FY 18 ACP take rate?

[Merle Dixon]

I’m a reservist and I don’t know where to look... What was the FY 2018 Aviator Continuation Pay (pilot bonus) take rate? Is the take rate broken down by MAF, CAF, AFSOC, etc?

Thanks,

Merle

[Guest]

I’m a reservist and I don’t know where to look... What was the FY 2018 Aviator Continuation Pay (pilot bonus) take rate? Is the take rate broken down by MAF, CAF, AFSOC, etc?
Thanks,
Merle

I checked a week or two ago and it wasn’t released yet. It’ll be on RAW on afpc secure. Not sure if reservists have access.


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[BADFNZ]

[war007afa]

Less than 30%. Source: A1 community message sent out to leadership in my neck of the woods. 

[MooseClub]

2 hours ago, war007afa said:

Less than 30%. Source: A1 community message sent out to leadership in my neck of the woods. 

Wow. They historically plan for what, 60-65%?  

[ThreeHoler]

Less than 30%. Source: A1 community message sent out to leadership in my neck of the woods. 

Does that include all the second eligible people? Or is that just the initial eligible pilot take rate?

[pawnman]

5 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

Does that include all the second eligible people? Or is that just the initial eligible pilot take rate?

 

Gotta be initial eligible pilots.  Take rate among B-1 WSOs was pretty high, based on anecdotal evidence in my wing.

[Gazmo]

I was told by a management pilot at a legacy airline recently that the USAF is briefing the airlines that they are 2,000 pilots short now.

[BashiChuni]

I get irritated when I hear the Air Force talk to the airlines about a problem big blue created

[snoopyeast]

This is a ploy somehow for the AF to get more money for something. 

Present a self induced crisis to Congress and say the solution is more funding.

[sixpack]

1 hour ago, snoopyeast said:

This is a ploy somehow for the AF to get more money for something. 

Present a self induced crisis to Congress and say the solution is more funding.

Yet however the FY19 AvB is still MIA.  You'd think if they were hurting for people that would be priority #1 to retain some pilots at this point. 

 

[Guest]

Yet however the FY19 AvB is still MIA.  You'd think if they were hurting for people that would be priority #1 to retain some pilots at this point. 
 

NDAA for 19 already passed and AvB is still capped at 35k.


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[raimius]

2 hours ago, sixpack said:

Yet however the FY19 AvB is still MIA.  You'd think if they were hurting for people that would be priority #1 to retain some pilots at this point. 

 

AF decided to just make more LTs to replace the Majors leaving.  Who needs experience when you can just make more copilot's/wingmen? /Sarcasm

[sixpack]

2 hours ago, ihtfp06 said:

 

NDAA for 19 already passed and AvB is still capped at 35k.


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You know the contract lengths they went for this time?

 

[Hunter Rose]

The annual Rated Retention Report comes out after December usually.  It will have the take rates as well as all the stats and comparison to last year broken out by rated crew position and aircraft type.  Don't expect official take rate numbers until this report is released.  As mentioned, it is found under RAW on AFPC Secure links.

It will be an abysmal report.  For pilots, the FY18 total net loss was almost double the net loss in FY17 .  You can get that number by looking at the monthly rated manning statistics in RAW and comparing it to the FY17 annual retention report in RAW.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Hunter Rose

[TnkrToad]

12 hours ago, Hunter Rose said:

The annual Rated Retention Report comes out after December usually.  It will have the take rates as well as all the stats and comparison to last year broken out by rated crew position and aircraft type.  Don't expect official take rate numbers until this report is released.  As mentioned, it is found under RAW on AFPC Secure links.

It will be an abysmal report.  For pilots, the FY18 total net loss was almost double the net loss in FY17 .  You can get that number by looking at the monthly rated manning statistics in RAW and comparing it to the FY17 annual retention report in RAW.

To pile on, the net loss of pilots is only part of the story. In my mind, the even graver issue is the hemorrhaging of highly experienced pilots--which has been ongoing for some time now.

A reasonable proxy for experience is looking at how many Command Pilots and Master Navs the AF has; after all, it ain't that hard to reach that milestone, if one has even a remotely ops-credible flying career and bothers to stay in until the min 15 yrs of rated service. 

Per the data in RAW, we had almost 2,800 Command Pilots at the end of FY08; ten years later, we have barely 2,100. In the same time, the number of Master Navs dropped from 1,300 to less than 600. 

If you go back a little further, in FY04, we had almost 3,700 Command Pilots and 1,900 Master Navs. Clearly, we've had a massive brain drain over the past decade and a half or so. 

So, doing math in public, we have as many as 2,900 Senior Pilots and/or Navs filling command, staff, or Wg/OG flying billets that a decade and a half ago would've been filled by more deeply experienced Command/Master aviators. 

Conclusions?

(1) You shouldn't be surprised by questionable rated management decisions, when AF commanders and their staffs are largely devoid of experience

(2) To the extent that recent mishaps are due to crew inexperience, you can count on things getting even worse. Commanders gotta have their flyers on staffs; units will continue to get robbed of experienced aviators, leaving flying units ever-younger

TT

 

 

[NKAWTG]

The navigator (and FE) career fields have been modernized out of the Air Force.  The C-141 navs were out of job in the transition to C-17s, the KC-135 navs eliminated with the Pacer Craig mod, and now the C-130H navs are unemployed with the J models.  The nav trend is exactly where you should it expect it.   Where did those rated billets go?  I'm assuming RPAs, or just vanished into thin air.  

Once those old school now GS navs at staff retire, where does the next generation come from?  Pilots have way more options than eternal staff as an officer turned GS.  The entire enterprise has trouble competing in the talent marketplace of today.  

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, NKAWTG said:

The navigator (and FE) career fields have been modernized out of the Air Force.  The C-141 navs were out of job in the transition to C-17s, the KC-135 navs eliminated with the Pacer Craig mod, and now the C-130H navs are unemployed with the J models.  The nav trend is exactly where you should it expect it.   Where did those rated billets go?  I'm assuming RPAs, or just vanished into thin air.  

Once those old school now GS navs at staff retire, where does the next generation come from?  Pilots have way more options than eternal staff as an officer turned GS.  The entire enterprise has trouble competing in the talent marketplace of today.  

There's still a few of us left in the B-1, B-52, F-15E, RC-135, and AC-130 (to name a few).

[TnkrToad]

On 11/20/2018 at 4:27 AM, pawnman said:

There's still a few of us left in the B-1, B-52, F-15E, RC-135, and AC-130 (to name a few).

The operative word is "few"--which is the point I was trying to get at.

If pilots are so few/such precious commodities that they can't be let out of the cockpit, and there are too few Navs/CSOs to backfill, from whence will the AF get its current and future ops staff types?

I've generally assumed that RPA pilots would be the next most likely folks to fill the void--at least in the CAF. Weird thing is, talking to a buddy familiar with the RPA world, is that excess RPA FGOs are being told they can't go to staff, due to the rated staff allocation plan--leaving them nowhere to go but back to ops units where they're not needed. 

So best I can tell, staffs are getting shorted, while RPA folks are getting screwed out of staff opportunities that their community can afford to let them go to . . . in order to ensure that 11X & 12X types continue to run ACC. 

Additional conclusions:

- Status quo will continue--pilots and navs will continue to run the service, and RPA drivers will continue to get screwed

- Navs ascendant in ACC?--given that Navs are generally more likely to stay in than pilots, and usually can be more easily released to staffs than pilots--without negatively impacting ops squadron missions--we will perhaps see proportionally more Nav/CSO types in senior leadership/staff billets than before in ACC

- MAF community is hosed--at least in my experience, most high-quality MAF pilots are getting out, and CSOs (much less high-quality ones) are almost nonexistent already. Everything AMC flies is manned, so RPA bubbas are no help . . . MAF leaders will be selected by virtue of one's willingness to stay on AD and fog a mirror. Not generally a formula for long-term success

TT  

[Champ Kind]

I’ve seen a lot of ABMs filling what I’d assume are typically 11/12X billets in NAF/AOC/MAJCOM staffs.

 

 

[Sneedro]

On 11/18/2018 at 4:05 PM, ihtfp06 said:

 

NDAA for 19 already passed and AvB is still capped at 35k.


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And yet they will be shocked when the take rate is so low...in my opinion based on little to zero facts, those who take the bonus where likely already going to stay in.  Those on the fence $35k might be enough to sway them, but it doesn't stand a chance to keep those already planning on getting out.  They're going to need a lot more money than that.  My profit sharing check every year (to date at least) is at least that much, plus I make more as it is, and I work far less at my airline than I would on AD.  The AF can complain that they are short pilots and look perplexed all they want when the masses leave, but the reality of it is the airline industry is much more appealing to most than AD.  Until they realize that and get serious with their bonus, they aren't going to sway many people to stick around.

[Majestik Møøse]

On 11/18/2018 at 10:20 AM, BashiChuni said:

I get irritated when I hear the Air Force talk to the airlines about a problem big blue created

The airlines have greatly benefited from being able to hire experienced pilots from the Air Force. They get a $10m guy with no cost to them. It isn’t good news for the airlines when the Air Force gets on the back side of that production curve. The hiring wave has already overtaken the military’s ability to feed it, so the airlines will either have to train their own guys or hire less experienced pilots. So it’s a problem for “management” across the board, but the pilots are in great shape.

[NKAWTG]

Report is out.  Way better than I expected.  1% better take rate than last year.  11F went up to 44% and 11M down to 38%.  Messaging up front is rather doom and gloom with the overall pilot inventory decreasing over the next five years. 

[IDALPHA]

47 minutes ago, NKAWTG said:

Report is out.  Way better than I expected.  1% better take rate than last year.  11F went up to 44% and 11M down to 38%.  Messaging up front is rather doom and gloom with the overall pilot inventory decreasing over the next five years. 

I may be too skeptical, but I’d truly like to see the data used to green up the spreadsheet with these “results”

[Guest]

I may be too skeptical, but I’d truly like to see the data used to green up the spreadsheet with these “results”

Remember, we’re still looking at a YG that was offered RIF and VSP. Many of my friends got out in 2014. When we get to the 09 YG and beyond, where it will be their first opportunity to vote with their feet, expect abysmal take rates.


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