Finally done in Afghanistan?

[DirkDiggler]

On 8/28/2021 at 8:27 AM, Clark Griswold said:

Worth a listen, Angry Planet now 2 for 2

A Brief History of Lying About Afghanistan

 

Just listened to this and would highly recommend.

[DUNBAR]

Lots of great insights, Dirk.  I think where we will agree to disagree is:

1.  I suspect this will hurt our long-term national security more than we want to admit.  Securing the cooperation of NATO partners and regional partners in peacekeeping operations and small-to-mid-scale conflicts is going to be more challenging.  This was a truly embarrassing sequence of events, and our friends and allies are giving us a well-deserved WTF.  Can you imagine trying to depose the next Saddam or Al Qaeda?  "Hey!  Who's with us?  France?  Brits?  Canada?  C'mon everybody!  Follow us!  Guys?  Hello?"

2. I harbor no illusions a president will ever resign (unless the impeachment votes are there).  But I do wonder how catastrophic something can be before Senators and Congressmen gently nudge a president out the door.  

3.  I certainly don't expect our government to know exactly where every American is or was in a place like AFG, but if you followed the numbers coming from the administration, it was borderline absurd.  How many Americans were there in mid-August?  4,000?  8,000?  12,000?  Who the heck knows?

4.  I don't believe this failure is comparable to Pearl Harbor, or Desert One, or Beirut, or any of the others.  So many of those were diabolical surprise attacks, or immediate, short-term military setbacks.  AFG was such a series of appalling failures that it's little wonder the conservative blogosphere is half-jokingly accusing the administration of working directly for China.  This was simply horrible.

In the end, though, history never seems to follow that predictable, logical arc we expect it to.

[ecugringo]

Moving forward what will be interesting to watch.

 

1. NATO:  Will the alliance hold strong or will there be more of a EU focus on cooperation?  Difficult to predict with Brexit and other Euro nations only being half in.

2.  Russia:  Will Putin test NATO/EU on Ukraine, Baltics, Poland?  Will Putin fill in a gap that the US leaves?   The former Soviet block nations were Trump fans.  Will they turn on Biden?

3.  China:  How hard do they push in the Pacific and Taiwan?  I think they have a small window to seize as much power as possible given their population structure.

4.  Islamic Fundamentalism:  There is a very strong push to move away from Oil.  Saudi Arabia is trying to diversify their economy but if Oil is no longer the global commodity it is today, what happens to the Gulf states?  The younger generation will have a bleak future if they can't bet on oil.  With the Taliban supported by China holding strong, will many youths look to AFG to be radicalized again?  They can spin their misfortunes on the West for their lost desire for oil.

[JimNtexas]

“ No US presidential administration has collapsed/resigned for a large military failure, attack, …”.

Tell that to President Carter.

 

Also

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42217/huge-taliban-parade-features-throngs-of-u-s-bought-vehicles-and-a-black-hawk-helicopter

 

[DirkDiggler]

44 minutes ago, DUNBAR said:

Lots of great insights, Dirk.  I think where we will agree to disagree is:

1.  I suspect this will hurt our long-term national security more than we want to admit.  Securing the cooperation of NATO partners and regional partners in peacekeeping operations and small-to-mid-scale conflicts is going to be more challenging.  This was a truly embarrassing sequence of events, and our friends and allies are giving us a well-deserved WTF.  Can you imagine trying to depose the next Saddam or Al Qaeda?  "Hey!  Who's with us?  France?  Brits?  Canada?  C'mon everybody!  Follow us!  Guys?  Hello?"

2. I harbor no illusions a president will ever resign (unless the impeachment votes are there).  But I do wonder how catastrophic something can be before Senators and Congressmen gently nudge a president out the door.  

3.  I certainly don't expect our government to know exactly where every American is or was in a place like AFG, but if you followed the numbers coming from the administration, it was borderline absurd.  How many Americans were there in mid-August?  4,000?  8,000?  12,000?  Who the heck knows?

4.  I don't believe this failure is comparable to Pearl Harbor, or Desert One, or Beirut, or any of the others.  So many of those were diabolical surprise attacks, or immediate, short-term military setbacks.  AFG was such a series of appalling failures that it's little wonder the conservative blogosphere is half-jokingly accusing the administration of working directly for China.  This was simply horrible.

In the end, though, history never seems to follow that predictable, logical arc we expect it to.

Fair enough, I still like to think people can respectfully talk disagree, even in this day and age.  To your point #2 though, I'd have a follow up.  I hold/have very little for anything any member in Congress says about Afghanistan for the simple fact that most of them (too lazy to look up the exact number, but I know its small) have abdicated their collective duty to declare war. 

  Almost none of them were in Congress in 2001 and voted for the AUMF that put our guys into Afghanistan in the first place.  So they all sit and make the rounds of the talking heads on whatever flavor of network they like, without being held accountable to their constituents for their views/beliefs on keeping us in combat.  I'd have a lot more respect for the institution if there was a large scale push to re-visit the AUMF, declare war on the Taliban, or anything that puts them officially on the board with a vote that says they either support or do not support the war in Afghanistan.  

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

“ No US presidential administration has collapsed/resigned for a large military failure, attack, …”.

Tell that to President Carter.

 

Also

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42217/huge-taliban-parade-features-throngs-of-u-s-bought-vehicles-and-a-black-hawk-helicopter

 

Carter had problems aside from Iran. Like gasoline shortages and a stagnant economy.

[8BC]

On 9/1/2021 at 7:39 PM, Chef16 said:

I can say with high confidence they're not going to fly again, let alone be moved from their current spot. 

This old H isn’t going anywhere. That #3 condition lever is feathered which matches the videos on news media showing the outside of the aircraft. I am willing to bet it has been like this quite some time, and none of the local talent has any idea why. NMC = 100% demilitarized. 

[Premo]

9 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

Also

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42217/huge-taliban-parade-features-throngs-of-u-s-bought-vehicles-and-a-black-hawk-helicopter

 

Those look like nice targets to me if the Taliban sends any trouble our way again

[dream big]

10 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

“ No US presidential administration has collapsed/resigned for a large military failure, attack, …”.

Tell that to President Carter.

 

Also

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42217/huge-taliban-parade-features-throngs-of-u-s-bought-vehicles-and-a-black-hawk-helicopter

 

Carter was always honorable and tried to do the right thing.  Joe Biden is and has always been a thug.  Look at any number of videos insulting people, losing his temper, lying or just talking like he is out of the slums of Philly.  Joe will resign at a time and place dictated by his handlers.  
 

I am more disappointed that Austin and Miley haven’t resigned yet.  Perhaps they are being pulled by the same puppet strings.  

[Lawman]

Carter was always honorable and tried to do the right thing.  Joe Biden is and has always been a thug.  Look at any number of videos insulting people, losing his temper, lying or just talking like he is out of the slums of Philly.  Joe will resign at a time and place dictated by his handlers.  
 
I am more disappointed that Austin and Miley haven’t resigned yet.  Perhaps they are being pulled by the same puppet strings.  

Resignations at that level would run counter to the current narrative of, “most successful airlift in history,” that the administration has decided to run with.

I don’t think we will see a single person with stars fired over this.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, Premo said:

Those look like nice targets to me if the Taliban sends any trouble our way again

[DirkDiggler]

12 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

“ No US presidential administration has collapsed/resigned for a large military failure, attack, …”.

Tell that to President Carter.

 

Also

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42217/huge-taliban-parade-features-throngs-of-u-s-bought-vehicles-and-a-black-hawk-helicopter

 

LBJ ending his bid for re-election in '68 is probably the closest the US Executive branch has come to a president resigning due to a massive foreign policy or military failure (the Tet offensive in '68 being what the media latched onto).  LBJ also had several domestic issues brewing at the time that probably also played into his eventual decision to not seek re-election; tough to definitively say Vietnam was a single driving factor, though it was probably the biggest. 

[DirkDiggler]

13 hours ago, O Face said:

Great back and forth discussion here with some excellent historical perspective. This current administration may not throw in the towel, but I will be very surprised if there isn’t  a blood letting militarily. Nearly all of the examples given above had senior leaders get the axe or fall on their sword. I wonder how long until we see something similar?

At this point I'm not sure whether there will be any resignations among the top brass.  Several of the retired ones (McMaster and Petreaus specifically) associated with Afghanistan general officer leadership aren't currently taking any responsibility publicly.  Right now the narrative seems to be "we did our duty, served honorably, if anyone's to blame its our civilian leadership" (the last part isn't being said openly by the active duty guys).  There's probably an element of truth to this but in my opinion its far from the complete story.

  Interesting book to read on the evolution of American generalship since WWII is The Generals by Thomas Ricks.  The book only covers US Army generals and Ricks has some serious bias against the US military in many ways but its a very good read.  I'll let you draw your own conclusions on what he has to say regarding US military senior leadership but I found it to be a pretty well researched and written study.  

[ATIS]

15 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

Just listened to this and would highly recommend.

Recommend x 2

Also bought the book. Will be my rotator read headed over to the CAOC in a month. 

ATIS

[VMFA187]

9 hours ago, pawnman said:

Carter had problems aside from Iran. Like gasoline shortages and a stagnant economy.

I'd say the current administration has problems aside from the Afghanistan debacle. 

[fire4effect]

4 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Don't tease me. 😁

For now I think we need to be very judicious in our target selection and low key in our methods IMHO (AGM-114r9x) That said I know a good paint and body man.

Edited September 2, 2021 by fire4effect
clarite

[GrndPndr]

31 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Don't tease me. 😁

For now I think we need to be very judicious in our target selection and low key in our methods IMHO (AGM-114r9x) That said I know a good paint and body man.

"That said I know a good paint and body man."  <<Hope that isn't him!

This is the rumored ordnance used in the "Car-Full-O-Suicide-Vests" mission.

[arg]

Here's a picture of crew members volunteering to go make craters over there.

 

[HAWDINGL]

Why is anyone under the impression that we're not continuing to strike targets in Afghanistan every day like we have for the past 19+ years?
I have zero information, but I would be shocked to hear that at least MQ-9s aren't overhead 24/7 like they have been. 
That's not even counting the three-letter agencies and SOF on the ground that may or may not be there. (Again, I have zero information)

Maybe we are, but these drones aren’t based in Afghanistan, aren’t coming out of Iran, and probably not out of Pakistan (but wouldn’t know). So where are we launching these drones from? If I need to fly 8 hours to stay overhead for 4-5 hours to fly 8 hours back, is it really worth my time?

It seems a lot like we are back to pre-9/11 thinking where we want to close our eyes and believe that a problem half a world away can’t touch us, or that there isn’t any problem a few cruise missiles can’t fix.

Not to say I wanted to ever go back there, or send my friends or my children there. I just don’t see a drone war conducted from however far away being a legitimate long term strategy to be able to keep a terrorist organization and it’s friends from reaching out and touching us.


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[Danger41]

I’m confident we’re  done with the “M” portion of DIME over there for awhile. I’m sure there are some guarantees to the Taliban about how they protected the airport and we won’t bomb them back the Stone Age. And since our State Department did such a bang up job last time, it’s good to know they’re in the lead.

[Clayton Bigsby]

Obviously these guys got out, unlike a lot of other much less fortunate people, but the worldwide communications relays here sure are interesting.  

CCTs initially had the wrong freqs?
 

https://warisboring.com/21st-century-dunkirk-the-story-of-how-air-traffic-controllers-used-social-media-dms-to-help-rescue-friends-trapped-in-afghanistan/

[fire4effect]

There may be some countries to the north which while largely Islamic are much more secular and would really like to keep the Taliban from exporting their ideals to their country. Add a potentially very large aid package to one or more of these countries they may be willing to look the other way while we make life hard on the problem children to the south. I would hope so anyway.

[Springer]

Restaurants, stadiums, and stores across the nation are reserving areas to honor the 13 U.S. troops who were killed in Afghanistan last week after suicide bombers in Kabul blew up at least 170 people.

 

[AirGuardianC141747]

🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

[TinkRBell]

Inside the wire at KAIA. All the feels.

https://www.brokenjarhead.com/kabul-evac-video