COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[AirGuardianC141747]

“but I’m not synthesizing hours worth of material for your intellectual laziness.”
- SurelySerious

“But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.” - torqued

Come on maaaan! Let’s go outside and do some pushups maaaan! 

Someone here is a “Lying Dog Faced Pony Soldier!”

Sorry, I don’t mean that - but if you started from the beginning that it was hours and probably even more hours of research we could have circumnavigated this whole Flat Earth Worth of discussion. World is going to do what this diverse world is going to do. With no data to support, the world will not be like it was just over 2 months ago - the landscape will change and I wish the Best for all.

Let’s flatten that curve. At least that’s what the digital boards show on the highways here in NYC.

I’m out, I’ve got to go catch up on some NetFlix before I go do some gov sanctioned work. Now where did I put that El Presidente permission to travel slip... dang it!

Edited March 24, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[SurelySerious]

34 minutes ago, torqued said:

I might listen to it. I might not. But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.

I’ll accept that risk of public internet scourging. His podcast is genuinely intellectually interesting. Especially the recent episodes on the Covid situation. 

[SurelySerious]

Air Guardian, just got done mowing the lawn of this prison on planet bullshit in the galaxy of sucks camel dick for the fifth time this week...are you doing those millennial facetube push up challenges now? World may well end up different. 

[Negatory]

4 hours ago, FLEA said:

No but forced quarantine has held up to constitutional test before and philosophers have made successful moral arguments on suspending individual rights for broad public health. I believe typhoid Mary had to go through several constitutional test before she was ultimately suspended to an island for 27 years in quarantine. 

Also, we cannot underestimate the effect of culture on the success of far east nations to contain the virus. In general, people are for more cognoscente of their social reputation there and they are more likely to self enforce quarantines and personnel hygeine to save face. 

I'm as distraught over this as anyone. I literally just got to Europe eager to travel and I've been confined to my house the whole time except to go to work. I'm hoping we can come up with some smart mitigations within a month or so and return some freedom to people. 

I don’t disagree with you but forced quarantine of health individuals has never been constitutionally debated as far as I know.  That’s the weird thing about a disease that spreads asymptomatically.

[Sim]

6 hours ago, Sim said:

Some info out of NY is coming out.  Doc with about 350 patients that came with COVID19 symptoms without finding testing results hands them a bag with three different drugs (hydroxychloroquine, antibiotics and zinc). No one is hospitalized. Everyone survived.  No need for ICU bad or a respirator. 

In future, I would see the following everywhere; Patient with symptoms drive by the test site. Test results are done on site. Patient gets rx prescription and that's it. 

Country is open again. Problem solved. 

 

[AirGuardianC141747]

6 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

so you have no idea what you’re scoffing like a true ignorant jackass with things

you should figuratively read a fxxking book instead of sowing panic. 
 

The above was directed towards torqued who I don’t know, but I just figured I’d distract the situation so we could move on. Seems to have worked, maybe.... Oh my Lord, it’s looking at me now.

4 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Air Guardian, just got done mowing the lawn of this prison on planet bullshit in the galaxy of sucks camel dick for the fifth time this week...are you doing those millennial facetube push up challenges now? World may well end up different. 

Clever, you gave some thought to this one. I don’t deserve your attention or time but thank you. Not R. Lee Ermey worthy, but very good nonetheless. Not being sarcastic, I thoroughly enjoyed that, it made me raff.

Sorry, my generation (Gen X) is to blame for that facetube, selfie, GIG economy, etc. thing you mentioned. I don’t even have Facebook or Alexa but YouTube is great for fixing things. I’m not you, but I’d add podcast to your “Interests.” You seem like the most interesting man in the world. 

Now back to your normally scheduled program my apologies.
World is changing rapidly right now and it’s a forced learning curve with some major impacts globally. Sitting in this Hyatt in the New York City area, front desk said they just spiked to 40% capacity vs the average 15-20% of most hotels and they are thankful. Pictures are from Korea (2 days ago) and Hong Kong (dark 3 days ago, and we’re at least a month behind them), Europe is the same. Virus should worry me more perhaps but witnessing first hand cities around the world concerns me a bit. Obviously quick snapshots of my phone - just that lazy/not tech savvy anymore. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[AirGuardianC141747]

A few Pics doesn’t really justify the mass of iron laying around, but seeing this here, there at least everywhere I’ve been lately is surreal.

[drewpey]

It is temporarily painful because everyone is caught off guard.  Instead of trying to force our way back to what was normal, I think we should consider what wasn't necessary in the first place.  I welcome the potential for change of shifting away from several boomer-era institutional inertias...we might realize that we don't need to sit around offices for 5 days a week, 9 hours a day staring at a computer when the work could be done faster at home with a decent computer and internet connection.  Also I don't want to go through an entire store to pick up one thing...bring it to me at the curb or deliver to my house?  Yes please.  Businesses might start actually refilling hand sanitizers, taking the time to clean the bathrooms and people may even start washing their hands more often.  I might not have to stand behind a line of old people at the store paying cash and writing checks at the store if they learn to use a NFC payment for fear of their life.  We might care that those prepping our food have adequate sick leave so they aren't pressured to work sick.  We might care that there are social safety nets for mass layoffs.  We might care that there is a strong healthcare system that is there to support a significant event like this.  Or we can just act like this isn't a big deal...it's the last time something like this is going to happen, and go back to work while people around us die.

[AirGuardianC141747]

10 minutes ago, drewpey said:

It is temporarily painful because everyone is caught off guard.  Instead of trying to force our way back to what was normal, I think we should consider what wasn't necessary in the first place.  I welcome the potential for change of shifting away from several boomer-era institutional inertias...we might realize that we don't need to sit around offices for 5 days a week, 9 hours a day staring at a computer when the work could be done faster at home with a decent computer and internet connection. 

This is exactly where the rubber is meeting the road right now regarding change. Forced back to telecommute/video teleconferencing at an accelerated rate. Companies quickly invested in the software and business sector will come back regarding travel meetings but not nearly as strong. It was going to happen anyway and now the real estate is truly the home. The brick and mortar will decrease as it is required no longer. Probably some good sized tremors if the bean counters really do their homework.

[SurelySerious]

1 hour ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

The above was directed towards torqued who I don’t know, but I just figured I’d distract the situation so we could move on. Seems to have worked, maybe.... Oh my Lord, it’s looking at me now.

Understood, and appreciated your humor.  Thanks for the surreal pics.

[Bigred]

4 hours ago, Sim said:

 

I read Hydroxy and immediately thought of this. I can see the ads now.

"Sick, feeling wheezy, but you're also a fatty and need to drop 184 pounds? Have I got a deal for you!"

[MechGov]

[AirGuardianC141747]

2 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Understood, and appreciated your humor.  Thanks for the surreal pics.

Bud, what are you doing up? I am in New York City and Leadership is going nuts. I hope your in a better place than here.

On a good note: Bailout - Deal has been agreed upon 3AM / 25 Mar eastern of course.

So we have that going for us, which is nice!

You really did make my day with the millennial camel stuff, fell out of my chair! That was quality enlightenment. Thanks!

The memes coming out are a good change vs mental strain. Thanks to everyone, and no one is being mean. We just have to drive on and have a laugh for our own sake. We all understand the issue at hand is tough to say the least.

Edited March 25, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[SurelySerious]

4 hours ago, Sim said:

 

 

31 minutes ago, Bigred said:

I read Hydroxy and immediately thought of this. I can see the ads now.

"Sick, feeling wheezy, but you're also a fatty and need to drop 184 pounds? Have I got a deal for you!"

BigRed at least your hydroxy word association was something meant for human consumption. 

 

This couple in Arizona, however, heard the talk of Chloroquine (you know, like a medicine obviously to the rest of us) and took the aquarium cleaning agent chloroquine phosphate to try preventing the virus. Darwinian results. Really belongs in the WTF thread. 
 

[AirGuardianC141747]

Yeah, that went horribly wrong. Crazy people.

Edited March 25, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[SurelySerious]

13 minutes ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

You really did make my day with the millennial camel stuff, fell out of my chair! That was quality enlightenment. Thanks!

 

Hah, I can’t take for the prison/camel galaxy part. Ripped that from a dialogue in the movie Step Brothers when they get grounded or whatever. Glad you got a kick out of it though. 

[AirGuardianC141747]

31 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Hah, I can’t take for the prison/camel galaxy part. Ripped that from a dialogue in the movie Step Brothers when they get grounded or whatever. Glad you got a kick out of it though. 

Still makes laugh, original craft or not, very well done. 
I have to sleep before the NYC virus spike gets me while I’m tired.

I know this is sort of a repost, but I have added some thoughts - just digging deeper to the core of what may or may not come to fruition regarding impacts.

I unfortunately am leaning now towards the airlines changing their business model (nothing new I guess) to come back slowly to meet the demand accordingly by right shape sizing. No one knows for sure but you can better grasp of what’s going on at the core. The big hit is they are not the first ones actually doing this. Businesses are getting savvy with video teleconferencing (VTC) yet again and savings costs they literally forgot about, but now are reminded of. Let’s not forget having employees with home offices devalues brick and mortar real estate costs, building codes, no utilities, or TP, just a tax right off if possible. Travel, hotels per diem are operating costs. This generation craves such ease of life measures as it pseudo emulates a GIG economy on a smaller scale. Heck, honestly I would too. Work during the week when I want, obscure hours at my choice and have food delivery rather than stuck in a cubicle from 8-5 M-F or more when I did it (was 9-5), even weekend access to employees. This is dangerously efficient and I would be wrong to assume the bean counters aren’t crunching numbers right now. Service providers such as large restaurants which seems to be laying workers off vs furloughing them and bringing them back. Several individuals interviewed said they thought this was temporary and go back to work when it gets back up and running soon after the lock down was over here in NYC. Employers indicating right sizing, doing more with less. How could they not accomplish this with a surge of unemployed most likely willing to work even harder, longer and for less. We see plenty of this normal type of discussions/proposals on the APC forum as an example. Parents of 54 million children mandated for home schooling, picking up study materials and trying to work this out and work at home just announced. It’s far deeper than leisure travel taking a hit as people dip into savings if they have any. Every day counts but who knows where the break even point is to lift lockdown and get back to work too early and spread again. But they now have a deal on the Relief Bill / Bailout package is agreed upon. Hope it works well. 3AM Eastern 25 Mar. Spike seems to be coming. Hate this, just being frank.

 

 

 

[gearhog]

13 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

I’ll accept that risk of public internet scourging. His podcast is genuinely intellectually interesting. Especially the recent episodes on the Covid situation. 

Ok, brother. Here's the deal. I'm not trying to escalate the debate. I'm genuinely trying to wrap my head around this and open to any helpful information. I listened to the first 45 min of podcast #99 with Attia and Hotez. At around the 15 min mark, I came back here to the forum to see if I had the correct podcast.

Not trying to be a dick about this, and perhaps I missed some important information. Maybe I have a confirmation bias. I don't know. You were right, there was a lot of solid, intellectual information in that podcast, but there was absolutely ZERO that could be construed as positive points of optimism. Nothing that indicates we have a grasp on this thing or a workable solution.

Here's just a few notes I took from the doctor:

15:15: "Health systems are already stressed and I'm worried we could see a collapse in a couple weeks. I'm very concerned"

16:15: "The first breakdown is starting to happen with doctors and nurses exhausted and there seems to be a breakdown of trust"

17:45:"This is no longer a disease of the old and infirm. This buzz is catching on among young physicians, and it is highly destabilizing, and they're feeling abandoned."

21:20:  "I don't have an obvious solution to figuring this out (Regarding physician burn-out)"

28:00: "The most disturbing thing I have seen today s that half the hospitalizations are under 54, and about a 3rd between 20-44, and even some under 19."

32:15: "The Federal Government thinks this pandemic will last 18 months. I'm really doubtful we will have a vaccine in 18 months. I think this will be much longer than 18 months."

41:00 "Unless we can find a way to make our hospitals safe and take care of our health care providers, we are going to be in very deep trouble."

[SurelySerious]

That’s the one. #97 with Hotez goes a little further into some of the background science, but the more recent ones obviously update with newer data. 
 

I don’t think I would express my thoughts as optimism, however I found the detailed discussions on the different assumptions that go into the projections to be far more transparent than other sources. I also think it offers less hyperbole and emotion than other sources, which lends itself to more reasoning.  They’re concerned but pragmatic and try actually explaining concepts instead of dumbing it down. I think that’s what I find reassuring if you want to call it that.
 

Edit: recently he did a short post on social media where he talked about thinking of each area of the US as a locality instead of the US as a whole (which you can apply to Italy too: northern part far worse than Sicily for instance).  I think with that framework when you look at a lot of the stay-at-home measures being taken in places it has the potential to start flattening if you will. 
 

NYC is in a bad spot due to pop density and had a “head start” in cases on Ohio on the same day they shut their schools (both shut schools same day, but Ohio was not as far along in number of cases), but since then Ohio has a slightly shallower growth rate curve though early to call it optimistic. So to me, some of the measures seem to be starting to finally sink in.

 

Though we are sorely lacking on testing. We need to have enough test ability to be able to test a random sample of asymptomatic people to get an actual accurate assessment. Clearly not there. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by SurelySerious

[waveshaper]

The US Army is upping their game in response to the CORVID-19 threat. Will the USAF respond in a similar fashion, particularly our Contingency Response Forces?

"Army goes to HPCON Charlie across all bases, Delta for contingency forces;"

https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=&oq=upping+their+game&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADFA_enUS459US459&q=upping+their+game&gs_l=hp..0.0l2j0i22i30l3.0.0.0.396085...........0.W4sR2s7CNso#spf=1585152117028

[SurelySerious]

6 minutes ago, waveshaper said:

The US Army is upping their game in response to the CORVID-19 threat. Will the USAF respond in a similar fashion, particularly our Contingency Response Forces?

"Army goes to HPCON Charlie across all bases, Delta for contingency forces;"

https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=&oq=upping+their+game&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADFA_enUS459US459&q=upping+their+game&gs_l=hp..0.0l2j0i22i30l3.0.0.0.396085...........0.W4sR2s7CNso#spf=1585152117028

Discussion at wings with HPCON levels devolves into “but Charlie indicates a lack of mission effectiveness so we don’t want to do that,” so in some places they have made it Bravo with selective implementation of Charlie provisions. On one hand, I think the innovation if you will is good to do what applies to your location, but also question if leadership is afraid to accurately assess if indeed they are mission effective because of higher up perception. 
 

Edited March 25, 2020 by SurelySerious

[nsplayr]

22 hours ago, brickhistory said:

As I have stated, I don't have the answer, but my spidey-sense says literally crushing our economy is worse than this virus in the long term for our nation.

I mean I'm gonna go with the advice of epidemiologists and health security professionals...although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Just kidding, I stayed the f*ck home.

Our economy will recover from a relatively short-duration shutdown to combat a critical health crisis, especially with proper support from the government. What won't recover is people's lives that are lost if we disregard the advice of people who actually know what they're talking about.

[brickhistory]

40 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

 

Our economy will recover from a relatively short-duration shutdown to combat a critical health crisis, especially with proper support from the government. What won't recover is people's lives that are lost if we disregard the advice of people who actually know what they're talking about.

Riiiiighht….

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-testing-new-york-state-20200322-zvzog4p2yvh4bpvhbd5p5nxlly-story.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/24/steve-sisolak-nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-c/

 

 

[waveshaper]

5 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Discussion at wings with HPCON levels devolves into “but Charlie indicates a lack of mission effectiveness so we don’t want to do that,” so in some places they have made it Bravo with selective implementation of Charlie provisions. On one hand, I think the innovation if you will is good to do what applies to your location, but also question if leadership is afraid to accurately assess if indeed they are mission effective because of higher up perception. 
 

"Military Raises Health Protection Level Globally, Halts Deployments"

- "The Defense Department raised its Health Protection Condition level at every military installation globally to the second highest level as the new coronavirus outbreak spreads and more personnel test positive for the COVID-19 virus."

- "The Pentagon also ordered all U.S. troops abroad to freeze movements for 60 days, meaning those currently deployed or at home preparing to deploy will stay in their current positions for the duration of the order."

- Etc, etc, etc.

https://www.airforcemag.com/military-raises-health-protection-level-globally-halts-deployments/

Edited March 25, 2020 by waveshaper

[brickhistory]

My humble appreciation for those deployed and were supposed to come home soon.

 

Nothing is a bigger kick in the morale junk than to be extended at the last minute.  Sorry, dudes/dudettes.