COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[jazzdude]

There's a balance between individual liberties and the needs of a functioning society. Generally, you have the full right to pursue life/liberty/happiness, so long as you aren't infringing on the right of others to pursue life/liberty/happiness.

A lot of the measures being implemented now for covid-19 are similar to the measures implemented during 1918 Spanish flu. So there's already precedent, and we've gotten through it. Also, the laws allowing quarantine are already on the books, and have been for almost a century.

What seems to be different is that long distance travel was much harder than it is now. People aren't staying home if they are sick, which is spreading the disease much faster.

On one hand, the right to individual liberty says that an infected/contagious person should be able to do whatever they want. On the other hand, an infected/contagious person spreading disease negatively impacts the right to life and happiness of other people if they are given the disease.

So where is the balance? Where should the line be drawn to balance individual liberties against the liberty/life of others?

[brickhistory]

So prisoners are being released due to the crowded conditions in a jail increasing the spread of this disease yet...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/to-enforce-coronavirus-distancing-police-say-arrests-are-last-resort/ar-BB11XppY?ocid=spartanntp

[gearhog]

51 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

So where is the balance? Where should the line be drawn to balance individual liberties against the liberty/life of others?

Great points and great questions. My concern is that these curtailing of liberties are so widely and immediately accepted. When it's needed, every instance should be scrutinized and required to have a detailed sunset provision with a very high threshold for renewal.

We need to be very wary of allowing rule by executive order (or rule by decree). Check out today's news from Hungary. WTF:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-in-hungary-viktor-orban-rules-by-decree-indefinitely.html

 

 

[gearhog]

7 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

So prisoners are being released due to the crowded conditions in a jail increasing the spread of this disease yet...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/to-enforce-coronavirus-distancing-police-say-arrests-are-last-resort/ar-BB11XppY?ocid=spartanntp

My longtime friend and neighbor is a vice cop for a medium sized city. Yesterday, his Chief told him to stop taking vacation days, and simply not come to work. He doesn't want any of his guys pursuing those types of crimes then showing up at the station to do the admin processes.

[DirkDiggler]

4 minutes ago, torqued said:

My longtime friend and neighbor is a vice cop for a medium sized city. Yesterday, his Chief told him to stop taking vacation days, and simply not come to work. He doesn't want any of his guys pursuing those types of crimes then showing up at the station to do the admin processes.

So long as you keep that purchase of Hos under 10 it’s party time!!  Unlike the quote/guidance from Full Metal Jacket, don’t bang the ones that cough.

[jazzdude]

Great points and great questions. My concern is that these curtailing of liberties are so widely and immediately accepted. When it's needed, every instance should be scrutinized and required to have a detailed sunset provision with a very high threshold for renewal.
We need to be very wary of allowing rule by executive order (or rule by decree). Check out today's news from Hungary. WTF:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-in-hungary-viktor-orban-rules-by-decree-indefinitely.html
 
 

Definitely agree on sunset provisions. The authority to quarantine is in law, activated by executive order. So in theory the other branches of government should act as the check/balance. But then again, Congress has been gridlocked for the better part of the decade, so, yeah.

[brickhistory]

1 hour ago, DirkDiggler said:

So long as you keep that purchase of Hos under 10 it’s party time!!  Unlike the quote/guidance from Full Metal Jacket, don’t bang the ones that cough.

It's just this kind of thinking and can-do spirit that got us through the Great Depression, Dubya-dubya two, and now the Black Death...

[uhhello]

There are informal "no contact unless felony level or above" orders for a lot of police departments.  

[gearhog]

Damn. Unreal. Chilling...

USS Teddy Roosevelt "urgently asking" for help.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6821571/TR-COVID-19-Assistance-Request.pdf

 

7. Conclusion. Decisive action is required. Removing the majority of personnel from a
deployed US. nuclear aircraft carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an
extraordinary measure. A portion of the crew (approximately 10%) would have to stay aboard to 

run the reactor plant, sanitize the ship, ensure security, and provide for contingency response to
emergencies. This is a necessary risk. It will enable the carrier and air wing to get back
underway as quickly as possible while ensuring the health and safety of our Sailors. Keeping
over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with
those Sailors entrusted to our care.

There are challenges associated with securing individualized lodging for our crew. This will
require a political solution but it is the right thing to do. We are not at war. Sailors do not need
to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to pr0perly take care of our most trusted asset our
Sailors.

Request all available resources to ?nd NAVADMIN and CDC compliant quarantine rooms for
my entire crew as soon as possible.

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by torqued

[HU&W]

If you’re interested in the laws for quarantine that some states are ignoring, they’re on the cdc website here. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html

[Bob Uecker]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/common-good-constitutionalism/609037/
 

A buddy and I have been talking about how the bad situation we are in is a breeding ground for the rise of bad ideas. Here is a Harvard professor literally suggesting fascism.

 

Not directly COVID-19 related, but still need to be wary.

[brabus]

11 hours ago, jazzdude said:

The authority to quarantine is in law, activated by executive order

To be clear, only authority to quarantine those who have been exposed. Prove I’ve been exposed and then you can legally quarantine me in my house. Until then, go fuck yourself, I’ll leave my house when I damn well please. Doesn’t mean I won’t be smart about it (6’ distancing, won’t go throw a block party, etc.) There are people saying we shouldn’t be allowed to go for a run or ride a bike; that’s the line they’ve fully crossed. 

[jazzdude]

Until then, go yourself, I’ll leave my house when I damn well please. Doesn’t mean I won’t be smart about it (6’ distancing, won’t go throw a block party, etc.) There are people saying we shouldn’t be allowed to go for a run or ride a bike; that’s the line they’ve fully crossed. 

That seems to be the challenge with this, not enough testing combined with a long incubation period where one could be infected/contagious before feeling sick and getting tested, which leads to the disease spreading.

As for being smart about it, it's why we can't have nice things. Lots of people out there aren't. Why not throw a block party? It's you're right to do what you want.

I'm in a locked down state (NJ). Still allowed to go out and run, leave the house, etc. But pretty much asked to avoid going out of you don't have to, and to not gather in large groups.

If the general public voluntarily stays in and minimizes going out except for essentials, we won't need heavy handed laws or executive orders to force it. But I'm not going to hold my breath.

[Bigred]

8 hours ago, wazzuPIC said:

If we're active duty can we write letters to an editor?  I'm feeling unusually compelled to highlight that f*ckstick's fascist ideas as such.

As long as you refrain from using your rank, affiliation with the military, or anything that would imply an endorsement or opinion of the military, go for it. 

[MCO]

6 hours ago, brabus said:

To be clear, only authority to quarantine those who have been exposed. Prove I’ve been exposed and then you can legally quarantine me in my house. Until then, go fuck yourself, I’ll leave my house when I damn well please. Doesn’t mean I won’t be smart about it (6’ distancing, won’t go throw a block party, etc.) There are people saying we shouldn’t be allowed to go for a run or ride a bike; that’s the line they’ve fully crossed. 

This is exactly why I think the US will be hardest hit. Our freedom is awesome, but plenty of people will say "I thought this was America, I'll do what I want!" I agree with you that we need to protect our freedom from being attacked, but I also think we are going to pay a price for that. China can effectively fight it because they just point a gun at everyone and say don't leave your house. Not what I want, but it works. 

 

Just to be clear, I think the price is worth it in the end.

[Kiloalpha]

Just an update, girlfriend has strong chest pain/shortness of breath about a week after the fever/aches/chills ceased.

Took her to the ER, and apparently it’s becoming very common in people who kick the COVID and don’t have pneumonia. The virus causes inflammation along the lung wall, and (allegedly) strikes a week or so later for some because the body is trying to repair that damage. She was prescribed muscle relaxers and she says it’s the first time she’s had a full breath in a long time.

Just in case one of you guys see/experience something similar in a family or friend.

[GrndPndr]

17 hours ago, torqued said:

Damn. Unreal. Chilling...

USS Teddy Roosevelt "urgently asking" for help.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6821571/TR-COVID-19-Assistance-Request.pdf

 

7. Conclusion. Decisive action is required. Removing the majority of personnel from a
deployed US. nuclear aircraft carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an
extraordinary measure. A portion of the crew (approximately 10%) would have to stay aboard to 

run the reactor plant, sanitize the ship, ensure security, and provide for contingency response to
emergencies. This is a necessary risk. It will enable the carrier and air wing to get back
underway as quickly as possible while ensuring the health and safety of our Sailors. Keeping
over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with
those Sailors entrusted to our care.

There are challenges associated with securing individualized lodging for our crew. This will
require a political solution but it is the right thing to do. We are not at war. Sailors do not need
to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to pr0perly take care of our most trusted asset our
Sailors.

Request all available resources to ?nd NAVADMIN and CDC compliant quarantine rooms for
my entire crew as soon as possible.

 

Huh, an 0-6.

CINCPAC from CMDR ROOSEVELT

AM IMMEDIATELY TAKING SAILORS OFF THE SHIP TO QUARANTINE.  ALL MEASURES TAKEN FOR SECURITY AND DISINFECTION OF SHIP.

HAVE NICE DAY.

[pawnman]

11 hours ago, MCO said:

This is exactly why I think the US will be hardest hit. Our freedom is awesome, but plenty of people will say "I thought this was America, I'll do what I want!" I agree with you that we need to protect our freedom from being attacked, but I also think we are going to pay a price for that. China can effectively fight it because they just point a gun at everyone and say don't leave your house. Not what I want, but it works. 

 

Just to be clear, I think the price is worth it in the end.

About China effectively fighting it...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

And it's not clear that all this quarantining is going to do anything except push the bulk of the infections to the right.  CDC says we're 12-18 months from a vaccine... Anyone want to stay locked in their house for a year?

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b?fbclid=IwAR3_PJfSdmpVrYEi0W4YWt3sJH-rw-WbA4nHB8In36S1lXq274ODFqVcR-M

Edited April 1, 2020 by pawnman

[jazzdude]

And it's not clear that all this quarantining is going to do anything except push the bulk of the infections to the right.  CDC says we're 12-18 months from a vaccine... Anyone want to stay locked in their house for a year?

My understanding is that pushing it to the right has been (and still is) the goal, i.e. Flattening the curve so limited health care resource's aren't overwhelmed.

If done right, it hopefully buys us time to ramp up medical capacity (including equipment like ventilators and PPE for medical workers) and increasing the availability of testing, and allowing relaxing how aggressive we are with social distancing/staying home when you aren't sick/reopening businesses, etc. Then again, this assumes Congress, the president, and the state governors working together quickly to ease the burden on the general population.

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 

My understanding is that pushing it to the right has been (and still is) the goal, i.e. Flattening the curve so limited health care resource's aren't overwhelmed.

If done right, it hopefully buys us time to ramp up medical capacity (including equipment like ventilators and PPE for medical workers) and increasing the availability of testing, and allowing relaxing how aggressive we are with social distancing/staying home when you aren't sick/reopening businesses, etc. Then again, this assumes Congress, the president, and the state governors working together quickly to ease the burden on the general population.

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.

Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.

The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

[herkbier]

So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.

I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 

so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?

And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right? 😉

 

[daynightindicator]

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.
Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.
The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

I think the idea is to flatten the curve to buy time, which if used properly to build up testing and acute care capacity, allows you to move back into the “containment” phase where you can quickly identify new cases/clusters, and isolate before they cause exponential growth.

Gradual reintroduction of social freedoms could be applied along with improved testing and treatment, to essentially play “whack-a-mole” as cases pop up until a vaccine is developed.

The article (written by a mathematician, not an epidemiologist or virologist) only makes a passing reference to those changes, noting that they should be specified in modeling (which I would think they are if you look into the 1s and 0s of the inputs to the models).

The main thesis (deferring spikes if social distancing is the only factor in the model) is valid but doesn’t acknowledge broader strategies.

[Bob Uecker]

48 minutes ago, herkbier said:

So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.

I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 

so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?

And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right? 😉

 

Getting on the back end of the curve, with less new cases and deaths per day. Having rapid testing everywhere to clear people back to work. Maybe a decent treatment program (anti-malaria drugs, antibodies, etc). Probably partial openings, restaurants/bars are screwed for a while longer, schools are done till August. Vaccine is at least a year out.

[Skitzo]

So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.
I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 
so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?
And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right?
 

This is just a rolling ETIC anyway you slice it.

[jazzdude]

My uneducated opinion? The next event based trigger probably would be X ventilators on hand, plans to surge ICU and in-patient care (alternate locations and staffing), and rebuild our stock of PPE for medical workers.

At least rebuilding the stock of PPE should allow at least outpatient surgeries/procedures to resume. However, the supply chains seem to have taken a big hit, with a lot of production happening overseas, and producing countries holding on to their production to help at home first before exporting.

I've got family in the medical field. My brother (anesthesiologist), said his hospital has already gone from changing their respirator for every patient (prior to the whole COVID-19 problem) to "here's your one respirator, keep it in your locker when you go home, make it last as long as you can." And that's across the board at his hospital, not just for COVID-19 patients, and there's no approved procedure to sterilize/disinfect the respirator (since it's supposed to be a one time use item). It'd be like the AF saying "OBOGS is good, there's only a small risk of physiological incidents, so press on..." except grounding the fleet is off the table, there can be no safety stand down, and in fact, ops tempo is expected to surge for the foreseeable future, crew rest is waived, so suck it up.

A nurse catching COVID-19 means they're out for 14-30 days, and each day they are out means 6-10 patients that day can't be supported (or 2-3 ICU patients). I'd imagine the number is roughly the same for doctors. So keeping them healthy (through triage, deferring care that can be deferred, and proper PPE) keeps them in the fight, not just for COVID, but for any procedure that can't be deferred.

Right now, we are just delaying the big fight until we can mass our forces appropriately. However, just like in war, it doesn't really matter if we win battles now if we don't have the logistical support to sustain the fight and win the war. So hopefully we are using this time now to appropriately mass our resources and not get caught with our pants down when the fighting starts in earnest.