The Iran thread

[HuggyU2]

Why do "they" think that typing everything on the NOTAMS in CAPS makes it easier to read?  

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by HuggyU2

[Breckey]

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794517031/satellite-photos-reveal-extent-of-damage-at-al-assad-air-base

At least 4-5 accurate hits on tents/hangars

[Homestar]

Literally tens of missiles......

[Clark Griswold]

11 hours ago, jrizzell said:

I know the default public answer will be “Americans did this”; but I’m betting money that this was an accidental shoot down by Iranian IADS...

Honestly though, a f’in Ukrainian airline, and they’re not turning over the black box to Boeing or US for examination, this is such a surreal time.

Little more information getting out about the Ukrainian 737 (only 3 years old) coming out, got to 8000' on departure profile normal for that regularly scheduled flight then something happened and came down on fire with debris scattered over a wide area, consistent with a catastrophic event compromising the hull, saw an aviation talking head that found the continuing fire on the jet as odd, kinda  agree with that as most jets have several shutoff / one-way valves for fuel/hydro upstream of the motors, also very effective halogen bottles for the engine pod(s).

Media is not dismissing the idea of an accidental shoot down.  What say this thread?  I'm a maybe but it is only suspicious at this time. 

Sabotage seems unlikely as why would you bomb a foreign flag aircraft of a non-belligerant nation to yours flying out of your country's main airport?

Mechanical / Structural failure is possible but unless it was a particularly extreme event the debris field would be localized when the mishap aircraft crashed.

SAM engagement near Tehran is possible but would the Iranians be that itchy on the trigger finger that deep inside their own country?

Edited January 9, 2020 by Clark Griswold

[Bob Uecker]

The flight was also an hour delayed coming out of IKA.

Before even combing the wreckage, Iranian officials were saying the plane had “technical issues” after takeoff. That’s considering there was no mayday call, and that the ADS-B cuts out during its ascent.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Bob Uecker

[waveshaper]

5 hours ago, Breckey said:

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794517031/satellite-photos-reveal-extent-of-damage-at-al-assad-air-base

At least 4-5 accurate hits on tents/hangars

"Satellite images of bases in Iraq before and after Iranian missile attack": Click on white circle in center of image/move mouse left or right, etc.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/01/08/see-satellite-images-of-iraq-bases-before-and-after-iranian-missile-attack/2848890001/

 

[Clark Griswold]

26 minutes ago, Bob Uecker said:

The flight was also an hour delayed coming out of IKA.

Before even combing the wreckage, Iranian officials were saying the plane had “technical issues” after takeoff. That’s considering there was no mayday call, and that the ADS-B cuts out during its ascent.

Discussion on PPRune:  https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran.html

Links, pictures, commentary - worth a skim

[Bob Uecker]

20 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Discussion on PPRune:  https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran.html

Links, pictures, commentary - worth a skim

Great read. Their theory on a compressor stall causing a fireball, freaking out Iranian AAM crews enough to shoot, sounds really plausible.

[Sim]

19 minutes ago, Bob Uecker said:

AAM crews enough to shoot, sounds really plausible.

Sarcasm? 

[Bob Uecker]

6 minutes ago, Sim said:

Sarcasm? 

No, I think it sounds legit.

[Bigred]

It’s Ukrainian and a passenger on board had information that would’ve led to the arrest of Hillary Clinton...🤷‍♂️

[HuggyU2]

If they hit Al Asad, it would definitely improve the place.  

 

[Breckey]

As long as I can still rummage through the piles of old MiGs then we're good

[Sim]

9 hours ago, Bob Uecker said:

No, I think it sounds legit.

You think it's legit to put out "engine fire" by a missile?   

 

 So Iran hired fire department to man those SA-15 "Tor" systems? 

[Bob Uecker]

1 minute ago, Sim said:

You think it's legit to put out "engine fire" by a missile?   

 

 So Iran hired fire department to man those SA-15 "Tor" systems? 

No? The point is that the ground based AAM crews did not understand what they were seeing when/if the 737 had a compressor stall.

[nsplayr]

The fact that a Ukrainian airline, flying a Boeing 737, crashed and/or was shot down in Iran is the unified conspiracy theory we all can get behind right now. The rare triple-crossover conspiracy, almost never seen outside the lab.

Edited January 9, 2020 by nsplayr

[nsplayr]

On 1/5/2020 at 10:39 PM, Clark Griswold said:

Not waremongering but saber rattling for right reasons, if you retaliate against us in a way that can not be accepted (i.e. you kill our civilians or other non-combatants or have your proxies commit an act of terrorism against such targets) we will cripple that which funds your government and is the vast majority of your economy.  That is the price, no apologies, no dithering, no discussion and no hesitation.

So if, hypothetically, the Houthis carry out an attack that kills a US contractor in Aden, we completely destroy the Iranian economy in a clear act of open war without discussion or hesitation? Count me out. Seems like in a representative form of government there should be some discussion of that kind of move.

 

On 1/5/2020 at 10:39 PM, Clark Griswold said:

We will destroy your oil exporting capability via stand off weapons and we will close the Strait of Hormuz, if others complain about it (left leaning nations of Europe, Asia, etc...) fine, you're own your own for other defense matters (collective security, deterrence, support, etc).

Then, after declaring war on Iran and destroying its oil economy (civilian targets BTW, great choice, may need to re-hack your LOAC training again soon), we randomly blockade critically important international shipping lanes about 6-9K miles from our shores and tell our allies in NATO and Asia to F-off and we quit, or what? This advice just keeps getting better!

I get that negotiating from a position of strength is what you want to do, and chest-beating definitely sounds cool on the internet, but this is all just astonishingly bad foreign policy advice. Even if you support the strike against QS and taking a more aggressive posture toward Iran as a counter to their assorted nefarious activities, you don't always have to turn it up to 11.

As a superpower who frequently "gets shit done," we have a lot of options between doing nothing and glassing the entire Middle East.

Edited January 9, 2020 by nsplayr

[Bob Uecker]

https://m.censor.net.ua/news/3168988/na_dvigatelyah_net_sledov_pojara_informatsiya_o_rabote_gosudarstvennoyi_komissii_po_rassledovaniyu_obstoyatelstv
 

Ukrainian investigators found no evidence that engines were on fire.

[DeskPop]

Some interesting updates on this at the secret level. Suggest getting with an Intel person or checking sipr for SA. 

[GrndPndr]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

So if, hypothetically, the Houthis carry out an attack that kills a US contractor in Aden, we completely destroy the Iranian economy in a clear act of open war without discussion or hesitation? Count me out. Seems like in a representative form of government there should be some discussion of that kind of move.

 

Then, after declaring war on Iran and destroying its oil economy (civilian targets BTW, great choice, may need to re-hack your LOAC training again soon), we randomly blockade critically important international shipping lanes about 6-9K miles from our shores and tell our allies in NATO and Asia to F-off and we quit, or what? This advice just keeps getting better!

I get that negotiating from a position of strength is what you want to do, and chest-beating definitely sounds cool on the internet, but this is all just astonishingly bad foreign policy advice. Even if you support the strike against QS and taking a more aggressive posture toward Iran as a counter to their assorted nefarious activities, you don't always have to turn it up to 11.

As a superpower who frequently "gets shit done," we have a lot of options between doing nothing and glassing the entire Middle East.

This operation (soliemani big boom) and subsequent events (not including the B738) went exactly according to plan.  We sent a message, they got the message.  We let them p*ss a little, and now we're back to where we were, except that Iran's proxy interference may be reduced somewhat next time.

Done, period - end.

(Although, I bet no one counted on all of the idiots coming out of the woodwork, to say how mean we were in taking this guy out).

[GrndPndr]

22 minutes ago, Bob Uecker said:

https://m.censor.net.ua/news/3168988/na_dvigatelyah_net_sledov_pojara_informatsiya_o_rabote_gosudarstvennoyi_komissii_po_rassledovaniyu_obstoyatelstv
 

Ukrainian investigators found no evidence that engines were on fire.

The video is from a good distance away, but clearly shows a slow descending fireball.  What specifically was on fire - good question.

[pilot]

video of the missile supposedly 

[Orbit]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html?fbclid=IwAR2xlSa1i0ZH5Qk8io5JmWWYaaQQ_Oi4oDYW1ERCdB9sPLvBA-DtjYtLFXI

 

[arg]

So the Iranians have killed almost 200 (if you count the 63 Canadians citizens) Iranians. After we killed one.

[fire4effect]

37 minutes ago, arg said:

So the Iranians have killed almost 200 (if you count the 63 Canadians citizens) Iranians. After we killed one.

We complain about our government/military but need look no farther than Iran or a multitude of other foreign sh!tholes for what truly effed up looks like.

On a side note never under estimate the effect of paranoia in the minds of the Quds/ Shiite militias (and its effect on their combat effectiveness) now that a high level target was taken out so unexpectedly, precisely and publicly. Do ya feel lucky?