Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[RTB]

3 hours ago, joe1234 said:

True, but having a low seniority number at a legacy airline makes life much easier too. Every time I see a guy break down the math of staying vs. going, they always come out much farther ahead by getting out ASAP.

Like investing, you go with the risk you can tolerate.

 

Seniority is everything at an airline as long as you are actually working.  I remember a bunch of guys back in the late 90's crunching the numbers in the squadron and the math then, like now, clearly said GET OUT NOW!!!  Many did, most were promptly hired, almost all were quickly furloughed, and were then begging for a job.  At any time, anything can happen to dramatically change the landscape.  In 1998, you COULD NOT LOSE by going to an airline!  The math ALWAYS came out ahead by getting out ASAP...until there wasn't a job.

[BashiChuni]

I don’t know if the airlines were facing the same mandatory retirement numbers for the next 10+ years in 1999.....

maybe they were. Old timers?

[icohftb]

No

[RTB]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

I don’t know if the airlines were facing the same mandatory retirement numbers for the next 10+ years in 1999.....

maybe they were. Old timers?

Valid point.  But at Delta at least, we have been steadily hiring WAY more per year than even our peak year will see in retirements.  

[BashiChuni]

just keep it going for 2.5 years more baby thats all im asking for...

[MooseAg03]

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

[Homestar]

2 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

When they come for the military pension we’ll have bigger problems I think. 

[Azimuth]

10 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

Any Congressman who even mildly suggests revoking military pensions would be committing political suicide for their career.  Then the focus would turn to their pensions and it would become a mess.

 

 

[panchbarnes]

The great BRS Opt-In of 2018.

[sputnik]

54 minutes ago, Azimuth said:

Any Congressman who even mildly suggests revoking military pensions would be committing political suicide for their career.  Then the focus would turn to their pensions and it would become a mess.

 

 

They cut it back in 12 I think it was.  For "working age" military retirees they lopped the COLA.  One time catch up at 65.  It passed as part of a larger bill.  Saw Ryan give many a speech in defense of it.

Was eventually repealed, but they've done it once.

[Genghis John]

I won’t doubt the check of the month club padding is nice but in this given situation, the force retirements/mass hiring just to fill seats (not necessarily grow). I’d say you have just enough furlough protection with the numbers being hired behind you if your an early 2020s hire. About the same certainty that the gov isn’t going to chip away at your retirement. 

[Merle Dixon]

On 5/17/2018 at 12:54 AM, Homestar said:

When they come for the military pension we’ll have bigger problems I think. 

On 5/17/2018 at 9:28 AM, Azimuth said:

Any Congressman who even mildly suggests revoking military pensions would be committing political suicide for their career.  Then the focus would turn to their pensions and it would become a mess.

 

 

 

“We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we can not guarantee their purchasing power.”

-Alan Greenspan

[Snooter]

On 5/16/2018 at 10:49 PM, MooseAg03 said:

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

Well thank the good lord I’m getting an extra few grand back over the next 5-7 years from this tax cut...  

[SocialD]

On 5/17/2018 at 9:50 AM, joe1234 said:

They won't revoke it all at once. They'll chip at it little by little, along with Tricare to the point where it becomes imperceptible to the general public.

I'll be very surprised if Tricare is still there when I hit 60 (part timer retirement)...at least in anywhere near it's current form.  I'm fairly confident the pension will be there, although they may have long stopped yearly COLAs by the time I get there.  Like social security, when I run my retirement numbers, I assume it wont be there.  If they happen to be there, all the better.

[nunya]

Man if I was convinced Tricare would be totally gone in 20 years when it's my turn to use it, I'd have 1 job tomorrow!  The pension is not why I'm still occasionally wearing the uniform.

[Guardian]

I'll be very surprised if Tricare is still there when I hit 60 (part timer retirement)...at least in anywhere near it's current form.  I'm fairly confident the pension will be there, although they may have long stopped yearly COLAs by the time I get there.  Like social security, when I run my retirement numbers, I assume it wont be there.  If they happen to be there, all the better.

Is it a pension or annuity? I’ve heard it both ways.

[MooseAg03]

Well thank the good lord I’m getting an extra few grand back over the next 5-7 years from this tax cut...  

Actually, it seems tax revenue is up following the tax cuts. It probably would have increased without the reform due to the improving economy, but it doesn’t matter a whole hell of a lot when Congress keeps spending a shit ton more than we bring in.

I know sequestration hurt, but the massive omnibus we just passed is not the right answer. The pain will come sooner or later, and right now we’re just pushing that pain on to my future grandkids and I hate it.

[DirtyFlightSuit]

1 hour ago, MooseAg03 said:

Actually, it seems tax revenue is up following the tax cuts. It probably would have increased without the reform due to the improving economy, but it doesn’t matter a whole hell of a lot when Congress keeps spending a shit ton more than we bring in.

I know sequestration hurt, but the massive omnibus we just passed is not the right answer. The pain will come sooner or later, and right now we’re just pushing that pain on to my future grandkids and I hate it.

I know of a few military operations we could conclude that would save a pretty penny. 😉 Not to mention reduce deployments, increase time at home, improve QoL.  

 

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, DirtyFlightSuit said:

I know of a few military operations we could conclude that would save a pretty penny. 😉 Not to mention reduce deployments, increase time at home, improve QoL.  

 

But we've "turned the corner".....for the 15th time.

[HossHarris]

4 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

....and right now we’re just pushing that pain on to my future grandkids and I hate it.

I ponder How many generations of Americans have said that in the past .... and yet the machine keeps on keeping on .....

[Karl Hungus]

On 5/17/2018 at 9:50 AM, joe1234 said:

They won't revoke it all at once. They'll chip at it little by little, along with Tricare to the point where it becomes imperceptible to the general public.

The big gamechanger will be when they change the AD retirement so that you start to collect at age 60, matching an ARC retirement.  It’s coming.  Hopefully we will be “grandfathered” in.  

[Karl Hungus]

13 hours ago, HossHarris said:

I ponder How many generations of Americans have said that in the past .... and yet the machine keeps on keeping on .....

That’s intentional and by design.  The defense industrial complex at its finest- too big to fail.

[Grady]

22 hours ago, HossHarris said:

I ponder How many generations of Americans have said that in the past .... and yet the machine keeps on keeping on .....

Petrodollar cycle...

national debt doesn’t matter as long as you have the world reserve currency. 

[nsplayr]

On 5/18/2018 at 5:28 PM, MooseAg03 said:

Actually, it seems tax revenue is up following the tax cuts. It probably would have increased without the reform due to the improving economy, but it doesn’t matter a whole hell of a lot when Congress keeps spending a shit ton more than we bring in.

Minor point, but Fed tax receipts data only goes through 2017 Q4 as far as I’ve seen and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law in Dec of 2017, won’t be super notice let for workers until tax season 2019 for the CY2018.

The only real thing you could potentially see so far is when Q1 data from the Fed comes out if receipts are higher or lower than Q4 of 2017 since withholdings for most workers have been adjusted and businesses would have paid their first quarter of taxes at the new rates.

Like you mentioned however, it’s gonna hard to break out that signal one way or the other among the noise of the ebbs and flows of normal short-term economic expansion and contraction and also the long-term economic growth that has continued for many years now with only one quarter of data.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Edited May 20, 2018 by nsplayr

[war007afa]

On 5/19/2018 at 4:15 AM, uhhello said:

But we've "turned the corner".....for the 15th time.

So, full circle then?