Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[brickhistory]

36 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Update: just notified today that I'm stop lossed. Submitted for resignation last November. If anybody has any suggestions on how to fight this, I'd appreciate it. 

I'm a TR. 

1.  Dear Congressman...

2. Dear Senator 1...

3. Dear Senator 2...

 

As a start.

[Jaded]

19 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

1.  Dear Congressman...

2. Dear Senator 1...

3. Dear Senator 2...

 

As a start.

From what I understand, congressional inquiries (like the IG) are pretty worthless. 

[SocialD]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

Update: just notified today that I'm stop lossed. Submitted for resignation last November. If anybody has any suggestions on how to fight this, I'd appreciate it. 

I'm a TR. 

ANG or AFRC?  Did they say for how long?  We only get enough pay cards for 4 days/month, I'd start by only showing up for those days.   

[Jaded]

2 minutes ago, SocialD said:

ANG or AFRC?  Did they say for how long?  We only get enough pay cards for 4 days/month, I'd start by only showing up for those days.   

AFRC. They said I'm required to stay in until the end of the year (I assume fiscal). There is no assurance that I'll be let go at that time though - just that I'll be allowed to try again.

It's like this inescapable loop, with my family caught in the middle -

1. 4Q17 - Submit  letter of resignation

2. 1Q18 - Letter not signed.

3. 2Q18 - Letter not signed.

5. April 4th - Because your letter is not signed, you're stop lossed. Try again next October 1st. Go to step 1.

I'm not qualified to fly my airplane anymore (I stopped flying a few months prior to submitting my letter of resignation). I'm not even assigned a job.

[hindsight2020]

5 hours ago, Jaded said:

AFRC. They said I'm required to stay in until the end of the year (I assume fiscal). There is no assurance that I'll be let go at that time though - just that I'll be allowed to try again.

It's like this inescapable loop, with my family caught in the middle -

1. 4Q17 - Submit  letter of resignation

2. 1Q18 - Letter not signed.

3. 2Q18 - Letter not signed.

5. April 4th - Because your letter is not signed, you're stop lossed. Try again next October 1st. Go to step 1.

I'm not qualified to fly my airplane anymore (I stopped flying a few months prior to submitting my letter of resignation). I'm not even assigned a job.

You have a pretty good case for the IG due to the stonewalling of not getting a signature on 1 and 2 QTR FY 18. Unless the non-signature is for cause (pending FEB, MEB, admin UCMJ action), they're gonna have to honor your November date, which would fall well before the 4 April date they have given as the deadline for honoring requests. But we simply don't know the circumstances behind your loss of qualification. That may be the sticking point and you may not want to expand about it on here, which is certainly your prerogative. 

As to the practical implications of this scenario? Just like @SocialD described, it's basically high time to idle-boards participation. UTAs are the only required periods needed to gain a good Reserve year, and AT are the only days your SQ/CC can legally compel you to the squadron and away from your civilian responsibilities (plus the MUTA(s)). If you've already burn those, they can't do fog all. For someone who is already dead to the unit due to the loss of qualification, this is only being done to pad the numbers. What is most likely to happen is you'll submit your IG, everybody will get umbraged, you'll get your signature effective 1 Oct 18. Then, just like two years ago, loss management will get lifted on 1 Oct 18 and you'll be on your way out. I don't have any reason to believe based on earlier loss management that they will concurrently implement loss management on 1 Oct 18 to keep folks for the entire FY 19. Usually these implementations have happened mid-FY, just like this one.

Personally I think it's a complete loss on everybody's part that people end their service tenure on such jaded and toxic terms. It truly is a loss for everybody involved. Then again I've also encountered the opposite, people whose attitude is so price-elastic that the second they make a nickel an hour more per duty period at the airline than at the unit, having two jobs is all of a sudden the biggest affront to their livelihoods and the welfare of their children you could ever impose on them. It's a bit much sometimes. That said, the invol IA BS is what's killing manning these days, I'd say even above and beyond TSPs and/or unit-wide mobs.

 

[Jaded]

Thanks for the words. The non-signature is from bureaucratic incompetence at the FSS; nothing administrative. 

I didn't lose my qual for any sinister reason. I did a QOL benefit analysis and told my unit I was going to move on when my palace chase ADSC expired. It's simply been so long since my fini flight that my form 8 is long expired. 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Jaded

[brickhistory]

11 hours ago, Jaded said:

From what I understand, congressional inquiries (like the IG) are pretty worthless. 

As always, it depends.

But in trying to get movement/resolution on your particular issue, sometimes it is easier for the powers that be to simply correct their mistake than it is to explain to the Congressional enquiry as to why they screwed the pooch.

The military chain of command's goal will be to "make the bad man (Congress) go away."  If it's easier to simply sign the forms that let you get on your way and not have to explain the f' up, you might have some success.

Or, the military can explain why they screwed the pooch.  Either way, you will make leadership devote time/attention to your issue.  How they respond to it is a crapshoot, but they will have to respond to it.

Make sure you speak to the military staffer if you contact your representatives.  Have your info at hand and make it easy for the staff to ask the pointed questions that will make the military squirm.  

[Buddy Spike]

2 hours ago, ROCK 10 said:

Jaded, keep in mind that if you resign/retire now vs. moving to the IRR - you'll be locking in your retired points value in 2018.

Most folks stay in the IRR and still accumulate longevity, PLUS you'll get the points value in the FY of your 60th birthday - could be worth a few hundred bucks a month down the line...  Just sayin'  - best of luck!

Can you gain points in the IRR without doing a CAT E position?

[ROCK 10]

2 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

Can you gain points in the IRR without doing a CAT E position?

Unsure, but the info above may be dated...

The retirement "points value" for a retired O-5 has already gone up .03 cents per point since FY16 (worth an extra $150/mo for someone with 5000 ARC retirement points).  I'd hate to see someone lose out on this by not staying in the IRR until 60 - assuming they have 20+ good years.

Sorry for the de-rail..

Edited March 31, 2018 by ROCK 10
clarity

[cragspider]

This was posted over at TPN Air Force May Approve Enlisted Pilots for First Time in 75 Years  . I find it funny that our leaders still think we have a production problem when it’s a retention problem. Oh well this train will keep on chugging off the tracks until they finally realize that producing more will not help the problem. 

Edited March 31, 2018 by cragspider
Correct title for link

[nunya]

Plenty of enlisted members fly for the airlines.  Let's pay for their training and give them wings so they can get their faster!  Win for them.  

Edited March 31, 2018 by nunya

[M2]

35 minutes ago, cragspider said:

This was posted over at TPN Air Force May Approve Enlisted Pilots for First Time in 75 Years  . I find it funny that our leaders still think we have a production problem when it’s a retention problem. Oh well this train will keep on chugging off the tracks until they finally realize that producing more will not help the problem. 

I wouldn't take anything posted on Military.com as official, even if quoting "Enlisted Jesus"...

The USAF is already producing enlisted RPA drivers, which will be the extent of it.  If anything, expect that pipeline will expand.  Nothing else.

[raimius]

2 hours ago, cragspider said:

This was posted over at TPN Air Force May Approve Enlisted Pilots for First Time in 75 Years  . I find it funny that our leaders still think we have a production problem when it’s a retention problem. Oh well this train will keep on chugging off the tracks until they finally realize that producing more will not help the problem. 

I think they know we have a retention problem.  I think they just gave up and decided to "grow their way out of the problem" rather than face the reality of why they can't retain enough experience.

[dream big]

Not sure what the hype is, there is already a program for enlisted to become pilots: it’s called OTS...

[Azimuth]

The Chiefs will never allow this to happen. Especially the warrant part.

[BroncoEN]

I think it’s a superb idea. The warrants can fly so us officers can focus on TMT approving MICT, flying is getting in the way. 

[SurelySerious]

40 minutes ago, Azimuth said:

The E-9s will never allow this to happen. 

Let’s be real. 

[nsplayr]

1 hour ago, dream big said:

Not sure what the hype is, there is already a program for enlisted to become pilots: it’s called OTS...

I've been saying this all along too. Being an "enlisted pilot" is a pretty shit deal for the folks who might do it. Same responsibilities as a commissioned pilot, for what, half the pay? Screw that. Give Wing Commanders the ability to nominate folks to dedicated OTS slots, quick turn around, and boom, you have a new officer ready to become a pilot. Absent a Warrant Officer program, sending high performers who would be great pilots to OTS real quick seems like the easiest solution.

Edited April 1, 2018 by nsplayr

[viper154]

5 hours ago, M2 said:

I wouldn't take anything posted on Military.com as official, even if quoting "Enlisted Jesus"...

The USAF is already producing enlisted RPA drivers, which will be the extent of it.  If anything, expect that pipeline will expand.  Nothing else.

Even that’s a reach. I know almost nothing about the RQ-4, but the global hawk is the only place there are enlisted pilots, and from what I’m told it’s more “systems management” than tradional pilot type things. 

 

Im just spit ballin from my little corner of the AF but I would say it would take 5+ years of enlisted guys proving themselves in the MQ-9 before they saw manned slots, and I haven’t heard anything about that happening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it soon though, you heard it here first, but in 12-18 months the drone pilot shortage is going to be just as bad if not worse than the manned side. 

Alpha bros and UPT dirtects are all being sent back manned, initial 18x commitments are up and they are all punching, and the 18x pipeline for pilots and sensors can’t keep up. 

[Bode]

I've been saying this all along too. Being an "enlisted pilot" is a pretty shit deal for the folks who might do it. Same responsibilities as a commissioned pilot, for what, half the pay? Screw that. Give Wing Commanders the ability to nominate folks to dedicated OTS slots, quick turn around, and boom, you have a new officer ready to become a pilot. Absent a Warrant Officer program, sending high performers who would be great pilots to OTS real quick seems like the easiest solution.

If only it was that easy. Word on the street is big AF cancelled all 2018 AD OTS boards....guess we don’t need people.

[cragspider]

1 hour ago, viper154 said:

Even that’s a reach. I know almost nothing about the RQ-4, but the global hawk is the only place there are enlisted pilots, and from what I’m told it’s more “systems management” than tradional pilot type things. 

 

Im just spit ballin from my little corner of the AF but I would say it would take 5+ years of enlisted guys proving themselves in the MQ-9 before they saw manned slots, and I haven’t heard anything about that happening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it soon though, you heard it here first, but in 12-18 months the drone pilot shortage is going to be just as bad if not worse than the manned side. 

Alpha bros and UPT dirtects are all being sent back manned, initial 18x commitments are up and they are all punching, and the 18x pipeline for pilots and sensors can’t keep up. 

The only thing I can see is that they slow down the Alpha tour returnees when they figure this out. Hell I’ve straight up asked the RPA functional if they are even thinking about what to do when all the initial 18x folks start punching which they aren’t even thinking about that yet. The only saving grace is that they have told all the upt directs they will be gone by the end of 19. 

[LookieRookie]

Are the UPT-Dv2.0 meeting the RPA recat board?

[cragspider]

43 minutes ago, LookieRookie said:

Are the UPT-Dv2.0 meeting the RPA recat board?

No they aren’t. The recat board is for folks who have been out of their primary mws for a long time or who have been in for 13 years or longer. Plus they have changed the way they are doing recats if I understood the functional correctly. This board is more of a way to look at guys who want to stay. But then again can we really trust A1 anymore? 

[Azimuth]

On 3/31/2018 at 9:03 PM, cragspider said:

No they aren’t. The recat board is for folks who have been out of their primary mws for a long time or who have been in for 13 years or longer. Plus they have changed the way they are doing recats if I understood the functional correctly. This board is more of a way to look at guys who want to stay. But then again can we really trust A1 anymore? 

The A1 are the idiots who helped fuel the manning mess to begin with.

[ClearedHot]

The GAO is out with a new report sounding the alarm of the Fighter Pilot shortage across DoD.  Fully 1/4 of all Fighter Pilot billets are now empty.  There were some interesting gems in the report like how the Navy tried to normalize some of the shortages by EXTENDING deployments.  Also, over the past four years over 1/3 of the USAF's Fighter Pilots have elected to leave the service.