Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[Clark Griswold]

18 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Does it apply to guard and reservists?

Yes

Wiki on Stop Loss:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop-loss_policy

US Code DoD policy is based on:  https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/12305

[hindsight2020]

 

All "volunteer" force....

 

 

[di1630]

This is sad to read about what could be such a great job....however as I take stock of things and look back, when I was a Lt, many of the D-bag capt/maj types we all hated and hoped would never be in charge are now wearing eagles and stars. Most of the guys I looked up to for their skill, attitude and bromanship are out altogether or in the guard/reserves.

Sadly, from a line flying FGO perspective 10 years later, many of the young guys being pushed and groomed for success are the ones that are simply going to carry on the current problems as they look to maintain the system that got them where they are.

Of course there are exceptions on both sides but it’s a damn shame.

[General Chang]

15 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Oh hey look Chang is back, awesome...said no one ever.

Come on dude spill the beans on how far this mess has moved in the past few weeks.

Uh, Geesh.  Thanks.

It's not a mess.  It is a disaster.  Complete disaster.  Supposedly stop loss will not happen.  Supposedly.

[Hacker]

33 minutes ago, General Chang said:

It's not a mess.  It is a disaster.  Complete disaster.  Supposedly stop loss will not happen.  Supposedly.

How many Flag-level officers realize that the bright, shiny low-hanging fruit they're chasing in attempts to "fix" the disaster are not the actual root causes?

More importantly, do they realize they are both the living embodiment of the problems forcing pilots out the door, as well as the key to fixing those actual root causes?

 

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, General Chang said:

Uh, Geesh.  Thanks.

It's not a mess.  It is a disaster.  Complete disaster.  Supposedly stop loss will not happen.  Supposedly.

I get it...will you answer one question?

Are smart folks at least trying to tell them the approach is wrong?

[SocialD]

12 hours ago, Guardian said:

Does it apply to guard and reservists?

 

11 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Yes

Wiki on Stop Loss:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop-loss_policy

US Code DoD policy is based on:  https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/12305

 

Ha, I could just imagine if they stop-lossed any of our, about to separate, part-timers.  They'll give you 4 days of their choosing to get them 6 sorties (which is what most of us do anyway), if they don't get them, oh well.  Watch alarm goes off at the 8 hour mark and they'll get up in the middle of the debrief and go home.  If you want them to go TDY you'll likely have to activate them.  PT test 5 months overdue, SABC CBTs overdue...huh that sucks.  It would actually be comical to see...what a mess!  

After my last "deployment" (a TSP), I realized just how fucked we are.  The MAJCOM was more worried that all our BS CBTs/red dot training was checked off than what we were doing tactically.  Our priorities are so fucked!  My 20 can't get here soon enough!  

[Swizzle]

https://www.af.mil/mobile/News/Article/1443863/air-force-vice-chief-of-staff-to-congress-help-us-win-any-fight-at-any-time/

Humans are more important than hardware. This SOF truth applies to the masses too. Just buying more planes and acquiring more flying hours to enable the AF's grow-out-of-this problem isn't going to work (as WE all know). 

How far, how big, will this retention problem get before they accept this SOF truth? What do y'all think?

I wonder, what was the tipping point that significantly increased bonuses in the past? 38% take-rates? What will it be now?

Will the 1-2 year bonus takers be the tipping point? Hundreds took short bonuses/commitments,  will they be persuaded to stay by the AF's recent "fixes"?

[Duck]

Until we see massive amounts of planes/pilots going down, the AF will not change. In the world of spreadsheets, a “1” is a “1”, doesn’t matter if one is an IP and one is a brand new UPT grad.

[TnkrToad]

[quote
Will the 1-2 year bonus takers be the tipping point? Hundreds took short bonuses/commitments,  will they be persuaded to stay by the AF's recent "fixes"?


No.

[gimmeaplane]

9 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I get it...will you answer one question?

Are smart folks at least trying to tell them the approach is wrong?

Has anybody validated that Chang is in a position to answer such questions (besides himself)?

[Champ Kind]

48 minutes ago, gimmeaplane said:

Has anybody validated that Chang is in a position to answer such questions (besides himself)?

Pretty sure I remember him self-IDing as a troll last spring sometime. 

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Champ Kind said:

Pretty sure I remember him self-IDing as a troll last spring sometime. 

This.  The trolling was strong with that one...

[HeyWatchThis]

9 hours ago, Duck said:

Until we see massive amounts of planes/pilots going down, the AF will not change. In the world of spreadsheets, a “1” is a “1”, doesn’t matter if one is an IP and one is a brand new UPT grad.

So true man.....small data point but A1 just swiped all of our "open" full time positions and voila are now reporting us from "less than 50% manned" to fully green on full time manning....
 

[HU&W]

3 hours ago, Champ Kind said:

Pretty sure I remember him self-IDing as a troll last spring sometime. 

Yep, dude finally snapped out of the troll identity a few crises ago, made a few value-added posts, then disappeared for awhile.

Edited February 19, 2018 by HU&W

[DosXX]

643 pilot selects from ROTC this year vs. 345 two years ago... any idea how they plan to push this many pilots through when there is already a massive backlog? Short of cutting down UPT or adding another training base I'm not seeing how this is going to be possible.

[LiquidSky]

29 minutes ago, DosXX said:

643 pilot selects from ROTC this year vs. 345 two years ago... any idea how they plan to push this many pilots through when there is already a massive backlog? Short of cutting down UPT or adding another training base I'm not seeing how this is going to be possible.

By burying their heads in the sand and pretending there isn't a problem? Don't have to fix what you don't admit is broken. You already have some LTs from rotc waiting for nearly a year to enter active duty or spending a ridiculous amount of time on casual status. We have some of the highest paid gate guards, bus drivers, marshalers that can't marshal,  etc. as a result of casual.

 I'm a little more concerned that the average pcsm of a pilot select Cadet is down 14 points, GPA down 0.13, Pfa by 1.5. CSOs are down by similar numbers as well. Do y'all think that there will be a noticeable difference in quality of the average stud? Or a higher washout rate as a result? Obviously these #s aren't the best metric in the world to predict flying ability but I would expect to see some future correlation.

Edited February 19, 2018 by LiquidSky

[LiquidSky]

2015 (381) and 2016 (345) rotc numbers for comparison.

[Homestar]

34 minutes ago, LiquidSky said:

I'm a little more concerned that the average pcsm of a pilot select Cadet is down 14 points, GPA down 0.13, Pfa by 1.5. .

Shoot, I had a single digit PCSM and am pretty sure my PT score is 10 points better now than 15 years ago. 

[gearhog]

8 hours ago, DosXX said:

643 pilot selects from ROTC this year vs. 345 two years ago... any idea how they plan to push this many pilots through when there is already a massive backlog? Short of cutting down UPT or adding another training base I'm not seeing how this is going to be possible.

You're probably right. Not possible. 

As LiquidSky said, the Air Force is trying to their hooks into as many young people interested in flying as possible. They'll create a large pool of casual status lieutenants who will be doing busy work until the ideas proposed for ramping up production are implemented. 

Air Force assumptions: Production capacity isn't going to decline further in the near term. Pilot production ideas proposed by AETC will be funded and implemented quickly.  Those ideas will work effectively once implemented. Casual status lieutenants are willing to wait possibly years for a training slot, and are willing to incur another 10 year commitment once winged.

As is demonstrated again and again throughout the "pilot crisis" slides and memos: People are merely resources. They're going to stockpile these resources on the front end and treat them as though they do not have a shelf life.

Edited February 19, 2018 by torqued

[norskman]

On 2/17/2018 at 11:13 AM, Hodor said:

The CSAR/Helo numbers look good now, but there are a huge number of guys getting out now at the end of their ADSCs or 100% set on doing it. Many are leaving to do jobs totally not flying related. A few are using the Rotary to Airline route, but they're older dudes that had 20 years in already. 

I can't begin to imagine what will happen when the contractors totally take over SUPT-H. Without having USAF dudes there to balance out the old contractors its gunna get weird. UPT by just sim instructors. 

 

Upping the flow of new dudes is going to do F all. We can't even train the Co-pilots we get now. Moody is a great case study. Brand new Lts are getting 45-60 hrs a year, getting passed around to guard units for any experience they can scrape up, or deploying with other RQS's.  Have you ever seen a bitter Lt? Its like the Ghost of Christmas Future. The iron to fly them isnt there. More importantly the SMAs aren't there. Their retention is a whole other topic. 

This, dude totally agree. 3 class A mishaps in the last four years. 2 being CFITs. Basic airmanship is lacking. Not going to get better any time soon. It doesn’t help when we think a flight lead is super experienced when he has a whopping 500 total hours and throw him in  the IPUG syllabus only becuase he’s next in line. 

Contract only UPT will only continue to inflict pain on the ops squadrons. Basic Instrument proficiency will suck without T-6 interface. Cross flow opportunities for the new pups from the proposed syllabus will dwindle. I fear for the road ahead. Where’s some good news for the USAF RW community?

[Azimuth]

11 hours ago, Homestar said:

Shoot, I had a single digit PCSM and am pretty sure my PT score is 10 points better now than 15 years ago. 

I'm sure it is too with that sliding age scale.

[FUSEPLUG]

14 hours ago, LiquidSky said:

I'm a little more concerned that the average pcsm of a pilot select Cadet is down 14 points, GPA down 0.13, Pfa by 1.5. CSOs are down by similar numbers as well. Do y'all think that there will be a noticeable difference in quality of the average stud? Or a higher washout rate as a result? Obviously these #s aren't the best metric in the world to predict flying ability but I would expect to see some future correlation.

My biggest concern is that these "lower quality studs" will be my FO in a 737 in about 12 years (or less when the next VSP happens).

Edited February 19, 2018 by FUSEPLUG
Edited for clarification

[precontact]

Fuse...you need to update your profile pic...that's not 737 landing gear!

[FUSEPLUG]

13 minutes ago, precontact said:

Fuse...you need to update your profile pic...that's not 737 landing gear!

As soon as I blow some tires on the 73 I’ll post it... pending the NTSB investigation.