Finally done in Afghanistan?

[HeloDude]

President Biden: 

“We can be value added, but the Afghans are going to have to be able to do it themselves with the Air Force they have.”

Also:

He claimed the Afghan military fields a force of 300,000 that is "as well equipped as any army in the world, an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban."

Behold, Afghanistan’s Air Force:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-pilots-assassinated-by-taliban-us-withdraws-2021-07-09/

[Danger41]

Yup, the pilots being targeted doesn’t surprise me. Hopefully they can protect them and they can put lots of bombs on lots of targets.

[HeloDude]

10 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Yup, the pilots being targeted doesn’t surprise me. Hopefully they can protect them and they can put lots of bombs on lots of targets.

If I’m a betting man, then my money is on the Taliban.  If the Taliban wasn’t defeated with us being there and actively engaging, I don’t see any way the Afghan government/military will defeat the Taliban.

I’m the end, the Taliban wants it more.

[SurelySerious]

Pakistan is worried. Guess they shouldn’t have been working with them for 20 years

[pawnman]

7 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Pakistan is worried. Guess they shouldn’t have been working with them for 20 years

Let Pakistan occupy Afghanistan for the next 20 years.

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

If I’m a betting man, then my money is on the Taliban.  If the Taliban wasn’t defeated with us being there and actively engaging, I don’t see any way the Afghan government/military will defeat the Taliban.

I’m the end, the Taliban wants it more.

We couldn't do it with the full weight of the US logistical system and unlimited money.  Afghan govt won't last 2 months.  

[di1630]

All we did was create a nation of dependents. I listened on the radio today as Afghanis claimed they have been abandoned.

The Taliban want it more, so they will win.

This should have happened 15 years ago.

We had a reasonable expectation that the Afghans would taste freedom and sustain it with our aid.

They let us down, not the other way around.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[Clark Griswold]

We couldn't do it with the full weight of the US logistical system and unlimited money.  Afghan govt won't last 2 months.  

Make that 2 weeks


No one ever wanted to admit what we were fighting after the initial defeat of the Taliban and in country elements of AQ / HN, the hyper conservative Islamic central Asian culture of Afghanistan that we found repulsive and wanted to eliminate and replace with something that practiced amenable values to Western societies (the treatment of women, minorities of various types, the ending offensive cultural practices, etc…)
The majority of the country does not want what we want them to be, sure Kabul and some other urban areas might be ok with a much less restrictive interpretation of an Islamic society but they will always be the minority and always under siege
The end will be ugly but inevitable, let’s get it over with.

Whose values are practiced at the end of a conflict in a given territory are the ultimate form of victory and we will have to accept that ours will not be practiced there not because we didn’t try but that what would be required to implant them we were and are not willing to do, nor do I think we should, namely to absolutely obliterate the country even more than it already is and purposely target the fighting age male population for near severe culling.
This is the only way you could then remake them as you willed, not advocating this just is so. Germany, Japan and South Korea worked out as they did because we had a clean slate to work from.
My guess is that this is the last nation building attempt we will see for 20 or more years, maybe we’ll get sucked into another impossible situation like a post collapse Venezuela, North Korea, Zimbabwea, etc… I hope not. If so, I hope whoever is POTUS then is honest enough to say this will take several decades, cost billions and may not work but I think it is that important enough for these reasons to commit the USA to it on my watch


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HeloDude]

I’m not saying it would have been much different with Trump, but this is laughable:

From the Pentagon Spokesperson:

“He said Afghanistan's capacity and capabilities included a "very capable" Air Force and "very sophisticated" special forces that can help defend the country from the Taliban resurgence.”

Seriously, who are they trying to fool?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/taliban-afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal-pentagon-john-kirby?cmpid=fb_fnc&fbclid=IwAR3P9imd2vIg5-1OlY_ZVmdBcjyNO9Do6V8RdZ5YEsRbyBicZ8EpxyVKZeQ

 

 

 

[Danger41]

I don’t think they’re lying. It’s the personnel operating the stuff that’s the problem.

Put me in front of a piano and it’ll sound like complete shit. Put Mozart there and you’ve got something.

[SurelySerious]

Pakistan is worried. Guess they shouldn’t have been working with them for 20 years

Allow myself to quote…myself, but now waiting for the plot of Tom Clancy’s Locked on to play out as the Taliban expands its ops. The Jack Ryan Jr series predicted Crimea, why not Pakistan (and then probs Taiwan)?
https:// https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locked_On_(novel)

[lloyd christmas]

I realize this was in Iraq.  Similar situation though.  

[GrndPndr]

ISIS seems to be moving pretty fast - If they were a "regular" (i.e. traditional) army, we could wait for them to spread out their logistics lines and cut off the head of that snake!

[08Dawg]

After 20 years of us propping them up....good riddance. Defend your own country, or don’t. Absolutely no need to waste one more American life in that dung heap of a country. 

[pbar]

We can't solve the gang violence problem in any major U.S. city, but sure, let's go try to remake Afghanistan into a functioning country though we don't understand the language, culture, history, who is who, the centuries old feuds, etc. with a population who have an average IQ of 85 and most of whom probably have PTSD from the decades of war, UXOs, child rape, complete lack of safety culture, banditry, etc.   FFS.

Edited July 13, 2021 by pbar
factual error/grammar

[M2]

47 minutes ago, pbar said:

We can't solve the gang violence problem in any major U.S. city, but sure, let's go try to remake Afghanistan into a functioning country though we don't understand the language, culture, history, who is who, the centuries old feuds, etc. with a population who have an average IQ of 75 and most of who probably have PTSD from the decades of war, UXOs, child rape, complete lack of safety culture, banditry, etc.   FFS.

[jazzdude]

We can't solve the gang violence problem in any major U.S. city, but sure, let's go try to remake Afghanistan into a functioning country though we don't understand the language, culture, history, who is who, the centuries old feuds, etc. with a population who have an average IQ of 85 and most of whom probably have PTSD from the decades of war, UXOs, child rape, complete lack of safety culture, banditry, etc.   FFS.

But what if we throw a lot of money at the problem? Plus what good are cool military toys if you don't use them? /s

[ViperMan]

In the end, our problem was how we defined "victory." We never should have been attempting to make Afghanistan a 1st world country with western values. We should have openly stated we would be content with a couple of permanent drone operating bases backed up by a few hundred/thousand personnel to drop Hellfires on them for the next 1000 years. No intention ever stated of "winning" anything. Just being a forever thorn in their side to prevent their state's use as a training base.

[uhhello]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jul/10/capitol-police-use-army-surveillance-system-americ/

At least it's not going to waste 🙂

[HeyEng]

I retired back in 2014 so I have not visited this site in quite a while, but the pullout in Afghanistan reawakened some old memories and raised some questions in me. Most of the airlift missions I did revolved flying into Bagram and other airfields.

Being in the Reserves spared me the requirement of being deployed (for the sake of deployment) as a requirement of your career development, but never-the-less I still witnessed the queep and endless shoe-clerks running around making sure you were wearing your PT gear and reflective belt when you walked 5 yards to the latrine at 0400 from your hooch.

So I guess my question is what happens now to the Air force and the Airlift Mission? Are deployments no longer a requirement if you are going to make a career of the AF? What happens to Ramstein, Rota, and other of our large overseas airlift bases? It is not that easy to back that train up and I wonder what planning or changes (if any) any of you have heard or seen. 

What is everybody's thoughts on the future of the AF, will it get better? or will it resemble something like Goya's painting of "Saturn Devouring his Son"?

 

[uhhello]

59 minutes ago, HeyEng said:

I retired back in 2014 so I have not visited this site in quite a while, but the pullout in Afghanistan reawakened some old memories and raised some questions in me. Most of the airlift missions I did revolved flying into Bagram and other airfields.

Being in the Reserves spared me the requirement of being deployed (for the sake of deployment) as a requirement of your career development, but never-the-less I still witnessed the queep and endless shoe-clerks running around making sure you were wearing your PT gear and reflective belt when you walked 5 yards to the latrine at 0400 from your hooch.

So I guess my question is what happens now to the Air force and the Airlift Mission? Are deployments no longer a requirement if you are going to make a career of the AF? What happens to Ramstein, Rota, and other of our large overseas airlift bases? It is not that easy to back that train up and I wonder what planning or changes (if any) any of you have heard or seen. 

What is everybody's thoughts on the future of the AF, will it get better? or will it resemble something like Goya's painting of "Saturn Devouring his Son"?

 

Will certainly be easier to get lodging on Ramstein 🙂

[Bigred]

On 7/16/2021 at 5:34 PM, HeyEng said:

I retired back in 2014 so I have not visited this site in quite a while, but the pullout in Afghanistan reawakened some old memories and raised some questions in me. Most of the airlift missions I did revolved flying into Bagram and other airfields.

Being in the Reserves spared me the requirement of being deployed (for the sake of deployment) as a requirement of your career development, but never-the-less I still witnessed the queep and endless shoe-clerks running around making sure you were wearing your PT gear and reflective belt when you walked 5 yards to the latrine at 0400 from your hooch.

So I guess my question is what happens now to the Air force and the Airlift Mission? Are deployments no longer a requirement if you are going to make a career of the AF? What happens to Ramstein, Rota, and other of our large overseas airlift bases? It is not that easy to back that train up and I wonder what planning or changes (if any) any of you have heard or seen. 

What is everybody's thoughts on the future of the AF, will it get better? or will it resemble something like Goya's painting of "Saturn Devouring his Son"?

 

Pure speculation, but for tanker bubbas it may involve ‘deployments’ to other areas. EUCOM and PACOM haven’t slowed down so from the AR side of AMC, it’ll still be busy. Just not hours over suckistan busy. 

[Chuck17]

On 7/16/2021 at 11:34 AM, HeyEng said:

…So I guess my question is what happens now to the Air force and the Airlift Mission? Are deployments no longer a requirement if you are going to make a career of the AF? What happens to Ramstein, Rota, and other of our large overseas airlift bases? It is not that easy to back that train up and I wonder what planning or changes (if any) any of you have heard or seen. 

What is everybody's thoughts on the future of the AF, will it get better? 

 

In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially.

Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. 

And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years.

And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). 

Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon.

Chuck

Edited July 18, 2021 by Chuck17

[Alpharatz]

I was sort of under the impression that a big reason "we" were in the "stan" was to keep on eye on certain Paki items...maybe not..In any case Afghanistan was described 200 years ago as "the veritable home of murder, battle and sudden death...I think it was a "daddy thing" with Junior..

[Sua Sponte]

9 hours ago, Alpharatz said:

I was sort of under the impression that a big reason "we" were in the "stan" was to keep on eye on certain Paki items...maybe not..In any case Afghanistan was described 200 years ago as "the veritable home of murder, battle and sudden death...I think it was a "daddy thing" with Junior..

You think Afghanistan was a “daddy thing” with Bush Jr? Not Iraq?