The new airline thread

[AirGuardianC141747]

4 hours ago, Gazmo said:

Well, last week before the shit really hit the fan, I had enough intuition to start procuring my full-time job back at the unit because I just knew this wasn't going to go well. Hopefully the odds (and my experience) are in my favor, but it'll be interesting to see what the future holds since I've showed my cards. 

I hope you land rubber side down and sit-out this fiasco comfortably. Great to hear you didn’t cut ties with your unit. Always good to have options which is a gem. May you land safely and content, at least for now while this thing burns up, down and eventually out...

[SocialD]

5 hours ago, Gazmo said:

I really don't know what else to say.

 

I guess I would say calm down, pour a scotch and smoke a lucky.  I certainly don't blame people for jumping on orders as you worry about providing for the family.  Guys going on orders will help the situation out a bit.  Thankfully, the airlines are wisely waiving the 5 year USERRA clock...hopefully this is expanded.  None of us should be anywhere close to pulling up the floor boards to keep the fire going. 

 

At DAL, we've been running at such high ALVs, that simply dropping us down to the bottom of the ALV window will help ease off furloughs.  We still have lots of training going on which will keep instructors in the sims (requiring more guys on the line and on the list).  In the next year or two we'll retire over 1300-1800 pilots which only helps.  It may be a bumpy road for a bit, but we may come out of this a little better off than many are thinking right now.  As we speak, AAL just rolled out a pretty generous voluntary leave package (even continue to get paid to age 65 while essentially retire early) which will be helpful as well.  DAL is offering 55 hour no fly lines (SILs), which pays me about the same as a month of orders would as a 18 yr LTC.  I hope I'm actually senior enough to get a SIL.

 

Ohio (and many others) just shut down all bars and restaurants, the fed cut the rate of 0 and fired up the quantitative easing machine.  Trump just invoked the Stafford act which means we may all be headed to a federally mandated home quarantine....that's bad for everyone (other than killing the virus lol), so we're all in this mess together.  If it comes down to it and we do start to furlough, I think I'll be ok with about 4,800 junior to me.  That said, if I have the option to go on orders and it will save a junior guy from furlough, then I'll probably jump to mloa, even if its just 4ish months of orders.  I've run the number and as an O-5, just with all the AFTPs/UTAs/AT, I'll be sitting at ~50k gross.  Add in 4 months of orders and I'm at 100k.  It's not anyway what I'm making now,  but it's way more than I really need to live comfortably and still enjoy my life.  Thankfully I paid cash for my house and all my toys!  Anyway, I'd have a tough time looking a fellow pilot in the eye and saying sorry bro, I can't take that pay cut as he gets kicked to the street.  Were all in this together.  

 

This is a great lesson in not being a complete dick about losing pay to come out to the gaurd (standing by for the people's elbow from Hindsight2020😁).  Also a lesson in not leaving your mil gig right away and continuing to promote if able. I haven't run the numbers (mentioned above) for O-4, but I'm certainly glad I finished ACSC as the extra pay will only be helpful in times like this.  Speaking of, time to get ready for a day at the Guard.  Supposed to double turn...we'll see if we even turn a wheel today.  

Edited March 16, 2020 by SocialD

[AirGuardianC141747]

5 hours ago, torqued said:

Trump is going to shut it all down this week.

Landed JFK today (Sunday 4 PM) and as we taxied to the cargo ramp I counted 11 Delta Heavies (767, A330, 777) clustered amongst ground vehicles (ice trucks, etc.) behind the terminal which had another actually 4 Delta Heavies attached to it. Are these 11 aircraft backup maintenance aircraft, overflows or “parked”???

Our Tahoe driver drove thru part of NYC to the Holland Tunnel since it was faster he said. We never go thru the City in the evenings due to traffic. We listened to the Mayor speech live as he indicated NYC schools are closed officially and first plan is to evaluate reopening end of April and be prepared to call the 2019-2020 school year over. Driver was right, it was quicker up to Dover, DE barely any traffic therefore constant fast movement... Granted, it was Sunday but very weird.

 

[Gazmo]

Good insight. Thanks. Ironically I hadn't seen the email from APA about the AAL LOA last night before I wrote that. I am a little less anxious about the future now there seems to be some relief, at least short term. I just hope things don't get worse.

As far as 55 hr SIL's; I haven't read through our contract yet, but what's the general policy for being on a paid leave of absence and doing mil duty? I am assuming inactive duty is as any other. What about a deployment during your paid leave? You would have to convert that to a mil leave?

[pilot]

On 3/13/2020 at 9:57 PM, nunya said:

"Offering early retirements" means nothing in modern airlines. With no A plan at most carriers (and those with A plans aren't hurting right now), you walk away with nothing extra if you leave at age 61 or 64+364.

AA just offered early outs for 50/hrs a month pay. 

Voluntary Permanent LoA, age 62+ paid 50 hours until age 65, retain all benefits and 401k, etc as above, remaining sick deposited into HSA.

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by pilot

[the g-man]

Landed JFK today (Sunday 4 PM) and as we taxied to the cargo ramp I counted 11 Delta Heavies (767, A330, 777) clustered amongst ground vehicles (ice trucks, etc.) behind the terminal which had another actually 4 Delta Heavies attached to it. Are these 11 aircraft backup maintenance aircraft, overflows or “parked”???
Our Tahoe driver drove thru part of NYC to the Holland Tunnel since it was faster he said. We never go thru the City in the evenings due to traffic. We listened to the Mayor speech live as he indicated NYC schools are closed officially and first plan is to evaluate reopening end of April and be prepared to call the 2019-2020 school year over. Driver was right, it was quicker up to Dover, DE barely any traffic therefore constant fast movement... Granted, it was Sunday but very weird.
 

Sounds like a special kind of hell having to endure a car service JFK-DOV


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[nunya]

13 minutes ago, pilot said:

AA just offered early outs for 50/hrs a month pay. 

Voluntary Permanent LoA, age 62+ paid 50 hours until age 65, retain all benefits and 401k, etc as above, remaining sick deposited into HSA.

 

Yep. Created out of thin air.  Looks like a good job by APA.  

[so.it.goes]

AA just offered early outs for 50/hrs a month pay. 

Voluntary Permanent LoA, age 62+ paid 50 hours until age 65, retain all benefits and 401k, etc as above, remaining sick deposited into HSA.
 

Seems like that would be a pretty good deal for most guys who lived mostly within their means, and/or have only one wife on the record.

[brabus]

2 hours ago, so.it.goes said:

 

Seems like that would be a pretty good deal for most guys who lived mostly within their means, and/or have only one wife on the record.

 

It’d be crazy not to take this deal, unless you’re on wife #2+ and/or have been financially retarded in the past.  

[the g-man]

It’d be crazy not to take this deal, unless you’re on wife #2+ and/or have been financially retarded in the past.  

You’d have to be nuts not to. Over $200k a year (on group 4 Capt) to retire early. I’d be calling today to get signed up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gazmo]

You’d have to be nuts not to. Over $200k a year (on group 4 Capt) to retire early. I’d be calling today to get signed up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You would "think" that, but these are pilots making $350k+ a year to work how much to begin with? We shall see. It would be real nice to know how many pilots the company needs to take these deals or even better; how many at each base in each piece of equipment. Obviously in the short-term, it helps the company if more senior people take this deal. Higher salaries means more payrole savings. Long term, the Jr guys under 20% who would be on the hitlist for furlough would rather be at 55 hrs of pay than 0. I can "live" off 55 hrs 2nd year Airbus pay, especially with guard income, but going to 0 wouldn't do me very well.

[SocialD]

You're talking about a group of guys that were told their entire career that they didn't need to save their own cash for retirement because their pensions were a sure thing...we all know how that worked out for many of them.  A lot of them have been through the B-scale, a furlough or two, a bankruptcy and more black swans events than they can count.  They all know that the company can wipe their ass with this agreement should they go back into bankruptcy or otherwise become insolvent.  My guess is many of the old timers will be very wary of such an agreement.  I know many of the old timers on the DAL boards are essentially scoffing it because they know it can be taken away with the stroke of a pen.  Not saying you won't have some takers, but I don't think it's will be as slam dunk as some think.

[HossHarris]

The $3 question is ... if AA declares bankruptcy are those guys still getting their 50 hrs?

[AirGuardianC141747]

10 hours ago, the g-man said:

Sounds like a special kind of hell having to endure a car service JFK-DOV


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Won’t lie, not fun after operating from Anchorage. At least it was a Tahoe and not a Camry and have a couple of days off sleeping/working out (nothing worth venturing out for ) here in DE. Heck, even the Wendy’s shutdown dining-in at 8 PM / drive thru only for the foreseeable future today. Lucky I made a deal with manager today, making the drive thru a walk thru if I don’t want to eat hotel food or microwave food. This is getting messy, but I have food access for now and I am logistically sound with TP.

Catch up on my reading, rest and movies I guess.

[hindsight2020]

18 hours ago, SocialD said:

This is a great lesson in not being a complete dick about losing pay to come out to the gaurd (standing by for the people's elbow from Hindsight2020😁).  Also a lesson in not leaving your mil gig right away and continuing to promote if able.

Nah, no elbow coming from me brother. BL as much as this place has been a bit of an echo chamber of optimism bias for the past 6 years, that is of no concern to me either way. I don't wish furloughs on anyone.

Back on topic: I think even those furloughed today are going to be fine in the long term. The excel spreadsheets were always ridiculous fantasy-ridden garbage. That doesn't make the airline career garbage in the least, it just means that expectations need management.

I sincerely wish every single airline guy or aspirant a quick recovery to income parity. As full time cadre, we're doing our part in trying to shore up our TRs in this moment of need.

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by hindsight2020

[xaarman]

Not a day goes by where I wish I stayed in. Job security included. 

 

Live below your means, keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3, save appropriately, and enjoy the ride. 

 

Always hope for the best but plan for the worst. Still better than Active Duty.

[Duck]

Not a day goes by where I wish I stayed in. Job security included. 
 
Live below your means, keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3, save appropriately, and enjoy the ride. 
 
Always hope for the best but plan for the worst. Still better than Active Duty.

I am so glad I decided to keep a Guard job and not just cut ties completely. Being able to bring in extra money for just a little bit of work is a good shock absorber in times like these.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[xaarman]

I'm gonna go a different route - I was a clean cut and don't miss the Guard/Reserve either. Still have the Post 9/11 GI Bill and Law school if everything else fails and/or I lose my medical.

 

Totally signing up for our 55 hours/mo of paid leave for six months if offered though. Donno bout you all, but I can easily live on 10k/month (401k incl) for free. 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by xaarman

[HuggyU2]

On 3/17/2020 at 9:35 AM, xaarman said:

Live below your means

keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3

save appropriately

enjoy the ride. 

I'm 2 for 4.  

If I don't get out of the house in the near future, it will probably go to 1 for 4.  

[AirGuardianC141747]

If we could just get our public on board expeditiously like they did/have here in Hong Kong, we would have had a much quicker recovery no doubt. It’s also a cultural based momentum and previously had their butts kicked by SARS and gained a huge learning curve from it, so there’s that. Although the initial choke point has passed for the US, we really need to hunker down accordingly and tamper down the effect as best we can as a society. Met with mask kits, temp checks (airport & hotel), paperwork, escorted as needed, even the hotel TV remotes are sealed accordingly. People may argue overkill, but the effectiveness whatever it may be specifically is undeniably working. If we’re going to subsidize incomes (not calling it a bailout, it’s a natural disaster if you will) with $ our nation really doesn’t have, discipline and adherence must be attained. The more protracted this becomes, the worse it will be. Just my thoughts.

Super eerie landing here midnight and taxing to the cargo ramp where there’s minimum parking available (Very large ramp) and cargo/workers everywhere and like an anthill. Other side almost completely dormant, no movement, no people to be seen, pax carrier silhouettes on the vast ramps where they left a few lights on. Truly surreal...

You can’t make this sh*t up. We need to get these economies rolling again.

Great to hear some measure of subsidies/provisions are being given and people have planned accordingly. Drive on, Press on and be safe!

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 3/18/2020 at 4:30 AM, xaarman said:

Donno bout you all, but I can easily live on 10k/month (401k incl) for free. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[AirGuardianC141747]

I know it’s situation dependent, but from my vantage point I totally  agree with xaarman. It’s rather odd some younger newcomers show up and talk about when they make their Big Move to one Major airline or another and start rolling in the cash needing the 3-400K (it’s weird that they don’t know it doesn’t happen overnight).
Maybe they are smart and are just “Preppers”, getting ready for the 2-3 wife, RV, Boat package, etc. I still let them know, if you can’t manage 3-400K, you definitely can’t manage 1-200K. I know there’s a bottom limit, but it’s being tested right now.

Edited March 20, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[MilitaryToFinance]

This is a pretty incredible graphic (from https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-flight-capacity-coronavirus/ hopefully they update weekly). If you want to look on the bright side the China line suggests a pretty rapid recovery once we turn the corner. China is such a weird country I hate to extrapolate just from that datapoint but their air traffic and general industry is rapidly coming back online. Hard to say what this does for tourism travel over the next ~6 months even after the virus is "handled."

[mcbush]

Obviously this is going to put a stop to airline hiring for a significant amount of time. I've seen estimates as short as 6 months and as long as 10 years, with a current consensus in the ~2 year range. Once hiring does start up again, do you guys see it initially being more competitive than it has been in the recent past for mil guys, based on the potential glut of guys whose UPT commitments are now expired, who got enough hours at their regional to be competitive, etc? Just wondering how much of my new-found free time I should be dedicating to the more ancillary parts of the resume like formal education.

[Sua Sponte]

How many people on here have pulled their separation/retirement due to this?