The Iran thread

[M2]

1 hour ago, arg said:

So the Iranians have killed almost 200 (if you count the 63 Canadians citizens) Iranians. After we killed one.

Pretty much everyone on that flight was of Iranian descent, including the Canadians...

And the two may not be directly related.

[kaputt]

2 hours ago, arg said:

So the Iranians have killed almost 200 (if you count the 63 Canadians citizens) Iranians. After we killed one.

Don’t forget the 56 that died in the stampede at the late General’s funeral. 

[Clark Griswold]

13 hours ago, nsplayr said:

So if, hypothetically, the Houthis carry out an attack that kills a US contractor in Aden, we completely destroy the Iranian economy in a clear act of open war without discussion or hesitation? Count me out. Seems like in a representative form of government there should be some discussion of that kind of move.

Maybe it's on a sliding scale but one that is not linear, we know when the curve goes exponential and I suspect they do too. 

Single digits and killed in an indirect fire incident will probably not get Kharg Island or Tehran turned to rubble but it will get something destroyed of value with the intention of killing Iranians in the process, both sides know that this is a function not equation.

As to consensus, yes required for major, on going actions; responding in kind or some multiple of it to punish, dissuade, preserve honor and reestablish deterrence, no.  Congress is necessary in the overall scheme of things but not where the direct action needs to happen.  The pax on the jet can tell the pilot about the ride but ultimately the pilot is in control, duly noted.  Now when the jet the lands the pax don't have to buy another ticket and without that the jet doesn't go, they have an input just not at every moment.

13 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Then, after declaring war on Iran and destroying its oil economy (civilian targets BTW, great choice, may need to re-hack your LOAC training again soon), we randomly blockade critically important international shipping lanes about 6-9K miles from our shores and tell our allies in NATO and Asia to F-off and we quit, or what? This advice just keeps getting better!

I get that negotiating from a position of strength is what you want to do, and chest-beating definitely sounds cool on the internet, but this is all just astonishingly bad foreign policy advice. Even if you support the strike against QS and taking a more aggressive posture toward Iran as a counter to their assorted nefarious activities, you don't always have to turn it up to 11.

As a superpower who frequently "gets shit done," we have a lot of options between doing nothing and glassing the entire Middle East.

LOAC does not prevent destroying civilian infrastructure if said infrastructure is used in war making / supporting activities, for the attacker it is a matter of how many degrees of separation from said war making activities you believe are required before you consider it off limits.

Mosques used to shield fighters are legitimate targets, hospitals with AAA guns on them are legitimate targets.  POL facilities that support directly or indirectly war efforts of an enemy (state or non-state) are legitimate targets if you trace the economic output of them to the enemy inside of the range of separation you deem appropriate for military action.

Will respectfully part company with you on rando chest thumping on the internet, you approach the problem from the angle as you wish it to be rather than what it really is.  You've mentioned on BO that you sit on the left side of the isle, fine you're choice but the problem with the Western left is that it incorrectly believes everyone else in the world in charge of other non-Western countries wants the same things for their people, has some common values with the West or can be reasoned with based on what will bring them material gain.

None of those things is inherently true.  There are vast swaths of the world that don't want their people to live to well, that are not interested in peace or normal relations with the rest of the world as they need external enemies to distract their populations from the incompetence and corruption of their rule and do not in anyway respect or want to live in the "rules based order" that the West thinks is/has to be ascendant across the globe.

These people respect power and act on fear.  Fear they will lose their power and/or lives.  Occasionally kicking the shit out of them when they get too frisky is just an unpleasant fact of life if we wish to have a presence in their area of the world and or keep them from getting leverage over too much.  

You're right we do have lots of options as a superpower but make no mistake, no one respects a strong dithering pussy.  A big strong guy that allows a weaker, aggressive, loud bully to push him around doesn't actually have anyone's secret respect, they (the crowd watching) are just waiting to see what happens and to go with the winning team.

I'm not saying to just willy nilly throw power around and act like an ass around the world, but when it is time, just do it and state it was in our interest to resolve the matter favorably to our interests.  No apologies, no over analyzing it. 

Victory is a rationalizing force all it's own.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Clark Griswold

[Boomer6]

19 hours ago, nsplayr said:

The fact that a Ukrainian airline, flying a Boeing 737, crashed and/or was shot down in Iran is the unified conspiracy theory we all can get behind right now. The rare triple-crossover conspiracy, almost never seen outside the lab.

Still think it’s a conspiracy theory that Iran shot the jet down?

[Prozac]

3 hours ago, Boomer6 said:

Still think it’s a conspiracy theory that Iran shot the jet down?

Your sarcasm detector CB may be popped. 

[Breckey]

Quote

The pax on the jet can tell the pilot about the ride but ultimately the pilot is in control, duly noted.  Now when the jet the lands the pax don't have to buy another ticket and without that the jet doesn't go, they have an input just not at every moment.

Yesterday's resolution by the House is Congress not wanting to buy another ticket unless the pilot tells them where they are going. The passivity of Congress with respect to the Executive's ever expanding justification to use military force over the last 19 years has drastically changed the paradigm for the worse. The "all associated forces" blurb was never in the 2001 AUMF, however Congress' lack of enforcement has condemned us to an endless series of conflicts.

Congress' attempts to reign in the AUMF have been met with accusations of wanting the terrorists to win or not protecting America. ISIS in Libya is not going to attack the US anytime soon, why do we continue to spend treasure to play whack-a-mole?

[M2]

6 hours ago, Boomer6 said:

Still think it’s a conspiracy theory that Iran shot the jet down?

You actually read nsplayr's posts?!?  🤣🤣🤣

[Boomer6]

8 hours ago, M2 said:

You actually read nsplayr's posts?!?  🤣🤣🤣

Its like how every now and then I turn on MSNBC or CNN just to chuckle at the bleeding heart libs for a few minutes.

[Clark Griswold]

13 hours ago, Breckey said:

Yesterday's resolution by the House is Congress not wanting to buy another ticket unless the pilot tells them where they are going. The passivity of Congress with respect to the Executive's ever expanding justification to use military force over the last 19 years has drastically changed the paradigm for the worse. The "all associated forces" blurb was never in the 2001 AUMF, however Congress' lack of enforcement has condemned us to an endless series of conflicts.

Congress' attempts to reign in the AUMF have been met with accusations of wanting the terrorists to win or not protecting America. ISIS in Libya is not going to attack the US anytime soon, why do we continue to spend treasure to play whack-a-mole?

I'm fine with that but we have to find that right balance between Congressional oversight and approval for war / long-term operations and the reality of the modern operational environment needing often swift decision making with an executive enabled to take decisive action(s).

The War Powers Act is a good idea and just needs to be updated (regularly) and acknowledged by the Executive Branch.  A long enough leash to let the dog keep the bad guys at bay but still is there to keep the dog from running wild thru the neighborhood.

Agree on problematic rhetoric, some on the right and left are using language they know is bullshit.

[afthunderchief16]

Iran plane crash: Ukrainian jet was 'unintentionally' shot down - state TV https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51073621
 

Looks like the rare triple-crossover conspiracy theory is confirmed now. 
 

I’d wager that the SAM operator has already been... taken care of... and has been sent to a really nice farm in the country. 

[dream big]

On 1/10/2020 at 8:48 AM, Breckey said:

Yesterday's resolution by the House is Congress not wanting to buy another ticket unless the pilot tells them where they are going. The passivity of Congress with respect to the Executive's ever expanding justification to use military force over the last 19 years has drastically changed the paradigm for the worse. The "all associated forces" blurb was never in the 2001 AUMF, however Congress' lack of enforcement has condemned us to an endless series of conflicts.

Congress' attempts to reign in the AUMF have been met with accusations of wanting the terrorists to win or not protecting America. ISIS in Libya is not going to attack the US anytime soon, why do we continue to spend treasure to play whack-a-mole?

Executive overreach has been a problem but everyone knows Congress is not coming to the table in good faith.  They will stop at nothing to impede Trump.  This act by Congress is purely political.  

I have full faith that Trump will find an ultimately peaceful resolution.  Iran is not some average middle eastern crap hole.  Persian culture is rich, Iran is a country of doctors, scientists, etc unfortunately hijacked by a fanatical Islamic regime.  I hope pro Democracy movements pick up steam and ultimately result in the overthrow of the Ayatollah.  Who knows, Iran could become a key ally. 

[Breckey]

Executive overreach has been a problem but everyone knows Congress is not coming to the table in good faith.  They will stop at nothing to impede Trump.  This act by Congress is purely political.  
I have full faith that Trump will find an ultimately peaceful resolution.  Iran is not some average middle eastern crap hole.  Persian culture is rich, Iran is a country of doctors, scientists, etc unfortunately hijacked by a fanatical Islamic regime.  I hope pro Democracy movements pick up steam and ultimately result in the overthrow of the Ayatollah.  Who knows, Iran could become a key ally. 

Congress hasn't been in good faith for over a decade. Just look at the requests for Obama to have a new AUMF for the ISIS fight. Nobody on either side of the isle wanted to put their name on a "vote for war" that may end poorly like the one for GW II. It's easier for them to not do anything and blame the Executive rather than actually do their job and legislate.

[waveshaper]

 "US seizes four vessels loaded with Iranian fuel":

- "U.S. officials reportedly seized four tankers loaded with Iranian fuel and are transporting them to port in Houston."

- "A U.S. official confirmed the seizure of the four vessels, dubbed the Bering, Bella, Luna and Pandi, in a statement to the Wall Street Journal, and explained further that the craft were seized without the use of military force. It wasn't immediately clear where the seizures occurred or which U.S. agencies were involved."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/511963-us-seizes-four-vessels-loaded-with-iranian-fuel

[Clark Griswold]

Iran boards a tanker in the straits:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-08-13/iranian-forces-board-tanker-in-the-strait-of-hormuz

 

[HuggyU2]

Unbelievably shocking and unexpected.  How dare they!!  

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201207-iran-centrifuge-plan-alarms-european-trio

What should be done????

 

[BashiChuni]

send them cash that will get them to stop! /s

[GrndPndr]

So, is this when they finally recover from Stuxnet and get going again, or are we on try #4 or something?

Maybe the IAF will provide some special delivery to help celebrate?

[Danger41]

3 hours ago, GrndPndr said:

So, is this when they finally recover from Stuxnet and get going again, or are we on try #4 or something?

Maybe the IAF will provide some special delivery to help celebrate?

Already delivered a care package to the head of their nuclear development program. Very charitable of them.

And Biden wants to get back into the deal with Tehran so it looks like peace in the Middle East.

[Clark Griswold]

Honestly what the hell can we or anyone else do to keep them from developing a nuke while the mullahs still run the country and the world trades with them and pretends that they will adhere to the agreement and/or is not clandestinely working on a bomb and the means to deliver it

Unless we resurrect Lemay and Harris and bomb the whole place to the Stone Age or the world gets on the same page of the book of realism vs the book of willful blindness they are going to have a bomb or the means to breakout in the next 5 years

The Onion summed this up perfectly:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theonion.com/iranian-team-openly-working-on-bomb-in-negotiating-room-1819577235/amp


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ClearedHot]

14 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Honestly what the hell can we or anyone else do to keep them from developing a nuke

[ViperMan]

21 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Unbelievably shocking and unexpected.  How dare they!!  

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201207-iran-centrifuge-plan-alarms-european-trio

What should be done????

 

I recommend writing a strongly worded letter to them.

[Clark Griswold]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

... Freedom Delivery gif ...

I wish that would do it but it only temporarily treats a symptom while not curing the disease, don't get me wrong, if required or appropriate a major strike (conventional) even unilaterally is ok but we have to defeat the enemy not just his weapon or project.  The enemy is the theocratic aggressive repressive government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, their nuclear program (among other things) is just sone of their weapons, it can be destroyed but like the Hydra, unless you kill the whole monster the cranium you cut off will just grow back.

Isolate their economy, deter their military, engage their para-military forces abroad, support their dissidents, aid defectors, show the inhuman brutality of their system and have consequences for those that fund, trade and enable the regime.  No one gets to have Iranian oil cake and eat it too, you trade with them you get no deterrence assistance from us.

[ViperMan]

20 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

I wish that would do it but it only temporarily treats a symptom while not curing the disease, don't get me wrong, if required or appropriate a major strike (conventional) even unilaterally is ok but we have to defeat the enemy not just his weapon or project.  The enemy is the theocratic aggressive repressive government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, their nuclear program (among other things) is just sone of their weapons, it can be destroyed but like the Hydra, unless you kill the whole monster the cranium you cut off will just grow back.

Isolate their economy, deter their military, engage their para-military forces abroad, support their dissidents, aid defectors, show the inhuman brutality of their system and have consequences for those that fund, trade and enable the regime.  No one gets to have Iranian oil cake and eat it too, you trade with them you get no deterrence assistance from us.

100% in agreement. I say we continue with our current plan...it seems to be working.

[Clark Griswold]

100% in agreement. I say we continue with our current plan...it seems to be working.

Yup but I would not mind a few AirPower demos nearby to remind them that the stick is at the ready

IDK, how do you undercut a regime that needs/wants an external enemy to rally its population to ignore their oppression/horrible management?

Iran, Venezuela, NK, etc will never stop being a-holes as they need to be hated and in conflict with the rest of the world to keep the regime in power. Mow the grass as they say


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ViperMan]

31 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Yup but I would not mind a few AirPower demos nearby to remind them that the stick is at the ready

IDK, how do you undercut a regime that needs/wants an external enemy to rally its population to ignore their oppression/horrible management?

Iran, Venezuela, NK, etc will never stop being a-holes as they need to be hated and in conflict with the rest of the world to keep the regime in power. Mow the grass as they say

IMO, the condition is a population that knows something about the greater world (Iran) that you can apply indirect pressure against. That's why a strategy like that would work.

As far as NK, they don't have a populace that knows much about the outside, so there's no real hope that change can arise internally.