COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[waveshaper]

Here's some new PCS/COVID-19 protocols that were just released:<)

"Face Coverings, Health Questions Now Required for Military Moves"

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/15/face-coverings-health-questions-now-required-military-moves.html

[Lord Ratner]

On 4/13/2020 at 3:55 PM, FLEA said:

One thing I've caught is people keep throwing the mortality rate of 1-2% around still. I went to look it up yesterday on google and the actual mortality rate is above 6% globally now and over 3% in the US. That's a pretty big difference no matter how you look at it. 

I think it's also understated that even healthy younger people who survive the virus often recieve permanent or lasting lung and cardiovascular damage from it. That's going to become an increasingly important issue, especially for many on this forum that turn 40 when theyll be required to pass an annual ekg. 

 

There is a zero percent chance the mortality rate of this thing is 3%. We have crappy data on the actual number of deaths, and effectively no data of the number of asymptomatic/resolved cases. 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

 

13% of a semi-random sample were infected without symptoms. Extrapolate that out and NYC alone has one million asymptomatic cases, or five times what the entire state is reporting. That means at the epicenter in the US the death rate is 1% or lower. Everywhere else will be even better.

 

This thing is going to be about as fatal as the flu (my guess), but it's much more contagious than the flu, and everyone is getting it all at once. We definitely needed to do something to mitigate the risk. But we did nothing, then we did too much. 

 

Face masks for everyone who goes out in public, six feet social distancing, including tables at restaurants, no public gathering like concerts and sporting events, and keep the high-risk people at home. That probably would have been enough, but we panicked and didn't allow the social distancing measures to take effect before locking everything down. TJ Maxx, where no one gets within 6 feet of each other usually, is closed while grocery stores, where people are all over each other, are open.

 

We did not have to erase 3 months of wealth creation, but we did. At least it will be a great time to invest or get a mortgage, if I don't get furloughed. But worse, because the "experts" were too afraid to admit they just didn't know (death rate of 3.4%), because they felt the need to bend the truth to influence behavior ("masks don't really help, so let the health professionals have them"), we will leave this crisis with yet another reason for many people to not trust trained professionals, and to not trust science. Pity. 

 

Another one added to the list. Global warming, global cooling, acid rain, peak oil, overpopulation, nuclear holocaust, zika, Y2K, the food pyramid, satanic cults, COVID-19. 

[waveshaper]

46 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

13% of a semi-random sample were infected without symptoms. Extrapolate that out and NYC alone has one million asymptomatic cases, or five times what the entire state is reporting. That means at the epicenter in the US the death rate is 1% or lower. Everywhere else will be even better.

The Theodore Roosevelt might be a good "Case" study on this subject. Here's the latest stats;

"Of the 585 cases on Roosevelt, about 400 were found to be asymptomatic."

“What we’ve learned, certainly in the Navy, is that with regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, the surgeon general of the Navy" - stated.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/14/950-sailors-now-have-covid-19-2nd-uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailor-in-intensive-care#more-75435

 

[nsplayr]

I’m hopeful we’re starting to enter purple territory on this chart, as evidenced primarily by the increasing number of takes complaining about how we overreacted.
 

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 4/13/2020 at 1:06 AM, arg said:

Got two full freezers, one for pork and the other for beef that we raised here on our place. We make our own bacon, corned beef and pastrami, plus we render the pork fat to make lard. Wife still buys chicken though, however we are getting enough eggs from ours for our needs. Where was I going with this....oh yeah I don't think our pork has the virus.

Edit, picture of bacon

Yes! Yes! Yes! I know pic takes up space, but it’s glorious Bacon. Arg has it right. Self sustaining, if not close to it. Preparing Prime Rib right now, store bought but still a nice cut. Everyone else bought the Chicken out and ignored the Prime Rib at $6 a lb. Guess I’ll eat the Prime(s) x 4 for two weeks, too lazy to thaw my chicken. Thx Arg, that’s living - some will say it’s bad for us but we all pass and there’s nothing like being a carnivore. Sorry, derailed there - But it’s Bacon!

[pawnman]

12 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

SECDEF announced the STOP MOVE would be extended to an as yet undecided date.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Well, shit.  My house just went under contract for my July move.

[JimNtexas]

Considered Insightful:
 

 

 

 

[celtic020]

45 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Well, shit.  My house just went under contract for my July move.

I just put a deposit down for a house in DC for mid-June.  And it wasn’t a small deposit.  DAMNIT.  

[brickhistory]

Sure, we can argue about Kung flu mortality rates.  Is it 3%  Is it .01%?

We can b1tch about frozen PCS and money lost and families inconvenienced.

We can commiserate about our comrades who had their deployments extended.

But dammit, THIS is serious:

https://movieweb.com/top-gun-2-maverick-release-date-delay/

 

Oh, the humanity...

[BashiChuni]

curve flattened.

back to work.

stop trampling on the fucking constitution.

[nsplayr]

38 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

curve flattened.

back to work.

stop trampling on the fucking constitution.

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

[FLEA]

12 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

It's funny how we get discouraged when people arm chair general military matters but so many of us are willing to do the same with a health issue. 

 

In other news, I realised service secretaries have the power to extend bonus pay (I think up to $1000/mo) to individuals who are deployed more than 180 days a year as a result of unforseen circumstances. It would sure be nice if someone forwarded that up the staff to compensate all those Bros and broettes taking one for the team right now. 

[BashiChuni]

17 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

we were sold on these drastic measures to "flatten the curve" and not "overwhelm" our healthcare system.

that's been accomplished

now let's get to it. or do you keep moving goal posts around?

 

people die every year of the flu. people will die of this virus. it sucks. but its not an excuse to wreck our economy, take away constitutional rights (ie Raleigh police), and FORCE people to stay in their house

Edited April 15, 2020 by BashiChuni

[nsplayr]

Some of y’all on here be like

[pawnman]

[LookieRookie]

So what is the desired outcome now that we’ve ramped medical supply production and flattened the curve?

We don’t have a vaccine. That means at least 80%* of the population needs to become infected to develop her immunity.

Places that don’t have subways or huge events like Mardi Gras are less likely to spread.

*Unsure if 80% is the precise number.

[nsplayr]

Ed Yong has done some fantastic writing over at The Atlantic about the, “What next?” question. I recommend both of these pieces.

Start here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Latest here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/

Edited April 16, 2020 by nsplayr

[LookieRookie]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
 

Cliffs: China was experimenting on SARS-CoV-2 for research not as a bioweapon. It escaped containment at the Wuhan Lab. The Chinese went full Chinese and lied and covered it up so it spread. 

[Lord Ratner]

10 hours ago, waveshaper said:

The Theodore Roosevelt might be a good "Case" study on this subject. Here's the latest stats;

"Of the 585 cases on Roosevelt, about 400 were found to be asymptomatic."

“What we’ve learned, certainly in the Navy, is that with regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, the surgeon general of the Navy" - stated.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/14/950-sailors-now-have-covid-19-2nd-uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailor-in-intensive-care#more-75435

 

This is great news. If we find out that *way more* people are infected than we thought, then it's not as deadly, and the curve is a lot flatter than originally suggested.

[Danger41]

3 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Some of y’all on here be like

Some of y’all here be like this

[HU&W]

9 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is great news. If we find out that *way more* people are infected than we thought, then it's not as deadly, and the curve is a lot flatter than originally suggested.

Interesting you say that. 30-50% of patients tested at the Chicago Roseland hospital already have the antibody.  https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

[M2]

An interesting read...

The Problem With Coronavirus Models Is How We Talk About Them

[M2]

[Pooter]

18 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

curve flattened.

back to work.

stop trampling on the ing constitution.

There is a very realistic possibility that this thing will go right back to exponential growth if we lift restrictions too soon.  Would you like to do this dick dance shutdown all over again?  Why don't we listen to our medical professionals and lift restrictions once the virus has hit R0 and penetration percentages that they deem are good enough to not cause another giant global shit storm.  

[tac airlifter]

4 hours ago, Pooter said:

There is a very realistic possibility that this thing will go right back to exponential growth if we lift restrictions too soon.  Would you like to do this dick dance shutdown all over again?  Why don't we listen to our medical professionals and lift restrictions once the virus has hit R0 and penetration percentages that they deem are good enough to not cause another giant global shit storm.  

Agreed, we should wait for medical professionals to let us know when it’s safe to resume the constitution.  Until then, let’s put our faith in constantly changing projections/recommendations and continue arresting church goers.  Safety first, whatever the cost!

Sarcasm BTW.  If this is a crisis, declare Marshall law; then you can drag worshippers out of synagogues and arrest people solo on the beach with at least an appearance of legality.  But we don’t live in a country where “professionals” make guesses and governors enforce mandates which trample the Bill of Rights.... although clearly some of you want to live under that tyranny.

 The bad guys never realize they’re the bad guys.