The new airline thread

[Heavywanabe]

On 2/24/2025 at 11:46 PM, Lord Ratner said:

 

*After*

Classes always start on a Wednesday so the next class is 5 March. 

[TreeA10]

22 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

There really isn't a way to staff for weather events. At least not under the current business model of the airlines. That doesn't matter if you're American, Delta, or United, if one of your major hubs gets hit by bad weather, the next couple days are going to be a catastrophe. One of the few things I think the airlines are unfairly maligned for.

I've wondered why the airlines haven't fixed the problem of weather induced hub debacles.  Here's my fix: Offer ground personnel premium pay to fill short notice open positions just like pilots. Provide incentives for folks to go to work on their day off.

I got ensnared in a winter cluster fuck at DFW and found out later A) the company had given folks time off because it was Christmas and B) around 40 gate agents had called in sick because they saw the day as the disaster it would become.  The really funny part was my 2nd Grade school teaching wife predicted this debacle a week prior yet the airline business professionals missed it entirely.

[jonlbs]

2 hours ago, TreeA10 said:

I've wondered why the airlines haven't fixed the problem of weather induced hub debacles.  Here's my fix: Offer ground personnel premium pay to fill short notice open positions just like pilots. Provide incentives for folks to go to work on their day off.

I got ensnared in a winter cluster at DFW and found out later A) the company had given folks time off because it was Christmas and B) around 40 gate agents had called in sick because they saw the day as the disaster it would become.  The really funny part was my 2nd Grade school teaching wife predicted this debacle a week prior yet the airline business professionals missed it entirely.

That’s the most insane part, it’s so predictable yet when it happens all we see is shock and confusion. Followed by a company message about how amazing we handled it but all I see are  1,000s of pissed off people in every terminal and delays and cancellations that stack for a week. 
 

 

[Doc]

6 hours ago, TreeA10 said:

The really funny part was my 2nd Grade school teaching wife predicted this debacle a week prior yet the airline business professionals missed it entirely.

It's been my experience that AAeroflot mgt doesn't usually "miss it", they generally (and genuinely) just don't care ...🤷‍♂️

[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

It's been my experience that AAeroflot mgt doesn't usually "miss it", they generally (and genuinely) just don't care ...🤷‍♂️

Correct. They have "done the math," and it's cheaper to deal with a few huge meltdowns than to have the excess capacity to deal with large weather disruptions. You can give all the overtime pay in the world, it doesn't give you spare aircraft and it can't free up the jet bridges when you land too many aircraft at a hub. 

 

Unfortunately the management team that has done this math also runs the least profitable legacy airline...

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Unfortunately the management team that has done this math also runs the least profitable legacy airline...

Don't forget, at least he was the second highest compensated airline CEO. Now he can afford more turtle necks.

[SurelySerious]

Listless American Airlines tries a Staff approach to business strategy absent any inspiring leadership: https://crankyflier.com/2025/02/20/american-decentralizes-as-it-tries-to-fix-its-commercial-organization/

[HeloDude]

I wonder how AA will do in the next several years?  Asking since they didn’t so great with airline travel booming the last couple years and, if I’m a betting man, we see a little bit of a slow down in the next couple of years.  

[StoleIt]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

I wonder how AA will do in the next several years?  Asking since they didn’t so great with airline travel booming the last couple years and, if I’m a betting man, we see a little bit of a slow down in the next couple of years.  

I think AA is actually doing pretty good financially. They are paying down their higher rate debt extremely aggressively which is causing their profits to be much lower compared to their peers. Their revenue, $54B, is slightly behind DAL ($61B) and UAL ($57B), but not enough for me to be alarmed. Granted, I do think AA has a much larger middle management group of do-nothings (inherited from all the mergers) that neither UAL or DAL have AND AA is much more unionized compared to DAL.

Long term, AA doesn't really prioritize long haul widebody flying. We have the least numbers of WBs on property and the smallest on order (but at least we have more than SWA/B6/F9/etc...suckers). Oh and we turned down the cheapest A350 order on the planet...but that dude at least got fired 2 years later. Granted, we have some of the newest 777-300s (2013's) BUT some of the oldest 777-200s (1999's). But with the recent interior refresh of the -200s those will be around for at least another decade...which is good because there are only about 30 more 787s on order with nothing after that. Unless a miracle, or tragedy, happens I imagine AA will be a 787 WB only airline in the future when they start to park the trips.

That being said, the average fleet age of AA is 13.8 years old which is younger than DAL (14.9) and UAL (15.9).

**All this was written by an airline pilot so don't take this as sound financial information.**

[TreeA10]

IMHO, AA is more comfortable with small jets.  If the geniuses at AA could figure out how to get an RJ across the Atlantic, they would do it.  When the A-300 crashed in NY, we parked 34 wide body jets in a heart beat with no replacements on order.  When COVID hit, 330s, 767s, and 757s were guillotined quickly with no replacements on order.  We had a 350 sim up and running but decided not to get the 350. And then we have the added bonus of being late to the party getting wide body orders into Boeing.  Out international route structure pales in comparison to United and Delta.

[SurelySerious]

IMHO, AA is more comfortable with small jets.  If the geniuses at AA could figure out how to get an RJ across the Atlantic, they would do it.  When the A-300 crashed in NY, we parked 34 wide body jets in a heart beat with no replacements on order.  When COVID hit, 330s, 767s, and 757s were guillotined quickly with no replacements on order.  We had a 350 sim up and running but decided not to get the 350. And then we have the added bonus of being late to the party getting wide body orders into Boeing.  Out international route structure pales in comparison to United and Delta.

More than time for a whole new slate of executives because of “not being comfortable with wide bodies.” It’s horseshit to run a subpar airline giving investors below average stock price returns based on an excuse. New candidates should not be related to AA, AW, or USAIR. Inflation adjusted the price of AAL right now is worse than in March of 2020.

Edit: I just looked; forget inflation adjusted, it’s lower than March 2020 right now.

[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

More than time for a whole new slate of executives because of “not being comfortable with wide bodies.” It’s horseshit to run a subpar airline giving investors below average stock price returns based on an excuse. New candidates should not be related to AA, AW, or USAIR. Inflation adjusted the price of AAL right now is worse than in March of 2020.

Edit: I just looked; forget inflation adjusted, it’s lower than March 2020 right now.

Good thing we took $12B in debt to buy the stock at much higher prices!

[Day Man]

9 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Good thing we took $12B in debt to buy the stock at much higher prices!