Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[ClearedHot]

Just how bad is it?

 

 

[Orbit]

Very eye opening, thanks for posting this.  

Sounds like they are going to train light attack guys like we have done with the Afghan dudes.  

[Dogs-N-Guns]

With these numbers and forecasts I'm surprised stop-loss hasn't happened already.

[Azimuth]

31 minutes ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

With these numbers and forecasts I'm surprised stop-loss hasn't happened already.

Who can authorize Stop Loss?  Is it the President or Congress, or the SECDEF and Service Secretary?

[ClearedHot]

Recent controversial legislation was pursued by senior USAF officials that would seek to delegate that authority down to the service level.  I would imagine they are near the threshold and should the balloon go up with NK it would be on in an instant.  I would say get out as quickly as possible but I personally think the situation is so bad they would immediately recall folks to active duty.

[Majestik Møøse]

Gen Goldfien,

You’re doing a great job. You understand what’s important and have the most combat street cred of any CSAF in the last 20 years. That said, if you let combat capability worth $Billions walk out the door to save $300m annually in bonus money, you’ll destroy our Air Force. None of these slides talk about the cost of a $100k bonus (a pittance) vs the exponentially increased costs of continual experienced pilot backfill production. The bottom line - if you don’t pay us more, you will continue to spend $Billions to solve the airlines’ pilot production problems. You’re making them money. Most of us see staying in the Air Force as the equivalent of paying $Millions in opportunity costs to continue serving. It’s hard to look at the wife and kids and tell them that we’re forgoing all that money and QOL to keep going on adventures. Army vets in Congress pushing back? Joint Staff complaining? They don’t understand the problem. Tell it like it is.

 

Sincerely,

A 2x MWS IP

[BFM this]

22 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

I would imagine they are near the threshold and should the balloon go up with NK it would be in in an instant. 

Current law already allows for this and I'd think that it would be expected.

[Hopefulflyer389]

I like how they spent so much time on their graphs to show that they’re in trouble instead of researching why they’re in trouble.  

[snoopyeast]

Might be some interesting opportunities for 11Rs. 

 

Or not, the AF will probably screw that up.

[Bobby]

Good luck getting those of us who’ve reached escape velocity to ever come back. They’ll have a hell of a time finding me if they ever come looking. I’ve been out for two years and would never go back (barring an actual shooting war).

[Blue]

USAF may be screwed, but damn do they make some good-looking powerpoint decks!

[green_blue_pilot]

I was one of those folks waiting for the FWQ to open up again. Maybe it will happen again?

 

[flyusaf83]

36 minutes ago, snoopyeast said:

Might be some interesting opportunities for 11Rs. 

 

Or not, the AF will probably screw that up.

11Rs are manning UPT bills very heavily in the spring and summer VML.

[17D_guy]

Those RPA  bonus taker numbers were pretty interesting.  Not as bad as advertised or am I reading something wrong.  I'm not used to such grand slides.

[polcat]

Is there a breakdown by Year Group and/or MWS?

[viper154]

12 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Those RPA  bonus taker numbers were pretty interesting.  Not as bad as advertised or am I reading something wrong.  I'm not used to such grand slides.

I would wait to see what the numbers for next year are. Those 12/13Us are prior navs/abms that we’re part of the pilot program for 18x career field, and the first lot of the 18 program we’re prior service types. But I could be wrong, I’m in a rather specialized corner of the RPA enterprise that has a lot of high paying contracting jobs. 

 

But hopefuly good news for those of us trying to get back to the cockpit.  

[Breckey]

Looks like the 11H bonus will remain lower than the others. Something to be said about not having a quick path to the airlines or other high paying post-AF flying options.

[JustHangingOut]

7 minutes ago, Breckey said:

Looks like the 11H bonus will remain lower than the others. Something to be said about not having a quick path to the airlines or other high paying post-AF flying options.

wait until the word spreads more about the rotary wing transition programs a lot of airlines are offering these days.

[TRex]

Wow those are some great slides!  Definitely promote that guy!

In other news, my airline’s profit sharing $$$ just posted to my account today...

gtfo!!!!

[Hunter Rose]

AF is not going to get to $100K bonus any time soon, but seems they could easily offer $50-65K this year since we were just at $50K per year for fighter guys a couple years ago. 

Offer $65K annual bonus without long commitments (1-2 years max) and I think you'd get enough takers to at least stem the bleeding.  It wouldn't reverse the trend but at least it would slow it down and buy AF some time.

The $35K bonus is a joke .

The AF waited too long and missed it's window to fix culture.  Now they  need to throw money at the problem in the short term.  That's what I've put on everyone of of the 4 aircrew retention crisis surveys I've taken in the last month.

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Hunter Rose

[matmacwc]

The bonus take rates surprise me, especially the fighter ones.

[nunya]

19 minutes ago, matmacwc said:

The bonus take rates surprise me, especially the fighter ones.

High or low?

[Guest]

AF is not going to get to $100K bonus any time soon, but seems they could easily offer $50-65K this year since we were just at $50K per year for fighter guys a couple years ago. 
Offer $65K annual bonus without long commitments (1-2 years max) and I think you'd get enough takers to at least stem the bleeding.  It wouldn't reverse the trend but at least it would slow it down and buy AF some time.
The $35K bonus is a joke .
The AF waited too long and missed it's window to fix culture.  Now they  need to throw money at the problem in the short term.  That's what I've put on everyone of of the 4 aircrew retention crisis surveys I've taken in the last month.
 

Uh, since when did they ever offer 50? It’s been capped at 25 by Federal Law until a couple years ago, and it’s currently capped at 35.

[StoleIt]

4 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I would say get out as quickly as possible but I personally think the situation is so bad they would immediately recall folks to active duty.

At least those who get out and get hired at a major prior to any Stop Loss will keep getting seniority while the AF fumbles around figuring things out.

Also...I'd be curious as to how the AF would place/employ people coming back from a Stop Loss. They have to realize most of those people are going to do the bare minimum:

Edited February 14, 2018 by StoleIt

[Sprkt69]

19 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

At least those who get out and get hired at a major prior to any Stop Loss will keep getting seniority while the AF fumbles around figuring things out.

Also...I'd be curious as to how the AF would place/employ people coming back from a Stop Loss. They have to realize most of those people are going to do the bare minimum:

For the Task Force dedicated to this problem, I would bet it all that people forced back not enjoying life is not even part of the equation. Pilots are just numbers to them and their PowerPoint slides don’t care about your feelings or actual combat power or even winning.