The new airline thread

[Lord Ratner]

On 5/8/2024 at 12:54 PM, Lord Ratner said:

I think the pilots hired today are going to be furloughed. I don't think it's going to be a 12-year furlough like the last ones during the bankruptcies and mergers, but still.

It's beginning. Buckle up. 

[CaptainMorgan]

It's beginning. Buckle up. 

American stops hiring. United starts again. Nothing to see here. It’s a temporary slump because they were all trying to grow, and Boeing’s inability to meet demand put a minor wrench in the works.


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[brabus]

This is 100% Boeing issues, not the beginning of a industry crash. Not saying that won’t happen in the future (cyclical and all), but this ain’t it. 

Edited June 22 by brabus

[HuggyU2]

Yeah well I for one am glad to see it slow down. 
Now, the HR idiots will hopefully be discouraged from hiring bottom-of-the-barrel pilots to "out hire" their competitors. 

[SocialD]

8 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

It's beginning. Buckle up. 

 

 

Hearing rumbles Delta is stopping classes for a while as well.   It was bound to happen sooner or later.  We have something like 20% more pilots than we did before rona, with close to the same flying hours.  Couple that with the Boeing fiasco and Bus engine issues, it makes sense.  You don't need pilots for planes you don't have, or can't fly.  With ~500 retirements/yr, that will help mitigate any furloughs.  Furlough is extremely expensive in both money and training turmoil.   I'm not saying it's not the start of something bigger, but I don't think it's time to pull the fire alarm yet.  I remember circa 2016ish, when we stopped classes for a short while, the guys came out of the woodwork to scream fire.  I guess eventually they'll be right.  

 

That said, I flew with a FO recently who left AD a few months ago with no Guard gig.  While I certainly respect the clean break, I cautioned him at being a recent hire with few backup plans.  Plenty of AOC gigs out there that require little commitment, but provides a nice insurance policy.  I didn't feel comfortable leaving until I was ~60% on the list.  It turned out that I was much better than that, but I certainly wouldn't want to he sub-75% without a backup plan.  

Edited June 22 by SocialD

[Lord Ratner]

7 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 

Hearing rumbles Delta is stopping classes for a while as well.   It was bound to happen sooner or later.  We have something like 20% more pilots than we did before rona, with close to the same flying hours.  Couple that with the Boeing fiasco and Bus engine issues, it makes sense.  You don't need pilots for planes you don't have, or can't fly.  With ~500 retirements/yr, that will help mitigate any furloughs.  Furlough is extremely expensive in both money and training turmoil.   I'm not saying it's not the start of something bigger, but I don't think it's time to pull the fire alarm yet.  I remember circa 2016ish, when we stopped classes for a short while, the guys came out of the woodwork to scream fire.  I guess eventually they'll be right.  

 

That said, I flew with a FO recently who left AD a few months ago with no Guard gig.  While I certainly respect the clean break, I cautioned him at being a recent hire with few backup plans.  Plenty of AOC gigs out there that require little commitment, but provides a nice insurance policy.  I didn't feel comfortable leaving until I was ~60% on the list.  It turned out that I was much better than that, but I certainly wouldn't want to he sub-75% without a backup plan.  

Agree with everything. I don't think the furloughs are coming in the immediate future. Definitely not this year, and maybe not even next. But I'd be shocked if Delta didn't stop hiring soon. These companies are mindless share price machines, and they tend to mimic each other on almost everything. 

 

I think the more likely future is that those plane orders that are backed up are going to be canceled. Not all, but most. The airline executives will start talking about how it worked out better this way, because they were purchasing those planes on the assumption that the 22-23 travel boom would be permanent. That was always a crazy assumption. Delta has a much older fleet, so you guys might not cancel but American's planes are relatively new. 

This is just the way it goes, and if it wasn't for Boeing an Airbus shitting the bed, I think the airlines would have continued hiring up until the day they furloughed. At least this way there will be some time for the retirements to chip away at the overage, and by the time we're in a proper recession the manning situation might not be so dire. Age 67 failing was a godsend.

To any hopefuls reading this, I still strongly strongly suggest that you get an airline job at the first company that will hire you. Something to remember is that not having an airline job is worse than being furloughed if your long-term goal is to retire as an airline pilot. That's because when you are furloughed you have no responsibility for maintaining flight currency, because you will be brought back in no matter what, retrained on the company dime, and able to regain currency flying passengers around. Then you can switch to whatever company you want. If you decide to ride the furlough out in the guard or reserve, this means you can take a non-flying job, which is generally better for the family life anyways.

However if you aren't furloughed, then you will be competing with the backlog of pilots once hiring resumes, and you will have been expected to maintain flying currency throughout the furlough period. You always have the option of declining the return from furlough if you end up finding a job that you like more.

[Lord Ratner]

8 hours ago, CaptainMorgan said:

American stops hiring. United starts again. Nothing to see here. It’s a temporary slump because they were all trying to grow, and Boeing’s inability to meet demand put a minor wrench in the works.


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$5 says all the legacies stop hiring by the end of this year. AA is obviously already there. 

[Smokin]

As has been said, the hiring decrease is purely due to aircraft availability not demand.  A problem on the supply side will drive ticket prices up and the airlines are going to max fly everything they have to capitalize on those high ticket prices.  That will likely take more pilots per aircraft than was the previous norm.  Plus, the mandatory retirements alone will force hiring unless the airlines want to shrink considerably.  The big three are going to average losing around 500-800 pilots per year to mandatory retirement each year for the next 6-9 years. 

I recall hearing the furlough math during COVID that most furloughs have been around 13% of the total pilot pool and that if the furlough is less than 18 months, the airline is better off just paying people to stay home.  Even if Delta wants to shrink by 13% (which is highly unlikely), all they have to do is wait a bit and retirements will take care of that in a much less disruptive way.

I don't think any of this will happen.  Hiring will slow with occasional pauses, but I don't see it stopping for a long time and I highly doubt a furlough.  We've had an entirely unprecedented hiring wave, it had to end sometime.  I think United's current hiring is back to their historical norms and my money is on it picking rapidly back up once the aircraft start arriving again.  As long as demand is high, the airlines want to meet that demand.

[WheelsOff]

As someone hired in the last year at a legacy, I sure hope everyone here is correct! At least the theories here are much more articulate and well thought out than the crap you read over on APC. There will always be ups/downs in the industry, but hopefully this wave of retirements/age 67 getting killed will help keep those near the bottom of the seniority list out of trouble for the time being. 
 

I too agree that I’d rather see hiring slow/stop temporarily and let the reductions come from the top of the seniority list (they’re the highest paid/work the least) rather than see airlines continue to hire until the day they furlough. The only airline I can recall who (recently) did something to this effect is UPS. Though I’m spring-loaded to be pessimistic as someone near the bottom of my list; I’m hoping the pax guys took note and are trying to follow suit…

[brabus]

Dude who does interviews at DAL, on my buddy’s JS the other day, told him they’re planning roughly 1K/year for several years. That seems fairly logical/realistic and didn’t come from SM rumor mills. So, probably as quality info as you’ll get. Of course everything is subject to change if another “black swan” happens. 

[polcat]

On 6/23/2024 at 9:25 AM, brabus said:

Dude who does interviews at DAL, on my buddy’s JS the other day, told him they’re planning roughly 1K/year for several years. That seems fairly logical/realistic and didn’t come from SM rumor mills. So, probably as quality info as you’ll get. Of course everything is subject to change if another “black swan” happens. 

This checks out with what DAL's Pilot Manager of Pilot Selection stated. Basically, their plan was to "onboard half of the 2024 pilots in the first quarter and then add a much smaller but relatively consistent number each month for the remainder of the year." Planned total is supposed to be around 1100 in 2024.

Edited June 24 by polcat
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[Danger41]

On 6/21/2024 at 11:02 PM, HuggyU2 said:

Yeah well I for one am glad to see it slow down. 
Now, the HR idiots will hopefully be discouraged from hiring bottom-of-the-barrel pilots to "out hire" their competitors. 

Hey, leave me alone!

[Bergman]

11 hours ago, polcat said:

This checks out with what DAL's Pilot Manager of Pilot Selection stated. Basically, their plan was to "onboard half of the 2024 pilots in the first quarter and then add a much smaller but relatively consistent number each month for the remainder of the year." Planned total is supposed to be around 1100 in 2024.

1100/yr was near-record hiring before the Rona.  All is well.  Remain calm. (Not you specifically but pundits in general)

[HuggyU2]

2 hours ago, Bergman said:

All is well.  Remain calm. 

Still many to be hired. 
But be realistic.  Here's an interesting stat:

A U-2 Brother was hired at UAL 3 years ago. He is 5,250 junior to me.  And was hired over 21 years after I was. 
 

The pilot 5,250 junior to him?  Hired about 30 months after him. 
 

There is a HUGE wave in front of you at UAL if you decide to work here. 
 

I was hired in a similar climate (I'll probably be 23+ years before I can hold WB cappy).  It is what it is, however it doesn't mean you cannot have a successful career. 
 

But be realistic. 

Edited June 25 by HuggyU2

[ClearedHot]

No dog in the fight (I was hired at DAL when I retired then got a much better offer from industry), but the thread has been interesting through the years.  As a person who does a LOT of business travel I can tell you it is more busy right now than I have ever seen it.  I flew from PCola to IAD last week and there were 11 flights leaving between 0610 and 0810 at an airport with 10 gates.  Security (including Pre-check), out the door.

I am assuming the Boeing issues have cut back the number of flights, but it looks like non-stop craziness to me,

[Springer]

On 6/25/2024 at 12:26 AM, HuggyU2 said:

I was hired in a similar climate (I'll probably be 23+ years before I can hold WB cappy).  It is what it is, however it doesn't mean you cannot have a successful career. 
 

But be realistic. 

THIS^^  Could not hold CA until my 13th year.  Never holding WB CA was not the end of the world.  I  cruised along in my career flying decent trips with seniority, lived where I wanted and commuted 1200 miles. Worked in the worst of times pay/BK wise but managed to retire long before 65 after being hired at 35.   

Don't be like my Deltoid Bro-in-law thinking you have to fly every Green Slip available to age 65.  Enjoy the ride and don't make it harder than it has to be.

[Lord Ratner]

44 minutes ago, Springer said:

THIS^^  Could not hold CA until my 13th year.  Never holding WB CA was not the end of the world.  I  cruised along in my career flying decent trips with seniority, lived where I wanted and commuted 1200 miles. Worked in the worst of times pay/BK wise but managed to retire long before 65 after being hired at 35.   

Don't be like my Deltoid Bro-in-law thinking you have to fly every Green Slip available to age 65.  Enjoy the ride and don't make it harder than it has to be.

That's great to hear. I want to either retire early or have my schedule controlled such that I can fly one or two turns a month and just ride the benefits.

 

I'm on the other side of the equation and hired pretty early on in the wave, 2018. I could have been a captain at year three if not for covid, and now after 6 years I'm at about 12% of the first officers in my bid status. It is a truly phenomenal quality of life at that seniority level, and the reason why I haven't upgraded despite the 50% increase in Captain's pay over first officers pay. My retirement projection puts me in the top 100 if I stay towards mandatory retirement. Even so, at this point I doubt I will end up flying the wide bodies, and I'm not planning to upgrade for at least another 4 years.

 

For everybody who have just recently joined, it takes a good 3 to 4 years to really understand the job and the many different ways to structure it. At American we have guys upgrading and flying as captains at their two-year anniversary, and the reality is that they took the upgrade well before they understood what was possible as a senior first officer. I wouldn't say they necessarily regret the decision to upgrade, but they sure do spend a lot of time complaining about the realities of being a very Junior Captain, and they are making less money than the senior first officers. 

 

Yes, it is possible that if you delay upgrading a Black swan event could crush the airlines again (it's going to happen eventually) and you will have missed the opportunity to upgrade.

 

But being the bottom bitch in any bid status, especially during a downturn, can be a lot worse. I know guys who would have much rather been furloughed than sit for 5 years commuting to sit reserve. Just make sure you talk to some of the more senior first officers about why they haven't upgraded before you make the jump.

Edited June 26 by Lord Ratner

[SocialD]

I'll echo the above.  I'm a fortunate 2014 hire and so far in my career, I've made it to 55% as a 737 FO, 92% as a 330 FO, 8% as a 717 FO and now 20% as a 717 Captain.   The best QOL and money I've made at the company is from the 717 (even as a FO), all of it attributed to my seniority in seat.  I get all the vacations I want, the trips I want and days off I want.  I have no problem making plans 9 months out because if it's not vacation, I'll get the days off no problem.  

 

Being senior in seat also allows me to have nearly complete control of my schedule.  I've already dropped, swapped and traded my entire July schedule away.  So right now I have nothing on my schedule and will just pick up easy/short turns (DTW-GRR-DTW being the holy grail) or trips that are one leg out at night with one leg home in the morning.  I'm only able to do this because of being senior in seat (and live within an hour of base).

 

Get senior and stay senior, even if it means staying a FO.  Chase the QOL and this job is pretty dang incredible.  I'm considering bidding back to 320FO because I'd be 5% in seat and hold a schedule of high time day turns.  Day for day, high time turns as a 320FO pays better than 717Capt.  Even without that, I'd probably make more in that seat anyway.  

[TreeA10]

The senior in the seat thing is great. I flew an AKL trip with a new CA (also Check Airman getting his 100 hours) and he said senior FOs should bid narrow body CA to share knowledge, experience, etc.  My response was hell no.  No point in suffering needlessly when you can get the vacation and flying schedule you want and only work 9 days a month.

[HuggyU2]

1 hour ago, TreeA10 said:

The senior in the seat thing is great. I flew an AKL trip with a new CA (also Check Airman getting his 100 hours) and he said senior FOs should bid narrow body CA to share knowledge, experience, etc.  My response was hell no.  No point in suffering needlessly when you can get the vacation and flying schedule you want and only work 9 days a month.

They want my knowledge and experience?  Then make the compensation enough that I will be enticed  

FUPM. 

[SocialD]

12 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

They want my knowledge and experience?  Then make the compensation enough that I will be enticed  

FUPM. 

 

This!  I was recently asked to be a LCA.  You need 1,000 hours as a DAL Captain...after just over 2 years, I'm just about to break 500 block hours as Captain, so I have a couple years to go.  I only like to do day turns so they'd have to be ok with me teaching that.  I'm also a habitual show at 35 min prior to push guy, so that doesn't work well with teaching.  But the biggest reason is that we only pay LCA pay on the block flown while teaching.  Pay it on my entire months guarantee/credit, whether I'm teaching or not, and I'll think about it.  Until then, I'll just continue to teach them how to exploit the contract to their gain, that's much more fun to talk about anyway.  

[mcbush]

40% 737 FO here. I flew two legs this week and made 28:15 (all at straight time, no premium). These are good times in a good job and I'm trying to enjoy/appreciate every minute of it.

The only thing I can add to the above discussion is the importance of knowing your contract. It's insane how many guys I fly with that honestly have no idea how we get paid. Gotta understand the rules of the game in order to make them work for you.

[Smokin]

Thoughts on NB at ~15% vs WB at ~80%?  I'm primarily concerned about QOL, but obviously the pay raise with WB is a nice perk.  I'm considering sitting WB reserve (roughly 2.5hrs from base) as there are virtually no WB flights that leave before noon or after 8pm.  Biggest benefits I see as a NB FO is the ability to basically dictate my schedule.  Biggest benefits to WB is more productive trips which equates to more time home or a relatively predictable reserve schedule, which would increase the attractiveness of sitting reserve at home.

[HuggyU2]

I will pick WB FO over NB FO every time. 

[nunya]

I’m making 30% less and working 90% less at 69% WB FO than 8% NB FO. So far this year I haven’t had problems making my schedule work, but I definitely didn’t get the vacation I wanted off the bat.