The new airline thread

[Lord Ratner]

30 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Not sure what you mean by “2025 at the current overage”—is this when the CPs are saying hiring will pick up, because 2025 is right around the corner?

Delta just started another Indoc class last week, so they haven’t entirely stopped and they’re still saying they’ll bring on another 1Kish next year, and United is bragging about how many they plan on hiring in the next few years as well.  While I don’t disagree that anything significant in the future can change these numbers, it will be obvious to see by early next year which way things will go.  

So just for fun, what do you think will happen?  While m gut tells me that 2K is quite a bit for AA next year, I’m sure it will be close to 500-1000.

Sorry I don't know how calendars work. 2026, not 2025.

I don't think any of the airlines are going to do a meaningful amount of hiring next year. I don't know the numbers at Delta or United, but American is absolutely overstaffed on pilots based on the number of planes we have and the passenger traffic. I think passenger traffic is going to decrease next year, not by some catastrophic amount, but it only takes a little to hit the airlines pretty hard.

We have about 850 retirements next year. If we hire less than 500 pilots then I would consider that bad news. Less than 259, really bad news. I expect the really bad news. 

I couldn't put my finger on it because I'm not an industry analyst, but all year I've been hearing about how passenger traffic is higher than it's ever been, but it just *felt* slower. My scheduling strategy is pretty dependent on pilot manning, and this was the first year that felt like the pre-pandemic norm. Turns out you can still be overmanned during the biggest travel season in human history. 

 

AA really fucked itself when it got rid of all those airplanes in a panic during the pandemic. It was a dumb idea on its own, but it has turned into a catastrophic idea given Boeing an airbuses difficulty with delivering airplanes. 

 

It's entirely possible Delta and United and Southwest are in different spots because of their fleet size, but unless you believe Boeing is going to suddenly get their shit together and deliver dozens of airplanes per month, AA is in a jam. And none of that considers our heavy debt load. I think our executives are just praying for a massive rate cut cycle by the Fed.

 

I tend to have a negative bias on these types of things, so take it for what it's worth. But you also have to remember we have by far the weakest executive team of the major airlines. I think the only thing they know how to do is imitate the other airlines poorly.

[HuggyU2]

United plans to hire 1,700 in 2025, as per the Instructor/Evaluator meeting last week. 

Edited September 17 by HuggyU2

[tac airlifter]

20 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

 American is absolutely overstaffed on pilots based on the number of planes we have and the passenger traffic. I think passenger traffic is going to decrease next year….

We have about 850 retirements next year. If we hire less than 500 pilots then I would consider that bad news. Less than 259, really bad news. I expect the really bad news. 

I've been hearing about how passenger traffic is higher than it's ever been, but it just *felt* slower. 

AA really fucked itself when it got rid of all those airplanes in a panic during the pandemic….unless you believe Boeing is going to suddenly get their shit together and deliver dozens of airplanes per month, AA is in a jam. 

I can’t grasp your analysis, it seems at odds with itself (or I’m too dumb to understand).  AA got rid of jets which is bad, there are less passengers (which means their fleet is right sized?), they’re overstaffed but if they hire less that’s bad.  I’m confused.  If there’s less passengers then wouldn't it be a smart decision to decrease fleet size so they aren’t paying for parked jets?  Unless you’re saying they suck at competing which does seem true.  
 

I think AA needs a massive leadership shake up.  Glad they fired Vasu, he clearly wanted AA to be king of ULCCs, which is fine if it’s profitable but that business model appears to be imploding.  They read the room wrong post-Covid by dumping the 757 which would have filled the (planned future) role of the XLR very well.

Curious if the 73 to PHX, 320 to ORD, 78 to LGA, etc. signals growth or simply shifting of existing personnel.

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

I can’t grasp your analysis, it seems at odds with itself (or I’m too dumb to understand).  AA got rid of jets which is bad, there are less passengers (which means their fleet is right sized?), they’re overstaffed but if they hire less that’s bad.  I’m confused.  If there’s less passengers then wouldn't it be a smart decision to decrease fleet size so they aren’t paying for parked jets?  Unless you’re saying they suck at competing which does seem true.  
 

I think AA needs a massive leadership shake up.  Glad they fired Vasu, he clearly wanted AA to be king of ULCCs, which is fine if it’s profitable but that business model appears to be imploding.  They read the room wrong post-Covid by dumping the 757 which would have filled the (planned future) role of the XLR very well.

Curious if the 73 to PHX, 320 to ORD, 78 to LGA, etc. signals growth or simply shifting of existing personnel.

AA reduced fleet size in 2020 when the entire industry was convinced that the pandemic would forever decimate travel. The E190, 757, 767 and A330 were all immediately retired. This was in part because AA was planning to receive a bunch of 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, and in part due to fear. 

At the same time, AA offered Early retirements to 62-64 year old pilots. That particular issue has worked out of the system now, but it mattered in 2021 and 2022.

AA then furloughed in September, still convinced that travel would recover slowly. 

They were wrong, and by 2021 things were picking up, leading to the 2022, 2023, and 2024 travel booms. These booms created more flying for AA than the Jan 2021 pilot count could support, until 2024. 

During that period, AA had to ramp up hiring/retraining to:

• Get all the furloughed pilots retrained and flying
• Make up for the early-retired pilots that were suddenly not a surplus
• Cover the still-huge number of age-65 retiring pilots
• Increase the pilot force to account for dozens of anticipated 737/787 deliveries. 

So we did, hiring thousands of pilots. This would be all well and good, except:

• Turns out we didn't get the aircraft we expected. But we did hire the pilots required to fly them. 
• Travel is starting to cool off, with forecasts for next year dropping. This became apparent to me recently when AirBNB got hammered on their declining reservations. 

So now we have too many. 1,300 from what I was told personally by a chief pilot. 

I hope that makes it more clear. I don't think anyone cares what I think AA should have done during the pandemic, so I'm just pointing out what the reality is. We hired too many pilots. That's why we stopped entirely. 

My subjective point is that it doesn't make sense to hire 2,000 pilots in 2025 when we will be ~1,000 pilots overstaffed on Jan 2025, and that assumes another year of record-setting passenger traffic. There are ~850 forced retirements in 2025, which would still leave us slightly overstaffed on 1Jan2026 if we hired zero pilots next year. Reduce the passenger traffic and that pilot overage goes up. 

So that's my guess. Happy talk right up until the point of calamity, then an existential crisis that requires the unionized groups to make contractual sacrifices to "save the company." That's the game they played before, and I think we will see it again. Hopefully the pilots don't fall for it. 

Just ask yourself, what incentive does an executive who is paid in stock options have to announce bad news earlier than absolutely necessary?

[polcat]

Delta is still conducting interviews. Although the talk has been 1000ish pilots in 2025, it'll most likely be somewhere around attrition numbers (~540). For everyone's sake, I hope that number is low. A buddy of mine just received a CJO last week and I've been waiting to start at Delta since I received my CJO back in April, fingers crossed I'll start in January since the last class (October) invite for 2024 went out. I would expect that they'll train most of the pilots in the first quarter, then training will slow, especially for the Summer and November/December months.

[Sua Sponte]

Alaska Airlines just merged with Hawaiian Airlines. 

[SocialD]

30 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

Alaska Airlines just merged with Hawaiian Airlines. 

 

Well, that should make things interesting.  How long are the Alaska guys fenced off our the 330 and HNL?  Lol

[Sua Sponte]

[brabus]

I wonder how they’re dealing with seniority…staple or integrate based on DOH or some other criteria? I hope I’m never in the middle of that kind of a potential shitshow. 

[SocialD]

[mcbush]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought they were both ALPA carriers, and doesn't current ALPA policy prevent stapling? 

Edit to add: Googled it. Apparently "no stapling" isn't just ALPA policy, but it was also made into federal law in 2007 after the AA-TWA debacle. Looks like the law requires that carriers "make provisions for the integration of seniority lists in a fair and equitable manner," whatever that means.

https://vlex.com/vid/seniority-integration-mccaskill-bond-statute-351067646

[brabus]

Interesting, didn’t know that. The real issue potentially coming is legacies swallowing regionals - the fuck if some regional guy goes above me on the SL!

[SocialD]

You guys are so serious! 🤣   mcbush is right, there is a policy in place for this.  Alaska and Virgin just went through this.

  

[Biff_T]

2 hours ago, brabus said:

regional

Regional trash por vida!!!!

The regionals were all I knew.  Never got swallowed (sts) by the majors.  

Edited September 19 by Biff_T
I proofread after I post

[Springer]

22 hours ago, brabus said:

I wonder how they’re dealing with seniority…staple or integrate based on DOH or some other criteria? I hope I’m never in the middle of that kind of a potential shitshow. 

I have been through two of them.  No one is ever happy.  Last one 3 year later hires placed in front of me.  Makes for a "fun" flight when flying with the other side.

[kaputt]

12 hours ago, brabus said:

Interesting, didn’t know that. The real issue potentially coming is legacies swallowing regionals - the fuck if some regional guy goes above me on the SL!

I don’t think you’re going to have to worry about that. The hiring slowdown industry wide has basically ended the “pilot shortage” at the entry level. There is a glut of CFIs desperate to get to the regionals that have 1500 hours or more and are getting no calls. The two regionals that are hiring are slapping new hires with punitive 5 year training contracts to ensure they don’t dip out during the next potential wave, and the CFIs are signing those contracts as fast as they can. 
 

All that to stay, the majors love having the regionals, and now that they survived the post COVID hiring boom, it’s back to business as usual. So no chance a regional, even if wholly owned, gets merged into its big boy parent. 

[brabus]

@kaputt Hopefully you’re right! I don’t think it’s necessarily a high threat, just the only threat along those lines that would ever be plausible for a legacy at this point. 

[brabus]

1 hour ago, Springer said:

Last one 3 year later hires placed in front of me. 

Ouch, that sucks. But at least you can forget about those days and go rip around in an RV!

[BFM this]

20 hours ago, brabus said:

Ouch, that sucks. But at least you can forget about those days and go rip around in an RV!

2013 hires…ahead of 2001 hires.

not joking 

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, BFM this said:

2013 hires…ahead of 2001 hires.

not joking 

Ah, sounds like the Ameriflot-USAir fiasco.....ask me how i know 

[brabus]

55 minutes ago, BFM this said:

2013 hires…ahead of 2001 hires.

not joking 

Dang. Where was that?

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, BFM this said:

2013 hires…ahead of 2001 hires.

not joking 

2001 hires who were furloughed very shortly after being hired at a dying airline (under a contract that did *not* allow for years-of-service accrual while furloughed), many of whom were still furloughed when they were slotted behind the 2013 pilot who was actively flying for their airline. 

 

That's not to say it was fair or justified, but it's a lot more complicated than just 2001 vs 2013. I've read through the integration documents and it's a much more nuanced picture than is often presented. "Career expectations" is the factor that few people consider, but matters the most in the integrations. 

[BFM this]

Sure.  
At the very least, it recalibrated my expectation management when I saw that.

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, BFM this said:

Sure.  
At the very least, it recalibrated my expectation management when I saw that.

Agreed. It did the same for my expectations: 

- Expect that your path to retirement will involve periods of backtracking.

- Do not expect to be making more money than you are currently making today (buy what you can afford now, not what you think you'll be able to afford later) 

- Expect to retire having made less money and accrued less seniority than the projections indicated when you were a new hire

- Expect someone else to get a better deal than you thought you were getting when you were hired (2001 TWA vs 2013 USAir, America West vs AA)

 

It's a strange job.

[SocialD]

Great words Lord!  I'd add that after 1st year pay, learn to budget on min line guarantee (65 hours at DAL) and use the rest to as funny money for toys, upgrading to 1st class ticket for vacation, and otherwise splurging on the living a great life now.  When rona hit, I remember flying with a 330FO that was freaking out becuase he "needed" 85 hours/month to maintain his lifestyle.  I can't imagine living like that and putting that stress on myself.  This may be controversial to some, but you do not HAVE to pay for your kids college.  Especially if it means you're gone 18 days/month and has a detrimental impact on your marriage.

Edited September 21 by SocialD