Japan to Front Cost for F-22 Restart?

[Kiloalpha]

Just saw this. Implications could be huge, if Japan is willing to pay the tooling/restart cost for an F-22A while we bring online an upgraded F-22 as a result. The question is, will Congress/CSAF/DoD ever be able to tear their eyes away from the F-35 to seize the opportunity?

Lockheed Should Restart the Raptor Line If Japan Wants An F-22-F-35 Hybrid

Geopolitical trends, security concerns, and industrial and combat aircraft capability needs, could give birth to an American-Japanese Raptor 2.0.

By Tyler Rogoway

 

Osakabe Yasuo

Reuters has published a report that came as little surprise to us at The War Zone regarding Tokyo's interest in having Japanese industry work with Lockheed Martin to develop a semi-indigenous fighter that combines the best attributes of the F-35 Lightning and F-22 Raptor. 

The Reuters report states in part:

"Lockheed has discussed the idea with Japanese defense ministry officials and will make a formal proposal in response to a Japanese request for information (RFI) after it receives permission from the U.S. government to offer the sensitive military technology, said the sources, who have direct knowledge of the proposal.

The decision on whether to release parts of the highly classified aircraft designs and software to help Japan stay ahead of Chinese advances will test President Donald Trump’s promise to overhaul his country’s arms export policy.

The proposed aircraft “would combine the F-22 and F-35 and could be superior to both of them,” said one of the sources."

USAF

Although Japan has put forward notional Raptor-like designs, what they could also be talking about here is merging the higher kinematic performance and low-observability of the F-22 with the F-35's smarter attributes—including updated avionics, mission computers, and sensors—as well as new lower-maintenance skin coatings. We at The War Zone have posited exactly this, writing the following in a 2016 article dubbed 'Just Allow The F-22 To Be Exported To Japan Already':

"Japan always wanted the F-22—badly. But nearly two decades ago, congress barred the super-fighter from being exported to anyone, including America’s closest allies. This act slashed Japan’s F-22 dreams, although they kept asking.

Times have changed, and with Japan facing down a drastically more aggressive and advanced Chinese military—one that has territorial ambitions in direct conflict with Japan’s own claims. The tension has manifested in the air-to-air realm, with Japan intercepted a whopping 199 Chinese aircraft between April and June of this year, and those intercepts are getting more aggressive.

Combined with threats from North Korea, this new reality has been taken very seriously by Japan, which has put in place aggressive initiatives to upgrade existing fighter aircraft and acquire new ones with greatly enhanced lethality.

The F-22’s technologies are also no longer experimental. In fact, they are decades old. In many ways, the exportable F-35 is more technologically advanced than the F-22. At this point, the export ban on the F-22 is more of a protectionist tool to bolster the F-35’s production numbers than a national security play.

But now a $40 billion tender is being put forward by Japan to indigenously develop or import a new super fighter design. Although Mitsubishi’s X-2 technology demonstrator has just taken flight, it is just that: a technology demonstrator. Despite inaccurate press reports that the X-2 is a prototype, there's is no guarantee it will make it into production in the coming decade. Think of it more as a Bird Of Prey than a YF-22.

The USAF is finally looking at restarting the Raptor production line, but the chances of that happening are almost nil, because doing so would directly challenge the F-35 program. And although the F-22 is the only existing fighter that can actually fulfill Japan’s $40 billion tender, it will likely be shot down by Lockheed, the USAF and congress. Meanwhile, Japan is already an F-35 customer, with 42 of the jets on order.

This sounds crazy but there may be an opportunity here for Japan to foot the cost of restarting F-22 production, which is supposedly the major barrier keeping the USAF from buying more Raptors. However, the reality is that a dollar spent on a new F-22 is a dollar taken away from producing more F-35s. So although the increasingly positive platitudes from high-up USAF officials have hinted that they would love to have more F-22s, the abstract effects of doing so are politically unpalatable.

Anything to protect the F-35—and I mean anything.

So what we will probably end up with is a situation where a major US defense aerospace prime contractor, let’s say Lockheed Martin, works with Japan’s Iron Triangle supported defense industrial base to build, well, pretty much an F-22, although not an exact copy. This will come at far higher cost than just restarting the line, but doing so will not endanger the F-35’s budgetary supremacy within the USAF and the Pentagon as a whole.

This has actually been done before to a certain extent, see the Mitsubishi-Lockheed F-2, Japan’s semi-indigenous F-16. These jets, of which Japan bought a similar number of around 100, ended up costing well over $100 million each when they could have just bought advanced block F-16s for a third of that price and left comparatively little capability on the table.

It all sounds pretty stupid, doesn’t it? Here there is a real opportunity to get the F-22 back in production and likely in an upgraded fashion with more advanced and serviceable avionics and other components, potentially all on Japan’s dime. The USAF could piggyback the JASDF order and bolster its fleet of just 183 F-22s (of which only about 125 are combat coded at any given time) for largely the unit cost alone. But this super-logical offering will likely never happen, because nothing can endanger the F-35, both from a manufacturer’s point of view and Washington’s.

Japan is slated to make its “F-3” fighter choice in the summer of 2018 so there is still a couple of years for Washington to come to its senses and make an about-face on its F-22 embargo, although I wouldn't hold my breath."

Fast forward a couple years and the F-35 program has progressed past the point of no return and President Trump is looking at pretty much any opportunity it can to boost sales of weapons to allied nations. With this in mind, the chances of such an initiative actually happening have increased dramatically. The biggest question is does Japan have the financial capacity to take down such an expensive project, especially considering other new competing priorities. These include everything from acquiring a cruise missile, to setting up Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense batteries, to fielding F-35Bs on its helicopter carriers. 

The $366M Mitsubishi X-2 technology demonstrator took its final flight last year after a relatively short life. Apparently, technical difficulties impacted the program and it was clear that Japan would need a deep foreign partnership in order to field a stealth fighter that could also benefit Japanese industry:

 

What's also new is that the USAF has completed a study that looked into what it would cost to put an updated F-22 back into production. The basic findings were:

-Approximately $50 billion to procure 194 additional F-22s 

-The total includes an estimate of approximately $7 billion to $10 billion for non-recurring start-up costs and $40.4 billion for aircraft procurement costs

-An estimated cost of $206 million to $216 million per aircraft (the last F-22 produced had a unit cost of $137 million)

That cost may be too high for the USAF to stomach, but for Japan, it's highly unlikely they will be able to field something superior to an updated F-22 for anywhere near less. It's also likely that once the U.S.-specific politics of putting the Raptor back into production are removed from the equation, the cost of doing so would drop. 

Lockheed Martin

Lockheed just rolled-out Japan's first of 40 F-35s on order.

But if Japan is willing to buy an updated Raptor instead of developing a near identical but still unique design, clearly doing so would present a mutually beneficial opportunity. If the U.S. would become a minority stakeholder in an F-22 production line restart of sorts, with the intent on buying a number of airframes to bolster the USAF's undersized and cherished F-22 fleet, then the opportunity could work out for both parties. 

Once again, the F-35 lobby will be strongly against such a move even though the F-35's future is now assured. Any fighter dollar given to another program is one less spent on it, but the possibility that the USAF could acquire a Raptor 2.0 of sorts without bearing the vast majority of the non-recurring restart and development costs is an incredible proposition. If Japan is looking to buy a couple hundred fighters and the U.S. was to add onto that order, the unit cost for each jet would plummet as well.

As for Japan, it would benefit by realizing lowered unit costs, technology transfer, and also by being a key supplier for certain components of the jets built for both Japan and the United States. The potential to export the jet could also be an added benefit, but this would likely be curtailed by the U.S. in order to protect F-35 sales abroad. But above all else, Japan will be able to lower its risk substantially by buying into an existing and proven airframe, improving upon it, and will benefit from the full backing of the U.S. government and industry in doing so.

USAF

Don't think for a second that Japan is not willing to pay through the nose for a semi-indigenous modified fighter design with deep industry offsets. The F-2 ended up costing nearly the price of an F-35A today, and even then its radar proved to be highly problematic. Japan could have bought late-block F-16s for nearly a third of the price of each F-2 while realizing only minimal negative impacts in terms of some capabilities.

Also, keep in mind Donald Trump's extremely close relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Approving Japan to get 'the very best' while also lining the pockets of big defense contractors seems like a very attractive proposition for Donald Trump. And it seems pretty clear that when it comes to weapons export to Japan, Trump is willing and ready to give Abe what he wants.

We will watch how this story develops closely, but if the Pentagon was smart, they would embrace an upgraded F-22 restart with Japan, and if Tokyo is willing to foot the majority of the bill for doing so, the USAF would be nuts not to take advantage of it.

[Clark Griswold]

Not a bad outside of the container idea but as the author states the F-35 mafia is strong and the MIC is not interested in Raptor restart to compete with F-35 procurement so go take an alternate route and let Japan buy the YF-23 design and test data and develop a Japanese Black Widow.  

We've offered to other allies planes (copyright and design) for ones we didn't buy (ref F-20 offered to India & Taiwan), offer the YF-23 with a partnership in development with NG and spruce up our fighter industrial base by getting work and recent design/production experience so Lockmart and Big B aren't the only games in town.

[Kiloalpha]

Good point, that’s a viable option as well. Personally I’d love to see a Black Widow flying under an allied banner, but the bill for getting that up and running will probably be a lot higher than simply pulling the F-22 tooling out of storage and getting suppliers lined up. Wonder how much T&E would have to be done to make the F-23 a reality in 2020?

What sucks is that we’re basically going to handicap ourselves waiting for the NGAD... instead of seizing the opportunity to buy a 5.5 gen Raptor off the backs of the Japanese. All because of the JSF and the MIC. Sounds like it could be a repeat of the Marines not getting in on the Rhino buy, because the JSF was supposed to be coming.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Kiloalpha

[Blue]

Always did wonder--what was it about the F-2 that made it so damn expensive?  

 

11 hours ago, Kiloalpha said:

Don't think for a second that Japan is not willing to pay through the nose for a semi-indigenous modified fighter design with deep industry offsets. The F-2 ended up costing nearly the price of an F-35A today, and even then its radar proved to be highly problematic. Japan could have bought late-block F-16s for nearly a third of the price of each F-2 while realizing only minimal negative impacts in terms of some capabilities.

 

[PilotPitts]

Good point, that’s a viable option as well. Personally I’d love to see a Black Widow flying under an allied banner, but the bill for getting that up and running will probably be a lot higher than simply pulling the F-22 tooling out of storage and getting suppliers lined up. Wonder how much T&E would have to be done to make the F-23 a reality in 2020?
What sucks is that we’re basically going to handicap ourselves waiting for the NGAD... instead of seizing the opportunity to buy a 5.5 gen Raptor off the backs of the Japanese. All because of the JSF and the MIC. Sounds like it could be a repeat of the Marines not getting in on the Rhino buy, because the JSF was supposed to be coming.

I’d say the ability to do enough test on the YF-23 to produce any useable envelope by 2020 would be nil. You’d have to retool, build several test assets and put multi-thousands of test hours in. The test requirement creep of these programs makes it wicked hard to do anything in a reasonable amount of time these days.

[Clark Griswold]

4 hours ago, Kiloalpha said:

Good point, that’s a viable option as well. Personally I’d love to see a Black Widow flying under an allied banner, but the bill for getting that up and running will probably be a lot higher than simply pulling the F-22 tooling out of storage and getting suppliers lined up. Wonder how much T&E would have to be done to make the F-23 a reality in 2020?

What sucks is that we’re basically going to handicap ourselves waiting for the NGAD... instead of seizing the opportunity to buy a 5.5 gen Raptor off the backs of the Japanese. All because of the JSF and the MIC. Sounds like it could be a repeat of the Marines not getting in on the Rhino buy, because the JSF was supposed to be coming.

 

1 hour ago, PilotPitts said:

I’d say the ability to do enough test on the YF-23 to produce any useable envelope by 2020 would be nil. You’d have to retool, build several test assets and put multi-thousands of test hours in. The test requirement creep of these programs makes it wicked hard to do anything in a reasonable amount of time these days.

It's probably a bridge way too far  (YF-23 restart/test/development and eventually F-23 production under a Japanese partnership) but apart from continuing to pile all the chips on the F-35 bet, the West / Allies have to start something new for an LO alternative to the F-35.  

Not bashing the 35 but competition keeps the animals nimble and quick, monopoly not so much.

No argument on requirement creep (test or operational) bogging down the whole effort but in my estimation the Japanese want the F-22 for mainly air superiority, is it possible to state in the requirements air superiority initially with the ability to be expanded later to air to mud, electronic attack, etc...?  The software will be built to accept updates without having to re-engineer the basic software engine, the physical platform designed with X % of space / weight / electrical generation / environmental control / etc... reserved for additions... a modular design as opposed to an integrated design.  Methinks this would cut the development time and lower initial risk for development.

[brabus]

the West / Allies have to start something new for an LO alternative to the F-35.  

Already done...6th gen; it would be ridiculous at this point to create another 5th gen fighter.  Now finding a way to re-open the Raptor line and produce more of those, abso-fucking-lutely!  We need more, and if Japan will pay, then go ahead and let them have some Raptors.

[Clark Griswold]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

Already done...6th gen; it would be ridiculous at this point to create another 5th gen fighter.  Now finding a way to re-open the Raptor line and produce more of those, abso-fucking-lutely!  We need more, and if Japan will pay, then go ahead and let them have some Raptors.

Valid point(s).  If the Japanese are willing to slide 40 billion bucks across the table to make this happen, let's not get in their way.  Assuming they would buy in volume (replacing their 15 & 4 fleet with 22s).

My argument for the 23 is that it attracts a different constituency to argue for it versus Lockmart, while it may seem counter-intuitive from Lockmart's perspective a Raptor restart is more detrimental to their effort to get the way bigger job underway, 35 development/delivery.  It would also light a fire under them to get the cost down and quicker if there was a real 5th gen alternative to the 35.

 

[Kiloalpha]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

Already done...6th gen; it would be ridiculous at this point to create another 5th gen fighter.  Now finding a way to re-open the Raptor line and produce more of those, abso-fucking-lutely!  We need more, and if Japan will pay, then go ahead and let them have some Raptors.

Agree wholeheartedly. Although, I have a suspicion that the 6th gen F-X winner will just copy what LockMart has done with the JSF. So much money and influence at stake, why wouldn't they market it similarly or at least plant seeds in every state and across the world to guarantee revenue? The days of "____ platform was designed, tested and fielded in 200 days" is long gone. The military industrial complex might as well be congress. Slow, controlled by money/power... but occasionally create some things that we all like and agree with.

9 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Valid point(s).  If the Japanese are willing to slide 40 billion bucks across the table to make this happen, let's not get in their way.  Assuming they would buy in volume (replacing their 15 & 4 fleet with 22s).

My argument for the 23 is that it attracts a different constituency to argue for it versus Lockmart, while it may seem counter-intuitive from Lockmart's perspective a Raptor restart is more detrimental to their effort to get the way bigger job underway, 35 development/delivery.  It would also light a fire under them to get the cost down and quicker if there was a real 5th gen alternative to the 35.

Glad to know that you're a capitalist, Clark. Here's a question that is interesting to think about... To what degree does the US DoD own the plans/rights to its own material? I ask, because imagine this scenario for a second:

Trump/Abe agree to a deal based on the speculation in the article (Japan funding the startup). Trump tells Lockheed they need to either make space to create the new Raptor, or start a whole new manufacturing plan to find capacity. LockMart says they can't do either because they're focused on the JSF, and it would take too long (in Trump/Abe's opinion) to make that space available. So... Trump gives the F-22's plans to Boeing and tells them to get cracking. Lockheed wins somewhat (but also loses, admittedly), because they still get to supply parts/materials for the project and keep the JSF on time/plan. Boeing wins because they're back in the game, and they have the manufacturing slack available to take the project.

I only ask, because I know in the past the DoD has "taken ownership" of plans/licensing. The M4 is a recent example, where they moved the production from Colt to FN Herstal once the licensing expired. Not sure how that works for aircraft.

[brabus]

Quote

It would also light a fire under them to get the cost down and quicker if there was a real 5th gen alternative to the 35.

I would enjoy seeing Lockmart get kicked in the junk, but starting another 5th gen asset to counter Lockmart's product would still be an incredible waste of resources at this point.  Their competitors are better off focusing on how to win the 6th gen contract.

Quote

I have a suspicion that the 6th gen F-X winner will just copy what LockMart has done with the JSF. So much money and influence at stake, why wouldn't they market it similarly or at least plant seeds in every state and across the world to guarantee revenue? The days of "____ platform was designed, tested and fielded in 200 days" is long gone. The military industrial complex might as well be congress. Slow, controlled by money/power... but occasionally create some things that we all like and agree with.

Shack.

Edited April 22, 2018 by brabus

[Clark Griswold]

13 hours ago, Kiloalpha said:

Glad to know that you're a capitalist, Clark. Here's a question that is interesting to think about... To what degree does the US DoD own the plans/rights to its own material? I ask, because imagine this scenario for a second:

Trump/Abe agree to a deal based on the speculation in the article (Japan funding the startup). Trump tells Lockheed they need to either make space to create the new Raptor, or start a whole new manufacturing plan to find capacity. LockMart says they can't do either because they're focused on the JSF, and it would take too long (in Trump/Abe's opinion) to make that space available. So... Trump gives the F-22's plans to Boeing and tells them to get cracking. Lockheed wins somewhat (but also loses, admittedly), because they still get to supply parts/materials for the project and keep the JSF on time/plan. Boeing wins because they're back in the game, and they have the manufacturing slack available to take the project.

I only ask, because I know in the past the DoD has "taken ownership" of plans/licensing. The M4 is a recent example, where they moved the production from Colt to FN Herstal once the licensing expired. Not sure how that works for aircraft.

Not sure and quick Google-Fu pass revealed nothing up front to that question but I would imagine that the USG holds the right to license production / export of technology.  We (USG) were the sole customer and likely will be the Sun around which they orbit from now until forever, if it really started to happen they would get with the program.

Question for the forum and @brabus specifically, if 6 gen is the new hotness and the operational environment is changing to an extent that 5th Gen is the baseline and to dominate we will need to be above that, wouldn't an incremental change / progress be better / less risky / viable than trying to leap to the next generation?

Not sure where I heard this but a commentator was speaking about the two different acquisition philosophies of the AF and Navy and it seems the Navy's Incremental Improvement Strategy vs. the AF's Aggressive Improvement Strategy, in the long run is more successful (USN strategy), as an 11F do you think that or think the leap to the next level is better?  Big picture for airpower not just to the capabilities of the particular airframe/system.

Nothing passive-aggressive in that question but looking back at the end result of efforts to leap to the next technological generation in some of the AF's big acquisition programs of the last 25 years, we got some great planes but way less of them than we wanted and for way more than we planned to spend in development / procurement in both time & money.

For 5 to 6 generation, it seems an interim stop at "5.5" with an enhanced F-22 or new F-23 is expensive yes but less risk.  Googling it and like 5th Gen, there's not a definitive list of attributes but from what I discern, 6th Gen means:

- more range

- no vertical tails 

- a DE weapon (or ability to have one)

- further signature reduction (particularly IR)

- control of unmanned wingmen 

A tailless FB-22 seems with an update to existing subsystems / features should meet these 

[brabus]

Upgrading current 5th Gen fighters to "5.5 gen" is a different proposal than developing a new 5th gen fighter. I think we should do upgrading as well as continue forward with 6th gen. The reason you can't stop at 5.5 and forgoe 6th gen is because future technology we know we'll be able to make happen in 10-20 yrs isn't stuff we can bet the farm on that it can be simply "bolted onto" an F-35 or F-22. The most likely situation is those technologies will either be completely infeasible to put on a current 5th gen jet, or there will be a reduction in overall capability if put in a 5th gen jet vs. a new 6th gen jet specifically designed for/around those technologies.

[Majestik Møøse]

Nobody’s going to build a F-23. Ever. Stop wishing.

[Clark Griswold]

5 hours ago, brabus said:

Upgrading current 5th Gen fighters to "5.5 gen" is a different proposal than developing a new 5th gen fighter. I think we should do upgrading as well as continue forward with 6th gen. The reason you can't stop at 5.5 and forgoe 6th gen is because future technology we know we'll be able to make happen in 10-20 yrs isn't stuff we can bet the farm on that it can be simply "bolted onto" an F-35 or F-22. The most likely situation is those technologies will either be completely infeasible to put on a current 5th gen jet, or there will be a reduction in overall capability if put in a 5th gen jet vs. a new 6th gen jet specifically designed for/around those technologies.

Copy, I wouldn't stop at 5+ or 5.5 (upgrading or developing) but try to develop simultaneously with 6, this is of course happening with all the other acquisitions so that's no big deal, not at all... /s.

Now with other people's money... there is a possibility...

1 hour ago, Majestik Møøse said:

Nobody’s going to build a F-23. Ever. Stop wishing.

Not wishing, suggesting and not holding my breath either.

 

All of this (asking for access to US technology and being told no) should lead the financially, technologically and industrially capable Allied nations to come together to burden share & develop jointly but we all know how that works. 

Still, variety is the spice of life and seeing some other 5th Gens out there is a risk I hope they (Japanese, Indians, Euros, Israelis, etc...) consider taking...

 

[YoungnDumb]

At the amount we buy fighters 6th gen will only be 15-20 jets but the program will be in the trillions.

[Clayton Bigsby]

Talking about capacities...you do know LM builds/built the -22s and -35s at different locations, right?  F-22s in Marrieta GA, F-35s in Ft Worth.  Not sure capacity is an issue.