The new airline thread

[ImNotARobot]

Update:  UAL just cancelled the 3 March Indoc class. 

Corona virus route cancellations & 737 Max I’d guess?

Hope it’s only a short respite. FedEx hasn’t had an Indoc class since Oct; rumormill says we’ll start normal indoc again sometime between Mar-Jun ‘20.

There are 8 going to HKG in Mar ‘20...that part is not rumor. But real hiring beyond that? No pilot knows the answer.

[ImNotARobot]

https:// https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-prompts-united-airlines-to-offer-pilots-a-month-for-flight-cuts.html

Is there even a grain of truth in this article?

[gearhog]

Party's over. Calling it now: Negative Growth in 2020.

"It's just the flu."

[HuggyU2]

5 hours ago, ImNotARobot said:

Is there even a grain of truth in this article?

Yes. 
Some base/equipment/seats have been offered 50 hours of pay to take the month off. 

Edited March 1, 2020 by HuggyU2

[SocialD]

5 hours ago, torqued said:

Party's over. Calling it now: Negative Growth in 2020.

"It's just the flu."

 

Party just floated the keg...we're all just losing our buzz while they tap the next keg.  

 

37 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

Yes. 
Some base/equipment/seats have been offered 50 hours of pay to take the month off. 

 

Man, I'd take me some of that.  Vacation! 

[AirGuardianC141747]

Cargo side declared minimal growth if any since 1 Jan/1st Qtr start even before things went viral. (more realistic meaning now)
 

[BADFNZ]

23 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Yes. 
Some base/equipment/seats have been offered 50 hours of pay to take the month off. 

Sign me up!

[okawner]

Sign me up!

Better to just bid reserve and get 75 hours of pay for not flying. That open time is going to get gobbled quickly, esp. this time of year when it's pretty scarce to begin with.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Hacker]

15 hours ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Cargo side declared minimal growth if any since 1 Jan/1st Qtr start even before things went viral. (more realistic meaning now)
 

Meanwhile, there is a multi-day backlog of freight going both directions at Purple ramps across Asia, and there aren't enough airframes or crews in the system to move anything close to the demand.

[AirGuardianC141747]

Just a bunch of analysts indicating a change for the better (some growth) forecast for 2020. Modest 2% volume increase (initially 2.7%); however, revenue gains may be slightly less than forecasted back in June 2019 dependent upon pricing, tariffs, fuel, and everything else well beyond my scope. Mid 2020 will be a good indicator perhaps. Staying in the Black will be good.

Cargo backs up due to many ripples in the flow. Like you, seen plenty awaiting delivery at various stations. I don’t hang out at pure sort facilities so you have that picture. If Purple was really under any pressure they would resume additional contracts like they do every year during peak. UPS does the same. They’re doing fine, unless you have have seen any outsourcing. Just a question.

Edited March 3, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[HuggyU2]

I'm kind of curious to see how Amazon's airlift plans are affected.  Probably nothing crazy.  But I'm still interested to see how they react.  

No, Karl, I don't know Jeff B.  

[SocialD]

On 3/2/2020 at 12:52 PM, okawner said:

Better to just bid reserve and get 75 hours of pay for not flying. That open time is going to get gobbled quickly, esp. this time of year when it's pretty scarce to begin with.

 

Only works if you don't plan on going anywhere.  75 hours but you're still technically on the hook.  50 hours and no strings attached...I'd take that all year.  50 hours is more than enough for me.   

Edited March 4, 2020 by SocialD

[JeremiahWeed]

On 3/2/2020 at 12:44 PM, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Cargo side declared minimal growth if any since 1 Jan/1st Qtr start even before things went viral. (more realistic meaning now)
 

Well FedEx is making a lot of lemonade with those lemons. Hacker’s info is accurate. They’ve also said there isn’t enough time this year or aircraft in our fleet to move all the freight that’s available as a result of the lost belly freight from the pax airlines cutting Asia flights.   They are making a metric shit ton of money. Now if we can just convince them to give us lowly pilots a little taste in exchange for all the ass pain we’re enduring out on the line.  Once again through nothing other than external circumstances, the cargo airlines might start looking pretty dayum good to those who may have turned their nose up at them a month ago.

Whether you reconsider cargo or stick with chasing a pax gig, It is a worthwhile wake up call to some of you guys thinking about making the leap off active duty.   It’s been ice cream cones and blow jobs for quite a few years and it’s easy to forget ( or lack awareness to begin with)  what a shit show the airline industry can be when things suddenly get bad. Those of you considering pulling chocks without a safety net might want to reconsider that guard or reserve job.   It saved my ass when I got furloughed and just prior to that, things were looking just as rosy then as they have been lately. Just sayin’ -  give it some serious thought. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by JeremiahWeed

[Waingro]

On 2/28/2020 at 5:39 PM, Danger41 said:

Other than felonies and drugs, I hear the corona virus, the economic fallout from it, and the Max debacle has stopped United hiring. Good info?

  

On 2/29/2020 at 1:16 AM, HuggyU2 said:

No. 

96 hours later, that assessment has aged like milk. See y'all in July!

[AirGuardianC141747]

Well said Jeremiahweed on the ups and downs of this industry Cargo or Pax.
 

I see now Hackers info on Purple ramps is correct. Especially after watching the discussions on the APC FedEx Forum “Blessing in disguise”. (The 2020 2% growth projections were pre-Corona of course as stated)

In the “Blessing in disguise” topic on APC. FDX folks indicating some are burning sick leave and vaca to zero trying to mitigate exposure. Pay protection to avoid hot zone discussions, possible risks involved, re-entry into your country of residence,  potential for quarantine into Chinese hospitals, movement of cargo, all great concerns and realities - especially those residing/based in that area. Sounds like some are whoring it up flying/$$$ wise while others are avoiding the “plague” as best they can. All about tolerance levels/pay protections is what the back and forth seems to be about and what exactly do HKG based folks have going for them, or not. Some very interesting points.

*They mentioned on the FDX hiring side as a crew room rumor - 8 in Mar, 8 in Apr for a total of 16 supposedly headed for HKG basing. That says a lot if true. Any sick or vaca available as a new hire?

Edited March 5, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[gearhog]

 "United Airlines said Wednesday that it will reduce the number of April flights and suspend hiring and salary increases amid the global coronavirus outbreak that has hurt travel demand. 

United will cut its international flights scheduled for next month by 20% and those in the U.S. and Canada by 10%. Some wide-body planes will be parked, the company said Wednesday.

New hiring will be suspended through “at least” June 30, “except for roles that are critical to our operation,” the airline said.

CNBC previously reported that the airline postponed start dates for new pilots, offered some pilots a month off at reduced pay, and warned employees about further flight cuts beyond the reductions in Asia flights it announced last week.

The changes are likely to be followed by similar moves at other airlines, which are facing the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, as the coronavirus sickens more than 90,000 people."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united-cutting-flights-in-april-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

I'm a pax hauler, and although my seniority is likely good enough to see me through tough times, I'm not optimistic. If I were a cargo guy, I'd be far less concerned. Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index. Oceangoing freight transport is experiencing a giant traffic jam that isn't going to be back up to speed anytime soon. Tens of billions in supply chain products are either stacked and overflowing at shipping ports or sitting idle on dry bulk carriers anchored at sea. The only way to get your important shit anytime soon is air freight.

Today, IATA is predicting a 10% reduction in passenger numbers for the US and Canada markets and a $23 billion decrease in revenue.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-05-01/

Edited March 5, 2020 by torqued

[SocialD]

Eh, I'm guessing we'll have a much smaller PS check this year, which if you treat it as you should (found money), it shouldn't be a big deal.  If it came to that I'd think we may just stop hiring for a while.  At a company meeting this week, they said they don't have plans on stopping hiring/classes anytime soon (of course...hire until you furlough lol) as we're already behind on hiring.  Also, if anyone is turning their nose up at cargo haulers, they're idiots.  The only reasons I didn't go there was I was called by DAL first and I live very close to a major DAL base.  

Honestly, if this situation is scaring you, you may not have the stomach to be in this industry.  I'd expect this to be one of the many threats of the day we'll see over the coming decades.  Then again, I was wrong one other time...so there's that!

[AirGuardianC141747]

https://media.swalife.com/docs/news/public/media/video/swatv/2020/200309GaryCoronaCaptioned.mp4
 

Brace for impact. While the airline industry will reset itself accordingly  and continue to thrive in the near future hopefully, it just goes to show you that this “FLU like syndrome“ should be given the respect it deserves, but not panic driven like it has been. Perception is reality for the public. Drive on America, Thrive on.

Good lesson on not to live in fear, but be prepared as possible in the event of such unknowns. Everything is not always cherry or will stay at the top of its game endlessly. 

Don’t cast away your Reserve component opportunities at a moments notice. (proved highly valuable after 9/11). Build yourself that seniority cushion first. Although grass is not always greener, this is just a cyclic event as history has proven. There is light at the end of this tunnel and as I mentioned before, I hope it gets brighter sooner than later. 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[SocialD]

We could probably do the world a favor and kill the 24 hours mainstream med..errr...entertainment channels!  I'm all for giving a virus its due but damn this is a bit ridiculous. Either way, this too shall pass.  

[Gazmo]

The media is more dangerous than any virus. They take a close second behind nuclear weapons in capability to destroy the planet and they don't give a rat's ass as long as dumb people are sitting on their couches eating up the BS they are reporting.

 

We had A terrible common flu season this year. I want about two decades without getting the flu and I got it this year. I know at least a dozen people who also got it around me. The death rate for Coronavirus just slightly worse than the common flu and mainly for the elderly.

[SurelySerious]

And then Angela Merkel said “70% of the country could be infected.”

First off, if we’re just throwing out hypotheticals, make it more farcical, 10% rule it. Second, as the leader of a country that’s pretty irresponsible to say with roughly no basis. 

[Tank]

I think this will all blow over by Memorial Day.  
Something else will happen that will divert the media’s attention away from Covid19 and people will start traveling again because they won’t want to cancel their vacations or give up their fun.  
 

*Maybe Epstein died of Covid19...*
🤣

[AirGuardianC141747]

Epstein, hahaha, that’s good stuff right there.

I myself just had the flu. Came back from a trip. Saw the Doc, one word about international travel and bam, into quarantine glass cube for 90 min while they did their tests. Diagnosed as Flu type B, and then they kicked me back to the house and recovered in a week.

[Danger41]

On 3/11/2020 at 2:51 PM, Tank said:

I think this will all blow over by Memorial Day.  
Something else will happen that will divert the media’s attention away from Covid19 and people will start traveling again because they won’t want to cancel their vacations or give up their fun.  
 

*Maybe Epstein died of Covid19...*
🤣

I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit Iran soon after the 2 Americans were killed recently. I can already see the “Wag the Dog” pundits talking about Trump is only doing that to distract from the virus and the handling of it.

[sqwatch]

The media is more dangerous than any virus. They take a close second behind nuclear weapons in capability to destroy the planet and they don't give a rat's ass as long as dumb people are sitting on their couches eating up the BS they are reporting.
 
We had A terrible common flu season this year. I want about two decades without getting the flu and I got it this year. I know at least a dozen people who also got it around me. The death rate for Coronavirus just slightly worse than the common flu and mainly for the elderly.

You are delusional


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk