The new airline thread

[BashiChuni]

"ahhhhhhh   roggggggaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh follow the greens" [sexy female Japanese accent]

[nsplayr]

https://careers.alaskaair.com/seattle-wa/ascend-pilot-academy-become-a-pilot/CDE46FFE084A4CE7A8148B3596922752/job/?vs=1606&utm

Alaska/Horizon opening up the latest flight academy -> regional -> mainline training pipeline.

[di1630]

Anyone in the airlines think these high fuel prices are going to hurt hiring?

[nunya]

30 minutes ago, di1630 said:

Anyone in the airlines think these high fuel prices are going to hurt hiring?

Not long term. Demographics are still necessitating mass retirements, and airports are still packed.  I think the larger inflation problems might lead to softer demand, but it’s a long way from that to appreciable drops in hiring.

[TheNewGazmo]

Anyone in the airlines think these high fuel prices are going to hurt hiring?

Most airlines price hedge fuel. Just because oil is $110 a barrel today doesn't mean the airlines are paying more for fuel than they were a few months ago.

[Butters]

On 3/12/2022 at 10:04 AM, di1630 said:

Anyone in the airlines think these high fuel prices are going to hurt hiring?

The Air Force sure hopes so.

[xaarman]

Not really, everything we’ve heard is were so behind on hiring. Some news articles posted in the last day:

 

At the conference, executives of American Airlines and Delta Air Lines said they saw record daily sales last week. In investor updates, Delta said it expected revenue for the quarter to slightly exceed its previous estimates, while United Airlines said corporate travel was improving faster than expected, reaching the highest level since the pandemic began. American said improvement in revenues would “more than offset” the increase in fuel prices, which have spiked since Russia went to war in Ukraine.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/business/airlines-travel.html

 

Outgoing American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said Tuesday at the same investor conference that the carrier recorded three of its best ticket-selling days of all time last week.

 

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2022/03/15/southwest-airlines-cuts-65000-spring-flights-with-continued-staffing-shortage/

 

"We're seeing an increase in demand that is really unprecedented," said Delta president Glen Hauenstein. "I have never seen ... demand turn on so quickly as it has after Omicron."

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/15/business/rising-airfares-fuel-prices/index.html

[ClearedHot]

Last week oil was $135 a barrel, this week it is back below $100.  The reality of supply and demand is overcoming conjecture and panic. 

[Butters]

10 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Last week oil was $135 a barrel, this week it is back below $100.  The reality of supply and demand is overcoming conjecture and panic. 

Don't you blaspheme in here. Don't you blaspheme in here. I was told by the media there would be $200 a barrel oil!!!!

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 3/3/2022 at 6:49 PM, herkbum said:

 

I wish every airport had “Follow The Greens”.

Landed in PVG yesterday and lucked out and got the landing on 17R. I think it was because we came from BKK instead of ICN. Typically feels like your taxiing across China.


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17R is outstanding. A lot easier, but I don’t mind the taxi across China if I can beat block. PVG has been good for the extra extra extra $ while it lasts.

Edited March 21, 2022 by AirGuardianC141747

[herkbum]

17R is outstanding. A lot easier, but I don’t mind the taxi across China if I can beat block. PVG has been good for the extra extra extra $ while it lasts.

Agreed on the extra $$$


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[AirGuardianC141747]

2 hours ago, herkbum said:

 

Agreed on the extra $$$


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Speaking of which, the MIA to ICN is over 16hrs so the 25% override is ok, but maybe not worth it as we are spoiled having additional 75% extra on top thanks to the cdc… time limited of course but harvest it when the going is good. I suspect before this fall/peak, company will offset the hemorrhaging with hopefully some substantial consistent cheddar. See you on the road, unless you go to greener pastures that meet your needs.

[herkbum]

Speaking of which, the MIA to ICN is over 16hrs so the 25% override is ok, but maybe not worth it as we are spoiled having additional 75% extra on top thanks to the cdc… time limited of course but harvest it when the going is good. I suspect before this fall/peak, company will offset the hemorrhaging with hopefully some substantial consistent cheddar. See you on the road, unless you go to greener pastures that meet your needs.

I do that run later this week. But have to run thru PVG before heading south.


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[AirGuardianC141747]

7 hours ago, herkbum said:

 

I do that run later this week. But have to run thru PVG before heading south.


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Just a little training this week at the MIA puzzle palace, been a chill month. Next month it’s 4 GSP-HHN runs, MIA-ICN, ICN-DEL-ICN, ICN-HKG-ANC, etc. Normally don’t beat myself up like this but harvest while you can, lay low while you cannot. Hopefully CDC levels maintain although I’m sure changes will arise.

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 3/17/2022 at 6:51 PM, Butters said:

Don't you blaspheme in here. Don't you blaspheme in here. I was told by the media there would be $200 a barrel oil!!!!

Phew, glad it didn’t. At least our outfit passes the buck/cost of fuel to the customer. Unsure when customers would stop shipping, but they just pass it to the consumer anyway. Dang media lied again…

[herkbum]

Just a little training this week at the MIA puzzle palace, been a chill month. Next month it’s 4 GSP-HHN runs, MIA-ICN, ICN-DEL-ICN, ICN-HKG-ANC, etc. Normally don’t beat myself up like this but harvest while you can, lay low while you cannot. Hopefully CDC levels maintain although I’m sure changes will arise.

Did an RFD-ICN last night-14.5 hrs. Then the MIA-ICN this weekend. Yep, take it while you can.


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[BashiChuni]

this has become the atlas air forum! get that money boys $$$

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by BashiChuni

[Sandiegosurf]

On 3/12/2022 at 12:04 PM, di1630 said:

Anyone in the airlines think these high fuel prices are going to hurt hiring?

I would think ticket prices would increase with costs to maintain margin, as long as demand doesn't slow. 

[AirGuardianC141747]

3 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

this has become the atlas air forum! get that money boys $$$

 

You’re right, nothing lasts forever getting it while you can. We can make coin but that’s normally reserved for overtime, extra duty if you will. Right now the trough is full and piling high during normal duty. When the well dries up, some of the herd will move on to greener pastures. Such is life and I wish everyone the best as you only have OneLife! Despite this industry being cyclic, find your niche/happy place!

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 3/23/2022 at 12:24 PM, Sandiegosurf said:

I would think ticket prices would increase with costs to maintain margin, as long as demand doesn't slow. 

Looks like a good trend towards booking summer trips for many pax haulers. 20% pre-Covid levels maybe even 15% and even out by the end of the year hopefully. Unfortunately War has taken over the headlines but a good by-product if any is that the virus has taken a back seat for now. Elections will hopefully help to overshadow virus spikes when that rolls around. High hopes for 2023 and some decent projections for 2024 which remains to be seen. All information from articles; therefore, nothing but best guesses except for fuel prices which are affecting airlines now and will continue to hamper faster recovery as this has always had a ripple affect. Profit sure, just less profit and if passed to the customer Sandiegosurf is right on the money!!!

*Insanity continues: Just flew to ATL from my home state TN today. Older couple next to me flew out from AZ to TN a week ago on SWA. They tried  to return this weekend on round trip ticketed flight and it was canceled. Tried to rebook, unable, tried to call their help/ticketing desk, nothing, etc. Ended up on my Delta flight to ATL to return to AZ. Cost them $1,100…EACH!!! So unhappy. Something isn’t right in the neighborhood this weekend. It seems every few weeks some carrier(s) are restructuring/hiccuping/experiencing business related compressor stalls. 
 

*Just my analysis after be-bopping around talking to many pax crews these few months: Until I find any crews happy that their schedules are like they were before the viral debacle, it’s not stable or cool runnings if you will. Takes time to bring back everything to normalcy but at least it’s rising from the terrain.

 

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Looks like a good trend towards booking summer trips for many pax haulers. 20% pre-Covid levels maybe even 15% and even out by the end of the year hopefully. Unfortunately War has taken over the headlines but a good by-product if any is that the virus has taken a back seat for now. Elections will hopefully help to overshadow virus spikes when that rolls around. High hopes for 2023 and some decent projections for 2024 which remains to be seen. All information from articles; therefore, nothing but best guesses except for fuel prices which are affecting airlines now and will continue to hamper faster recovery as this has always had a ripple affect. Profit sure, just less profit and if passed to the customer Sandiegosurf is right on the money!!!

*Insanity continues: Just flew to ATL from my home state TN today. Older couple next to me flew out from AZ to TN a week ago on SWA. They tried  to return this weekend on round trip ticketed flight and it was canceled. Tried to rebook, unable, tried to call their help/ticketing desk, nothing, etc. Ended up on my Delta flight to ATL to return to AZ. Cost them $1,100…EACH!!! So unhappy. Something isn’t right in the neighborhood this weekend. It seems every few weeks some carrier(s) are restructuring/hiccuping/experiencing business related compressor stalls. 
 

*Just my analysis after be-bopping around talking to many pax crews these few months: Until I find any crews happy that their schedules are like they were before the viral debacle, it’s not stable or cool runnings if you will. Takes time to bring back everything to normalcy but at least it’s rising from the terrain.

 

I think a lot of carriers prematurely thinned their pilot ranks when they thought the sky was falling & it would be years before demand returned. Well, here we are two years later and demand is stronger than ever. Pax carriers are only too happy to accept all the bookings & drop a shit ton of pain on pilots and schedulers, who are not equipped to handle the rapid ramp up in demand. Good on the Delta bros & now the Alaska guys for picketing. It’s gonna be an interesting new contract season as just about every airline is coming up on negotiations over the next couple years. Pilots have never been in a stronger position. Hopefully we can collectively capitalize on that. 

[SurelySerious]

It also seems like each airline has gone to a crew scheduling “optimizer” in the last two years that squeezes any fun out of the lines/pairings.

[AirGuardianC141747]

Totally agree on both accounts. Had a physical a couple of months ago and a Delta guy was there and who was totally worn out with it (his schedule). Nothing like the good times before the panic. The lack of crews is bleeding them dry (lifestyle wise) and with the “optimizer” wreaking havoc it can’t be fun. Even some of the cargo world suffers from this, but hopefully the constant hiring will alleviate a lot of it. That “optimizer” thing, geeeesh. Heard plenty about that from my friends and they mentioned they aren’t even given compression socks… it’s more like a body sock.

[HuggyU2]

2 hours ago, Prozac said:

I think a lot of carriers prematurely thinned their pilot ranks when they thought the sky was falling & it would be years before demand returned. 

The pilots that got the early retirement were the beneficiaries of this. 
I've yet to meet one that regrets doing it. 

[Prozac]

8 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

The pilots that got the early retirement were the beneficiaries of this. 
I've yet to meet one that regrets doing it. 

Absolutely! The only ones who regret it are management. Unfortunately they won’t/can’t admit they screwed the pooch and will blame “greedy” and “lazy” pilots for their airlines’ woes.