Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

[Bergman]

On 2/17/2018 at 10:04 PM, Clark Griswold said:

This made my day.  So true.  Big Blue is so fucked and 99% of the O-6s and above don't give even the slightest shit.

Run fellas.  Fucking run!

[Bergman]

On 2/18/2018 at 7:04 AM, di1630 said:

Most of the guys I looked up to for their skill, attitude and bromanship are out altogether or in the guard/reserves.

No, they are all airline captains.

 

[drumkitwes]

On 2/18/2018 at 9:12 PM, LiquidSky said:

By burying their heads in the sand and pretending there isn't a problem? Don't have to fix what you don't admit is broken. You already have some LTs from rotc waiting for nearly a year to enter active duty or spending a ridiculous amount of time on casual status. We have some of the highest paid gate guards, bus drivers, marshalers that can't marshal,  etc. as a result of casual.

 I'm a little more concerned that the average pcsm of a pilot select Cadet is down 14 points, GPA down 0.13, Pfa by 1.5. CSOs are down by similar numbers as well. Do y'all think that there will be a noticeable difference in quality of the average stud? Or a higher washout rate as a result? Obviously these #s aren't the best metric in the world to predict flying ability but I would expect to see some future correlation.

IIRC, PCSM is the only indicator which had a correlation to success in UPT. GPA can vary widely from university and program. 

[Majestik Møøse]

52 PCSM. Fucking great. Somebody send this shit to the HASC/SASC and let them know this is the AF’s plan because they refuse to spend a few pennies on bonuses. “We need a $69B white jet to train UPT studs with radars and datalinks. Also, the studs will be mildly retarded.”

[MooseAg03]

52 PCSM. ing great. Somebody send this shit to the HASC/SASC and let them know this is the AF’s plan because they refuse to spend a few pennies on bonuses. “We need a $69B white jet to train UPT studs with radars and datalinks. Also, the studs will be mildly retarded.”

This was my thought as well, my PCSM was a 91 and my AFOQT were fairly high as well. The officer recruiter initially told me I wasn’t competitive because I didn’t have 200+ hours and all of my civilian ratings. I always felt lucky to be selected during a competitive time, but damn that seems like dropping the bar pretty far.

[Siegzy]

C

15 minutes ago, MooseAg03 said:

 that seems like dropping the bar pretty far.

Three dudes I know got pilot slots with <20 PCSM scores this go round. I don't think it's even a factor in selection at this point.

[xaarman]

I had a 55 PCSM and a 2.7 GPA when I got my slot in 2005 with ROTC. No idea how I got a pilot slot, to be quite honest. 

 

Edit: had like 12 flight hours, and took the AFOQT blindly because the cadre was like “hey you need to take this” with like a weeks heads up

Edited February 20, 2018 by xaarman

[ayz33]

As someone without a pilot slot yet, what should all of this mean to me? I am already trying to g/r rather than AD. I know it seems no time is better than now and as someone with enlisted experience i'm not sure what to make of all of this for someone in this position. It almost looks like a pilot is guaranteed at this point with good scores and commander ranking

[Crosswind]

Fella's, 

Let's not act like we're in love with the PCSM.  I took the test twice, got a 60 something the first time then a 90 something the second. Zero flight hours, I just studied "what color taxi lights are" (I think I forgot that one btw - I'm going with green) and other simple questions that require about 10 minutes of exposure to understand right before the test (I think Sheppard Air could ensure all future PCSM == 99 if they made a study guide). I've never asked a Wingman what his PCSM was. No Squadron Commander has ever asked me.  

There was a filthy rumor that the PCSM score nearly measured up with ones chance of graduation UPT (an 85 PCSM == 85% graduation rate).  I later was told that was false, and the Air Force was going to do away with the AFOQT and simply accept SAT/ACT scores. Then someone got promoted and that idea didn't follow through.

Either way, the slides and other data we've seen on this thread over the last week ask one really big question. What will the future of the Air Force look like?

I think the REAL issue no one has addressed ISN'T that there is in fact a pilot shortage, it is specifically where that shortage falls.  So while the Air Force is missing 11F's, are they all missing Captain 11Fs, or are they missing Majors to do staff work?  How does increasing production fix that problem?  Are we going to start sending 2-3 year Captains to the Puzzle Palace, send Wingman to sit in the Map Cell at CENTCOM?  

The scariest thing I saw on these slides was REDUCING the length of first year tours. Let's discuss THAT for a moment. For those of you who did a Korea tour straight out of FTU, and maybe extended, imagine if your next assignment was anything other than in the Viper and if you NEVER got back into a tactical cockpit. What value are you at A8, A4, or any other office?

What a colossal waste of investment. Who get's picked to get cut short? The strong or weak swimmers? Do we even know who is which by that point in their careers? Many of pilots struggle as Wingman but grow as flight leads, many sharp wingman lose focus later on and become limfacs.

More importantly, why isn't ONE SINGLE bullet point on any of these slides directed at a retention improving measure? 

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, Siegzy said:

C

Three dudes I know got pilot slots with <20 PCSM scores this go round. I don't think it's even a factor in selection at this point.

If these guys bust daily rides/checkrides, the IPs are going to be blamed.  They'll get 88/89 rides and the CC will push them through because he's going to be evaluated on his ability to max produce pilots and send them off to be someone else's problem. Being an IP for during next few years is going to be soul crushing.

ALL the focus going forward will be quantity, not quality.

[MooseAg03]

I remember taking the BATs test which was supposed to judge hand/eye coordination and fine motor skills. There’s a newer version of it, but it’s still the same principle. A mentor when I was applying told me that some people just can’t hack UPT due to their lack of fine motor skills. I’m afraid this shows we will continue to push people through as mentioned above who lack these skills. It’s been said here a lot, but I think it means a lot more jets will be in the dirt over the next few years.

[Duck]

I actually saw the official AFPC slideshow that detailed the correlation between commanders rank, GPA, PCSM and historical success rate at UPT from a %washout perspective. I don’t recall the conclusions for the other factors, but there was a positive correlation between PCSM and washouts.

[BashiChuni]

guys lets be honest does anyone washout of UPT? i think the washout rate has been extremely low for a long time now. lets not act like it was UPT BUDS when we all went thru "back in the day"

[mb1685]

Regarding PCSM and lowering standards, one thing that might be worth mentioning is that the PCSM formula was revised around 2012 or 2013 to weigh flight hours much more heavily. I remember reading about a lot of dudes with 90+ PCSMs and little to no flight time seeing their scores plummet 30+ points once that rolled out. So if you were selected before that, your revised scores actually might be significantly lower now, so it's a murky comparison. That said, those AFROTC select averages are definitely considerably lower than I would have guessed.

Edited February 20, 2018 by mb1685

[Duck]

guys lets be honest does anyone washout of UPT? i think the washout rate has been extremely low for a long time now. lets not act like it was UPT BUDS when we all went thru "back in the day"

That’s a good point. If you set the bar low enough...

[Napoleon_Tanerite]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

guys lets be honest does anyone washout of UPT? i think the washout rate has been extremely low for a long time now. lets not act like it was UPT BUDS when we all went thru "back in the day"

Average of 1 or 2 per year from the T-1 side at CBM.  It happens, but it's rare.  

[Snooter]

On 2/17/2018 at 6:48 PM, VMFA187 said:

I need to know this as well.

3...

[MooseAg03]

We lost 5 out of 26 in T-6s and another in T-1s. There were also 2 who washed out of my IFS class. When the Air Force upholds standards, people do wash out. Now they are only interested in production so good enough is ok. Why do you think IFS morphed back into IFT?

[MooseAg03]

Regarding PCSM and lowering standards, one thing that might be worth mentioning is that the PCSM formula was revised around 2012 or 2013 to weigh flight hours much more heavily. I remember reading about a lot of dudes with 90+ PCSMs and little to no flight time seeing their scores plummet 30+ points once that rolled out. So if you were selected before that, your revised scores actually might be significantly lower now, so it's a murky comparison. That said, those AFROTC select averages are definitely considerably lower than I would have guessed.

This actually makes me feel much better since the average would be more like a historical mid 80s.

[Majestik Møøse]

8 hours ago, Crosswind said:

Let's not act like we're in love with the PCSM.  I took the test twice, got a 60 something the first time then a 90 something the second. Zero flight hours, I just studied "what color taxi lights are" (I think I forgot that one btw - I'm going with green) and other simple questions that require about 10 minutes of exposure to understand right before the test (I think Sheppard Air could ensure all future PCSM == 99 if they made a study guide). I've never asked a Wingman what his PCSM was. No Squadron Commander has ever asked me.

All valid, but the AF still believes in the PCSM, and they’re giving pilot jobs to people with scores that are at least 10% lower than last year and possibly 40% lower (depending on how the score was reworked) than ten years ago. So our plan is to replace CMR instructors with a bunch of inexperienced useless new guys that are measurably dumber by the USAF’s own expensively-determined scoring system.

Edit: also, to continue my recurring theme of the stupidity of not paying a pilot bonus closer to market rates, the UPT training costs alone for those 400 extra bottom-dwelling pilot candidates will be more than the yearly costs of a $100k bonus for all the experienced eligibles. And they haven’t even been to FTU yet.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Majestik Møøse

[gearhog]

The AETC slides seem so bizarrely ignorant that I think something must be missing. Consider: the slides are from AETC and they most likely would not detail retention initiatives. Those slides exist elsewhere. Quality of life and financial incentives are likely being addressed by different organizations, and they may be separately trying to solve the crisis entirely, as AETC looks to be doing.

I believe bonuses are in the works: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2019/fy2019_m1.pdf

FY 2018 Air Force Officer Incentive pay budget: $236,704,000

FY 2019 AIr Force Officer Incentive pay budget: $284,437,000 (proposed)

$47,000,000 (20%) increase for all officers, not just pilots. In FY 2017 there were 574 CAF and MAF bonus eligible pilots ($80K per year each?) I don't know what the pilot bonus target take rate is ( I would think 100% at this point) or how the extra money would be allocated among officers. Would a 20% increase in pilot bonus be enough?

Defense Budget Approximate Approval Timeline:

February 12, 2018 – DoD Releases Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Proposal

Spring/Summer 2018 – Congressional committees submit “views and estimates” of spending and revenues.

Summer/Fall 2018 – House & Senate Armed Appropriations Committees work on the FY2019 defense bill.

Summer/Fall 2018 – House of Representatives and Senate pass their versions of the defense bill and negotiate differences.

November/December 2018 – The House of Representatives and Senate pass the final version of the defense bill.

December 2018 – The defense bill is signed into law

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by torqued

[i.o.w.a]

35 minutes ago, torqued said:

I believe bonuses are in the works: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2019/fy2019_m1.pdf

FY 2018 Air Force Officer Incentive pay budget: $236,704,000

FY 2019 AIr Force Officer Incentive pay budget: $284,437,000 (proposed)

Only speculation, but that could also be the money needed for the new BRS Continuation Pay bonus they are handing out. Like you said, that proposed incentive pay is all Air Force officers.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

[ClearedHot]

On 2/15/2018 at 9:36 PM, Breckey said:

@ClearedHot do you have anything on the contract UHT plan?

As Requested.

 

Tab 3 - UPT-H Requirements Survey.docx

Tab 2 - Appendix A-2 UPT-H Course Training Standards.docx

Tab 1 - DRAFT UPT-H CONOP.docx

 

[Hodor]

So... to "save" 50 slots a year for guys who want fixed wing they are going to spend millions of dollars to stand up a totally new training program, find a contractor (Probably DOSS), and pump an extra 15-20 new LTs a year into the pipeline. Okay sure, why not? There are some ways they can salvage this to make good Helo pilots.

If this was out in the South West or Rockies, the High/Hot exposure could make up for it, but getting real IFR time would be rough. You could put it at Kirtland to save the cost of moving guys across the country, and ABQ isn't terrible. Beats Enid for sure, and opens up some nice IP slots for the like 6-9 USAF dudes running this thing. Forget the fact that you're closing the 23d down and finding somewhere to put 20 or some odd guys that probably chose to go there for good reasons like 60 guys that are smoked from Ops, Huey peeps that need a couple years to thaw out. The type rating is kinda nice. It would have been cool to get a Bell 212 rating out of Rucker for all the TH-1 hours. 

Downsides I can think of include shutting down Rucker for the reason above plus it's already there, churning out pilots at an awesome rate and is a great program. The first time guys get a 100% blue experience will be at the 512th, which already has trouble producing a qualified student that the line units can use. So that'll increase that strain, maybe it'll be better with new helos. Choosing a Huey as the other type rating is sort of short sighted, since it's set up to be replaced as this comes online. I can't really formulate an objective reason but I feel like this is just going to turn into a year at Doss for the studs going through this. 

Having said all that I'd totally apply to instruct if it's in a cool place and doesnt pay poorly. This is gunna be in Pecos, TX though, run by out of touch contractors doing exactly what Uncle Sugar tells them to do, nothing more. 

[SCRIMP]

So... to "save" 50 slots a year for guys who want fixed wing they are going to spend millions of dollars to stand up a totally new training program, find a contractor (Probably DOSS), and pump an extra 15-20 new LTs a year into the pipeline. Okay sure, why not? There are some ways they can salvage this to make good Helo pilots.

If this was out in the South West or Rockies, the High/Hot exposure could make up for it, but getting real IFR time would be rough. You could put it at Kirtland to save the cost of moving guys across the country, and ABQ isn't terrible. Beats Enid for sure, and opens up some nice IP slots for the like 6-9 USAF dudes running this thing. Forget the fact that you're closing the 23d down and finding somewhere to put 20 or some odd guys that probably chose to go there for good reasons like 60 guys that are smoked from Ops, Huey peeps that need a couple years to thaw out. The type rating is kinda nice. It would have been cool to get a Bell 212 rating out of Rucker for all the TH-1 hours. 

Downsides I can think of include shutting down Rucker for the reason above plus it's already there, churning out pilots at an awesome rate and is a great program. The first time guys get a 100% blue experience will be at the 512th, which already has trouble producing a qualified student that the line units can use. So that'll increase that strain, maybe it'll be better with new helos. Choosing a Huey as the other type rating is sort of short sighted, since it's set up to be replaced as this comes online. I can't really formulate an objective reason but I feel like this is just going to turn into a year at Doss for the studs going through this. 

Having said all that I'd totally apply to instruct if it's in a cool place and doesnt pay poorly. This is gunna be in Pecos, TX though, run by out of touch contractors doing exactly what Uncle Sugar tells them to do, nothing more. 

They could also just stop making helicopter pilots. Can the W buy, turn all SMAs into sensor operators, etc and all the pilots go fly the new AT-6, etc since we have been qualified on same or like aircraft. Solves the AF’s lack of give a shit.

 

UHT is a joke and should be aborted. Quickly. The again, I’m getting out...who knows, maybe I will find a financial backer and make a bid myself. I’m gunna be Oprah rich!!

 

CH, thanks for the updates!