The Iran thread

[Lawman]

IMO, the condition is a population that knows something about the greater world (Iran) that you can apply indirect pressure against. That's why a strategy like that would work.
As far as NK, they don't have a populace that knows much about the outside, so there's no real hope that change can arise internally.

Nobody is in a rush to UN-F’ck the North Korea situation.

That country “waking up” and deciding integrate with the rest of the region will be an albatross around the neck of the whole of the Asian pacific rim economically. It’s a multi trillion dollar hole that will make the reintegration of Eastern Germany and the former Warsaw Pact following the fall of the wall look like picking up the check at Denny’s for your broke uncle.


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[Clark Griswold]

On 12/10/2020 at 8:22 PM, ViperMan said:

IMO, the condition is a population that knows something about the greater world (Iran) that you can apply indirect pressure against. That's why a strategy like that would work.

As far as NK, they don't have a populace that knows much about the outside, so there's no real hope that change can arise internally.

The people of NK get some information on the outside world via the slightly porous or accessible border with China, either by work release, approved trade, slipping thru and back or bribing the right guard at the right time.  Another way I learned and was surprised by was the means information (entertainment mostly) is getting into NK, USB drives.

TVs with USB ports are fairly common and they are getting some information on the outside world, I think a sizeable part of them know the rest of the world is nothing like what their state tells them it is but they can't do anything about it as the pure brutality and patronage of the NK system is self-perpetuating, so many people have done so much evil shit to their own countrymen either by choice or force that they are now afraid to see the regime fall for what will happen to them after it goes.  The enablers and enforcers of the regime know they have the tiger by the tail and I doubt anytime soon they are going to let him go, I would love to be wrong but doubt it, especially with China having no interest in a united, free and democratic Korea on its border.

Video on this interesting effort to destabilize the regime:

 

5 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Nobody is in a rush to UN-F’ck the North Korea situation.

That country “waking up” and deciding integrate with the rest of the region will be an albatross around the neck of the whole of the Asian pacific rim economically. It’s a multi trillion dollar hole that will make the reintegration of Eastern Germany and the former Warsaw Pact following the fall of the wall look like picking up the check at Denny’s for your broke uncle.

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Yup, I've heard this too.  Wiki article says 1 Trillion USD

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification#:~:text=In the event of Korean,of economic collapse or stagnation.

https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Korean_Reunification.pdf

[Lawman]

Yup, I've heard this too.  Wiki article says 1 Trillion USD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification#:~:text=In the event of Korean,of economic collapse or stagnation.
https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Korean_Reunification.pdf

I think a trillion is overly optimistic. And that said there’ll are we shouldering the burden alone in this. (Looking at you regional neighbors like China and Japan).

Adjusted for inflation the reintegration of East and West Germany cost about 1.2 trillion between economic impact and aid packages from western economies.

North Korea is far and above way behind where East Germany was to try and match to its neighbors. It would effectively be the 90s famine Somalia of Asia. And it’s next door to 3 of the worlds most important and impactful economies, 2 of which whom can’t just shut off the media and machine gun refugees crossing over.


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[ViperMan]

On 12/13/2020 at 8:40 PM, Lawman said:

Nobody is in a rush to UN-F’ck the North Korea situation.

That country “waking up” and deciding integrate with the rest of the region will be an albatross around the neck of the whole of the Asian pacific rim economically. It’s a multi trillion dollar hole that will make the reintegration of Eastern Germany and the former Warsaw Pact following the fall of the wall look like picking up the check at Denny’s for your broke uncle.

I suppose I basically agree with you, if the only way forward for NK was welfare...

Another perspective, though, is that there are companies that are DYING to invest money into NK because what it actually represents is massive, latent economic output which is currently handicapped because of its government...never mind the hundreds of thousands of SKs that have relatives in NK they'd like to reunite with. While it would take "trillions" to repair it, I think the ROI would be positive. Take a look at SK for two seconds...what makes them so different? Nothing. 0.

On 12/13/2020 at 9:27 PM, Lawman said:

I think a trillion is overly optimistic. And that said there’ll are we shouldering the burden alone in this. (Looking at you regional neighbors like China and Japan).

Adjusted for inflation the reintegration of East and West Germany cost about 1.2 trillion between economic impact and aid packages from western economies.

North Korea is far and above way behind where East Germany was to try and match to its neighbors. It would effectively be the 90s famine Somalia of Asia. And it’s next door to 3 of the worlds most important and impactful economies, 2 of which whom can’t just shut off the media and machine gun refugees crossing over.

Currently, we're "investing" much more in Africa, which has two things: far more potential, and far, far more cost to getting up to the modern world...yet no one scoffs.

NK is NOT far behind what East Germany was post war - they are a nation that currently has the ability to produce nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, yet most of the population lives off of rotten cabbage and a little tiny rice bowl three times a week. They have every bit of potential to be as productive as SK given the opportunity. A lot of trade and "economics" already happens between the two states. Their problem is 100% political.

The problem isn't how much it would "cost" - the problem is letting a festering wound continue to fester. Worrying about a 1.2 trillion dollar "hole" misidentifies the root cause. Here's an article calling Corona a $16 trillion dollar event (https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/video-player/18553761#:~:text=The costs of the coronavirus,costs%3A the %2416 trillion virus.). Do you really think Corona is going to end the world...really?.. REALLY? Get some perspective. 20% of all money has been "created" in the last year (https://moguldom.com/310861/strategist-almost-20-percent-of-all-u-s-dollars-were-created-in-2020-alone/). Worrying about cost is cute, but that position has to ignore the broader context. 

What is the cost of continued conflict in that region for the next 350 years? Hint: far more than 1.2 trillion.

Edited December 16, 2020 by ViperMan

[Clark Griswold]

On 12/13/2020 at 10:27 PM, Lawman said:

I think a trillion is overly optimistic. And that said there’ll are we shouldering the burden alone in this. (Looking at you regional neighbors like China and Japan).

Adjusted for inflation the reintegration of East and West Germany cost about 1.2 trillion between economic impact and aid packages from western economies.

North Korea is far and above way behind where East Germany was to try and match to its neighbors. It would effectively be the 90s famine Somalia of Asia. And it’s next door to 3 of the worlds most important and impactful economies, 2 of which whom can’t just shut off the media and machine gun refugees crossing over.

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Possibly but the probability of a successful NK integrated with SK to become a greater force for a better Asia is better than even methinks and worth the cost to the countries with the means and perhaps the will to fund and support a reunification if the opportunity presented itself.  

Just my feeling / hunch as I have not been to NK nor met anyone from NK but I suspect that the culture and level of development there is much more amenable to development and change than our most recent attempts.  Just a guess as I am sure 70+ years of maniacal communist brainwashing and brutality has not help set the table for development but if the mission was led by SK and NK interested in reconciliation, I think it could work after a lot of money and 20+ years of work.

There's just no way I can think of to convince the regime to change as they are maddeningly resilient and have no need to change.  They appear outwardly stable for now and in control, if they were teetering or China wanted change then maybe they could be convinced to relinquish power in exchange for amnesty and assurance of a place somewhat commensurate with their previous position in NK but that's not where we are at.

Same for Iran, as we apply pressure and try to topple the regime causing the problems.  We (the West et al) have to have a champion to offer them that hails from their culture to offer as a viable alternative to the regimes we oppose.  

 

[Lawman]

Currently, we're "investing" much more in Africa, which has two things: far more potential, and far, far more cost to getting up to the modern world...yet no one scoffs.
NK is NOT far behind what East Germany was post war - they are a nation that currently has the ability to produce nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, yet most of the population lives off of rotten cabbage and a little tiny rice bowl three times a week. They have every bit of potential to be as productive as SK given the opportunity. A lot of trade and "economics" already happens between the two states. Their problem is 100% political.
The problem isn't how much it would "cost" - the problem is letting a festering wound continue to fester. Worrying about a 1.2 trillion dollar "hole" misidentifies the root cause. Here's an article calling Corona a $16 trillion dollar event (https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/video-player/18553761#:~:text=The costs of the coronavirus,costs%3A the %2416 trillion virus.). Do you really think Corona is going to end the world...really?.. REALLY? Get some perspective. 20% of all money has been "created" in the last year (https://moguldom.com/310861/strategist-almost-20-percent-of-all-u-s-dollars-were-created-in-2020-alone/). Worrying about cost is cute, but that position has to ignore the broader context. 
What is the cost of continued conflict in that region for the next 350 years? Hint: far more than 1.2 trillion.

Really bro, you’re gonna compare investment in Africa or our trillion dollar mission creep as benchmarks of how enthusiastically people would invest in North Korea?

I’ll remind you, Africa is a continent full of natural resources whose extraction and for lack of a better term exploitation has been delayed by colonial transition and easier access elsewhere making it a second option for most. Afghanistan is at least sitting in a couple trillion in rare earth elements and minerals to make the venture “worthwhile” in the long run. Our long run has been 2 decades of ery. North Korea has none of that. They aren’t sitting on a resource access, or a strategic point of importance that can’t be more easily found elsewhere.

You think North Korea just flips a switch and everything becomes Korea United with 100% return in investment after a few years of schools and some money for food and housing? East Germany still has slums that are from the Soviet Era. You seriously think after every nation in the G7 has to spend the last 9 months looking inward and leveraging debt on top of debt to make COVID a livable economic experience that somebody wants to be the first guy through the door on fixing the North Korea problem? You’re out of your mind. You wanna see what coming out of a severely ideological communist doctrine with the “full investment” of outside capitalist powers looks like? We’ve got a couple dozen examples. Cambodia comes to mind. What a massive success after now 40 years of free market thinking.

The very best North Korea gets out of this situation is a cheaper, broker, less educated version of the way major powers exploit places like the Philippines or Vietnam for ultra cheap bulk barely worth it to the host country industries like pharmaceutical or textile manufacturing.


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[FLEA]

On 12/16/2020 at 6:54 AM, ViperMan said:

I suppose I basically agree with you, if the only way forward for NK was welfare...

Another perspective, though, is that there are companies that are DYING to invest money into NK because what it actually represents is massive, latent economic output which is currently handicapped because of its government...never mind the hundreds of thousands of SKs that have relatives in NK they'd like to reunite with. While it would take "trillions" to repair it, I think the ROI would be positive. Take a look at SK for two seconds...what makes them so different? Nothing. 0.

Currently, we're "investing" much more in Africa, which has two things: far more potential, and far, far more cost to getting up to the modern world...yet no one scoffs.

NK is NOT far behind what East Germany was post war - they are a nation that currently has the ability to produce nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, yet most of the population lives off of rotten cabbage and a little tiny rice bowl three times a week. They have every bit of potential to be as productive as SK given the opportunity. A lot of trade and "economics" already happens between the two states. Their problem is 100% political.

The problem isn't how much it would "cost" - the problem is letting a festering wound continue to fester. Worrying about a 1.2 trillion dollar "hole" misidentifies the root cause. Here's an article calling Corona a $16 trillion dollar event (https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/video-player/18553761#:~:text=The costs of the coronavirus,costs%3A the %2416 trillion virus.). Do you really think Corona is going to end the world...really?.. REALLY? Get some perspective. 20% of all money has been "created" in the last year (https://moguldom.com/310861/strategist-almost-20-percent-of-all-u-s-dollars-were-created-in-2020-alone/). Worrying about cost is cute, but that position has to ignore the broader context. 

What is the cost of continued conflict in that region for the next 350 years? Hint: far more than 1.2 trillion.

The ROK actually commissioned a study just a few years ago on East Germany and as a model for reunification and found that the model was incompatible with the situation on the peninsula. I wish I still had the study, it was circulating the staff there while I was at Osan. The economic disparity was something like 5X greater than east to west germany and nK doesn't have the geography or resources East Germany had. 

There's also the quiet truth that many, maybe a majority of sK's don't want reunification anymore. Those family ties are dieing as people age off and sK has been so successful without nK they are nationally asking themselves what the importance of reunification is anymore. They will certainly live better lifestyles without it. This isn't something they openly talk about but I'd you have a few close friends on the ROK and go out drinking they might open up. 

[ViperMan]

On 12/16/2020 at 9:36 PM, Lawman said:

Really bro, you’re gonna compare investment in Africa or our trillion dollar mission creep as benchmarks of how enthusiastically people would invest in North Korea?

I’ll remind you, Africa is a continent full of natural resources whose extraction and for lack of a better term exploitation has been delayed by colonial transition and easier access elsewhere making it a second option for most. Afghanistan is at least sitting in a couple trillion in rare earth elements and minerals to make the venture “worthwhile” in the long run. Our long run has been 2 decades of ery. North Korea has none of that. They aren’t sitting on a resource access, or a strategic point of importance that can’t be more easily found elsewhere.

You think North Korea just flips a switch and everything becomes Korea United with 100% return in investment after a few years of schools and some money for food and housing? East Germany still has slums that are from the Soviet Era. You seriously think after every nation in the G7 has to spend the last 9 months looking inward and leveraging debt on top of debt to make COVID a livable economic experience that somebody wants to be the first guy through the door on fixing the North Korea problem? You’re out of your mind. You wanna see what coming out of a severely ideological communist doctrine with the “full investment” of outside capitalist powers looks like? We’ve got a couple dozen examples. Cambodia comes to mind. What a massive success after now 40 years of free market thinking.

The very best North Korea gets out of this situation is a cheaper, broker, less educated version of the way major powers exploit places like the Philippines or Vietnam for ultra cheap bulk barely worth it to the host country industries like pharmaceutical or textile manufacturing.

The first time I read your response I thought you were replying to someone else - the amount of straw in your response is unreal. It actually made me re-read my post to see if I somehow wandered way off reservation.

You completely avoided the point I was making, that is: the way forward with NK isn't exclusively dependent on "welfare" from their betters. The rest of what you responded to is in your head - none of it came from my mouth.

NK doesn't have natural resources. Cool. Neither does SK. How is SK so successful?

East Germany still has slums from the Soviet era? Cool. Los Angeles still has slums from the democrat era. Are we just gonna throw the towel in with LA?

Point being, you brought up a lot of things that had no bearing on the point I was making, but I'm sure it was fun chaffing the lane.

[Lawman]

The first time I read your response I thought you were replying to someone else - the amount of straw in your response is unreal. It actually made me re-read my post to see if I somehow wandered way off reservation.
You completely avoided the point I was making, that is: the way forward with NK isn't exclusively dependent on "welfare" from their betters. The rest of what you responded to is in your head - none of it came from my mouth.
NK doesn't have natural resources. Cool. Neither does SK. How is SK so successful?
East Germany still has slums from the Soviet era? Cool. Los Angeles still has slums from the democrat era. Are we just gonna throw the towel in with LA?
Point being, you brought up a lot of things that had no bearing on the point I was making, but I'm sure it was fun chaffing the lane.

Oh yeah Bro. I mean China, you know that other major power pumping dollars and influence into the long game in Africa... They’re just clamoring at the “opportunity for investment” that is North Korea. Hence while being something like 85% of North Koreas export market (so pretty much everything but MANPADS and broken nuclear tech) they seem to be building the worlds strongest anti-refugee system along their borders.

If you honestly think any economy within the G7 or otherwise wants to be the people to un-screw the 70 year old disaster of ideology and economic shortsightedness in North Korea, you’re probably naive enough to think just another 6 months in Afghanistan and we will turn it all around. The world is sitting around like a bunch of broke in laws at the table on a meal none of them could afford hoping for one of the other couples to pick up the check. Nobody is so altruistic to want to give what that will cost in treasury and influence just to then watch power B/C swoop in and get the actual long term benefits.


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[ViperMan]

On 12/29/2020 at 8:37 PM, Lawman said:

Oh yeah Bro. I mean China, you know that other major power pumping dollars and influence into the long game in Africa... They’re just clamoring at the “opportunity for investment” that is North Korea. Hence while being something like 85% of North Koreas export market (so pretty much everything but MANPADS and broken nuclear tech) they seem to be building the worlds strongest anti-refugee system along their borders.

If you honestly think any economy within the G7 or otherwise wants to be the people to un-screw the 70 year old disaster of ideology and economic shortsightedness in North Korea, you’re probably naive enough to think just another 6 months in Afghanistan and we will turn it all around. The world is sitting around like a bunch of broke in laws at the table on a meal none of them could afford hoping for one of the other couples to pick up the check. Nobody is so altruistic to want to give what that will cost in treasury and influence just to then watch power B/C swoop in and get the actual long term benefits.

Nah bro. All I said was state welfare for NK wasn't the only way forward. I guess that was against your orthodoxy.

For the record, I thought going into AFG - in the way we did - was a mistake in '01. And for the record, I thought going into Iraq (in '03) was also a mistake. That's where I'm coming from.

Now, I'm gonna go hang out in a thread that has reading comprehension. Peace.

[SocialD]

5 hours ago, ViperMan said:

For the record, I thought going into AFG - in the way we did - was a mistake in '01. 

 

It absolutely was a mistake.  But at least we're not stuck in that fucking quagmire 20 years later, completely wasting our blood, money, time and assets...

[17D_guy]

9 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

It absolutely was a mistake.  But at least we're not stuck in that fucking quagmire 20 years later, completely wasting our blood, money, time and assets...

I think on this often, since it has shadowed my whole adult life.  Do you think if we hadn't done Iraq so soon after, we'd still be in the same quicksand?  I don't think we would.  I don't know if that parallel universe is better...but I'd sure like to see it.

[arg]

Wonder if setting NK free would be akin to setting the slaves free here after the civil war. Many slaves had no idea what to do without the masters oversight.

[SocialD]

16 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

I think on this often, since it has shadowed my whole adult life.  Do you think if we hadn't done Iraq so soon after, we'd still be in the same quicksand?  I don't think we would.  I don't know if that parallel universe is better...but I'd sure like to see it.

 

You and I both brother!  Are what ifs open?  What if we had experience with getting involved in a decade+ long quagmire, that could provide us some lessons learned...  What if there was this other super power who had gone into Afghanistan and had some lessons that could have been learned...  What if war wasn't such a racket...

Edited January 4, 2021 by SocialD

[pawnman]

10 hours ago, arg said:

Wonder if setting NK free would be akin to setting the slaves free here after the civil war. Many slaves had no idea what to do without the masters oversight.

Well, hopefully we can avoid China and South Korea lynching North Koreans for looking at a woman or driving after sunset.

[FLEA]

21 hours ago, pawnman said:

Well, hopefully we can avoid China and South Korea lynching North Koreans for looking at a woman or driving after sunset.

In all honesty, collapse of the DPRK will probably result in a decades long insurgency. DPRK has a robust special operations capability filled with fanatics who will be held before criminal courts had the slightest hint of regime train. These dudes are western educated, and we'll off in nK, they have a lot to lose; they also have a lot of followers. 

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

In all honesty, collapse of the DPRK will probably result in a decades long insurgency. DPRK has a robust special operations capability filled with fanatics who will be held before criminal courts had the slightest hint of regime train. These dudes are western educated, and we'll off in nK, they have a lot to lose; they also have a lot of followers. 

Consistent food is a hell of a drug though

[Lawman]

Consistent food is a hell of a drug though

Take a look at a few decades of UN backed humanitarian aid in places and how good a hold they have from “Truck to table” on that food.

If anything it may just introduce a new form of currency.


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[FLEA]

49 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Consistent food is a hell of a drug though

The North Korean elite never had a problem obtaining food though. They are a food based economy still (as in farmers pay their taxes with crop yields) and under Kim Jong Il the military took unnecessarily high share output. That was one of the reason most people were starving there at the time.  Kim Jong Un scaled this back quite a bit. Funny, but in a lot of ways, KJU was a much better leader than his father. He is entirely more focused on the economy, people and livelihoods. In either case though, the people who made up their central party loyalist, like their special operations components, never had trouble getting fed.

 

[17D_guy]

5 hours ago, FLEA said:

In all honesty, collapse of the DPRK will probably result in a decades long insurgency. DPRK has a robust special operations capability filled with fanatics who will be held before criminal courts had the slightest hint of regime train. These dudes are western educated, and we'll off in nK, they have a lot to lose; they also have a lot of followers. 

I was thinking more drug cartels like they did in Mexico, but I wouldn't put money on it either way.

Although...I don't think they'd do criminal courts for them if DPRK fell. Or did you mean something else and I can't read good.

[Clark Griswold]

Work a deal with China to allow defections to the PRC of the elite if the DPRK collapses - leave and don’t cause trouble with payments made so long as the first two stipulations are true


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[FLEA]

6 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

I was thinking more drug cartels like they did in Mexico, but I wouldn't put money on it either way.

Although...I don't think they'd do criminal courts for them if DPRK fell. Or did you mean something else and I can't read good.

The US,sK or the ICC doesn't need to do criminal courts. The populace will literally lynch them if they concede. It's going to be a very violent collapse. There isn't a peaceful way to do this.

There is also the problem of how to deal with nK's fissile material if they collapse. They have quite a bit of it now. Preventing that material from ending up in the wrong hands is a unique time pressure problem that will be difficult to deal with. In most internal collapse scenarios the functioning arms of the government will likely work to conceal it from the outside world as long as possible. We likely won't be certain that a collapse is imminent for an extended period of time. 

[17D_guy]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

The US,sK or the ICC doesn't need to do criminal courts. The populace will literally lynch them if they concede. It's going to be a very violent collapse. There isn't a peaceful way to do this.

There is also the problem of how to deal with nK's fissile material if they collapse. They have quite a bit of it now. Preventing that material from ending up in the wrong hands is a unique time pressure problem that will be difficult to deal with. In most internal collapse scenarios the functioning arms of the government will likely work to conceal it from the outside world as long as possible. We likely won't be certain that a collapse is imminent for an extended period of time. 

Ah, I misunderstood you.  My bad.  Only similar scenario I can think of is West Germany, kind of Russia.  I've got no idea what happened to the hardline commies...

[SurelySerious]

Iran Tells South Korea not to Politicize Seized Vessel, Demands Release of Funds
I don’t know how Iran thinks anyone will see this as anything other than a political gambit to get money for the assets and people they seized, but interested to see how it plays out. 

[Sim]

Don't know if fake, or if Iran did it....