Commanders are dropping like flies this year

[Chuck17]

11X colonels are also manned at just over 90%, so this isn't a huge shock, really. 12X are +120%.

That said, I watched 13x O6 selects that I know personally bow out and retire over the last 18 months, some prior to but most just after just after pin on. There were barely 300 selects on my board - and I don't know that many people! 

So long as airline hiring continues, folks will walk away for a line number - its just a reality. More will go at the 24 year mark - for a variety of reasons, mostly because they hit TIG - leaving fewer choices for Wing Command and General Officer...

Quite a difference from 10-ish years ago.

Chuck

[HossHarris]

Remember kids …. You can be the best of what’s left !

[Dogs-N-Guns]

Former 11X. Completed my ATP as part of pre-deployment training in another aircraft. Departed the fix during sequestration when they had too many pilots. Completed an AF funded STEM PhD. Current engineering job is roughly double new FO pay, no commuting, no bidding, home every night. Airline pay would probably catch up in 3-5 years, but my plan is to be fully retired by then and RVing around the country. I fly ultralights to scratch the flying itch.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

Completed an AF funded STEM PhD. Current engineering job…

That sounds like a lot of work compared to flying a legacy 13-15 days a month.

[Dogs-N-Guns]

True, but I haven't flown anything with more that 40 hp in 10 years so a I assumed a regional tour would be required. Since the wife doesn't want to move (I don't really want to either), commuting is required. Assuming 14 days in two 7 day blocks plus 4 days for round trip commuting puts me at 18 days. Not really that much better than the normal 20 day (5x4) 9 to 5. When I did the math, it would take 3 years before I reach my current salary in the airlines with a break even point around 5 years. I started pretty high up the food chain in my current position, so I probably only cost of living raises and performance bonuses. In the long run, the pilot route would make more, assuming you get to a legacy and upgrade. I don't want to have to work past 50, so the long term potential earning didn't really factor in my decision. Still too early to tell if I like my new job, but so far no complaints. Realizing this got a little off topic...

[FourFans]

@Dogs-N-Guns, I think you're in the sweet spot.  Well done!  I wouldn't change a thing if I were you.

For the benefit of those following and making their own decisions.  This math...

59 minutes ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

Assuming 14 days in two 7 day blocks plus 4 days for round trip commuting puts me at 18 days.

...is highly incorrect.  I don't know of many legacy carriers that schedule that way, and the ONLY way you have a long commute is if you're Anchorage based.  I know because I'm Anchorage based.  My commute is about 20 hours long.  In the cargo world...that isn't currently hiring...the ANC commuters tend to aim for 12-14 day blocks of time away with about a day prior commute followed by home within 24 of the trip being done.  It doesn't always work out that way, but I probably have one of the longest commutes in the community (NW Florida to ANC...even dudes living in Europe have a shorter commute), I'm only 2 years at my company, and I still manage only one commute a month (normally).  It'll only get better.

I'll let some legacy guy explain their commute, but the math quoted above is not representative of what the airline guys do.  Most of the Delta dudes I know where I live have about a 2-3 hour commute to work and are home the same day their trip ends.  It's not bad at all.

Edited January 11 by FourFans

[Dogs-N-Guns]

3 minutes ago, FourFans said:

My commute isn't two days long.

My math was 1 day commute there, 1 day commute home for each 7 day trip, two trips per month for a total of 4 days commuting. This is what I assumed as a FNG FO regional as the bad side of normal. I would assume it gets much better after 1-2 years. This was my conclusion after anecdotal conversations with my friends that went the airline route and reading multiple forums posts. There is only 1 legacy domicile within 2 hours of where I live, with no guarantees I would get that, so I assumed commuting (don't want to move), which really affected my decision. YMMV.

[Springer]

1 hour ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

My math was 1 day commute there, 1 day commute home for each 7 day trip, two trips per month for a total of 4 days commuting. This is what I assumed as a FNG FO regional as the bad side of normal. I would assume it gets much better after 1-2 years. This was my conclusion after anecdotal conversations with my friends that went the airline route and reading multiple forums posts. There is only 1 legacy domicile within 2 hours of where I live, with no guarantees I would get that, so I assumed commuting (don't want to move), which really affected my decision. YMMV.

Nothing wrong with your decision.  Back in the day I commuted 1200 miles for 25 years but no way would I commute now.  And after 4 ocean crossing in 6 days I was wiped out.  I was single at the time, can only imagine the pressure on getting back home if you are married.   Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the job but it was a means to an end. Made enough by 59 and exited.  You can always build or buy an airplane.  I did and have never enjoyed flying as much as I have now.

[TreeA10]

5 hours ago, HeloDude said:

That sounds like a lot of work compared to flying a legacy 13-15 days a month.

Doing wide body FO, I usually work 9 days or 12 if I pick up an extra trip. Had a CA ask me why I didn't bid CA then tell me the senior FOs should bid domestic CA to share their knowledge.  My response was "Hell no!".... Along with some other colorful descriptive commentary on domestic flying.

[Spoo]

I swear I saw an airline pilot thread around here somewhere...

[Weezer]

On 1/10/2024 at 10:38 AM, Biff_T said:

What's the year group for Col promotions at the current moment?   

‘03 starts 1 March.

[SocialD]

On 1/11/2024 at 9:08 AM, HossHarris said:

Remember kids …. You can be the best of what’s left !

 

 

Lol just ran into a pilot training buddy and asked him his plans.   He plans on getting out at 20 and said he was about to start dealing with the O-6 board BS.  I'm like can't you just not do anything?  I guess that's not how it works on AD?  Anyway he said writing to the board to ask to not be promoted didn't even work for one of his friends 🤣.  Given his record and what's going on right now, there is no way he's not promoted, but he's still bailing at 20.  Crazy times. 

[brabus]

21 minutes ago, SocialD said:

Anyway he said writing to the board to ask to not be promoted didn't even work for one of his friends

I wanted to decline school in 1st look, OG and WG didn’t concur (they “knew what was best” for me). The WG joked, “well you can just go to the guard if you won’t go to school now, but you need to go so I’m pushing this forward. It’ll be good for your career.” I had the last laugh on that one! 

AD will never learn that guys just want some semblance of QOL control for their families and more of a say on the career “track” they want. AD will never be OK with dudes who just want to take part in the dismantling of our enemies.

Edited January 12 by brabus

[di1630]

Rumor on the fighter street is sq/cc majors…field promotion to Lt Col.

Gotta compete with direct hire to airline captain.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[brabus]

FS/CC major has already happened a few years ago. It’s been that bad for that long.

To be clear, he’s a patch and very capable, so this doesn’t reflect on him personally. 

Edited January 12 by brabus

[Danger41]

When I was on the WIC staff from 17-20, every fighter WPS had a Major DO. Pretty wild stuff that it’s CC’s now.

Also, if there’s any A1 flesh peddlers out there, I’ll go fly a fighter and babysit all the young bucks as an O-5. Service Before Self. Preferably Lakenheath or Kadena or Hill or some other nice place. No Korea. And I gotta fly a lot. And I get to delegate everything to the O-4’s for their leadership development. Meet those, and I’m yours.

Oh yeah…only TX course and Santa Claus IP’s. That’s it.

[McJay Pilot]

7 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

 

Lol just ran into a pilot training buddy and asked him his plans.   He plans on getting out at 20 and said he was about to start dealing with the O-6 board BS.  I'm like can't you just not do anything?  I guess that's not how it works on AD?  Anyway he said writing to the board to ask to not be promoted didn't even work for one of his friends 🤣.  Given his record and what's going on right now, there is no way he's not promoted, but he's still bailing at 20.  Crazy times. 

Can you do something? Yes, don’t do AWC in any variant. Fly the line, pass knowledge down to the younglings and still retire as an O-5.

My career path is not for the faint hearted, but it’s possible!

[Skitzo]

Can you do something? Yes, don’t do AWC in any variant. Fly the line, pass knowledge down to the younglings and still retire as an O-5.
My career path is not for the faint hearted, but it’s possible!

I know an 02 guy who did this. Still got O6


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[McJay Pilot]

20 minutes ago, Skitzo said:

I know an 02 guy who did this. Still got O6


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why must you be the screen door on my submarine?

[Swizzle]

I know an O-5 Detco was told do correspondence SDE and get O-6. Several thought no way, person isn’t traditional CC. That person completed SDE and it happened, a high O-6 line # as DETCO, but all without prior DO or Exec experience. 

Second case: this person wasn't even a DETCO and had no prior CC or DO..made O-6 from a small WG staff job, immediately PCS'd to D.C. non-CC gig. 

[NUKE]

17 hours ago, brabus said:

FS/CC major has already happened a few years ago. It’s been that bad for that long.

To be clear, he’s a patch and very capable, so this doesn’t reflect on him personally. 

Is this in the F-16 community? In the F-15, all the CC’s are O-5s with about half of the DO’s as O-4s.
 

Anecdotally, the talent pool has shrank from years past since a lot of folks are getting out, more than I remember as a Capt. 

[Motofalcon]

In my little corner of the viper world I haven’t seen a maj as a CC, but I have seen O5s who finish their 1-year command tour at Kunsan get asked by big blue if they would like to command a squadron again. 

[Swizzle]

54 minutes ago, Motofalcon said:

In my little corner of the viper world I haven’t seen a maj as a CC, but I have seen O5s who finish their 1-year command tour at Kunsan get asked by big blue if they would like to command a squadron again. 

Double or triple, back-to-back command is new norm for Mx, LRS, and SF.

I could see the CSOs taking over this 'tradition' as pilot exodus deepens. Eventually there will not be staff positions to cut during this stated rated staff crisis.

Just wait and watch for all CC boards to be mandatory all-in...it's trending that way.

[brabus]

3 hours ago, NUKE said:

Is this in the F-16 community?

Yeah. Granted it by no means is a norm, but it has happened. Also have seen many sq/cc in the last couple years that were very new O-5s. Like been one for months, not years. AD’s dumbassery combined with airline hiring has ravaged the ranks.

[Danger41]

Another thing in the fighter community right now for CC’s is that if you go back to when these dudes were in UPT, fighters were few and far between. The U-28 community just released their DO/CC list and the vast majority were T-38 trained O-5’s who in normal times would’ve ended up in Vipers or something else. It’s weird how you shut the flood gates for a couple years and end up paying for it down the road.