Finally done in Afghanistan?

[VMFA187]

7 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Posted multiple times and discussed on last page of this thread.

Attention to detail, or lack thereof noted. One below for headwork. 

[arg]

1 hour ago, DVT said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/anti-taliban-leader-massoud-says-negotiation-only-way-forward-2021-08-22/

The Afghanistan Governmenr has retaken 3 districts from the Taliban.  As others have stated, the, "Forever War" is not over.  The landscape has just changed.

If true and successful current admin taking credit in 3...2....1

[arg]

Gowdy 

 

[HuggyU2]

Exactly who are these 15,000 Americans?  And why are they there?
I haven't seen data on that. 
 

[Clark Griswold]

10 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

Exactly who are these 15,000 Americans?  And why are they there?
I haven't seen data on that. 

Same but a guess dual Afghan-American or American citizens of Afghan descent or naturalized.  Doesn't matter which to moi as they are .Mericans so get them the hell out.

Saw NSA Sullivan on MTP this am and he was saying that they (the majority) were advised to leave weeks ago and offered financial assistance if unable to leave, will take him at his word until otherwise but still you could have told the Taliban its going to take some time and back off. 

You're a GD superpower, act like one, demonstrate you will not be cowed.

[arg]

18 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

Exactly who are these 15,000 Americans?  And why are they there?
I haven't seen data on that. 
 

Good question, I've wondered that myself. 

[ClearedHot]

8 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

Exactly who are these 15,000 Americans?  And why are they there?
I haven't seen data on that. 
 

I take it you haven't been there?  Not a snide comment but if you've spent anytime in country then you have a better optic for all various groups and folks operating there.

I have not seen the number 15,000 confirmed but from some of the articles I've read they are mixture of different folks and different reasons.  First and foremost, there are MANY NGOs that have been working in Afghanistan for years.  At one point there were 298 Afghan and 182 International NGOs working in Afghanistan.  There are also dual-citizens and American family members who were there helping family and with businesses.  There are VAST resources of some key minerals like Lithium so I would assume some of them were working for the various businesses in country. 

What is so asinine is things have been relatively quiet as compared to years past.  The last U.S. combat death in country was almost 18 months ago.  Was this a function of the Taliban waiting foe us to leave after the Trump deal or were things better...I do not know.  What is certain is once we started to run the Taliban became EXTREMELY aggressive.

[Premo]

32 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

 Was this a function of the Taliban waiting foe us to leave after the Trump deal or were things better...I do not know.  What is certain is once we started to run the Taliban became EXTREMELY aggressive.

Of course it was. The Trump admin. made a deal--don't shoot us as we leave out the back door. They want us gone that badly so they can run the place. To say that 2500 troops could have kept a lid on it is pure fantasy. Past a certain point the Taliban would have gotten impatient, surges would have been needed to bolster the ANA and keep the Afghan govt afloat, and we'd be sucked right back in it again.

[fire4effect]

Taliban says hundreds of fighters heading to take Panjshir Valley | Asia News | Al Jazeera

Target rich environment.

[HuggyU2]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

I take it you haven't been there?  Not a snide comment but if you've spent anytime in country then you have a better optic for all various groups and folks operating there.

ClearedHot, I have no SA on the situation.  I was there 2011-2012, but the only time I left Bagram was when I was in an MC-12 (a horribly led, horribly tasked platform that had a lot of potential... but was a major shit-show), so I have no frame of reference outside what we did in that aircraft.  I met a plethora of Americans, Egyptians, Emirates, etc... inside the compound but have no idea what they contributed.  

I just read about a women and her two children that were there to "visit relatives".  I have no idea if that is fact, but if anyone is there "on vacation" I'm of the opinion that you have created a self-inflicted wound.  Really?  You went there to "see your relatives"?  Gutsy call, Mav.  And I'm not of the opinion that my son or daughter should bail you out from your decision to go there.  

You intentionally entered that country of your own accord?  YGBSM.  

It's like the three americans that were hiking on the Iran-Iraq border.  Great idea!!!  Your actions resulted in millions of dollars of American diplomacy to get you back from Iran.  I wonder what all of the energy could have been directed toward, had you not decided to tempt fate.  Next time, try the Sierra Nevada.  

 

[HuggyU2]

ClearedHot, I have no SA on the situation.  I was there 2011-2012, but the only time I left Bagram was when I was in an MC-12 (a horribly led, horribly tasked platform that had a lot of potential... but was a major shit-show), so I have no frame of reference outside what we did in that aircraft.  I met a plethora of Americans, Egyptians, Emirates, etc... inside the compound but have no idea what they contributed.  

I just read about a woman and her two children that were there to "visit relatives".  I have no idea if that is fact, but if anyone is there "on vacation" I'm of the opinion that you have created a self-inflicted wound.  Really?  You went there to "see your relatives"?  Gutsy call, Mav.  And I'm not of the opinion that my son or daughter should bail you out from your decision to go there.  

You intentionally entered that war zone of your own accord?  YGBSM.  

It's like the three americans that were hiking on the Iran-Iraq border.  Great idea!!!  Your actions resulted in millions of dollars of American diplomacy to get you back from Iran.  I wonder what all of the energy could have been directed toward, had you not decided to tempt fate.  Next time, try the Sierra Nevada. 

 

So my question stands: are these 15,000 Americans in country doing service for the US Govt?  If not, why are they there?

Edited August 23, 2021 by HuggyU2

[FLEA]

CAO - 22 AUG 21 // 1620 EST

Lots of reports of ISIS and other bad actors buying the data from Facebook and WhatsApp to track assistance to Afghans and locations of Afghans affiliated with US/Coalition efforts.
Continue to connect here and pass OSINT info to keep members informed.  TTPs, locations, names, and other data that would put our friends at risk should be shared over Signal or other more secure means.
If anyone is looking for movement TTPs one of my buddies sent me tips that he has been using to prep folks for movement.

 

 

FYI of you are communicating with folks in country. 

 

[ClearedHot]

9 hours ago, fire4effect said:

Taliban says hundreds of fighters heading to take Panjshir Valley | Asia News | Al Jazeera

Target rich environment.

Might need a bit of deconfliction and I would be careful who we strike there.  The Taliban are going because Ahmad Massoud, (son of Ahmad Shah Massoud “Lion of the Panjshir"), has established a serious resistance threat.  If you know the history his father was a legendary Anti-soviet guerilla fighter/leader who also hated and resisted the Taliban.  He successfully defended the Panjshir Valley against the Soviets and Taliban.  He was assassinated two days before the planes hit the tower and may well have shaped a different outcome in Afghanistan had he survived.  Regardless, his son is the only one who can mount a serious internal challenge to the Taliban.  Like his father he is highly educated (secondary school education in Iran, time at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (Britain's West Point), Bachelors Degree in war studies from King's College London and a Master's Degree in international Politics form University of London.  This will be the only serious challenge to the Taliban and they have a lot of backing from more moderate sympathizers in Europe.

 

 

[pawnman]

10 hours ago, fire4effect said:

Taliban says hundreds of fighters heading to take Panjshir Valley | Asia News | Al Jazeera

Target rich environment.

Unleashing airstrikes on the Taliban while their cooperation is still required for the evacuations may not be the best course of action...

[Guardian]

Unleashing airstrikes on the Taliban while their cooperation is still required for the evacuations may not be the best course of action...

We need their help completing our defeat at the hands of the current administration.

[fire4effect]

39 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Might need a bit of deconfliction and I would be careful who we strike there.  The Taliban are going because Ahmad Massoud, (son of Ahmad Shah Massoud “Lion of the Panjshir"), has established a serious resistance threat.  If you know the history his father was a legendary Anti-soviet guerilla fighter/leader who also hated and resisted the Taliban.  He successfully defended the Panjshir Valley against the Soviets and Taliban.  He was assassinated two days before the planes hit the tower and may well have shaped a different outcome in Afghanistan had he survived.  Regardless, his son is the only one who can mount a serious internal challenge to the Taliban.  Like his father he is highly educated (secondary school education in Iran, time at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (Britain's West Point), Bachelors Degree in war studies from King's College London and a Master's Degree in international Politics form University of London.  This will be the only serious challenge to the Taliban and they have a lot of backing from more moderate sympathizers in Europe.

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Unleashing airstrikes on the Taliban while their cooperation is still required for the evacuations may not be the best course of action...

Yes Sir to both. And its the kind of thing that keeps the people making the decisions up at night but I don't see a way around going all in. If we think fighting the Taliban is inevitable we need degrade them any way we can. The Northern Alliance as I'll still refer to them could be a powerful ally going forward and as I've mentioned before we need to make it clear to Pakistan they're the ones who allowed the Taliban to flourish and commit the atrocities that are going on now. Sh!tty calculus of no really good options is my take.

[Guardian]

Gowdy 
 

I hope he or Ben Shapiro run for office. Sad that Gowdy left. He is an amazing resource of rational thought and integrity.

Thanks for the post ARG.

[HeloDude]

Taliban says no extension on US presence past 31 Aug deadline.  Be very careful who you get in bed with…

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-58279900?pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:fc438165-ed48-4022-8004-ce10e757c44a&pinned_post_asset_id=6123616d8a9b6e52604c99a3&pinned_post_type=share

[FLEA]

Found out most ANSOF are staying to fight even though many have been offered visas. Panjshir isnt far from Bagram. I'm wondering if any consideration is given to helping ANSOF retake Bagram before we say final peace if the Aug 31 deadline isn't extended. This would give the US a usable airfield to continue evacuation from as long as people can get out of Kabul. Would also seriously threaten the Taliban's long term capability to control Kabul. They may need to withdrawal to Kandahar. 

[HeyEng]

I saw this on FB from a guy who broke down each countries air assets that are evacuating people from Afghanistan. I cannot vouch how accurate it is but lacking anything else I guess it’s a starting point. 
From Tom Cooper:

Today is something like the 7th day of ‘non-combat evacuation’ from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul (‘Kabul IAP’). The airport is reported as ‘safe’, now, with a firm perimeter defence, and Afghan, US, and British troops guarding all the entries. However, it’s getting ever harder to approach the airport (see the end of report why). Regarding involved forces and their operations: 

Afghanistan
- 400-500 AIA and NDS commandos are still there holding the perimeter of the Kabul IAP. What happened with up to 50,000 other personnel of the two agencies, nor if anybody in the Washington DC might ever come to the idea to try saving them – is unknown. 

Austria (this just ‘for the records’)
- Austrian Chancellor Kurz proudly announced he’s against taking in ‘any more’ Afghans… Instead, Austrian government is going to pay one of neighbouring states to take in the refugees… 

Australia
- After growing pressure at home, the Australian PM ordered the RAAF into action. 
- 1 C-17A flight evacuated 26 on/around 17 August, another 76 were evacuated by a RAF (British) transport on Thursday, 19 August. 

Bahrain
- Is permitting aircraft carrying evacuees to stop and refuel – and that’s it (I’m always flashed by the much-praised ‘Islamic solidarity’)

Belgium
- 2 C-130s and 1 A.400M (from Luxemburg) are involved; couldn’t find additional details right now. 

Canada
- 2 C-17As involved since Thursday, 19 August. 

Czech Republic
- 3 flights by A.319s evacuated 170 Afghans that used to work with the Czech Army, and all of the embassy staff (most were picked out of Kabul by the Czech Army SF teams). No further action is planned. 

Denmark
- 2 C-130Js are used to evacuate Danes and eligible Afghans to Islamabad, from there they’re flown to Denmakr by airliners chartered from Sweden, including SAS A.320NEOs registered as SE-ROG and SE-DYC, plus the DAT MD-83 OY-RUE. An SF detachment is involved, but I’m not sure if it’s still at Kabul IAP. 

EU
- The usual lots of talking but, except for negotiations with ‘Taliban that are not recognised by the EU’, little action. The EU announced on Thursday, 19 August, that 100 EU staff and 400 Afghans working with the EU (and their families) had been evacuated, while 300 additional Afghans are still trying to leave. However, it also stated that it’s ‘mathematically impossible’ for the USA and allies to evacuate all the Afghan personnel that had worked for the foreign forces. Great to see the honourable politicians paid to plan and act came to the idea to think about this at all – and only now… 

Finland
- 2 C.295M transport aircraft and a squad of Utti Special Jaeger Rgt (SF), facilitating evacuation of Finnish nationals. 

France
- 1 A.400M and one C.130H-30 are evacuating people to Dhafra AB, in the UAE; from there, A.330s of the Air Force are evacuating to France. 
- Like Italians and Spaniards (see below), French RAID SF unit evacuated over 240 people from different spots in Kabul of the last few days – until ordered to stop, by US commanders. 
Germany
- 7 A.400Ms are involved; they have evacuated over 2,000 people by now; 
- the KSK team and two H.145M helicopters at still at Kabul IAP, but in the light of US commanders prohibiting any ‘externals’ (at least until yesterday), they were standing idle for much of the last two days: first ops over Kabul were reportedly flown the last night. 
- So far, at least two German citizens were shot and wounded during diverse of ‘external’ evacuation ops outside Kabul IAP. 

Great Britain
- Globemasters and Hercules of the RAF are involved, and evacuating via the UAE. Like the French, the 900 troops of the 2nd Para/16th Airborne Brigade were excelling at bringing additional evacuees to the Kabul IAP, until interrupted by US commanders, two days ago. London intends to evacuate 6,000-7,000 people, but no aid workers and none of 125 Afghan guards that used to protect its embassy (these were hired by a PMC). 

Hungary
- taking out own citizens, and might accept some Afghans that worked for its government over the time (details remain scarce)

India
- Either on 16 or 17 August, 150-170 Indian nationals were escorted by the Taliban to Kabul IAP (yup, the embassy arranged this), and then flown out to Jamnagar and New Delhi by a C-17A of the Indian Air Force. Another 50 were flown out before the Taliban took over. 

Indonesia
- 1 B737 (A-7305) evacuated 33 people from Kabul on 18 August, including 26 Indonesian, 5 Philippino, and 2 Afghan nationals. 

Italy
- 4 C-130Js are evacuating to Kuwait, where 4 KC-767s are flying evacuees out to Italy.  
- Italians have teams from the 1st Tuscania Airborne Regiment and the 7th Trentino Alto Adige Regiment (both Carabinieri). They might have some paratroopers of the Folore Division in situ, too, and they seem to have run several ‘externals’ outside the Kabul IAP, until stopped by US commanders. There are reasonably lot of photos showing them ‘all over thee place’. Nominaly at least, the government in Roma plans to evacuate 2,500 Afghans that used to work for it. 
- Over 1,000 Afghans were evacuated to Italy as of yesterday, another 211 arrived the last night. 

Japan
- 12 diplomatic personnel evacuated by foreign aircraft on Wednesday, 18 August. 

Netherlands
- 2 C-103H-30s and running one flight each – a day. Probably to the UAE. 
- 1 A.330M tanker evacuated about 180 from Islamabad, on 20 August; a C-17 flew out 86 yesterday, another 160 were flown out by an A.330M early this morning.

Poland
- 3 C-130s involved, evacuating from Kabul to Uzbekistan; LOT airliners are flying people out (five sorties so far)
- BTW, some of German media is using photos of Polish C-130s to ‘illustrate’ the Qatari deployment of US-made C-17s to fly the Taliban leadership from Doha to Qandahar….

Qatar
- I love reporting about Qatari involvement, really – because it’s ‘murky waters’ all the way. Official statements say ‘continuing efforts to evacuate people from Afghanistan… additional flights schedule for the upcoming days’, and they have also shown one of C-17 – perhaps the same that brought the Taliban leadership to Qandahar? – picking up evacuees in such a well-organised fashion, that even Hollywood would have a problem to organise it that way. But, have no doubts: Biden is – endlessly – thankful for Qatar’s ‘help in Afghanistan’ and the mainstream media is full of reports about Qatar ‘housing thousands of evacuees (until they can enter a third country)’. Some of French commentators are ‘overwhelmed’ by the Qatari help, too. Makes me wonder how much did Doha pay for that (if it had to pay anything at all)… 

Romania
- 1 C-130 flight to Islamabad evacuated 2 Romanians, 1 British, 1 Bulgarian, and 1 US citizen. No new on 14 Romanians that were waiting to be evacuated as of Thursday. 
- 1 C-27J remains on hold for possible involvement. 

Slovakia
- 1 C-27J flew out 24 people on 19 August. 

Slovenia
- 5 Slovenes evacuated to Italy and France, also an Afghan translator that worked for them (was flown from Paris to Ljubljana by a Slovenian Falcon bizjet). 

Spain
- At least 3 A.400Ms are involved, and evacuating to Dubai in the UAE. For example, one transport with 110 Afghan refugees – including 36 that used to work for the US administration – arrived at Torrejon yesterday. 
- Spain has two teams deployed at Kabul IAP: a squadron of EZAPAC (SF troops) and one from GEO (SWAT asset). They run several externals into Kabul over the last days – until stopped by US commanders, like everybody else. 
- Contrary to its troops, the government was a mess in regards of Afghanistan, initially, but now official Spain announced it is providing two additional military bases as transit stations for Afghan evacuees: Moron (de la Frontera) AB, near Seville, and (NAS) Rota, near Cadiz. 

South Africa
- Nothing. Indeed, one is left to wonder what’s going to happen with hundreds of South African private military contractors (PMCs), known to have been in the country only about a week ago… 

Sweden
- 2 C-130H/TP-85 transports involved. 

Switzerland
- 230 people evacuated by foreign aircraft: 40 Afghans that used to work for the embassy are going to be allowed into Switzerland. 

Turkey
- 3-4 A.400Ms and at least 1-2 C-130s involved
- Turkish Army has 650 troops from the 2 Bolu Commando Brigade, 5 Hakkari Brigade, and some Gendarmes, reinforced by 120 Azerbijan Army troops, at Kabul IAP. 

UAE
- United Arab Emirates reportedly ‘facilitated’ the evacuation of 8,500 people from Afghanistan in the last week. 

USA
-      Rear Admiral Peter Vasely is in overall command of the evacuation
-      Major-General Chris Donahue is in command of Kabul IAP
- Ground units are including 2nd Bn/1st Marines, 1st Bn/8th Marines, 1st Combined Bn/194th Armour (Minn National Guard), 3rd BCT 82nd Airborne Division, and 4th Bn/31st Infantry 2nd BCT/10th Mountain Division. There is ever less to see of SF ops. 
- Top cover provided by F/A-18E/Fs from USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)
- After holding back everybody else for days, Vasely and Donahue have granted permission for an US external: yesterday, at least 96 Afghans were evacuated by CH-47 helicopters to Kabul IAP. 
- 2,500 US nationals were evacuated over the last six days, and then 3,800 over the last 24 hours. It remains unclear how many US citizens are still in the country, but plan is now to fly 5,000 Afghan nationals to the UAE, on temporary basis (for 10 days), of course.  
After reviewing diverse videos of the last six days, my estimate is that about 30 people have been killed at or around Kabul IAP since evacuation began: 5-6 were shot, 7 crushed to death, up to 20 fell off USAF C-17As (not the usually reported ‘three’), or were overrun… 

BTW, the worst is yet to come, then the Taliban have handed over the security of Kabul to Sirajuddin Haqqani (who barely survived COVID-19, back in July) and his ‘Haqqani Network: Haqqani was sought for by the USA as much as OBL, and nobody knows how many Afghans were killed by UCAV strikes at ‘Haqqani headquarters’ over the years… 

Ah yes, and right on Haqqani’s heels, and in addition to the Taliban releasing thousands of the TTP from Afghan jails, another lovely piece of news is that the ‘Islamic State of Khorasan’ (IS-K or ISIS-K) – the Afghan branch of the Daesh – is active again: supposedly, it’s planning a terror attack on the Kabul IAP. Surely enough, the IS-K was smashed by the ‘non-fighting’ Afghan Army and the USA, back in 2019, and is it at war with the Taliban, but well: when one simply lets thousands of jihadists out of prisons in Afghanistan (thank you, Pakistan!)… 

As always, all updates and corrections are most welcome. 

BTW, anybody got the e-mail address of the US command at Kabul IAP?

****

'History-buffs' might recall that the RAF run its '1st' (or second) 'airlift' ever - to Kabul, when evacuating about 600 women and children from there, in 1928-1929. (Second if one counts the airlift in support of the British troops besieged by the Ottomans at al-Qut, in Mesopotamia, in 1916.)

[fire4effect]

One thing I just recalled and I can't prove this actually happened but supposedly Bin Laden saw how we cut and ran after "Blackhawk Down" in Somalia in 93 and he believed and conceived the 9-11 attacks because he thought we would wholesale cut and run from the Mideast after the 9-11. What we do now could define who we are as a country in our eyes and the eyes of the world for years to come. I ask our leadership, are all we going to have for these people are "thought and prayers"?

[slc]

51 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

One thing I just recalled and I can't prove this actually happened but supposedly Bin Laden saw how we cut and ran after "Blackhawk Down" in Somalia in 93 and he believed and conceived the 9-11 attacks because he thought we would wholesale cut and run from the Mideast after the 9-11. What we do now could define who we are as a country in our eyes and the eyes of the world for years to come. I ask our leadership, are all we going to have for these people are "thought and prayers"?

Based on our current political leaderships COA?  A resounding yes.

Biden just wanted to pull the plug and wave the flag on 9/11 and say “see, my leadership brought all the troops home and ended the forever war”

He chose….poorly

[Blue]

16 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I have not seen the number 15,000 confirmed but from some of the articles I've read they are mixture of different folks and different reasons.  First and foremost, there are MANY NGOs that have been working in Afghanistan for years.  At one point there were 298 Afghan and 182 International NGOs working in Afghanistan.  There are also dual-citizens and American family members who were there helping family and with businesses.  There are VAST resources of some key minerals like Lithium so I would assume some of them were working for the various businesses in country. 

I was also surprised at the 15k number.  I knew there were NGOs operating in-country, but I would have assumed a much smaller footprint of American civilians. 

The sheer number of different NGOs is surprising as well.  

The size, impact, current status, and future of all the NGOs in Afghanistan is something I'd be interested to see. 

[busdriver]

Years ago, Biden wanted to declare victory and go home, then go back to kill terrorists when needed. That was when counter insurgency theory was all the rage.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[dream big]

8 hours ago, slc said:

Based on our current political leaderships COA?  A resounding yes.

Biden just wanted to pull the plug and wave the flag on 9/11 and say “see, my leadership brought all the troops home and ended the forever war”

His handlers chose….poorly

Fixed it for you