COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[ClearedHot]

On 1/22/2021 at 10:07 AM, slackline said:

I’ll have to look it up, but I saw an article on the Moderna vaccine from the UK that basically said it was covering down on different strains because of the RNA business it does.

True...with the exception of the latest mutations.  There is a lot of concern about the  B.1.1.7 variant which come out of Europe (primarily the UK).  I am not en epidemiologist but from the basic reading I did they are concerned for three reasons.  First, the mutation is in a different part of the virus (protein spike), and that may have implications on the vaccine effectiveness.  Second, it is approximately 50% more infectious.  Third, it is approximately 30% more deadly.  

 

There is also a brand new mutation called South Africa’s 501Y.V2.  Initial reports indicate the vaccine will be effective but there is concern because much like B.1.1.7, this variant has several mutations.

Again, not an expert, but the sooner we can get the masses vaccinated the sooner we can stop the spread.  Also, I would hope the biotech are working to adjust the vaccine to account for the mutations.

[jazzdude]

True...with the exception of the latest mutations.  There is a lot of concern about the  B.1.1.7 variant which come out of Europe (primarily the UK).  I am not en epidemiologist but from the basic reading I did they are concerned for three reasons.  First, the mutation is in a different part of the virus (protein spike), and that may have implications on the vaccine effectiveness.  Second, it is approximately 50% more infectious.  Third, it is approximately 30% more deadly.  
 
There is also a brand new mutation called South Africa’s 501Y.V2.  Initial reports indicate the vaccine will be effective but there is concern because much like B.1.1.7, this variant has several mutations.
Again, not an expert, but the sooner we can get the masses vaccinated the sooner we can stop the spread.  Also, I would hope the biotech are working to adjust the vaccine to account for the mutations.

Sounds like Modena and Pfizer are working on a booster shot for the south african variant, but best case that's probably 9 months out (driven mainly by testing, like the original vaccines). But even though it's not as effective on the new stains, the hope is that the current vaccine at least reduced the chances of a severe illness requiring hospitalization. And more people vaccinated means slower transmission, which means slower mutations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/covid-vaccine-moderna-working-on-covid-booster-shots-for-south-african-strain.html

https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/fauci-said-the-uss-covid-19-vaccines-are-powerful-enough-that-they-should-be-able-to-shoulder-new-strains-of-the-infection-with-limited-impact-on-efficacy/articleshow/80398864.cms

I'm guessing COVID is probably here to stay. My bet is there will be a target date set for reopening/getting back to normal in mid/late 2022, to give everyone the opportunity to get vaccinated (would need a study done on kids as well and get them vaccinated), and then basically say you had your chance, so if you get sick and die from Covid, it's on you (just like the flu in the past). International travel will probably return slower, with restrictions/quarantines based on where you traveled. All this assuming no crazy variants of the virus emerge in the interim. But I'm just a pilot, so my opinion doesn't really mean squat in COVID policy...

[ClearedHot]

12 hours ago, MyCS said:

Biggest issues I'm seeing:

#1 Declinations of the vaccine

#2 Supply constraints for the doses

From a Public Health perspective they were hoping to have a grasp of COVID by Fall/Winter 2021. I don't see that happening. 

 

China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring.

https//www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/business/china-covid-19-vaccine-backlash.html

Talking about messed up and sad!

My sister is an ICU nurse in the north east and had been in the thick of this since early on.  When offered to the medical staff in her hospital 50% of the doctors and 60% of the nurses declined. 

From my time at the Pentagon I still WTOP in DC, last night they reported all vaccination in Northern Va have been cancelled for the foreseeable future due to vaccine supply.

 

China...well yeah...China.

[Prozac]

My dad who is 71 and has some underlying health issues was able to make a vaccination appointment just to have it cancelled a couple days later due to lack of availability. This was in the Seattle area. Rollout and distribution have been pretty piss poor it seems. 

[slackline]

Friends I have at hospitals in AZ and CA say majority of med personnel are getting it. YMMV

[slackline]

Just now, MyCS said:

Did you just say CA? I am raising the BS flag. Bro, californians believe that medicinal marijuana and CBD oil/eatables will inoculate you against everything and probably even cure COVID. 

Oh, you're raising the BS flag?  Well, now I just feel silly...

You know why YMMV means right?

[jazzdude]

I think regarding the vaccine volunteerism, there's a good number of people in the "wait and see" camp, and waiting for more people to get it to feel better about the risks before they decide to take it.

I know I was in that camp initially, but decided to volunteer to get it once it becomes available at my clinic (though my phase puts me at the back of the line, so I'd be surprised if it's before summertime).

[DirkDiggler]

My wife’s a nurse at the local military hospital; the bulk of the personnel there have volunteered to receive the vaccine, she just got her second dose yesterday.

[slackline]

Family is in Spokane, I’m in class in DC, weed smell is everywhere, all the time.  It’s worse in DC, go figure.  When my teenagers come visit they notice how much more you smell it in DC, and it’s not rare smelling it in Spokane...

[Snuggie]

My health system has given at least one dose of a COVID vaccine to 71% of its staff. We are doing a final first round vaccine clinic tomorrow so I expect that number to increase by a few points.

I don’t have the exact number but we had a percentage of people who wanted to “wait and see” when we first started in December that are now getting the vaccine. We should get our hard declinations soon as we require people to make their choice known.

 

 

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, MyCS said:

Thanks for confirming what I am seeing in regard to the medical side. My aunt is a nurse and she declined as well. From a small sample size of 600 active duty, I only saw 200 volunteer for the vaccine. 

China is providing people with an ineffective vaccine that will only prolong the issues we are experiencing with COVID. If the Chinese vaccine is ineffective, a travel ban may need to be imposed on China and countries who paid for that version of the vaccine.   

But that might be seen as racist and xenophobic!

[nsplayr]

At this point IDGAF about people declining the vaccine. We're still supply-constrained and demand is far outstripping supply. Let's get that solved ASAP.

I've said this before and I'll say it again...with the vaccines being so effective against the original strain I'm 100% willing to let other folks win the Darwin Award by refusing to get protected against a deadly virus that's already spread everywhere.

Once we knock out all the folks who do want the vaccine, which is the majority, then we can have a conversation about folks who originally declined, primarily focused on how the vaccine is safe, effective, and will allow everyone to get back to normal. I personally know a handful of "wait and see" folks and by time we've vaccinated 69% of the country and it's next fall, that seems like plenty of time for them to have done just that.

"Hard decliners" (sts)...well, unlike Pokemon, you can't realistically expect to catch 'em all...

Edited January 26, 2021 by nsplayr

[HossHarris]

47 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

....a deadly virus that's already spread everywhere.....

Wait ... what’s the overall mortality rate again?  What about for military aged folks?  Children?

[slackline]

52 minutes ago, HossHarris said:

Wait ... what’s the overall mortality rate again?  What about for military aged folks?  Children?

You're right, 420K+ deaths means this isn't that big a deal.  34K deaths from the flu.  Yep, no big deal... I guess if you're not affected, who cares right? 

Gonna whip out some BS about conflated numbers?  Ok, go for it. Probably right, the world got together to conspire against their own economies...  I agree, it's time, past time,  to be smart about opening up, but this is real.

Maybe that's not how you feel, that's for sure how your post came across.

[BashiChuni]

16 minutes ago, slackline said:

You're right, 420K+ deaths means this isn't that big a deal.  34K deaths from the flu.  Yep, no big deal... I guess if you're not affected, who cares right? 

Gonna whip out some BS about conflated numbers?  Ok, go for it. Probably right, the world got together to conspire against their own economies...  I agree, it's time, past time,  to be smart about opening up, but this is real.

Maybe that's not how you feel, that's for sure how your post came across.

i think some good risk management/decision making is lacking from folks who shrill that viewpoint you just typed out.

got it COVID is real. check.

under 55 and healthy? it's a nothing burger. time to live life.

older and/or unhealthy? take precautions/stay safe/flatten the curve/build back better/its only two weeks.

 

amazing how some military members who are paid to make risk/reward decisions can't figure this out (not a spear at you slack but at my most recent experience with senior base leadership in my CoC)

[BashiChuni]

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

 I'm 100% willing to let other folks win the Darwin Award by refusing to get protected against a deadly virus that's already spread everywhere.

darwin award? "deadly"?

not for my age bracket and health brother.

that's the problem with how we've handled this "crisis"...very broad, dangerous sounding strokes. we need nuance and perspective instead of the media rolling literal death counts across the screen 24/7

i'll take my 99.99% chance to win your "darwin award" any day

(notice how i'm not saying the virus isn't real...it certainly is...for CERTAIN demographics/age range/health status people)

[Pooter]

1 hour ago, HossHarris said:

Wait ... what’s the overall mortality rate again?  What about for military aged folks?  Children?

..comparable to the flu. And transmission rates are far far higher than the flu. Which is why this has been significantly deadlier in terms of total numbers.  
 

The military requires you to be vaccinated for every year and no one has a conniption, so what exactly is the issue here. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Pooter

[Pooter]

4 minutes ago, MyCS said:

COVID vaccine isn't mandatory like the other vaccines. It received emergency FDA approval. I don't think the new administration is going to make it mandatory for the military. POTUS would have to sign an order to make it happen.

Yes.. I know that. Which is why I brought up another vaccine for a very similar virus, which is mandatory, and somehow no one loses their minds over that.

[Pooter]

50 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

darwin award? "deadly"?

not for my age bracket and health brother.

that's the problem with how we've handled this "crisis"...very broad, dangerous sounding strokes. we need nuance and perspective instead of the media rolling literal death counts across the screen 24/7

i'll take my 99.99% chance to win your "darwin award" any day

(notice how i'm not saying the virus isn't real...it certainly is...for CERTAIN demographics/age range/health status people)

Jesus h Christ how many times does this need to be explained here.

Getting a vaccine isn't just about protecting yourself.

I'm glad you're in a low risk demographic. Hooray for you. Your risk is probably comparable to the flu or possibly even lower for certain age groups. But getting the vaccine isn't all about you. There are people out there who for one reason or another can't get vaccines. Maybe it's an access problem or maybe they have a medical condition that prevents it. When you get vaccinated you not only protect yourself but you also bring us one step closer to herd immunity.. protecting other people too. 
 

The fact that you're ignoring this part tells me you're either extremely selfish or being deliberately obtuse. 

[Sua Sponte]

5 hours ago, slackline said:

Family is in Spokane, I’m in class in DC, weed smell is everywhere, all the time.  It’s worse in DC, go figure.  When my teenagers come visit they notice how much more you smell it in DC, and it’s not rare smelling it in Spokane...

The shit smell from downtown and off Sprague Ave covers any weed smell in Spokane.

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

darwin award? "deadly"?

not for my age bracket and health brother.

that's the problem with how we've handled this "crisis"...very broad, dangerous sounding strokes. we need nuance and perspective instead of the media rolling literal death counts across the screen 24/7

i'll take my 99.99% chance to win your "darwin award" any day

(notice how i'm not saying the virus isn't real...it certainly is...for CERTAIN demographics/age range/health status people)

All good until you are in the 1% like me.  While I am retired and a little older, I am not in any of the risk groups...no underlying heath concerns and it fucking humbled me.  Guessing it is because I have A negative blood type.

Truth be told I was scared.  My pulse ox went below 90% and I was in a world of hurt.  Perhaps even more concerning, I had to fight the dochebag military doctors for actual meds.  I asked for therapeutics five days after the symptoms began and the reply was "take tylenol and cough drops."  After 10 days when my pulse ox dropped to 88% dropped my ICU nurse sister stepped in and went mid-evil so I could get some real help.  She had to explain when she wanted me on certain meds to the doctor.  When I recovered and had a follow up with the doctor she changed her tune and told me I was her "test case"... I've already reached back to the base with that little gem.

Seriously, I hope none of you get it.

[Pooter]

9 minutes ago, MyCS said:

Truth be told. We are a reflection of the civilian populace. If the flu vaccine wasn't mandatory for us, I guarantee nobody would get in line for the shot. Only half of adults receive their flu vaccine annually. 

Only slightly more than half of all eligible adults vote too.
 

So I'm not sure what your argument is here.. because half of Americans are ignorant/lazy pos's we shouldn't get vaccinated?  
 

Also you can bet the take rate for the covid vaccine is going to be much much higher than your average flu shot. So as a "reflection of the populace" we should probably get it. 

[jazzdude]

i think some good risk management/decision making is lacking from folks who shrill that viewpoint you just typed out.
got it COVID is real. check.
under 55 and healthy? it's a nothing burger. time to live life.
older and/or unhealthy? take precautions/stay safe/flatten the curve/build back better/its only two weeks.
 
amazing how some military members who are paid to make risk/reward decisions can't figure this out (not a spear at you slack but at my most recent experience with senior base leadership in my CoC)

One of the issues is that the more it spreads, the more chances it has to mutate. Those mutations might be insignificant, or it might make things worse (more severe symptoms, higher transmission, etc).

Those mutations also may make the vaccine less effective (may not stop you from getting sick, but may still help reduce severity of symptoms).

So at the individual level, you take risks based on what you're willing to accept, but your decisions can affect others, while others are taking risks that can impact you as well.

Plus COVID sucks, would not recommend. Had a "mild" case, pretty much felt wiped out for a couple weeks, and still slowly recovering to normal a few weeks later (primarily aerobic fitness, which has been slow to recover). Though it does feel good not to be winded while grocery shopping anymore after I had "recovered" and was testing negative. Pretty sure those retirees at the commissary were moving faster than me...

[Homestar]

3 hours ago, MyCS said:

l. I don't think the new administration is going to make it mandatory for the military.

I’m willing to bet that after the vaccine gets fda approval it becomes mandatory like the flu shot. 

[BashiChuni]

5 hours ago, Pooter said:

Jesus h Christ how many times does this need to be explained here.

Getting a vaccine isn't just about protecting yourself.

I'm glad you're in a low risk demographic. Hooray for you. Your risk is probably comparable to the flu or possibly even lower for certain age groups. But getting the vaccine isn't all about you. There are people out there who for one reason or another can't get vaccines. Maybe it's an access problem or maybe they have a medical condition that prevents it. When you get vaccinated you not only protect yourself but you also bring us one step closer to herd immunity.. protecting other people too. 
 

The fact that you're ignoring this part tells me you're either extremely selfish or being deliberately obtuse. 

then those people need to double triple mask and stay home, stay safe, its only until the vaccine is out, lock it down.

i do not need to mask up or keep my small business shut (if i had one)

 

Edit: to be clear i am 100% in favor of getting the vaccine i'm not anti-vax

Edited January 27, 2021 by BashiChuni