they start hiring.  

No U.S. carriers have furloughed any pilots yet. 

[Homestar]

50 minutes ago, Orbit said:

No U.S. carriers have furloughed any pilots yet. 

Good money that they will come October.

[MEMguy]

I would lean on staying in. I retired at 20 years and was hired by an airline. If my company furloughs at least my retirement pays the bills and we have medical. 5 years will go by fast. 

[brickhistory]

Cannot comment or recommend anything re airline (not one never gonna be one) but I punched at 13 years, turned down O-4 because I was just fed up with my era of Big Blue.

Was married to someone who was an up and comer (sts), but I was forever gonna be a crewdog and was tired of the 200+ days a year on the road.

Wife went on to turn down O-6 and, point to this story, convinced me to go Reserves which turned into AGR which turned into check of the month club.

On the other side of 50, that is now mainly my toys and whisky money, but it also is, ultimately, my F U money.

As others have stated, it's a nice cushion.  2 x O-5 retired pay = not working if you want to live simply.  We didn't and I do, but by choice, not have to.

Sucks while enduring it to get there, but once it's over, it's over and the money for breathing until you stop is nice.

[Smokin]

Go guard.

[FourFans]

On 6/23/2020 at 8:20 AM, go_cubbies22 said:

I’ve asked a similar question looking for advice and inputs before but obviously things have changed in the last few months.  I’m a Lt Col at 15 years and my ADSC expires in December.  Pre-COVID, I was planning on putting in my paperwork this summer to separate in December for the airlines.  This is also my bonus year and I have until the end of July to either not take it, take 3 years, or take the 5 years.  My STRD is December 2005 so I’m semi worried about a 365 at some point.  Am I crazy to think about signing the bonus or should I just stay a free agent and hope for a rebound in airline hiring? It would definitely be a bummer to end up serving the whole 20 because I never got hired and not have received the extra money but being a free agent and having options also sounds nice.  Appreciate any advice. 

Input from a different view: I'm in a very similar boat.  17 years, O-5 (unexpectedly APZ), not hirably current (API-6) in a staff billet.  I had a regional job lined up and ready when COVID hit.  I could have pulled my separation papers, but chose to delay them 3 months instead.  Now I'm separating in August and going to a not-FEDEX-or-UPS cargo carrier.  I'll also be joining the AFRC as a traditional reservist.  Not ideal or low-stress, but it's the right path for our family right now.  Prayer, petition, timing, and luck will dictate a unique path for you.

Had I chosen to stay, I'm sure I'd have 365 or 179 orders very soon.  Our family is tired of an impersonal organization that demands loyalty, then responds by treating people like cyphers and not caring 6 pence what it does to families.  I will still be gone a lot with my new job...which won't pay a lot.  I will still deploy with my AFRC unit.  I might even volunteer for a 179 BACN deployment or some such.  But it will be on our family's terms, not AFPC's.  That is worth it to us, and that's the path that we hear God sending us down, so we're stepping that way in faith.  

Don't let big blue paint you into the "it makes sense" corner with a bonus and 5 more years of servitude unless you WANT that road.  "It makes sense" really reads "it's really helpful to have bodies that AFPC can put where ever they want" when the Air Force tells you "it makes sense" to take the bonus.  Carefully weigh the cost on you and your family before you take that money.  IT IS NOT FREE.  It's an 'easy' road to go down.  They intentionally make it so.  Don't let the ease of that road influence your decision making.

BL: Your path may not conform to "common sense" as found on the internet or in mentorship relationships.  Tailor that path to your situation, you financial goals, your family's desires, and your own skills, calling, and goals.  A 15 year O-5 is very hirable in the ANG and AFRC.  Just yesterday I saw a 3-6 year AGR job open at the 601 AOC in Tyndall (1+15 hour drive from the Eglin bedroom neighborhoods) for an O-5.  There are opportunities everywhere. Then again, your path may take you down a road that keeps you in...it's your path.  You already know the uncertainty that comes with 5 more years about 2-3 more PCS...especially if you are a non-command O-5.  Command O-5s get even more PCSs.  There are VERY FEW roads as an O-5 where you get to homestead for 5 years...they exist, but they are rare.  Remember this, in 5 years, you're going to very likely be done with the USAF and be starting another career...and the USAF will not care at all about you or your family then.

Good luck with the decision.

[JimNtexas]

Quote

here's lots of stupid skills we take for granted like knowing how to give a good briefing.

Boy is that 10000% true, at least in the IT World.   The notion of showing up for a meeting you called on time with your visual aids ready and at least a vague idea of how the meeting should go is almost unheard of in the IT world!!!!!!!    I've retired from IT now, which is a great second career.   But geeze, there you have guys and gals with an IQ of 200 who have no concept of how to communicate efficiently with other humans.  Used to drive me nuts!

Edited June 26, 2020 by JimNtexas

[AirGuardianC141747]

16 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

.  Just yesterday I saw a 3-6 year AGR job open at the 601 AOC in Tyndall (1+15 hour drive from the Eglin bedroom neighborhoods) for an O-5.  There are opportunities everywhere. Then again, your path may take you down a road that keeps you in...it's your path.  You already know the uncertainty that comes with 5 more years about 2-3 more PCS...especially if you are a non-command O-5.  Command O-5s get even more PCSs.  There are VERY FEW roads as an O-5 where you get to homestead for 5 years...they exist, but they are rare.  Remember this, in 5 years, you're going to very likely be done with the USAF and be starting another career...and the USAF will not care at all about you or your family then.

Good luck with the decision.

Retired out of the 601st in 2017 after various staff jobs and another great unit. Peace of mind check of the month club is worth a lot of @$$ pain from this side of the fence finally. 

[go_cubbies22]

Appreciate all of the responses.

Any thoughts on signing the 3 year bonus?  I’m supposed to be at my current duty station through April 2022 so that might allow me to stay here the whole time and then hopefully get hired by the airlines and be at the front of the next hiring wave (assuming they start hiring again in 2-3 years).  I’d then have to try to get my last 2 years through guard/reserve which may or may not be difficult.

One negative I can think of is if the airlines aren’t hiring in 3 years then I’d probably miss out on the last 2 years of bonus.

Thanks again.

[SocialD]

Chances are that the airlines will be hiring in 2-3 years, and I believe the cargo haulers may still be hiring?.  Eventually people will stop being scared of their own shadow or we'll have developed a vaccine.  Think of losing out on the 2 years of bonus as an insurance policy.  In the grand scheme of things, that bonus money is small fries to what you'd be giving up on the back end of your career.  If you miss out on a few years of it, oh well...if you get hired, you'll likely see 2 more years where you'll make more than that bonus nearly every month.  

[Techsan]

I’m currently a year out from retiring @ 20 yrs, and have always planned on going airlines as soon as I’m retirement eligible, and then Corona! Ugh. I’m planning on taking the 3 year bonus now ($35K) and doing at least an extra 2 years. Here’s to hoping airlines start hiring in 3 yrs & the 365 boogeyman doesn’t find me!

[nunya]

Why?  FedEx and UPS are hiring right now. So are the ACMIs. 3 years means 1 or 2 PCSs, more time downrange, and a whole lotta BS. Shoot your shot while you're current in an airplane (assuming you are) and go test the waters. I bet you'll be ok outside the cocoon especially with $57k a year and Tricare.

[Techsan]

Why?  FedEx and UPS are hiring right now. So are the ACMIs. 3 years means 1 or 2 PCSs, more time downrange, and a whole lotta BS. Shoot your shot while you're current in an airplane (assuming you are) and go test the waters. I bet you'll be ok outside the cocoon especially with $57k a year and Tricare.

I’m in a controlled flying tour that I enjoy, so no PCS, and protected from the 365 for a couple years. Never had a strong desire to fly for either, and I know their applicant pools just skyrocketed.

[AirGuardianC141747]

Correct, Cargo is hiring at it’s normal pace and apps are in the 10s of thousands even for ACMI’s. Can’t project how long the Majors will be below the line until 1 Oct -Dec or so, hopefully early retirements and normal retirements stem the tide of any layoffs. Many will be structured/shaped differently and domestic recovery will be incredibly faster than international travel. Just a few “Big Jets” flying around and I am skeptical that even half are pax birds. Pax birds never have ALL their window shades down.

Edited July 2, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[ThreeHoler]

I’m currently a year out from retiring @ 20 yrs, and have always planned on going airlines as soon as I’m retirement eligible, and then Corona! Ugh. I’m planning on taking the 3 year bonus now ($35K) and doing at least an extra 2 years. Here’s to hoping airlines start hiring in 3 yrs & the 365 boogeyman doesn’t find me!

I will eat my hat the day you get a 365.

[Techsan]

I will eat my hat the day you get a 365.

I’m going to hold you to that when I see you in OTBH after your divert from OMAM!

[Springer]

On 6/11/2020 at 1:45 PM, jazzdude said:

 

 

 Plus I wonder how many people getting the aero matters from Riddle used SOS to get credits toward their degree? 

My FE and ATP ratings (paid via GI Bill) gave me two classes worth at Riddle.

[AirGuardianC141747]

18 hours ago, Techsan said:

I’m going to hold you to that when I see you in OTBH after your divert from OMAM!

Cool, let me know when you’re both there so I can buy some type of beverages If y’all request an off-Base pass 72 hrs prior to my arrival. Intercontinental Doha City is quite nice, might have a couple of spare rooms again. My buds couldn’t get off-Base last time to hang out due to that so-called 72 hour prior pass request, or they just hate me...

[Sua Sponte]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/in-a-twist-american-partners-with-jetblue-in-bid-for-new-york-and-boston.html

[ImNotARobot]

Many unsubstantiated rumors about FedEx starting interviews again in the near future. The most likely case is that interviews are starting back up again due to hiring pool depletion. FedEx is at peak+ loads, with cargo backed up throughout the global system. The peak+ surge may continue through peak actual (holidays) and into next year. It appears that virtually all seats are understaffed, with an emphasis on the international aircraft (777, MD-11).

The company keeps pushing off a system bid (allowing bidding of seat changes) because they can't even take a breath with the increased volume, much less allow instructors and students time in the schoolhouse. It's the polar opposite of the pax industry side. I don't mean that as a jab, I mean to say that guys are getting burned out on the cargo side, and I presume that doesn't just apply to FedEx. There are ample opportunities for 1.5x pay trips. FedEx pilots could work virtually every day they are legal if the company was choosing.

The point of sharing all that:  This is a good time to get a FedEx app refreshed if you're looking at the cargo side. Don't take my word for it...read last quarter's earnings report.

[FourFans]

Good info and thanks for that update.  I didn't realize that FedEx was that tapped out.

2 hours ago, ImNotARobot said:

Don't take my word for it...read last quarter's earnings report.

What do they say in the investment world?  Past performance is no indicator of future success?  

That said, I'd be surprised if they all of sudden hit a wall and demand evaporates.

...though, I have been surprised before...

[Hacker]

23 hours ago, ImNotARobot said:

There are ample opportunities for 1.5x pay trips. FedEx pilots could work virtually every day they are legal if the company was choosing.

Unfortunately that's fleet dependent.  I've been actively fishing for AVA, Volunteer, Draft, vacation buyback, etc, for the last 3 months on the A300 and haven't gotten a single credit hour of 1.5 pay.

[AirGuardianC141747]

Cargo is kill’n it, but like Hacker said it’s always fleet dependent and always comes down to seniority. How long it will last is anyone’s guess but it will continue into peak so early next year will be a good indication if things start to subside.

Oct 1 is coming so hopefully an uptick will take hold quickly while folks lay low during the summer, businesses eek by and checks stop arriving so the workers/services can get back to former employment if it still exists despite the up and downs the various state entities are choking the economy with.

Article regarding American and JetBlue makes sense to capture the market, etc, etc, but it’s all based on survival bottom line. Only so much to pull out of the basket and you don’t want to have an empty hand. Super doubtful any of the JetBlue starting a Europe run or even American “adding” international anytime soon. Maybe adding back to the fray and minimal at best, but it’s dismal outside the U.S. I hope they all grow, but they must refill current gaps before they can “grow.” Heavies are still being dumped left and right...

Japan Airlines just announced this week the obvious- freeze on hiring. But they did forecast 1 year for domestic and 3 years for international to be at a more sustainable load factor. It’s plausible flying around the world constantly.

LAX representatives were busier than normal yesterday and all summer as they told me these folks you see aren’t the normal pax, but low fare jockies. “Normally I help maybe 10 or more a day with Kiosks and finding their bags, these past few months it’s been hundreds and some can’t find security/TSA.” I myself see the garbage bag carry-ons from time to time now, truly astonishing. 
 

No Facts or Truths declared, just actual daily observation touring the world in/out of destinations domestically but mostly internationally.