COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[gearhog]

16 minutes ago, war007afa said:

Look, I'm all for liberty like the next guy.  However, where do we draw the line?  I have the right to survive and protect my family.  Should that right for my potentially-immunocompromised wife be infringed upon because some jackass wants to play disc golf with his buddies in the park down the way while coughing all over the place as he conducts a shelf check at Harris Teeter on the way there? This shit lives for days when it leaves your body; you may not even know you're touching a contaminated surface.

The concept of letting local officials create local policy works, except we live in an open border society and there's no vector control.  So without a uniformity on restrictions in order to limit the amount of movement of infected persons (who may not even know they're infected, it seems), hope of allowing this thing to die off wanes in the name of not letting the gubment take my rights. If I don't like the fact that Location X has strict disease containment measures, I can just hop in the family roadster and go down to Location Y where I can do whatever I want without regard to what harm I am causing to others. Every location has countless examples of people completely ignoring restrictions and infecting others (to include flippantly trying to spread the disease, in some extreme cases).

No one I know wants to cede their liberties.  But there are enough people out there who are literally killing others because they don't have the self control or sense of community to protect those they share a locality with by staying inside.

It sounds as if you're saying visiting the local park or Harris Teeter for groceries is tantamount to murder.

That's why I say I don't like the direction this has taken.

[Stoker]

3 minutes ago, Duck said:

That sucks about having an immuno-compromised wife and forgive my ignorance but what’s stopping her from quarantining herself, while the rest of the world gets on with life?


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Basically the argument is that no self-quarantine is going to be perfect. There will always be breaches. The social distancing / economic shutdown is intended to spread these breaches over a long period, so that when a vulnerable person does get it, they're not showing up to a hospital already overwhelmed by other sick, vulnerable people.

[war007afa]

36 minutes ago, torqued said:

It sounds as if you're saying visiting the local park or Harris Teeter for groceries is tantamount to murder.

That's why I say I don't like the direction this has taken.

Substitute fire for the virus.  If you walk around dragging and spreading flames which are burning people to death instead of staying inside a campfire ring until the fire is out, you're negligent, no (especially if you've been told you're dragging fire)? How is this any different? Extreme, yes.  But illustrates the point I'm trying to make.

The worst part of it is, most of the people spreading the flames don't even know they're doing it but refuse to acknowledge there may be an inferno behind them.

And yes, Duck, my wife is staying home (still) and I'll continue to basically decon every time I have to go grab food and potentially toilet paper, since for some strange reason the case numbers aren't going down here...

Edited April 13, 2020 by war007afa

[tac airlifter]

50 minutes ago, war007afa said:

Substitute fire for the virus.  If you walk around dragging and spreading flames which are burning people to death instead of staying inside a campfire ring until the fire is out, you're negligent, no (especially if you've been told you're dragging fire)? How is this any different? Extreme, yes.  But illustrates the point I'm trying to make.

The quantity and damage of fire spreading can be seen and objectively measured by all.  This isn’t as easy to measure, and some government numbers are looking more like trash daily.  So yea, your example does illustrate the root disagreement here: you are taking as Gospel truth worst case assumptions (many of which have already proven false).  I’m growing more and more uneasy about limiting my freedoms based on assumptions.  
 

If people are actually spreading fire, I’m ok with declaring Marshall law to stop the conflagration before society is consumed.  But, are we really there yet?  If not (hint, Marshall law not in effect) then expect a healthy hesitancy prior to degrading the bedrock principals of our society.

Edited April 13, 2020 by tac airlifter

[war007afa]

13 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

The quantity and damage of fire spreading can be seen and objectively measured by all.  This isn’t as easy to measure, and some government numbers are looking more like trash daily.  So yea, your example does illustrate the root disagreement here: you are taking as Gospel truth worst case assumptions (many of which have already proven false).  I’m growing more and more uneasy about limiting my freedoms based on assumptions.  
 

If people are actually spreading fire, I’m ok with declaring Marshall law to stop the conflagration before society is consumed.  But, are we really there yet?  If not (hint, Marshall law not in effect) then expect a healthy hesitancy prior to degrading the bedrock principals of our society.

I'll concede there is definitely concern over determining the ground truth numbers of carriers driving the assumptions. Data sucks, but does that truly mean we shouldn't honor the most-dangerous COA during a pandemic? This is literally a life-or-death situation.

It's the asymptomatic carriers which are the major concern here.  It's the 14 days of symptomless spread which put us at the greatest risk and allows this thing to do harm to the greatest amount of people. And the longer we delay acknowledging these people exist and continue to vector the disease uncontrolled, the longer we'll have measures in place.  Either the bullet to the head or the slow, painful gut shot: we have to pick which one we want to endure. Either way, it's going to suck.

[pawnman]

5 minutes ago, war007afa said:

I'll concede there is definitely concern over determining the ground truth numbers of carriers driving the assumptions. Data sucks, but does that truly mean we shouldn't honor the most-dangerous COA during a pandemic? This is literally a life-or-death situation.

It's the asymptomatic carriers which are the major concern here.  It's the 14 days of symptomless spread which put us at the greatest risk and allows this thing to do harm to the greatest amount of people. And the longer we delay acknowledging these people exist and continue to vector the disease uncontrolled, the longer we'll have measures in place.  Either the bullet to the head or the slow, painful gut shot: we have to pick which one we want to endure. Either way, it's going to suck.

So... We take this quick "bullet to the head" (which is usually fatal, but I'll play with your analogy).  When is it safe to let people out of the house again?  A certain number of cases?  An amount of time?  18 months from now when we have a vaccine?

What's the "slow gut shot" version look like?  Does it look like a world where people can go to a park, away from other people, without being arrested?  One where they can plant gardens?  Go to work with masks and gloves?

[war007afa]

31 minutes ago, pawnman said:

So... We take this quick "bullet to the head" (which is usually fatal, but I'll play with your analogy).  When is it safe to let people out of the house again?  A certain number of cases?  An amount of time?  18 months from now when we have a vaccine?

What's the "slow gut shot" version look like?  Does it look like a world where people can go to a park, away from other people, without being arrested?  One where they can plant gardens?  Go to work with masks and gloves?

I’m certainly not the science guy to tell you how long this thing lives, but however long that is plus a few days should be mostly sufficient. Isn’t that what you do with radiation and chem?

We’re living the slow gut shot version, where hope is apparently the strategy since no one is being held accountable except in extreme cases. 

[brabus]

I also have an immunocompromised family member, and of course I’m concerned. But, he doesn’t leave the house except for his doc appointments or a walk where he remains well clear of others and doesn’t touch any surfaces. I don’t expect others to curtail their liberties and economic/mental welfare over questionable data and my attachment to an individual (who I love very much)...nobody going to business X or playing in the park will have any direct affect on him, unless he stops giving a shit and starts frequenting the same places while touching surfaces and wiping his hands on his face. In which case, that’s on him, not the other people. 
 

God forbid emotional people for one second put this kind of reaction toward auto deaths or heart disease (which are encased by substantially more accurate/valid data). Are we cool with all of our cars being taken away and being told what and how much we’re allowed to eat? Because those two things would save millions of lives, yet we’re not rabble rousing about that. To close the loop on the analogy, I could choose to never travel by road to decrease my chance of death, just as people can choose to self quarantine if they don’t want to be around others. But that’s my choice in a free society, nobody else should be required to curb their liberty from 0600-0630 since that’s when I’ll be driving to work, as I selfishly demand everyone else needs to stay off the road so I’m not threatened with possible vehicular death.  Yes, it’s as illogical and anti-liberty as it sounds...

[Breckey]

We've had government try and reign in the heart disease/obesity numbers by instituting things like the sugar-tax and the healthy school lunch programs but instead Americans just complain and say it's their right to drink a big gulp with their hot dog and get diabetes. 

[jrizzell]

A former C-130 driver I was stationed with at Little Rock, now with JetBlue, died today because of COVID. this thing.

First assignment was in Alaska, and I was in same Squadron with Kevin and Julie. He was just a great dude; this is heartbreaking for their family. Certainly makes the entire pandemic feels a little closer to home...

[war007afa]

Interestingly enough, this conversation isn't just limited to this forum.  I offer the attached for your bathroom reading:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2007637

[M2]

If people did the the right thing in the first place, we wouldn't need all this fucking bullshit!

[jazzdude]

Here's a question to ponder (I don't have a right or wrong answer, btw), as the LIMFAC with this seems to be healthcare capacity:

 

How do we triage medical treatment?

 

How do we pick who gets access to the hospital and who doesn't? We can surge healthcare resources indefinitely.

 

Do we tell everyone over say 70 that "you've lived a long life" and we are directing limited resources to younger patients? Or do we give them preference because they've "paid their dues to society" and should be taken care of in their old age?

 

Do we do the same for people with terminal diseases ("treatment at best buys you another year, so we're going to treat someone younger or with a longer life expectancy")? What about non terminal diseases? Does it make a difference if a disease is genetic, or from a lifestyle choice?

 

Or does none of this matter, and if you can afford to pay for a bed, you should get priority over someone who can't pay or can only pay less than you're willing?

 

Quarantine and these drastic measures buy us time to plus up medical capacity, and start figuring out how to "best" utilize those resources.

 

But there's no right answer, and in the end some group is not going to have access.

 

 

 

 

[FLEA]

One thing I've caught is people keep throwing the mortality rate of 1-2% around still. I went to look it up yesterday on google and the actual mortality rate is above 6% globally now and over 3% in the US. That's a pretty big difference no matter how you look at it. 

I think it's also understated that even healthy younger people who survive the virus often recieve permanent or lasting lung and cardiovascular damage from it. That's going to become an increasingly important issue, especially for many on this forum that turn 40 when theyll be required to pass an annual ekg. 

 

[Sua Sponte]

2 hours ago, jrizzell said:

First assignment was in Alaska, and I was in same Squadron with Kevin and Julie. He was just a great dude; this is heartbreaking for their family. Certainly makes the entire pandemic feels a little closer to home...

I was in the 61st with Julie. Very sad time for their family. The GoFuneMe that was setup received over $100K in donations for their family. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Sua Sponte

[Stoker]

4 hours ago, Breckey said:

We've had government try and reign in the heart disease/obesity numbers by instituting things like the sugar-tax and the healthy school lunch programs but instead Americans just complain and say it's their right to drink a big gulp with their hot dog and get diabetes. 

It's not just that it's their right to do the bad things; it's also their right to have someone else pay for it (be it their employer via health insurance, the government, or the hospital).

[busdriver]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

I went to look it up yesterday on google and the actual mortality rate is above 6% globally now and over 3% in the US. That's a pretty big difference no matter how you look at it. 

Old engineering cliche:  All models are inaccurate, some are useful.

The data is seriously crappy.  Given the apparent wide range of symptoms (asymptomatic all the way to knocking on death's door) and the limited amount of testing that is triaged to more serious cases, the case fatality rate is inflated if you just divide deaths by total verified cases.  The lower CFR being reported is (I assume) an estimate based on epidemiological modeling.

As an example, if you just take total verified cases in Italy, the CFR is something like 12%.  But that same number also results in only a quarter of a percent penetration into the population, New York state is around 2% penetration.  Which seems like an insanely low percentage given the Ro estimate of 2.5ish.  Even more so when you consider the seasonal flu is around 1.3 and the 1918 pandemic is something like 1.8. 

For reference, I scrounged around google and found a paper (published years ago) on selective social distancing to control a flu epidemic.  Based on a "small town model" of 10k residents and an epidemic meant to be representative of the 1918 flu (natural progression 50% of the population would get it before herd immunity did its thing), they applied a handful of different techniques and managed a maximum reduction down to 15% getting it.  They assumed kids and teens were the primary vector so restricted their movements (closed schools and kept kids/teens at home).  Would a total societal application get that percentage down to the 1-2% range?  Maybe?  

 

The information from people who know things is being filtered through communications majors who don't have the aptitude to understand any of it.  They are incentivized to freak people out, it sells ads.  So take it seriously, but freaking out and destroying everything because we're scared isn't a good idea either.

[Homestar]

7 hours ago, pawnman said:

So... We take this quick "bullet to the head" (which is usually fatal, but I'll play with your analogy).  When is it safe to let people out of the house again?  A certain number of cases?  An amount of time?  18 months from now when we have a vaccine?

What's the "slow gut shot" version look like?  Does it look like a world where people can go to a park, away from other people, without being arrested?  One where they can plant gardens?  Go to work with masks and gloves?

Dan Crenshaw has a good podcast episode on this

Mobilize and Transition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mobilize-transition-policy-to-defeat-covid-19-restore/id1498149200?i=1000470697169

His guest, Dr. Danielle Allen, James Bryant Conant University Professor at Harvard University, argues that there could be partial remobilization of the economy, especially in regions where the virus is not spreading much, but it would require testing at high levels (5 million tests/day) and would require regular re-testing.  Dr. Allen is a political theorist.  It was an interesting discussion.

[brabus]

1 hour ago, busdriver said:

So take it seriously, but freaking out and destroying everything because we're scared isn't a good idea either

Shack. 17 million filed for unemployment in the last month. Unverified personally, but read it took nearly 10 months for this to happen during the Great Depression. This is a textbook definition of “cure is worse than the virus.” Measured responses needed, but reckless destruction of the economy, liberty, and the many unintended consequences that follow is not. Large protests are beginning...I hope all of these governors get a very clear reminder of who America is. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by brabus

[skybert]

On 4/13/2020 at 9:48 AM, ryleypav said:

As a Michigan resident, I will say, our Governor may over overstepped her bounds. Sure. Not going to argue that point. However, there are many people who just dont bother to read the legislation and spread misinformation to the masses. All of a sudden people are shouting out how its now all of a sudden illegal to buy seeds and have a garden. Turns out, if you actually read things, you can most definitely buy seeds and lawn/garden equipment from a store so long as it isn't over 50,000 sq-ft (i.e. Menards or Lowes where people stand around in the garden section for days on end). So any local hardware store is fine. The use of motorboats seems to be the big point of contention here. While I agree its a touch to far, I get it too. I went flying the other day and there were probably 200+ boats out on the Bay fishing. At that point in time, so long as everyone in the boat was from the same house, you were fine. I know for a fact that many were not following this. On the same note, that is 200+ people going to the gas station and 200+ people going else where to get supplies. I believe that same train of thought is applied to industries like Lawn care, and golf courses here in MI. The activities themselves can be done in isolation, but not the preparation.

I live in Michigan as well,  our governor has gone well beyond executive power

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by skybert

[jazzdude]

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

[brabus]

6 hours ago, jazzdude said:

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

You clearly haven’t had a personal connection to the small business world. People aren’t losing their livelihood because they’ve planned poorly. Additionally on the big side of the house,  corps don’t run with billions of cash reserve because it doesn’t make sense. They would not be profitable if scrooging away money was their aim. Not to say there aren’t companies out there who have fucked it away, but in general the economic impact is in large not due to how businesses have ran. 

[FLEA]

Got my stimulus check today. Honestly I feel like I hit the jackpot being in the military right now. Nice to be working, getting paid, and still get free money on the side. 

[Homestar]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Got my stimulus check today. Honestly I feel like I hit the jackpot being in the military right now. Nice to be working, getting paid, and still get free money on the side. 

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

[HU&W]

Just now, Homestar said:

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

It’s an additional credit, paid in advance.