The Iran thread

[waveshaper]

26 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Ok, so how do you give feedback to let the Iranian regime (not civilians) know this will not be tolerated?  What do you strike, seize, deny that causes the regime enough pain to stop?

A new Nuke deal to replace the JCPOA, that we shit-canned, might do the trick/stop the pain? We could call this new Nuke deal the U-MOPPOA (Unilateral-Massive Ordnance Penetrator Plan Of Action). Heck, i'll bet we could even get the Senate to ratify this Nuke Deal:<) The trigger for the U-MOPPOA to go into the hot/ship-it mode TBD?   

[Clark Griswold]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

I might have missed it but where did this article say anything about an SA-7?

Apologies

Was in another article I read on this today: https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-shoot-us-reaper-drone-oil-tanker-scene

2 hours ago, waveshaper said:

A new Nuke deal to replace the JCPOA, that we shit-canned, might do the trick/stop the pain? We could call this new Nuke deal the U-MOPPOA (Unilateral-Massive Ordnance Penetrator Plan Of Action). Heck, i'll bet we could even get the Senate to ratify this Nuke Deal:<) The trigger for the U-MOPPOA to go into the hot/ship-it mode TBD?   

Maybe but I think a cyber, clandestine maritime program to give Iranian shipping a lot of unexplained problems along with keeping the support to the Saudis to keep Yemen from falling to their proxies is phase I, phase II can come later if they choose to escalate

Time to start another Op Earnest Will part 2 in the meantime

Edited June 16, 2019 by Clark Griswold

[jice]

RQ-4 shot down?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48700965

[matmacwc]

3 hours ago, jice said:

RQ-4 shot down?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48700965

Do they know what they are getting into?  I’d like to think (hope) cyber has a big red button that would turn off all the lights in Iran.

[panchbarnes]

and the race is on to recover the avionics and ISR equipment...

[Clark Griswold]

So DMPIs on military / industrial targets or both?

They export oil, cripple that and the regime loses 45% of its money, they would not have the ability to withstand another Iranian Green Movement.

 

[Prosuper]

13 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

So DMPIs on military / industrial targets or both?

They export oil, cripple that and the regime loses 45% of its money, they would not have the ability to withstand another Iranian Green Movement.

 

No money either to support Hamas and Hezbollah, so no more rockets flying out of Gaza. Will they be crossing into Afghanistan to retaliate , they have regular airline service to Mazar E Sharif (OAMS). 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Prosuper
grammar

[jice]

9 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

So DMPIs on military / industrial targets or both?

They export oil, cripple that and the regime loses 45% of its money, they would not have the ability to withstand another Iranian Green Movement.

 

So... same plan except bomb the shit out of them first? How many Al Gore bumper stickers went on cars on 9/12/01? 

[Clark Griswold]

45 minutes ago, Prosuper said:

No money either to support Hamas and Hezbollah, so no more rockets flying out of Gaza. Will they be crossing into Afghanistan to retaliate , they have regular airline service to Mazar E Sharif (OAMS). 

That's a risk but doing nothing is not a COA in this situation IMHO, too many pokes in the chest to not earn a solid pushback.  The key is that it has to target the IRGC to the maximum extent possible.

44 minutes ago, jice said:

So... same plan except bomb the shit out of them first? How many Al Gore bumper stickers went on cars on 9/12/01? 

Yeah, it's an excrement sandwich but chewing thru seems to be our only COA. 

Not a bomb the shit out of them response but very targeted, very painful and one that demonstrates that if we choose to we can flip them on their backs like a turtle and step on them if necessary.  They loose face and deterrence is re-established.

The regime needs an external enemy to remain in power therefore they will always be a-holes what we need is for them to be afraid that we can embarrass them at will. 

Keep it to air strikes on IRGC targets via stand-off weapons, seize Iranian assets, isolate diplomatically and covert actions.

Doing nothing will cost more in the long run.

[Day Man]

[tac airlifter]

I don’t think killing Iranians is an appropriate level of response for them shooting down a robot.  One of the advantages of RPAs is we can lose a few.  Had they killed aircrew, let’s start collecting scalps.  

This is a perfect time to respond with non kinetic cyber options.  Or non lethal kinetic options if those can be identified.

[Lawman]

I don’t think killing Iranians is an appropriate level of response for them shooting down a robot.  One of the advantages of RPAs is we can lose a few.  Had they killed aircrew, let’s start collecting scalps.  
This is a perfect time to respond with non kinetic cyber options.  Or non lethal kinetic options if those can be identified.

Knocking out a few radar sites would be though.

I’d play this similar to the way we used to play the No Fly zones over Iraq. You point/fire a missile at us (specifically in international airspace) you will lose what you pointed.

It’ll make them think about escalation as well if our seen/known response is you’re free to be buttholes and make statements and thump your chest but active threats will be dealt with immediately and completely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JimNtexas]

“Just remember, before fracking we had to be able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open. Now all we have to be able to do is keep them closed. And if Iran decides to close down oil shipments from the Gulf, it’s basically an oil embargo on China.”

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit

 

 

 

 

[viper154]

I’m honestly shocked we haven’t responded already. Sure, it may just be a drone, but what if it wasn’t? Probably not a time to go in guns blazing but I would launch a couple rounds at all the radars/SAMs near the straight. Maybe a couple Navy sites/yards as well to send a message about the shipping attacks. 

Draw a line in the sand before a manned asset that is venerable  gets engaged. 

POTUS public response at least hints this may be a rogue faction of the Iranian military, or perhaps there is a deeper unrest in the Iranian military than we the public knows. Regardless, the message needs to be sent that shooting at us will not be tolerated. 

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, viper154 said:

I’m honestly shocked we haven’t responded already.

One of my first Herc instructors told me the first step in any emergency was "wind your watch."

I'm sure there will be a significant response, but I want it to be carefully considered and appropriately measured.

[Lawman]

1 hour ago, viper154 said:

I’m honestly shocked we haven’t responded already. Sure, it may just be a drone, but what if it wasn’t? Probably not a time to go in guns blazing but I would launch a couple rounds at all the radars/SAMs near the straight. Maybe a couple Navy sites/yards as well to send a message about the shipping attacks. 

Draw a line in the sand before a manned asset that is venerable  gets engaged. 

POTUS public response at least hints this may be a rogue faction of the Iranian military, or perhaps there is a deeper unrest in the Iranian military than we the public knows. Regardless, the message needs to be sent that shooting at us will not be tolerated. 

We also may be positioning the chess board to be more than just one move ahead. 

There are two options post a response to them with us hitting them. One is for them to launch a lot of “stir up hell” attacks within their considerable capability as far as terror/shock attacks against soft and civilian targets in reprisal. The other is that whole militias in proximity with us in Iraq problem. 

[SurelySerious]

4 hours ago, viper154 said:

I’m honestly shocked we haven’t responded already. Sure, it may just be a drone, but what if it wasn’t? Probably not a time to go in guns blazing but I would launch a couple rounds at all the radars/SAMs near the straight. Maybe a couple Navy sites/yards as well to send a message about the shipping attacks. 

Draw a line in the sand before a manned asset that is venerable  gets engaged. 

POTUS public response at least hints this may be a rogue faction of the Iranian military, or perhaps there is a deeper unrest in the Iranian military than we the public knows. Regardless, the message needs to be sent that shooting at us will not be tolerated. 

Along the lines of Lawman’s thoughts:

-Before you strike you have to hold the upper hand on the public narrative, and right now we simply do not in the international eye

-They have proxy forces and military elements that don’t play normal rules that will be in play; they’re not as weak as Iraq during NW/SW 

-If your long term goal is the fall of the regime, you could very easily strengthen the gov’ts standing amongst the people via common enemy by attacking 

 

There are a lot of things the US administration may actually be considering on this one. The Iranians probably want us to attack because it benefits them in many ways...so maybe you wait it out until they mess up very obviously on the international stage. Or not, I’m just a dude. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by SurelySerious

[Prozac]

15 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

“Just remember, before fracking we had to be able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open. Now all we have to be able to do is keep them closed. And if Iran decides to close down oil shipments from the Gulf, it’s basically an oil embargo on China.”

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit

 

 

 

 

We may be able to take care of ourselves energy wise, but much of the rest of the world still relies on oil shipped through the straight. Now, you might say we live in ‘Murica, fuck the rest of those guys. But what do you think would happen here if the European, Japanese, South Korean, and especially the Chinese markets tank because the price of oil quadruples? Like it or not, we’re all tied together economically and “America First” shouldn’t translate to “America Only”. 

[jazzdude]

We may be able to take care of ourselves energy wise, but much of the rest of the world still relies on oil shipped through the straight. Now, you might say we live in ‘Murica, the rest of those guys. But what do you think would happen here if the European, Japanese, South Korean, and especially the Chinese markets tank because the price of oil quadruples? Like it or not, we’re all tied together economically and “America First” shouldn’t translate to “America Only”. 

If it's so vital to their interests, maybe they should step up and defend their interests... Or press the UN to do something if it's a global interest.

[Breckey]

That's what JPCOA was supposed to be.

[Prosuper]

9 hours ago, Prozac said:

We may be able to take care of ourselves energy wise, but much of the rest of the world still relies on oil shipped through the straight. Now, you might say we live in ‘Murica, fuck the rest of those guys. But what do you think would happen here if the European, Japanese, South Korean, and especially the Chinese markets tank because the price of oil quadruples? Like it or not, we’re all tied together economically and “America First” shouldn’t translate to “America Only”. 

Japan has more DDG's than anybody, if anybody has a interest in keeping those straights open it's them. Plus if they do it they can dictate terms to China, which will bring up old old old grudges. 

[17D_guy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-trumps-approval-pentagon-launched-cyber-strikes-against-iran/2019/06/22/250d3740-950d-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html?utm_term=.a1069838cb86

[Danger41]

Only thing I didn’t like about that story was the amount of people speaking anonymously about the highly compartmented and classified programs that were (I assume) used.

Otherwise, great use of Cyber Command and the authorities and employment model they have moved toward.

[uhhello]

16 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Only thing I didn’t like about that story was the amount of people speaking anonymously about the highly compartmented and classified programs that were (I assume) used.

Otherwise, great use of Cyber Command and the authorities and employment model they have moved toward.

IO at work me thinks.

[HuggyU2]

I believe this explains everything when it comes to the Navy and this unfortunate situation: