Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[nunya]

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

[FourFans]

44 minutes ago, nunya said:

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

This

[MDDieselPilot]

7 hours ago, Klepto said:

So you can have 5 short tours, but if you were lucky enough to get a break for 5 years (or if you are in a job where you're TDY a lot, but never "deployed") you'll be at the top of the list, with guys that have only ever deployed 45 consecutive days in the last 5 years.

Tha AF and all their clever equations... *facepalm*

No.  I believe the criteria was posted already.  IIRC Anyone with 45 consecutive days or more in the last 5 years goes to the bottom.  Number of short tours, STRD, and ODSD are then used.  So in your example you'd very likely not be a candidate. 

[MDDieselPilot]

6 hours ago, nunya said:

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

This.  Aside from almost everyone having 45 days in the last 5 years, the last number I heard was that we're going through 7 folks to fill each 365 due to retiring, bailing at 15+ years, etc.  From what I've seen in my neck of the woods, that seems in the ballpark.

[Bode]

This.  Aside from almost everyone having 45 days in the last 5 years, the last number I heard was that we're going through 7 folks to fill each 365 due to retiring, bailing at 15+ years, etc.  From what I've seen in my neck of the woods, that seems in the ballpark.

It took 15 people for one to stick with my deputy group. It was an 11G billet. The two other fixed wing advisors replacing myself and a Maj both volunteered.

[MDDieselPilot]

57 minutes ago, Bode said:

 

 

It took 15 people for one to stick with my deputy group. It was an 11G billet. The two other fixed wing advisors replacing myself and a Maj both volunteered.

 

That's the type of example I'd love to hear a more senior dude's perspective.  I'd like to think that OG or WG/CC mentioned to their MAJCOM/CC that they just lost 15 highly qualified folks to fill an 11G spot, and the MAJCOM/CC call CENTCOM (or wherever) and say WTF OVER.  Was it really worth it?  Did they *really* do a complete scrub of deployed billets and deem each one worthy of the cost to fill them? 

[SFG]

2 hours ago, MDDieselPilot said:

No.  I believe the criteria was posted already.  IIRC Anyone with 45 consecutive days or more in the last 5 years goes to the bottom.  Number of short tours, STRD, and ODSD are then used.  So in your example you'd very likely not be a candidate. 

Right. I’d be at the bottom of the top candidates, with the 45 day-only guy at the very bottom. Makes perfect sense.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Klepto

[pawnman]

The way they said it was that you'd be ineligible for a 365 for five years, not just the bottom of the list. Sorry if that was misleading. Take a deployment in year 15 and you'll be good until retirement.

[Duck]

I’m freaking out about this stuff here. If I don’t get passed over it will have been over 5 years deployed thanks to my T-6 and PIT tours. Any clue on when these are going to be dealt out? Last I heard they were starting in April, but I haven’t heard any rumors of guys getting hit up.

[nunya]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

The way they said it was that you'd be ineligible for a 365 for five years, not just the bottom of the list. Sorry if that was misleading. Take a deployment in year 15 and you'll be good until retirement.

I simply don't believe them.

[MooseAg03]

I for one hope they don’t figure this mess out for another 6-9 months before I’ll be eligible to 3 day opt. I understand trying to be equitable by using short tour return date and such, but maybe they should also look at retainability as well.

I have seen one drop recently, it was 3 day opted. It was for a Sept ‘18 - Sept ‘19 in place with safety training beginning this month. Can’t get out soon enough.

[17D_guy]

12 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

This

 

13 hours ago, nunya said:

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

Wait...this can actually happen?  Everything I've seen (non-pilot) when someone does that it's a quick out the door.

[MDDieselPilot]

7 hours ago, Klepto said:

Right. I’d be at the bottom of the top candidates, with the 45 day-only guy at the very bottom. Makes perfect sense.

Do you actually have 5 short tours?  In the communities I've been a part of, that is highly uncommon.  I'd be shocked if someone with that many ST's got tagged with a 365 at any point in their career.  Perhaps I'm missing something though...

[ThreeHoler]

Per AFPC (MAF Assignments Facebook) # of ST is still king followed by recent deployments

If no one has an ST then the list is only people without >45 in the last 5. If everyone has >45 in the last 5 then all are even. The HAF intent is to deploy the slugs who have never deployed.

If someone has a ST they are at the bottom bottom unless everyone has same # of ST and deployed >45 in 5.

[nunya]

5 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

Wait...this can actually happen?  Everything I've seen (non-pilot) when someone does that it's a quick out the door.

Happened to me, and I still don't know what shady shit went down.  Tasker came down, I was 4th in line behind 3 O-5s.  They all dropped paperwork, I deployed.  At least 1 of them was still in the Wing when I got home almost a year later.

[Guest]

Per AFPC (MAF Assignments Facebook) # of ST is still king followed by recent deployments

If no one has an ST then the list is only people without >45 in the last 5. If everyone has >45 in the last 5 then all are even. The HAF intent is to deploy the slugs who have never deployed.

If someone has a ST they are at the bottom bottom unless everyone has same # of ST and deployed >45 in 5.

Might want to reread the official policy. The MAF posts are pretty confusing and contradictory. Ultimately it comes down to 45 day deployments as the main discriminator, not short tours.

[ThreeHoler]

Might want to reread the official policy. The MAF posts are pretty confusing and contradictory. Ultimately it comes down to 45 day deployments as the main discriminator, not short tours.

I’ve read the official policy. I sent it to JQP before it was even widely known. I’ve also talked to the people who do the sourcing so I trust what I know.

A 45 day deployment does not trump a STRD all other things equal.

[tac airlifter]

11 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

 I sent it to JQP before it was even widely known. 

 

Yikes bro.  You behind the Wikileaks stuff too?

[Guest]

I’ve read the official policy. I sent it to JQP before it was even widely known. I’ve also talked to the people who do the sourcing so I trust what I know.

A 45 day deployment does not trump a STRD all other things equal.

Alright. Enjoy your perceived STRD blanket until it dissolves when you get a 365 earlier than expected.

[Guest]

Alright. Enjoy your perceived STRD blanket until it dissolves when you get a 365 earlier than expected.

[HarleyQuinn]

6 hours ago, MDDieselPilot said:

Do you actually have 5 short tours?  In the communities I've been a part of, that is highly uncommon.  I'd be shocked if someone with that many ST's got tagged with a 365 at any point in their career.  Perhaps I'm missing something though...

This guy has 3 short tours under the belt. Functional told me I'm butt naked last and will never receive a 365! 

[FourFans]

13 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

 

Wait...this can actually happen?  Everything I've seen (non-pilot) when someone does that it's a quick out the door.

When the stack is only 15 deep against 20 requirements...yes it can.

Also, watched AFPC get rid of 9 rated guys (my friend was #9, which is how I found out) by giving them AFPAK HANDS as their next PCS a few years ago.  All 9 separated or retired instead of taking it.  Rumor has it they finally pinned the rose on a guy that had already volunteered.  Rumor also holds that the AFPC functionals are sometimes directed to use bad assignments like that as "force management tool".  I have strong doubts about the truth behind those rumors, but finding them true wouldn't shock me either.

"Integrity First"

Edited May 10, 2018 by FourFans130
words

[jazzdude]

Well, this puts another point in the "get out" column for me. Bust my butt as a young single dude to get a short tour so when I'm ready to start a family I won't have the threat of a 365, only to have that taken away. Follow that with an AETC assignment and an attached flyer assignment, and now I'm hot for a 365. Only so I can probably go to staff next assignment.

Time to start updating my airline apps again...

[pcola]

The doc IHTFP posted certainly reads like deployments within last 5 years trumps # of short tours. Seems like they’re saying “yeah, but what have you done for me lately?”

[pawnman]

40 minutes ago, pcola said:

The doc IHTFP posted certainly reads like deployments within last 5 years trumps # of short tours. Seems like they’re saying “yeah, but what have you done for me lately?”

On the other hand, it means even a two-month deployment will be enough to keep you out of the 365 WEZ for five years.