COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, Stoker said:

15,000 families in a city of 1.5 million want food assistance, not necessarily need. It's like when Florida has the National Guard passing out MREs and bags of ice during a hurricane; people will line up for hours for free stuff even though the Publix right behind the distribution site is open and stocked. 

Your privilege is showing

[brabus]

16 hours ago, drewpey said:

Our healthcare system sucks as it is...you can't just take a punch from something like this and expect things to be fine just because "muh economy".

Well we’re #11 on the list of deaths per million, so our healthcare system is doing better than 9 other first world countries (some of whom are 2x and 3x our death rate and are “beacons of socialized medicine”), plus Iran. We’re likely also doing better than several other countries who’s reporting is questionable (China, DPRK, etc.) Now I’m not saying our system is perfect or even “awesome,” but it’s certainly doesn’t “suck.” Healthcare workers are being laid off and temporary hospitals are not being used/torn down, all while leaders around the world walk back their doom-and-gloom predictions. 

The data simply doesn’t support many of the draconian measures, notably the ones crushing the world economies. It certainly supports measured responses like quarantine for high risk individuals (or those who cannot avoid contact with them), isolation for those who are sick, social distancing, etc. It doesn’t support Lowe’s closing the garden center or shutting down John’s toy store (where people could still shop while maintaining social distancing). It doesn’t support telling people they can’t ride their bike outside, go for a walk, or take a drive. The level of police power were seeing does not match the numbers (especially when considering the margin of error in the models). Anecdotally, our governor has made every decision based off data that has been wrong by a factor of 2, since day one through this week...a solid month+ of decisions based on wildly inaccurate data. He’s not alone.

Edit: This a holistic perspective, I acknowledge if you break this down granularly, some places are far more affected than others. But that doesn’t change the overarching reaction as a country/world towards this thing. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by brabus

[Mark1]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

Well we’re #11 on the list of deaths per million, so our healthcare system is doing better than 9 other first world countries (some of whom are 2x and 3x our death rate and are “beacons of socialized medicine”), plus Iran. We’re likely also doing better than several other countries who’s reporting is questionable (China, DPRK, etc.) Now I’m not saying our system is perfect or even “awesome,” but it’s certainly doesn’t “suck.” Healthcare workers are being laid off and temporary hospitals are not being used/torn down, all while leaders around the world walk back their doom-and-gloom predictions. 

The data simply doesn’t support many of the draconian measures, notably the ones crushing the world economies. It certainly supports measured responses like quarantine for high risk individuals (or those who cannot avoid contact with them), isolation for those who are sick, social distancing, etc. It doesn’t support Lowe’s closing the garden center or shutting down John’s toy store (where people could still shop while maintaining social distancing). It doesn’t support telling people they can’t ride their bike outside, go for a walk, or take a drive. The level of police power were seeing does not match the numbers (especially when considering the margin of error in the models). Anecdotally, our governor has made every decision based off data that has been wrong by a factor of 2, since day one through this week...a solid month+ of decisions based on wildly inaccurate data. He’s not alone.

Edit: This a holistic perspective, I acknowledge if you break this down granularly, some places are far more affected than others. But that doesn’t change the overarching reaction as a country/world towards this thing. 

The data isn't off by a factor of two.  In the only parameter that we can control, it's been off by roughly 5%.  Pretty damn good when estimating how 325 million people and a novel virus are going to behave.  Given the logarithmic dynamics, that manifests itself in large death deltas, but the meaningful parameter is actually quite accurate.

A page back you've got a dude presenting numbers of other cause mortality to suggest that this thing hasn't been a big deal.  Never mind that he's comparing annual flu deaths to 1 month worth of this.  Yes at this instant, after the 'draconian' measures, after the economy was shut down, after the schools were closed, it's been manageable.  Without those things the same models that have proven themselves to be accurate to within 5% of reality would predict that we'd be about 14 days away from a week in which 10% of the U.S. population would be infected.  New infections, not total.  30 million infections over the course of a week at a time when the healthcare system would have already been crippled.

You'd have people dying of appendicitis in the parking lots of hospitals.  Do you think Lowe's garden center and your local Applebee's would be turning record profits in that environment?  Or would they have voluntarily closed up shop given that half of their workforce was out sick and 0% of their customer base was willing to venture outside?

If you could trust people to handle things intelligently on an individual basis then you wouldn't need to shut down toy stores or close off non-essential sections of essential businesses.  But given that you get a reasonable portion of the population complaining to the people who saved their lives that they don't see people dying in the street an therefore it was never a big deal, it's hard to have faith that they'd handle it intelligently.  As a result, you get the default position to just shut it down, because a large portion of the population can't operate on nuance.

[brabus]

33 minutes ago, Mark1 said:

The data isn't off by a factor of two

It is in my state, that’s a fact. And that’s what the governor has been using to drive decisions. 
 

33 minutes ago, Mark1 said:

In the only parameter that we can control, it's been off by roughly 5%

1) Nobody knows how many, but there are people who had it and aren’t counted because they never went to the hospital and got a test. That number is probably a ton higher than people give credit. To this point, it’s fairly accurate on capturing who has died from it, but very inaccurate on who has recovered (i.e. a critical piece of the denominator in this equation).
2) Any swinging dick who dies from anything that even hints of respiratory, etc. is deemed corona as the cause, even without a test/confirmation. 
3) People in hospice are dying and being counted in the deaths. 
 

Those facts above are enough to highlight how unknown the true rate is. I’m willing to bet our death rate tracking is a hell of a lot more than a 5% error.

34 minutes ago, Mark1 said:

As a result, you get the default position to just shut it down, because a large portion of the population can't operate on nuance.

Or you could put out things like violating 6 ft or walking around public while actively sick gets you fined. Only close business that are unable to operate while also adhering to social distancing. Do that and you have means to throw the book at the idiots while not fucking over the economic and mental welfare of the tens of millions who won’t fuck those things away. Guess I’ll never be a senior leader in big blue, because I certainly don’t fit the mold of lazy leadership that hits the easy button and hides behind a bullshit excuse like “but the masses...”

[FLEA]

Since this is getting heated let's all crack a beer and talk about something we can all agree on; like how that fucking bitch Carol Baskins killed her husband!

[General Chang]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Since this is getting heated let's all crack a beer and talk about something we can all agree on; like how that ing bitch Carol Baskins killed her husband!

I think Carole’s first husband is still alive and living off-the-grid in Central America with the $15M in gold and silver he “stashed” in various locations down there.

[FUSEPLUG]

[tac airlifter]

6 hours ago, uhhello said:

Your privilege is showing

Lol, who talks like that?  Lame.

[uhhello]

52 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

Lol, who talks like that?  Lame.

Oh we're being serious here?

[skybert]

7 hours ago, brabus said:

Well we’re #11 on the list of deaths per million, so our healthcare system is doing better than 9 other first world countries (some of whom are 2x and 3x our death rate and are “beacons of socialized medicine”), plus Iran. We’re likely also doing better than several other countries who’s reporting is questionable (China, DPRK, etc.) Now I’m not saying our system is perfect or even “awesome,” but it’s certainly doesn’t “suck.” Healthcare workers are being laid off and temporary hospitals are not being used/torn down, all while leaders around the world walk back their doom-and-gloom predictions. 

The data simply doesn’t support many of the draconian measures, notably the ones crushing the world economies. It certainly supports measured responses like quarantine for high risk individuals (or those who cannot avoid contact with them), isolation for those who are sick, social distancing, etc. It doesn’t support Lowe’s closing the garden center or shutting down John’s toy store (where people could still shop while maintaining social distancing). It doesn’t support telling people they can’t ride their bike outside, go for a walk, or take a drive. The level of police power were seeing does not match the numbers (especially when considering the margin of error in the models). Anecdotally, our governor has made every decision based off data that has been wrong by a factor of 2, since day one through this week...a solid month+ of decisions based on wildly inaccurate data. He’s not alone.

Edit: This a holistic perspective, I acknowledge if you break this down granularly, some places are far more affected than others. But that doesn’t change the overarching reaction as a country/world towards this thing. 

I am dumbfounded at how the police have turned against the citizens here in Michigan. I’ve lost all respect.

 

[dream big]

8 minutes ago, skybert said:

I am dumbfounded at how the police have turned against the citizens here in Michigan. I’ve lost all respect.

 

This is the state that elected Rashida Talib, you surprised? 

[Bob Uecker]

On a good note, rate of new infections nationwide has been slowly dropping, and deaths have been down for the third day in a row.

[M2]

[drewpey]

just a normal flu folks...lets open things back up!

[AirGuardianC141747]

Good thing my wife doesn’t eat pork and there is none in the house, but before you judge, bacon does not count. Mmmm Bacon!

[Mark1]

8 hours ago, brabus said:

It is in my state, that’s a fact. And that’s what the governor has been using to drive decisions. 

No. You're talking about infection and death numbers.  I'm talking about transmission rate.  It's the only metric that matters because it's the only one that we can control.  A small error in predicted transmission rate results in huge differences in infection/death numbers due to the logarithmic dynamics.  The error in predicted transmission rate, yes in your state too, is relatively small.

It's why you get the NIAID director saying we could see 200k dead and a week later the estimate is revised to 1/3rd of that.  It's not because they're alarmist or NWO puppets trying to enslave you.  It's because it's that sensitive.  Knowing that, the takeaway should be how lucky we are that the transmission rate didn't turn out a few percent higher than predicted.  It should be a realization of how close to disaster we came (not suggesting it's over), despite there being no tangible evidence to indicate it.  Not that the governor is making haphazard decisions based on bogus data.

 

[arg]

1 hour ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Good thing my wife doesn’t eat pork and there is none in the house, but before you judge, bacon does not count. Mmmm Bacon!

Got two full freezers, one for pork and the other for beef that we raised here on our place. We make our own bacon, corned beef and pastrami, plus we render the pork fat to make lard. Wife still buys chicken though, however we are getting enough eggs from ours for our needs. Where was I going with this....oh yeah I don't think our pork has the virus.

Edit, picture of bacon

Edited April 13, 2020 by arg
Bacon

[JBueno]

If the symptoms of this pandemic keep changing, isn’t it worth at least considering adjusting the dosage of medicine we’re taking? The response from the “no” camp seems to be some form of, “STFU and be thankful you aren’t dead, idiot.”

 

52 minutes ago, Mark1 said:

No. You're talking about infection and death numbers.  I'm talking about transmission rate.  It's the only metric that matters because it's the only one that we can control.  A small error in predicted transmission rate results in huge differences in infection/death numbers due to the logarithmic dynamics. 

How can we have accurate data on ANY of these rates when we can’t test everyone?

Plenty of deaths are being nudged under COVID-19, increasing the death count.

Plenty of potentially infected people aren’t being tested. Completely healthy people and people showing only a few symptoms.  That decreases the infections count. 

I’m not too bright but our admitted inability to accurately count the numerator and denominator seems like a gaping hole in our approach.

[war007afa]

11 hours ago, brabus said:Or you could put out things like violating 6 ft or walking around public while actively sick gets you fined. Only close business that are unable to operate while also adhering to social distancing. Do that and you have means to throw the book at the idiots while not fucking over the economic and mental welfare of the tens of millions who won’t fuck those things away. Guess I’ll never be a senior leader in big blue, because I certainly don’t fit the mold of lazy leadership that hits the easy button and hides behind a bullshit excuse like “but the masses...”

Here in DC, the ridiculous amount of people out and about unprotected like it’s any other day is staggering. Not to go to the grocery store or pharmacy, but people out picnicking or playing pickup games. And they can’t figure out why the rate is steadily increasing here. 

A ton of people are on the streets with just the “essential services and shops”. Now imagine if they opened up every other business and watch the herd or asymptomatic Karens run around more than they already are on their way to purchase those all-so-important whatever the hell it is they buy while spreading the Rona like BQZip’s mom used to sling the crabs. 

The “treat us like adults” mode may work in little America where the sense of community and caring still exists. In the shitty “I need to get mine” parts of America I happen to be stuck in where this continues to spread like wildfire, I’m grateful that where accountability isn’t happening, they at least reduced the places people CAN go to in some way make them not go out. Bad could be worse.

And it has to be a national policy. The scary number of Empire State license plates on the streets of DC have a lot of folks in the area concerned, especially because of the mass exodus that occurred a few weeks ago leading to outlying areas developing outbreaks, too. 

Oh, almost forgot. They released all the prisoners who weren’t full on murderers because they needed to ensure social distancing. And basically no one actually gets arrested and jailed or fined for violating stay at home because of the economic impact, so hope is literally the strategy with regard to individual accountability. 

[gearhog]

I've been off my property maybe 4 times in the last month. (Airline trips have cancelled). I'm taking it seriously, but I really don't like where this is headed. This is what I'm seeing more and more:

1. "My assessment of the risk is more accurate than your assessment of the risk."

2. "The level of risk I'm willing to accept is more appropriate than the level of risk you're willing to accept."

All that is fine. Those are debates that can be had and while there will never be a consensus, we might be able to educate, change a few minds, find some middle ground, and go about living our lives the way we choose. The disturbing part is where we allow this to happen:

3. "I have assessed the risk, determined the appropriate risk mitigation strategy, and am unilaterally imposing it on you."

The Governors of Kentucky and Michigan immediately spring to mind. I never would have thought so many Americans would enthusiastically cede this much power and control over our daily lives as we've seen the last month. Maybe this will blow over, and we'll go right back to Dec 2019. Or maybe we will end up with National immunization credentials, pandemic cell phone tracking, digital health records, digital currency Federal Reserve bank accounts, online voting, etc. Tin foil hat? Maybe. But it's all been proposed.

 

"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty." - Jefferson.

[brabus]

4 hours ago, war007afa said:

And it has to be a national policy.

No it doesn’t. But I’m also not saying you’re wrong about what’s going on in DC, I’m not there and you are. However, the majority of what people are talking about is state power. The federal government has far less control in stuff like this than people think, welcome to a federalist system. It makes a lot of sense that governors should make these types of decisions for their states, because as you highlighted, situations vary drastically between areas. Also, New Yorkers actually have liberty too, as much as  that bums out some Americans (not saying you’re one of them).

 

[ryleypav]

1 hour ago, torqued said:

The Governors of Kentucky and Michigan immediately spring to mind.

As a Michigan resident, I will say, our Governor may over overstepped her bounds. Sure. Not going to argue that point. However, there are many people who just dont bother to read the legislation and spread misinformation to the masses. All of a sudden people are shouting out how its now all of a sudden illegal to buy seeds and have a garden. Turns out, if you actually read things, you can most definitely buy seeds and lawn/garden equipment from a store so long as it isn't over 50,000 sq-ft (i.e. Menards or Lowes where people stand around in the garden section for days on end). So any local hardware store is fine. The use of motorboats seems to be the big point of contention here. While I agree its a touch to far, I get it too. I went flying the other day and there were probably 200+ boats out on the Bay fishing. At that point in time, so long as everyone in the boat was from the same house, you were fine. I know for a fact that many were not following this. On the same note, that is 200+ people going to the gas station and 200+ people going else where to get supplies. I believe that same train of thought is applied to industries like Lawn care, and golf courses here in MI. The activities themselves can be done in isolation, but not the preparation.

[war007afa]

2 hours ago, brabus said:

No it doesn’t. But I’m also not saying you’re wrong about what’s going on in DC, I’m not there and you are. However, the majority of what people are talking about is state power. The federal government has far less control in stuff like this than people think, welcome to a federalist system. It makes a lot of sense that governors should make these types of decisions for their states, because as you highlighted, situations vary drastically between areas. Also, New Yorkers actually have liberty too, as much as  that bums out some Americans (not saying you’re one of them).

 

Look, I'm all for liberty like the next guy.  However, where do we draw the line?  I have the right to survive and protect my family.  Should that right for my potentially-immunocompromised wife be infringed upon because some jackass wants to play disc golf with his buddies in the park down the way while coughing all over the place as he conducts a shelf check at Harris Teeter on the way there? This shit lives for days when it leaves your body; you may not even know you're touching a contaminated surface.

The concept of letting local officials create local policy works, except we live in an open border society and there's no vector control.  So without a uniformity on restrictions in order to limit the amount of movement of infected persons (who may not even know they're infected, it seems), hope of allowing this thing to die off wanes in the name of not letting the gubment take my rights. If I don't like the fact that Location X has strict disease containment measures, I can just hop in the family roadster and go down to Location Y where I can do whatever I want without regard to what harm I am causing to others. Every location has countless examples of people completely ignoring restrictions and infecting others (to include flippantly trying to spread the disease, in some extreme cases).

No one I know wants to cede their liberties.  But there are enough people out there who are literally killing others because they don't have the self control or sense of community to protect those they share a locality with by staying inside.

[SurelySerious]

One of my new favorite activities is reading the fictional things Gretchen Whitmer has banned. One of the few things Twitter is good for. Recently: “use of the handshake emoji in text messages”

[Duck]

Look, I'm all for liberty like the next guy.  However, where do we draw the line?  I have the right to survive and protect my family.  Should that right for my potentially-immunocompromised wife be infringed upon because some jackass wants to play disc golf with his buddies in the park down the way while coughing all over the place as he conducts a shelf check at Harris Teeter on the way there? This shit lives for days when it leaves your body; you may not even know you're touching a contaminated surface.
The concept of letting local officials create local policy works, except we live in an open border society and there's no vector control.  So without a uniformity on restrictions in order to limit the amount of movement of infected persons (who may not even know they're infected, it seems), hope of allowing this thing to die off wanes in the name of not letting the gubment take my rights. If I don't like the fact that Location X has strict disease containment measures, I can just hop in the family roadster and go down to Location Y where I can do whatever I want without regard to what harm I am causing to others. Every location has countless examples of people completely ignoring restrictions and infecting others (to include flippantly trying to spread the disease, in some extreme cases).
No one I know wants to cede their liberties.  But there are enough people out there who are literally killing others because they don't have the self control or sense of community to protect those they share a locality with by staying inside.

That sucks about having an immuno-compromised wife and forgive my ignorance but what’s stopping her from quarantining herself, while the rest of the world gets on with life?


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