Finally done in Afghanistan?

[pilot]

 

[pilot]

 

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

The 2312 number is contentious. It doesn't include contractors or combat related suicides (which are almost 10 times the number of casualties), but for the sake of argument we'll go with 2312. I could be convinced that those numbers of casualties are worth it, if that was it. But in addition to those deaths, do you also think it was worth the $2,260,000,000,000 dollars and twenty lost years of military modernization in reference to actual peer power competitors i.e. China/Russia? 

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/military/killed
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/oct/27/donald-trump/did-us-spend-6-trillion-middle-east-wars/

The PLA alone has already caught up, in unclassified reports, in Ships, Missiles, and Air Defenses, among more. In many Rand studies, we have lost significant ground in dozens of areas that we had a significant advantage in only 20 years ago.

https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB9800/RB9858z1/RAND_RB9858z1.pdf

For reference, with $2.26T, we could have bought an entire new additional fighter platform fleet analogous to the F-35 from cradle to grave, lasting until 2070 (including development/test/operations/sustainment).

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2021-06-01/The-F-35-Joint-Strike-Fighter-the-costliest-weapon-system-in-US-military-history-now-faces-pushback-in-Congress-1618847.html

You could have bought over 17 entire carrier battle groups + air wings + personnel and operated them literally every day for 50 years.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA575866.pdf

You could have modernized to actually fight against the IADS, the J-20, chinese satellites, the cyber threats, anti-ship missiles, etc. We could have technologies that are relevant to peer competition. We could have replaced the E-3, the A-10, the B-52, the F-16, the EC-130, the RC-135, the AC-130, the MQ-9, the B-1, etc. The army could have upgraded the patriot. The marines and army could have developed modernized fires systems.



You could have modernized our outdated nuclear triad. We could have developed hypersonics on parity with our competitors. 

https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-hypersonic-missiles-methods-and-motives/

But instead we decided to try to wipe out an ideology that killed 3000 American civilians. And it didn't just stop with Afghanistan - it brought us to Iraq and Syria. I have to admit, some of those sorties seemed deeply satisfying to me, at first. It felt like I was making a difference. But every year that I was there, I realized more and more that we were getting nothing done. One poignant example was fencing in to fight a faction that, only a few years ago, I was defending. That wasn't just a single event, either. If that's not an operational/strategic miscalculation, I don't know what is.

I can agree with some folks on here that want to point out that we were successful tactically and operationally. Some really smart tacticians/operations commanders did a good job of fighting a conventional war against an unconventional combatant. But to say we had any clear strategic or grand strategy victories in the middle east is a huge stretch. FFS, we let Russia invade Crimea, and we pretended like it didn't happen.

In the end in the middle east, we didn't just give away the 7000+ uniformed deaths, the 8000+ contractor deaths, and the 30000+ military suicides after coming back home. We gave away an unfathomable amount of money, our advantage in the future fight, and a huge portion of our strategic influence.

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/military/killed

Great post. Helps put it all in perspective. What a fucking waste. 

[Wendell]

All I know is that I keep seeing videos that have thousands of military aged males in Afghanistan who should pick up a f****ng gun and actually fight for their country and families.

[HeloDude]

One thing is certain…I know I’ve lost more freedoms and liberties due to my own government than I have due to the Taliban. 

[kaputt]

Quote

$2,260,000,000,000

Just a mind blowing amount of money. 
 

A guy I know was sharing his thoughts on Facebook and included a picture from Bagram where he checking out a Harley dealer that had been set up, complete with actual motorcycles you could look at. What a weird fucking war. 

[Negatory]

History is something. I guess I’d describe it as eerie. Chaplain G. H. Gleig, British Army, 1843 after returning from fighting in Afghanistan for the previous 3 years, had this to say:

“A war begun for no wise purpose, carried on with a strange mixture of rashness and timidity, brought to a close after suffering and disaster, without much glory attached either to the government which directed, or the great body of troops which waged it. Not one benefit, political or military, was acquired with this war.”

A mere 30 years later, Britain thought about going back. One of the army soldiers who had been taken hostage during hostilities wrote an article to the British papers urging caution:

“A new generation has arisen which, instead of profiting from the solemn lessons of the past, is willing and eager to embroil us in the affairs of that turbulent and unhappy country ... The disaster of Retreat from Kabul should stand forever a warning to the Statesmen of the future not to repeat the policies that bore such bitter fruit in 1839-42.”

[ViperMan]

7 hours ago, Bode said:

800 pax. I can’t say I believe it. I think they would literally have to all stand.

 

6 hours ago, McJay Pilot said:

452 on a C-130. I believe 800 on a C-17.

https://www.littlerock.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2001741050/

I would love to be at the ceremony for the DFCs handed out for flying that many passengers out on a C-17 or130. It'd be awesome to here those citations juxtaposed with some of the OPR bullets that "laud" praise on how well the war is going - just take some of the heaviest hitters from the last 5-8 years. That'd make for comedic gold.

[Prozac]

7 hours ago, Pancake said:

Well said.

Tactically, Afghanistan was lost on the very first battle. Strategically, it’s never been more important than now. In the 14 years between my first and last deployment there, nothing changed, except China became more influential.

Our biggest weakness is our cultural intolerance to play the long game. This is the root cause of all of our military losses.

I don’t think there are many countries that have the cultural tolerance to spend 20, 30, 40 or more years in a place like Afghanistan in order to shape it in their image. From the very outset the Taliban knew the same thing the Viet Cong did: all they had to do was wait long enough and the country would be theirs once again. Going after Al Quaeda was a valid mission. The moment we morphed the mission into nation building, we sealed the fate that is playing out today. 

[dream big]

1 hour ago, Wendell said:

All I know is that I keep seeing videos that have thousands of military aged males in Afghanistan who should pick up a f****ng gun and actually fight for their country and families.

Exactly.  What the fuck were we doing besides training them the last 20 years?

[gearhog]

7 hours ago, Lawman said:

When this shit show ends, and we start talking about Awards and Citations, the arm chair reviewers better just shut the F up and forward the DFCs for the people over there right now to do this last heavy lifting.

You’re taking a vulnerable cargo aircraft into a chaotic situation at best, parking it in front of ever Afghan who wants to escape and loading pax/refueling while the security perimeter hopefully lasts.

This is some Berlin airlift worth shit for our Cargo and heavy Helo brethren and it damn sure needs to be recognized as one of the bright spots in this total F up.


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Can you imagine making decisions that this C-17 crew is having to make? An unknown number/nationality of floor-loaded pax, Afghan clinging to the landing gear while you're taxiing in hopes of escape. Waiting at the end of the runway while two Apaches attempt to clear it of thousands of frantic Afghan civilians? Afghanis falling from the plane after takeoff?

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1427194671223250948?s=20https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1427194671223250948?s=20

 

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by torqued

[gearhog]

Holy shit

https://twitter.com/NewsForAllUK/status/1427203279256227844?s=20

 

[HU&W]

A0630/21 NOTAMN Q) OAKX/QAFAM/IV/NBO/A/000/999/3434N/6912E/999 A) OAKX B) 2108160715 C) 2108180445 EST E) FOLLOWING NOTAM IS ISSUED ON REQUEST OF KABUL ACC. DUE SECURITY REASON KABUL ACC IS RELEASED TO MILITARY. NO ATS WILL BE AVAILABLE. AIRCRAFT TRANSITING THROUGH KABUL FIR WILL BE FLYING IN UN-CONTROLLED AIRSPACE AT THEIR OWN RISK

[ClearedHot]

6 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Concur with you on your point(s).  I would add that I respect @ClearedHot's opinion and read it and mulled on it for a while, I don't agree with it but I could not figure the why and I think I have it now. 

The argument for remaining is to defend an order, an idea for a world that no longer exists, that is a Pax Americana world order where we are the guarantor in many places for ideas, values, systems that we like and promote and want others to embrace but can't take root.  It's the order we thought would last forever plus a day at the end of the Cold War beginning of the 90's when we believed our power was infinite.  Serbia and the ethnic wars of South-Eastern Europe with our mixed results for what we were willing to commit to and convince our Allies to do should have warned us that there is only so much you can do, even as rich and as powerful as you are.  

The world where we go anywhere and bear any burden is gone, not because that is not a good or noble idea just one that we as a nation, not as individuals,  are not willing to pay for, to sacrifice for, to discipline ourselves for.  We are just not that nation, not saying we are a bad nation now, we've changed.

We have less cohesion, spiritual reserves and excess material resources to use to help others when it is not in our material national interest.  

The Serenity Prayer is what we need now and going forward as we deal with the world.

That is not proof of no major attacks in the US because of Iraq / Afghanistan / Libya / Syria.

There were attacks in the UK and Europe and attempts in the US with some minor attacks.  Is it because they were all "over there" or because the FBI plus others were using the Patriot Act plus much more aggressive technological means to disrupt cells & plots before they grew to fruition?  The wars following 911 distracted some terrorists but not all to attempting to attack the US homeland, it surely dissuaded some nations from overtly / tacitly supporting them and or neutrally allowing them to operate / prepare on their territory but 

I guess time will tell because now there are a whole lot of bad guys who think they just kicked our ass.  Do you think they just stop right there and call it a day?  A whole lot of violence is about to be exported to other parts of the region and the world.

[ClearedHot]

47 minutes ago, torqued said:

Holy shit

https://twitter.com/NewsForAllUK/status/1427203279256227844?s=20

 

 

[charlie141]

I’m a graybeard airlifter and usually just a lurker, but I cannot fathom what’s taking place at Kabul

I’ve been in some hairy airlift situations before but have never seen anything like the videos of that C-17 trying to escape a runway full of people

Might become the modern equivalent of the Saigon helo evac pic….

God bless our US forces


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[jazzdude]

800 pax. I can’t say I believe it. I think they would literally have to all stand.


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They'd have to not just be standing, but standing and packed like sardines.

C-17 carries 18 pallets, which would work out to roughly 2 sq ft per pax if they were solely on the cargo floor. Might get a bit more room standing in the galley or on the cargo door, and maybe a few more upstairs in the crew rest area.

For reference, typical pax load is roughly 100, 150ish with seat pallets, and 250ish of you floor load the pax (aka have them sit and throw a cargo strap over their legs).

Kudos to the crew for managing a difficult situation and making it happen.

[Bode]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/saigon-on-steroids-multiple-people-killed-at-airport-as-afghans-desperately-try-to-board-planes?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=benshapiro&fbclid=IwAR2b2htpaUOevyS-aHwTO9osNwgYCbm80-LIIaL10L91kC_yif7YK4sFdWU

Check out the fourth video on this. Pretty crazy.

I hope no one is killed while they are doing this, for the sole reason I don’t want it on the aircrews soul.

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[WAG]

You all are talking DFC and medals and I’m thinking court-martial with this Admin. 

Edited August 16, 2021 by WAG

[ClearedHot]

The State Department and Department of Defense said in a statement Sunday that there are “thousands” of Americans stranded in Afghanistan after the Taliban declared victory over the U.S.-backed government earlier in the day. 

[jrizzell]

The State Department and Department of Defense said in a statement Sunday that there are “thousands” of Americans stranded in Afghanistan after the Taliban declared victory over the U.S.-backed government earlier in the day. 

There will be many who blame Biden for the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, I personally think that was inevitable, regardless of who was in the chair when we left.

But leaving THOUSANDS of Americans stranded, that falls 100% on his administration. They’re charged with protecting our governmental civilians serving their country. The lack of planning is truly astonishing. I’m hoping they make it out safely.


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[gearhog]

16 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The State Department and Department of Defense said in a statement Sunday that there are “thousands” of Americans stranded in Afghanistan after the Taliban declared victory over the U.S.-backed government earlier in the day. 

 

[ClearedHot]

Germany says they have 10,000 people they need to get out.  Complete and utter shit show!

[Breckey]

It'll be interesting to see what intelligence estimates assessed the crumbling of the entire ANA and Afghan government in less than 96 hours.

I'm going to bet that the US and other coalition governments are going to make a deal with the Taliban to secure departure of their personnel. The issue is different than 1975 in that there isn't the threat of armored divisions bearing down on the capital. We tried to make a peace deal in 2020, let's see how much the "new" government is willing to negotiate.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Breckey

[slc]

The lack of planning for this one is truly astonishing.  Pack up and leave during the height of the fighting season when the enemy is strongest.  Why not wait till winter when they all head to Pakistan?  Oh wait, because someone wants to establish the final day on 11 Sept.  How ironic when that day comes and the Taliban plant that flag atop the US embassy.  The long term negative optics on this will be painful