COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[MCO]

  On 4/1/2020 at 9:45 PM, pawnman said:

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.

Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.

The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

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The other advantage of flattening the curve other than what’s already stated is the effect of herd immunity, which is more effective if you already have a population of immune people.

[Seriously]

  On 4/1/2020 at 9:45 PM, pawnman said:

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.

Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.

The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

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These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Seriously

[M2]

  On 4/2/2020 at 12:48 PM, Seriously said:

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

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Been watching that model for a while, it's probably one of the best ones around.  You can see each individual state via the pull-down menu at top.  Some are quite scary! 

[pawnman]

  On 4/2/2020 at 12:48 PM, Seriously said:

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

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Perhaps, but it'll only be the top until we start relaxing social distancing again.  At some point, people will have to be allowed out of the house... And when that happens, there will be another spike in positive cases.

[daynightindicator]

  On 4/2/2020 at 6:54 PM, pawnman said:

Perhaps, but it'll only be the top until we start relaxing social distancing again.  At some point, people will have to be allowed out of the house... And when that happens, there will be another spike in positive cases.

Again, buying time could get us back to, and remain in, a containment phase.

I’m not a huge fan of relying on non peer-reviewed articles written by non-experts on the webs but if that’s your jam, here is another Medium article describing how a broader strategy would play out after a hard-core mitigation phase.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

And here’s a published, peer-reviewed piece on how cities who cracked down hard and fast during the 1918 pandemic rebounded faster economically than those who resisted tough restrictions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

[the g-man]

  On 4/1/2020 at 12:08 PM, GrndPndr said:

Huh, an 0-6.
CINCPAC from CMDR ROOSEVELT
AM IMMEDIATELY TAKING SAILORS OFF THE SHIP TO QUARANTINE.  ALL MEASURES TAKEN FOR SECURITY AND DISINFECTION OF SHIP.
HAVE NICE DAY.

Well in standard pentagon tradition, the one who goes against the machine gets removed from command


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351


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[Orbit]

  On 4/2/2020 at 9:31 PM, the g-man said:

Well in standard pentagon tradition, the one who goes against the machine gets removed from command


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351


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Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

[the g-man]

  On 4/2/2020 at 9:47 PM, TheLaughingCow said:

Article just has the "loss of trust" boilerplate stated as the reason he was relieved.  Presumably because he went public with his request for assistance?

Yes. Politco has more


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/navy-fires-aircraft-carrier-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-virus-outbreak-162225


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[brickhistory]

Big Gray/Green/Blue does not like to be embarrassed.

 

[Stoker]

He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

[DirkDiggler]

All, 

  Just a general info note, but with so many people out of work due to the COVID situation, food banks are getting overwhelmed by the vast increase in unemployed people needing food.  Most of the regulars on here (including me) are pretty lucky to have stable government employment/paychecks.  Great way to help out your local community is donating to your local food bank if you’re able.

[billy pilgrim]

  On 4/2/2020 at 11:32 PM, Stoker said:

He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

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This.

[LookieRookie]

  On 4/2/2020 at 10:22 PM, brickhistory said:

Big Gray/Green/Blue does not like to be embarrassed.

 

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And just a reminder you are just an expendable number.

[Prosuper]

  On 4/2/2020 at 11:32 PM, Stoker said:

He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

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Probably found out his next assignment was some desk in the Pentagon in a windowless room. Fell on his sword for his sailors.

[Blue]

  On 4/2/2020 at 9:55 PM, Orbit said:

Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

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Yeah, this.  Sounded like it wasn't so much the fact that he sent the letter asking for help.  That was OK.

Everything I've read makes it sound like they guy sent it via unclassified channels, to his boss on the To: line and everyone and their mother on cc:  That's what got him fired.

[FLEA]

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

 

Another cool data driven resource shows the majority of people are complying with orders to stay in. Some interesting observations to be made here by comparing countries or states. 

[waveshaper]

  On 4/2/2020 at 9:55 PM, Orbit said:

Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

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IMHO, the main strategic asset on aircraft carriers are its aircraft: Can US Aircraft Carriers still launch aircraft (particularly fixed wing jets) while sitting idle - pierside/minus 75/% of its crew? If not - then maybe they should've launched all their aircraft while the carrier was still at sea/underway (to relocate these assets to a useful location/airfield) before the carrier docked and the crew was overrun by COVID-19.

Latest photo/USS Theodore Roosevelt docked in Guam; 

[M2]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/04/aircraft-carrier-captain-fired-poor-judgement-over-coronavirus-letter/164336/

[Tank]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/5104928002
 

Not true...

Edited April 3, 2020 by Tank

[GKinnear]

  On 4/3/2020 at 5:07 PM, Tank said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/5104928002
 

Not true...

 

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Tank, check the date...April Fools was 2 days ago

[Tank]

  On 4/3/2020 at 5:34 PM, GKinnear said:

 

Tank, check the date...April Fools was 2 days ago

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You are correct, President Trump cannot enact the Stafford Act.  That’s what I originally said - “not true”.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2153UR

[pawnman]

  On 4/3/2020 at 1:33 AM, Blue said:

Yeah, this.  Sounded like it wasn't so much the fact that he sent the letter asking for help.  That was OK.

Everything I've read makes it sound like they guy sent it via unclassified channels, to his boss on the To: line and everyone and their mother on cc:  That's what got him fired.

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So sending it on official Navy channels, to Navy officials, is "too public"?

Or they think it should have been on SIPR... Like they were going to disguise an aircraft carrier parking at Guam for two weeks?

I think every one of us just got yet another glimpse into how expendable military members are to the political class.

[M2]

  On 4/4/2020 at 3:47 AM, pawnman said:

So sending it on official Navy channels, to Navy officials, is "too public"?

Or they think it should have been on SIPR... Like they were going to disguise an aircraft carrier parking at Guam for two weeks?

I think every one of us just got yet another glimpse into how expendable military members are to the political class.

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Per the SECNAV...

  Quote

"But there is a larger strategic context, one full of national security imperatives, of which all our commanders must all be aware today. While we may not be at war in a traditional sense, neither are we truly at peace. Authoritarian regimes are on the rise. Many nations are reaching, in many ways, to reduce our capacity to accomplish our national goals. This is actively happening every day. It has been a long time since the Navy and Marine Corps team has faced this broad array of capable global strategic challengers. A more agile and resilient mentality is necessary, up and down the chain of command."

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And...

  Quote

"It is important to understand that the Strike Group Commander, the CO’s immediate boss, is embarked on the Theodore Roosevelt, right down the passageway from him. The letter was sent over non- secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the Fleet."

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https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=112537

To summarize, he had better choices...

[FLEA]

  On 4/4/2020 at 4:34 AM, M2 said:

Per the SECNAV...

And...

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=112537

To summarize, he had better choices...

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I think there is more to the story but the fact that his immediate boss is on the boat with him leads me to believe that he was not getting the support he needed. At the end of the day though I think the smudge is still on the Navy's face. This dude was cheered off his boat and in the realm of public opinion he is a hero. He will find plenty of post retirement oppurtunities. But the common sentiment amongst Navy sailors now is that their service doesn't have their back, and that weighs on their morale and retention. 

 

[M2]

  On 4/4/2020 at 4:39 AM, FLEA said:

I think there is more to the story but the fact that his immediate boss is on the boat with him leads me to believe that he was not getting the support he needed. At the end of the day though I think the smudge is still on the Navy's face. This dude was cheered off his boat and in the realm of public opinion he is a hero. He will find plenty of post retirement oppurtunities. But the common sentiment amongst Navy sailors now is that their service doesn't have their back, and that weighs on their morale and retention. 

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Who the hell knows?  I don't think it was a bright idea to go public with his email, whether by him or one of the many people cc'd on it (another not-so-bright idea).  Embarrassing your chain of command is never going to help your career (and as a carrier commander, he had some career left).

I suspect there's more to this story that we'll never hear, but just because the crew cheered him on his departure doesn't necessarily mean he was a great skipper.  Hell, the mere fact that they're all jammed together to do so when there's allegedly so many COVID-19 cases aboard makes me wonder about the situation in general!