Finally done in Afghanistan?

[Right Seat Driver]

In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially.
Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. 
And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years.
And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). 
Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon.
Chuck

That checks.


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[SocialD]

20 hours ago, Chuck17 said:

And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). 

Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon.

Chuck

 

Mid-late 90s OPS TEMPO you say?  30 day deployments, every 3+ years, with only the occasional long TDY in between.  Sign me up!  If I knew we wouldnt be deploying every 19-24 months, on a waste of time deployment, I would potentially stick around a bit longer.  

[pawnman]

On 7/18/2021 at 8:18 AM, Chuck17 said:

In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially.

Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. 

And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years.

And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). 

Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon.

Chuck

I don't see any wings shuttering.  If we didn't close any after kicking 25,000 people out in 2012-2013, we're not going to do it in 2023.

Congress loves to save money in the military budget, but they hate the idea of losing the base in their district.

[Lawman]

I don't see any wings shuttering.  If we didn't close any after kicking 25,000 people out in 2012-2013, we're not going to do it in 2023.
Congress loves to save money in the military budget, but they hate the idea of losing the base in their district.

You can always route federal funding to “resource” the base with Federal employees, despite the fact it has no real mission or justification for maintaining what is there in place.

Fort Knox is a good example of this. No way the vault and Human Resources Command justifying the amount of real estate and support infrastructure that is on a base that used to maintain the Army’s second largest training intake BCT and the entire Armor and Cavalry branch schools. But still gotta pay all those range control guys to drive around on roads and make sure nobody is back there hunting without a pass.


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[Breckey]

6 hours ago, Lawman said:

You can always route federal funding to “resource” the base with Federal employees, despite the fact it has no real mission or justification for maintaining what is there in place.

Fort Knox is a good example of this. No way the vault and Human Resources Command justifying the amount of real estate and support infrastructure that is on a base that used to maintain the Army’s second largest training intake BCT and the entire Armor and Cavalry branch schools. But still gotta pay all those range control guys to drive around on roads and make sure nobody is back there hunting without a pass.


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Or Grand Forks AFB. That base should have been shuttered when the tankers left. Especially now that the Global Hawk is gone. 

[tac airlifter]

Looks like we’re not totally done out there.

[Lawman]

Looks like we’re not totally done out there.

F all that…

“Yeah guys perform air strikes for a foreign military with no competent representation on the ground to actually dictate the targeting cycle or call in/off air appropriate to the scenarios… Sure everything will be fine.”

Do we get to just pick our own targets now? Or do we get to use the “dude had a 3rd grade education and barely spoke English, how was I supposed to know that was a school I was shooting” at a future war crimes investigation?

We crushed people’s souls for doing the right thing and having stuff go bad when it was Top tier guys calling it in. No way should bubbas be flying strike lines for them without some seriously predetermined immunity for this.

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[HeloDude]

How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this…

https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI

[uhhello]

30 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this…

https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI

It won't look like that only because there aren't any helos with skids there 🙂

[Swizzle]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this…

https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI

What else could they have added, military coup? Riots? Seems a legit lvl. 4, puts other lvl 4 COVID-only advisories to shame. 

"The Travel Advisory for Afghanistan remains Level 4-Do Not Travel due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, armed conflict, and COVID-19."

[RegularJoe]

How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country

[HuggyU2]

2 hours ago, RegularJoe said:

How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country

I'll never go back to that shit hole. 

But I might make a brief exception for this. 

[RegularJoe]

46 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

I'll never go back to that shit hole. 

But I might make a brief exception for this. 

I figure if the C-27's sold for 40k then an A29 should be around a grand.

[HeloDude]

4 hours ago, RegularJoe said:

I figure if the C-27's sold for 40k then an A29 should be around a grand.

Nah…$2K.  Bidenflation.

[war007afa]

On 8/9/2021 at 10:14 PM, RegularJoe said:

How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country

Trust me when I say you won’t want them anymore…

[SocialD]

Taliban takes Kunduz and moving in on Herat and Lashkar Gah.

 

Well it looks like we've finally turned that corner all those generals have been talking about over the last two decades...

[RegularJoe]

12 hours ago, war007afa said:

Trust me when I say you won’t want them anymore…

I was in charge of getting them built originally so I know what to strip off them to make it worth while 😉

 

Anyone know where serial number 3 or 4 ended up, I thought 4 was in Kandahar 

[brabus]

I feel like every bomb, rocket, and bullet I employed in Kunduz and Herat made such a difference in the world. Thanks for cementing that reality SocialD!

Also, fuck that place…

[Breckey]

Who wants to be a Chopper Popper?

 

 

 

 

 

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, Breckey said:

Who wants to be a Chopper Popper?

 

 

 

 

 

Eh, they'll crash them without any help from us.

[arg]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

Eh, they'll crash them without any help from us.

It'll be hard to crash that one.

[HuggyU2]

Those morons can't maintain a treadmill in the gym.  As soon as that helo goes Code 3, it will be a static display.  

[gearhog]

Taliban soldier twitter account. That helo will never see the air again, but they scored "innumerable" vehicles, weapons, and equipment. They are currently making gains toward Kabul.

As the Taliban effectively overtakes the whole of the country and imposes Islamic law, the Biden admin thinks they deserve a role in the international community:

https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1425511981277134855?s=20

Edited August 12, 2021 by torqued

[pawnman]

So Trump is too dangerous for Twitter, but a literal terrorist organization is good to go?

[FLEA]

32 minutes ago, pawnman said:

So Trump is too dangerous for Twitter, but a literal terrorist organization is good to go?

Yeah thats bit fucked up.