The new airline thread

[Karl Hungus]

2 hours ago, WheelsOff said:

Just curious if you wouldn’t mind elaborating on your optimism for the company for the rest of us?

Go to APC and read posts from the United forum around 2012-2014.  Jeff Smisek in his prime.  Doom and gloom, sky is falling, bankruptcy right around the corner, liquidation inevitable, unrecoverable death spiral.  Now, United is an industry darling.  What changed?  A new management team.

If APC had existed, you’d read the same from a theoretical Delta forum in the mid-2000s.

The industry is cyclical.  A management change at AA could/will make a huge difference.  Some think that change will happen sooner than later.  A Richard Anderson or Glen Hauenstein type hire could turn AA into a monster.  Youngest fleet of the majors and cheap hubs in areas of massive growth.  Or, Doug Parker could run AA into bankruptcy.

No matter where you end up, it will be far better than Active Duty.  That place is a toxic cesspool.  

[xaarman]

18 hours ago, WheelsOff said:

Just curious if you wouldn’t mind elaborating on your optimism for the company for the rest of us?

This article paints a scary picture of AA’s future:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4319350-american-airlines-is-in-perpetual-state-of-uncontrolled-descent

Not trying to be a naysayer...I want AA to succeed. It’s one of my top picks due to domicile locations where family lives. Just get nervous when I read articles that paint a dark sky...

So there's the public part of an airline, and then there's flying for an airline. For example, SWA is a great company, but the flying does not appeal to me anymore. I'd been happy to get hired there coming out of the military (it was one of my top 3) but now that I'm here, I'm happy I'm not in a 737 flying domestic (incl Mexico and Hawaii) for the next 30 years. This is an example of the latter, nothing in this article affects my daily life. Sure we made less than UAL/DAL, but that's for the MBAs to figure out. And surprisingly, we still made 2.9 BILLION dollars this year. When our summer operation turned into a mess, the 737 MAX was grounded, and our stock price hit a new low, we pay a billion dollars in interest on our debt... we still made 2.9 billion. 

Now, you don't see Labor coming to the defense of management. We're in negotiations. Headlines are probably going to get worse before they get better. Especially with our past. But AA, the world's biggest airline, isn't going anywhere anytime soon. 

 

17 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

As with many things "airline", beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  

There's always someone at Hickam who wishes they were at Minot. 

My friends Miami IOE sequence has layovers in St Kitts and Medellin. Another friend exclusively bids Aruba layovers.

 

16 hours ago, Karl Hungus said:

Go to APC and read posts from the United forum around 2012-2014.  Jeff Smisek in his prime.  Doom and gloom, sky is falling, bankruptcy right around the corner, liquidation inevitable, unrecoverable death spiral.  Now, United is an industry darling.  What changed?  A new management team.

If APC had existed, you’d read the same from a theoretical Delta forum in the mid-2000s.

The industry is cyclical.  A management change at AA could/will make a huge difference.  Some think that change will happen sooner than later.  A Richard Anderson or Glen Hauenstein type hire could turn AA into a monster.  Youngest fleet of the majors and cheap hubs in areas of massive growth.  Or, Doug Parker could run AA into bankruptcy.

No matter where you end up, it will be far better than Active Duty.  That place is a toxic cesspool.  

What he said, bolded for emphasis. I also wouldn't mind seeing Alan Mullaly. 

But I do think AA is going to get worse before it gets better. PS: I'm posting this from my couch while on Reserve 🤷‍♂️

Edited January 28, 2020 by xaarman

[Hacker]

9 hours ago, Karl Hungus said:

If APC had existed, you’d read the same from a theoretical Delta forum in the mid-2000s. 

APC started in early '05.

If anyone wants to do any archaeology and learn more about their airline's past, the "new" FlightInfo.com forums go back to about 2001.  If you think APC is a monkeycrap fight, go check out ol' Flightinfo's archives!

Edited January 28, 2020 by Hacker

[Homestar]

3 hours ago, Hacker said:

APC started in early '05.

If anyone wants to do any archaeology and learn more about their airline's past, the "new" FlightInfo.com forums go back to about 2001.  If you think APC is a monkeycrap fight, go check out ol' Flightinfo's archives!

I don't mind the monkey business at APC, but man, I can't deal with threads that are 100,000 pages long.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Homestar

[SocialD]

18 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

As with many things "airline", beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  

 

BeERholder Huggy...the Beerholder!

But it's true.  I flew with a Captain on the 737 that absolutely hated flying WB international.  Hated it so much that he bid back to the right seat of the 737 as soon as he could.  Sat there until he could hold the left seat of the 737.  Having flown the 737 and now WB international, I can't imagine flying our domestic system right now.  Life is just so damn good on the 330.  That's the great thing about this job, there is a little bit of everything for everyone.  To each their own.  

 

8 hours ago, Hacker said:

APC started in early '05.

If anyone wants to do any archaeology and learn more about their airline's past, the "new" FlightInfo.com forums go back to about 2001.  If you think APC is a monkeycrap fight, go check out ol' Flightinfo's archives!

Oh man, flightinfo.  I wonder what ever happened to General Lee... 

 

 

[tac airlifter]

 Xaarman what’s your opinion on AA hiring in the next few years?  I’ve seen charts projecting their hiring to continue for another 3-4 years, but would like your perspective.

specifically curious about the early 2023 timeframe...😬

[Gazmo]

 Xaarman what’s your opinion on AA hiring in the next few years?  I’ve seen charts projecting their hiring to continue for another 3-4 years, but would like your perspective.
specifically curious about the early 2023 timeframe...

We are losing over 6,000 pilots due to mandatory retirements over the next 7-8 years. Barring some sort of devastating economic recession, hiring will continue full-steam ahead for at least a decade.

[gearhog]

39 minutes ago, Gazmo said:

Barring some sort of devastating economic recession...

Now you've done it. Let's revisit this post in a year.

[baileynme]

 Xaarman what’s your opinion on AA hiring in the next few years?  I’ve seen charts projecting their hiring to continue for another 3-4 years, but would like your perspective.
specifically curious about the early 2023 timeframe...

Airline Pilot Central has pretty accurate numbers. 2023 you'll be catching the the wave just as it's about to crest. The next few years after will see 900+.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Baseops Network mobile app

[FlyingFisher]

2 hours ago, baileynme said:

Airline Pilot Central has pretty accurate numbers. 2023 you'll be catching the the wave just as it's about to crest. The next few years after will see 900+.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Baseops Network mobile app
 

For those of us that will be able to apply right around the time of that "crest" is that going to be a tough time to get in or about the same?

[BADFNZ]

I'm pretty sure AA will be hiring anyone with a pulse for the next 6-9 years, so as long as you're still breathing and have managed to keep your felony count to <2, you'll be fine.

[xaarman]

What everyone else said. We're hiring everyone right now and will be for a while. If not, UAL, DAL, or SWA will hire you. 

You won't be at the front of the wave, but short of some game-changing economic event, if you want to fly for the airlines, there will be options. All are better than Active Duty.

In full disclosure, I did get called out on Reserve, so that will be 7 days worked this month. UGH.

PS: Personal opinion, the MCAS issues set automation/single pilot ops back an additional 10 years. 

PPS: Pick the place where you can drive to work

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by xaarman

[HuggyU2]

51 minutes ago, xaarman said:

PS: Personal opinion, the MCAS issues set automation/single pilot ops back an additional 10 years. 

I had not given that much thought, but you are probably correct.  Good point.  

[Hacker]

I'm wondering when the 737 Max passenger-to-freighter conversion will be announced...and if Purple will be the launch customer, hehe.

Fred loves a good deal...and I bet there'll be a fire sale of customer return Maxes at some point.

[SurelySerious]

8 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

I had not given that much thought, but you are probably correct.  Good point.  

Strangely enough, after fielding a system with flaws where only a human could have stopped the catastrophe...Boeing concluded it should INCREASE automation.

 

This was pre CEO change, though, so maybe they have adjusted the outlook.  

[AirGuardianC141747]

ACSC in-residence for myself was a means to an end. Disliked living on base, enjoyed the guest speakers immensely, papers were mind-numbing, pay every 2 weeks/benefits invaluable during our units aircraft conversion 6-10 months and returning for qual training plus AD points = priceless. If your near the 15 year mark of AD points, not a bad idea to take the opportunity. Once over the 15 year mark points wise, then get hired by your airline of choice hopefully. Chase the remaining AD points for retirement while gaining seniority if able. 

Yes, it may cost you some seniority and “seniority is everything” does hold true for the most part - I still cannot say enough about the peace of mind and extra boost in monetary value and benefits an actual pension provides. 

*I understand there are those who lean on the airlines being sticklers for this type of strategy, but the playing field has changed. Do your 1 year probation if able, but there are no longer mil types just loitering around waiting for something to materialize as yesteryear. Normal military retirements will not fix the wave of new hire requirements (It has always been a substantial airline force multiplier, but now it’s a mere trickle) - you are in demand. Your work ethic is in demand period. 

Airline business is fickle, but should remain on the uptick for awhile due to the extreme amount of retirements. Economy can and will eventually swing as it always does, but the bleeding of folks at the top end will stave off quite a bit of economy impact at this juncture comparably speaking. The TWA/Pan Am’s have come and gone, but the current big 3 would most likely be propped up like our car companies in some sort of fashion, good, bad and ugly if something drastic were to occur. May not alleviate a furlough situation, but the threat value is less likely than in the past. Mergers can and will happen and I will never forget a great friend telling me when he was hired at United in 98’ what the CEO said during indoc in Denver, CO - “Welcome to the last job/career you will ever have!” Boom, 911 which was not truly the only reason some airlines cut pay, drained pensions and/or furloughed. Some were overextended financially and that gave them an excuse to cut some digits and limbs as my friend said. He raced to the Guard unit like many others I met to maintain employment status. When it was all said and done at United, he was #46 from the bottom to be furloughed, but had already committed to his unit. He made a choice not knowing where the cuts would end. He is back as 777 very senior FO enjoying the good life, but still wary of management forever with one eye open. Military spends money, airlines make money - real world thrives on profit and stock holder gains, not OPRs, CBTs and your relentless get the mission done attitude. You are valued, seek out what you personally value and go out and conquer. I wish you the best pick and opportunities available. Don’t get discouraged, there will be folks always looking from the outside wishing they were in - only time will tell whether you were blessed with the correct choices.

[AirGuardianC141747]

Regarding the 737 Max, not a bad idea for Fred Smith to capitalize on a conversion freighter but they have bigger fish (Amazon) to fry or deal with. Since Amazon’s ground movement inception (all those Amazon Vans/Semi Fleet) late 2016/17. FedEx has lost $25B in revenue potential and Amazon gained $250B in profit specifically from its shipping growth/capabilities. As Amazon continues to grow its network (e-commerce and bleeding into healthcare now) as a “vertical” company and NOW a horizontal giant - FedEx, UPS, etc are finding it tougher to make headway as “horizontal” (shipping agencies/they produce and sell nothing) ONLY  giants. Posted “on time delivery stats” in the latest 4th Qtr (2019) put Amazon at the top, then UPS, followed by FedEx. While they are all in the 90% plus range, this is a first.

We can’t get or keep pilots within our group based on contract issues, etc. Southern shed some 737-400s to Mesa and another while focusing on getting the 737-800s in support of the DHL contract. Our Prime support within Atlas has shed some 76 iron as well, while we have picked up a trickle more in the 74 arena. Maybe this will motivate our negotiations, lose more grasp, be bought and spilt, no one really knows but we are feeling the effects of e-commerce. Amazon has been the 800lb gorilla, but once the sort facility in CVG is flowing she is headed well past 1600lbs. Bezos and Fred dislike each other to say the least. Fred can only be a hurdle to the Bezos machine of think tanks gathering data 24/7. Before you judge vocally, unplug Alexa and place her in the dumpster at your kids school along with all the other devices.

“Welcome back John Anderton (Tom Cruise)” Retinal scan running thru a mall - Minority Report.

Edited February 4, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[Springer]

On 1/15/2020 at 6:52 AM, HossHarris said:

I’ll contrast as a delta commuter. 

Year 2/3 maddog
$136k pay, $14k PS, $23k DC, $5.5k per Diem and other stuff.  

$179k total.
360hrs of block.
60 nights on the road (not in my own bed). 

no strategies or gimmicks .... no premium or overtime flying  .... just absolute minimum effort. 
 

/bragging

Or you can go full tilt at DAL using "strategies, gimmicks, premium flying" like my $$$ obsessed brother-in-law 320CA who made $602K last yr and averaged $500k/yr for the previous 3 yrs.

I expect him to croak the day after he retires if not sooner. 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Springer

[SocialD]

5 hours ago, Springer said:

Or you can go full tilt at DAL using "strategies, gimmicks, premium flying" like my $$$ obsessed brother-in-law 320CA who made $602K last yr and averaged $500k/yr for the previous 3 yrs.

I expect him to croak the day after he retires if not sooner. 

Ya, there are some dudes doing some pretty drastic things just to fatten up their W2s.  That said, many of the "strategies, gimmicks and premium flying" can often make you way more money while working the same, if not less...maybe not your bro-in-law money though lol.  My "gimmick" has me working the same number of days (12), 2 fewer nights away from home (8) and makes me $4-6k/month more than if I just accepted my originally assigned schedule.  Some months I don't feel like working as much, so I'll knock off one of those trips, work 3 fewer days and only take a $1,500 hit in pay from my originally assigned schedule.

 

Some guys in my category go to the other extreme and instead of work 2 x 6-day trips (originally assigned schedule), will try to pick up additional trips and try to get as close to 100 hours as possible.  Those dudes are working an additional 6 days and only making an additional $2-3k over my strategy.  They will likely end up in an early grave.  They won't employ my strategy of dropping my entire schedule and pickup up more efficient trips because they're too scared of coming up short.  Better for me since they're usually senior to me.  

[Gazmo]

I try to resist jumping off short-call for the extra cash. It feels too much like retirement for me and the time off is addictive. Maybe one day when I dump the ANG for either a retirement or a non-mission ready gig, I will put my name on the OG/Premium list, but right now, it's easier to be home 22-25 days out of the month for 76 hours and telecommute some milpay or go in and fly for a double on an off day. I try to only give the unit 4 days a month. I usually can't stomach more than that these days, but it occassionally goes to 5 or 6 days depending on what is going on. This month it'll be 8 without taking mil leave, all on my off days, but this is an odd month for me. Once you're out of 1st year pay, it ends up being exponential money lost to do anything military related, which is one of the reasons why I will be a "20 and out" guy.

 

 

 

 

[slc]

14 minutes ago, Gazmo said:

I try to resist jumping off short-call for the extra cash. It feels too much like retirement for me and the time off is addictive. Maybe one day when I dump the ANG for either a retirement or a non-mission ready gig, I will put my name on the OG/Premium list, but right now, it's easier to be home 22-25 days out of the month for 76 hours and telecommute some milpay or go in and fly for a double on an off day. I try to only give the unit 4 days a month. I usually can't stomach more than that these days, but it occassionally goes to 5 or 6 days depending on what is going on. This month it'll be 8 without taking mil leave, all on my off days, but this is an odd month for me. Once you're out of 1st year pay, it ends up being exponential money lost to do anything military related, which is one of the reasons why I will be a "20 and out" guy.

 

 

 

 

Sidebar on the telecommute - what kind of work are you performing via telecommute? Anyone doing this on the AFRC side?

[Gazmo]

Sidebar on the telecommute - what kind of work are you performing via telecommute? Anyone doing this on the AFRC side?

Mostly aircrew CBT's and ADLS CBT's when I can. It is getting harder and harder these days though because of the new RUTA rules. We used to be able to grab some AT on the UTA's to free up some RUTA's to use here and there, but you lose your UTA periods now if you are on AT and present for UTA. We can do FTP's from home if it aircrew related and you are logging training with an ARMS ID code. I believe each unit should have their own telecommute policy.

 

I also know people who are raters and write OPR's at home on a RUTA. There are plenty of options.

 

[nsplayr]

https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.businessinsider.com/united-airlines-pilot-flight-school-shortage-2020-2?amp&fbclid=IwAR0wjixSq7-CZzqSNR8NF2ZN1FzibtJjS5IrjU2pDDCkynF8RW3CS0GcsL4

United buying Westwind School of Aeronautics in Phoenix, Arizona and re-branding explicitly as a flight school to train future UAL pilots.

[Hacker]

On 2/3/2020 at 2:49 PM, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Regarding the 737 Max, not a bad idea for Fred Smith to capitalize on a conversion freighter but they have bigger fish (Amazon) to fry or deal with. Since Amazon’s ground movement inception (all those Amazon Vans/Semi Fleet) late 2016/17. FedEx has lost $25B in revenue potential and Amazon gained $250B in profit specifically from its shipping growth/capabilities.

There was a *lot* more baked into the decision to drop Amazon than is displayed in those numbers.  Amazon was playing a very smart game, using FedEx lift to move its lowest yield packages (thereby taking real advantage of the cost negotiated with Purple to move them).

The "revenue potential" that was lost (which was only 3% of Express' overall business) was producing only razor-thin profit margins anyway.  What most folks didn't realize was that at the time of the divorce with Amazon, Purple had more domestic business than it had airlift to accept, and that other business had higher profit margins than the Amazon packages.  Without Amazon, Purple is now free to go after that business that had previously been rejected.

What has *really* been hurting Purple financially recently is the combination of the China trade war, Brexit, and TNT integration.  Those three have been massive punches to the bottom line, and are what is really responsible for the "we made less profit than Wall Street folks think we should have made" doom-and-gloom news of the last two quarters.

[Guardian]

Telecommute? What’s that?

 

Edit: sorry for double post. Fixed.