COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

My company has paperwork from DoD stating we are all Essential to national defense which bumps our priority for the vaccine.  Even if I hadn't had COVID I could not look myself in the eye if I jumped the line in front of someone who is vulnerable.

Even though I am COVID Complete, I want to get the vaccine, plan is to until later this summer when the demand curve flips.

Certainly get that take.  On the flip side, I have ~60 cadets looking at me as a role model.  So if I can influence them to also get the vaccine when offered, I want to do whatever I can.

Plus... The sooner most of us are vaccinated, the sooner bars start opening and concerts resume.  And I can actually go somewhere with my use or lose leave.

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Certainly get that take.  On the flip side, I have ~60 cadets looking at me as a role model.  So if I can influence them to also get the vaccine when offered, I want to do whatever I can.

Plus... The sooner most of us are vaccinated, the sooner bars start opening and concerts resume.  And I can actually go somewhere with my use or lose leave.

Amazing how many people are just like "you can just take leave at home where you work all day remote if youre not flying you know?" Like mother fucker really? Go fuck yourself. 

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

Certainly get that take.  On the flip side, I have ~60 cadets looking at me as a role model.  So if I can influence them to also get the vaccine when offered, I want to do whatever I can.

Plus... The sooner most of us are vaccinated, the sooner bars start opening and concerts resume.  And I can actually go somewhere with my use or lose leave.

How much leave do you have to use by 30 Sep? 

[pawnman]

37 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

How much leave do you have to use by 30 Sep? 

30 days.  Plus I have 83 from the "special accrual" we got for Covid.

[ViperMan]

4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Don’t worry about it man. If you are offered the vaccine, take it.

FWIW I was vaccinated before my wife who is a teacher, my mother who is 70, or my step father who is 66 & is in a wheelchair and a CPAP.

Does that make sense? No. But it’s not like if I turned mine down they would get theirs any faster, so just take it if offered. Mil vaccine pipelines also seem completely separate from local public health pipelines but YMMV I guess.

The folks who may get some shit are the ones that knowingly lie or bend the truth significantly to try to jump the line, although IMHO I think we just vaccinate everyone ASAP and spend the energy doing whatever it takes to achieve that vs getting butthurt. General life advice: getting butthurt rarely has a positive ROI.

I swear to god if we offered everyone a free meal if they would get vaccinated in chick-fil-a drive thrus we’d have every adult in this country vaccinated in 2 months flat.

 

4 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

My company has paperwork from DoD stating we are all Essential to national defense which bumps our priority for the vaccine.  Even if I hadn't had COVID I could not look myself in the eye if I jumped the line in front of someone who is vulnerable.

Even though I am COVID Complete, I want to get the vaccine, plan is to until later this summer when the demand curve flips.

Remember guys, getting the vaccine does protect others. Cutting people in line who need it more is not great, but there is still benefit. It's not a zero sum game.

[slackline]

19 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

 

Remember guys, getting the vaccine does protect others. Cutting people in line who need it more is not great, but there is still benefit. It's not a zero sum game.

True, and I think nsplayr is right. If you're offered it, turning it down on some principle that your "more in need parents, sister, whoever" hasn't gotten it yet won't magically put that dose in the arm of your loved one.
 

Don't actively seek to cut in front of a group more in need, but don't turn it down if offered...

[slackline]

1 minute ago, MyCS said:

This was discussed yesterday. Guys, let's set the record straight. Just because you vaccinate military, first responders, and educators don't mean bars and clubs will open any sooner. Your bases may remain in Charlie just because what is happening outside the gates. Not to mention, the different strains they have discovered. 

The goal is for herd immunity to kick in around 80% of the US being inoculated. We're talking about 240M people if my math is correct.

Please state intentions...  What point are you trying to make, or what drove you to trying to be the adult in the room here?

[Sua Sponte]

3 hours ago, MyCS said:

People think we are about to turn a corner. That's not the case anytime soon.

When a 2-star has to remind people not to have Super Bowl parties unless it's 10 or less people. It feels like kindergarten class. But that is what it takes because people don't listen.

Just passing along what the military medical experts and GOs discussed yesterday during our biweekly briefing. I should have emphasized that point.

Military medical "experts" all told me that the burn pit I lived next to at Balad circa 2005/2006 was "fine." However, the VA just registered me in a deployed base burn pit registry because they're afraid of another Agent Orange fiasco like they had after Vietnam. If I was taking medical advice, the military healthcare system would be at the very bottom of that list.

[ClearedHot]

10 hours ago, ViperMan said:

Remember guys, getting the vaccine does protect others. Cutting people in line who need it more is not great, but there is still benefit. It's not a zero sum game.

I would say that is true if you have not had COVID.  I had a nasty case over Christmas and have been told by multiple doctors that I may still get the vaccine, but I have solid antibodies for at least 90 days (a recent study found antibodies after 11 months).  The CDC and other are still studying reinfection which will likely take a while to resolve with certainty and while the recommend you still adhere to protective measures (masks, hand washing...etc.), they also state this on their website - there here have been a few recorded cases of coronavirus reinfection, but they remain rare.  Given these facts I think I am safe to wait another 60 days and allow others who are more vulnerable to get the vaccine, I also think there is a very low probability that I could pass it on to someone else.

 

[jazzdude]

I would say that is true if you have not had COVID.  I had a nasty case over Christmas and have been told by multiple doctors that I may still get the vaccine, but I have solid antibodies for at least 90 days (a recent study found antibodies after 11 months).  The CDC and other are still studying reinfection which will likely take a while to resolve with certainty and while the recommend you still adhere to protective measures (masks, hand washing...etc.), they also state this on their website - there here have been a few recorded cases of coronavirus reinfection, but they remain rare.  Given these facts I think I am safe to wait another 60 days and allow others who are more vulnerable to get the vaccine, I also think there is a very low probability that I could pass it on to someone else.

I'm in a similar boat (spending Christmas down with COVID wasn't fun), but will will get the vaccine as soon as it becomes available to me. (Not to say you're wrong in your reasoning)

Here's my assumptions:
- Need at least 42 days from that (28 days between shots, plus a couple weeks to build immunity following shot #2) from when I get the first shot to build immunity
- Shots are available on my schedule, and not running into delays, especially getting the second dose on time
- Natural immunity seems to run somewhere between roughly 3 to 8 months based on the data we have now.
- Natural immunity provides enough protection against new stains (unknown, so have to make a guess)

So that puts me "needing" to get the shot somewhere between 6 weeks (high likelihood of still being immune) and 6 months (likely no remaining natural immunity) after I recovered from COVID to make a smooth transition from natural to vaccinated immunity. Longer waits between shots reduce the upper end of how long I can wait and have some immunity.

Since I'm not in a priority group (phase 3), I'm guessing I'll be towards the back end of that window anyways, so I will need to take it as soon as I get the opportunity. It's not a scramble though, I'm not overly concerned, but at the same time don't want to delay unnecessarily into an uncertain future.

I also am guessing the longer I wait, the harder it will be to get the second shot as more people become eligible for it (unless completing the shot schedule for higher immunity is given priority over giving everyone partial immunity with just the first shot and then circling back for round two)

[SurelySerious]

5 hours ago, MyCS said:

Airlines will now allow passengers to fly without masks after Biden's mandate allows for medical exemptions

https://news.yahoo.com/airlines-now-allow-passengers-fly-164045480.html

What a nightmare for FAs to navigate. 

[ClearedHot]

22 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 

I'm in a similar boat (spending Christmas down with COVID wasn't fun), but will will get the vaccine as soon as it becomes available to me. (Not to say you're wrong in your reasoning)

Here's my assumptions:
- Need at least 42 days from that (28 days between shots, plus a couple weeks to build immunity following shot #2) from when I get the first shot to build immunity
- Shots are available on my schedule, and not running into delays, especially getting the second dose on time
- Natural immunity seems to run somewhere between roughly 3 to 8 months based on the data we have now.
- Natural immunity provides enough protection against new stains (unknown, so have to make a guess)

So that puts me "needing" to get the shot somewhere between 6 weeks (high likelihood of still being immune) and 6 months (likely no remaining natural immunity) after I recovered from COVID to make a smooth transition from natural to vaccinated immunity. Longer waits between shots reduce the upper end of how long I can wait and have some immunity.

Since I'm not in a priority group (phase 3), I'm guessing I'll be towards the back end of that window anyways, so I will need to take it as soon as I get the opportunity. It's not a scramble though, I'm not overly concerned, but at the same time don't want to delay unnecessarily into an uncertain future.

I also am guessing the longer I wait, the harder it will be to get the second shot as more people become eligible for it (unless completing the shot schedule for higher immunity is given priority over giving everyone partial immunity with just the first shot and then circling back for round two)

 

Not saying you are wrong, but there is other evidence to suggest you only need one shot.  Also, your immunity timeline is off from what I have read.  YMMV.

Previously infected COVID-19 patients may only need 1 vaccine dose

"Their antibodies started peaking at seven days, and they also achieved higher amounts of antibodies and neutralization of the virus in 14 days compared to those who have tested negative."

[jazzdude]

Not saying you are wrong, but there is other evidence to suggest you only need one shot.  Also, your immunity timeline is off from what I have read.  YMMV.
Previously infected COVID-19 patients may only need 1 vaccine dose
"Their antibodies started peaking at seven days, and they also achieved higher amounts of antibodies and neutralization of the virus in 14 days compared to those who have tested negative."

Not saying you are wrong, but there is other evidence to suggest you only need one shot.  Also, your immunity timeline is off from what I have read.  YMMV.
Previously infected COVID-19 patients may only need 1 vaccine dose
"Their antibodies started peaking at seven days, and they also achieved higher amounts of antibodies and neutralization of the virus in 14 days compared to those who have tested negative."

Interesting article, thanks. Hadn't seen anything on this, though it makes sense based on the rationale for a 2 shot sequence (initial reaction/antibodies, then immune memory/recall response).

I'll still get the shot when I can, but I'd be surprised if it's before this summer. Hopefully more research would be done by that point on vaccinating people who have already had COVID (and hopefully confirming the info in your linked article), especially if it means I only need 1 dose, and frees up 1 for someone else. I'm not in a rush or anything, and if I can't get a shot before natural immunity runs out, I'll just keep doing the best I can with social distancing/masking/etc.

I've read 8 months to 11 months on natural immunity, so picked the conservative one for my timeline. It also roughly lines up with my personal experience. Pretty sure I've had COVID twice, once in early March (couldn't get tested for Covid) and again in December (confirmed). I guess I could've caught something else in March, but running a low fever for 6 days, significant fatigue & chills, a dry cough, bruising on my toes, and a negative test for influenza A/B seems to all point to likely COVID.

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, MyCS said:

Remember that SoulCity instructor (spin class) who received her vaccine by filling out paperwork as an "educator?" Apparently, 20K NY teachers signed up for the vaccine. About 10K were paired with providers to receive their shots. Only 2.5K were actually inoculated due to shortages. 

The lady who teaches $800 spin classes cut in front of 17.5K educators who was waiting. 

No big deal, because those NY teachers aren't in class anyway and are fighting tooth and nail not to go back.

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

No big deal, because those NY teachers aren't in class anyway and are fighting tooth and nail not to go back.

Teachers are beginning to see increasing pressure to get back to work from policy makers on both sides of the aisle. The city of San Francisco today sued the teacher’s union there in an attempt to spur them back to classrooms. Teachers say they need more effective safety measures, from social distancing rules, to full up HVAC replacements. That’s all well and good, but they aren’t finding much sympathy from the general population, much of whom have been working with less than ideal COVID safety protocols in place for months. Police, fire, postal service, transportation workers, grocery workers, construction, military, and a plethora of other industries have been back to work with less than perfect safety measures in place. Time for teachers to join the real world, roll up their sleeves, and get back on the job. Our kids can’t afford to fall further behind. What’s more, In many, many ways, economic recovery is linked to a return to a regular school week. 

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

Teachers are beginning to see increasing pressure to get back to work from policy makers on both sides of the aisle. The city of San Francisco today sued the teacher’s union there in an attempt to spur them back to classrooms. Teachers say they need more effective safety measures, from social distancing rules, to full up HVAC replacements. That’s all well and good, but they aren’t finding much sympathy from the general population, much of whom have been working with less than ideal COVID safety protocols in place for months. Police, fire, postal service, transportation workers, grocery workers, construction, military, and a plethora of other industries have been back to work with less than perfect safety measures in place. Time for teachers to join the real world, roll up their sleeves, and get back on the job. Our kids can’t afford to fall further behind. What’s more, In many, many ways, economic recovery is linked to a return to a regular school week. 

Whats surprising to me is the stupid inconsistency in all of this. In North Carolina my brother's kids do remote school work but they still meet to do intramural sports/activities. Like WTF? The later, is definitely not essential and should be the first thing cancelled hands down. 

[ClearedHot]

13 hours ago, FLEA said:

Whats surprising to me is the stupid inconsistency in all of this. In North Carolina my brother's kids do remote school work but they still meet to do intramural sports/activities. Like WTF? The later, is definitely not essential and should be the first thing cancelled hands down. 

What is surprising to me is the inconsistent approaches are yielding the same outcomes.

Obviously Florida has leaned into the stay open camp full force and honestly I am surprised at the results when compared to full lock down states.  As I stated before I have a pending business trip to New Mexico that was put on hold because New Mexico is on full lock down (Schools all virtual, no dining in restaurants, 14 day mandatory quarantine for ALL of of state visitors).  In fact, New Mexico has labeled a48 of 49 other states as high risk.  Having had a nasty fight with COVID I am in favor of protective measures, masks, social distancing, washing hands and most importantly SCIENCE.  That being said the "close everything" approach is NOT working and it is wrecking state and city economies while yielding the same outcome with COVID.

When school started we had a long family debate about sending our son back or going virtual.  Our son was 100% "I am going back."  My wife was against it and I was down the middle.  Virtual has a lot of limitations and I worried about the social interaction aspect.  I work primarily from home and business trips have been minimal the past year so I could help him if needed, but I thought he would learn more and do better in person.  Ultimately we decided to send hm in person.  He has been sent home to quarantine twice do to "close contact with a positive case."  One of those periods coincided with Hurricane Sally so he only missed two days of actual school.  The second one aligned perfectly with a holiday and weekends and again he only missed a few days of actual school.  When our family (including him), got COVID that did keep him out for about 10 days and I was worried how that would impact his grades.  I spent a LOT of extra time reviewing right before he went back because he was walking into end of term exams.  He ended up pulling five A's and one B's for the term.

I went to pick up a pizza at our local joint two weeks ago and noticed EVERY seat in the place was full, including the bar. We started paying more attention and have gone out to eat two times in the last two weeks.  We walked in with masks and people looked at us funny.  NO ONE else in either restaurant had a mask on, I was shocked.  So I've been watching the state and local numbers expecting a big spike and it simply has not manifest.  I have continued to compare the New Mexico numbers against Florida and I am still bewildered by the result.  Keep in mind Florida has 10 times as many residents as New Mexico so when you view these numbers you will note New Mexico is testing a higher percentage of people, but the infection rate in the aggregate is almost exactly the same. 

Florida - New daily cases: 6,979, Tests per 100,000: 515.4

New Mexico - New daily cases: 670  Tests per 100,000: 717.1

My amateurish analysis would not pass peer review but I think at the 69,000' level it shows total lockdowns are making an appreciable difference and we need a better more thought out approach that doesn't wreck the economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MCO]

https://www.airforcemag.com/dod-makes-masks-mandatory-on-all-us-military-installations/
 

exciting stuff. Definitely don’t want anything to do with living on base now if I cant even hang out on the porch by myself without a mask on. I’m also not looking forward to 10-12 hours a day straight in a mask at work.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MCO

[FUSEPLUG]

Sooo... PT tests with masks on then?  Sounds like fun.

[SocialD]

Recently witnessed a SMSgt yelling at a people who weren't wearing a mask while walking BY THEMSELVES.  I guess he was just ahead of his time.  We've lost our fucking minds. 

 

 

 

[SocialD]

15 minutes ago, MyCS said:

It's mandatory on federal property. Don't condone the yelling. New rules due to new administration.

 

Inside, ok...but walking by yourself in an open area?  Like I said, we've lost our minds.  

Edited February 5, 2021 by SocialD

[FLEA]

These rules have been in place for most of EUCOM since March already. The mask thing doesn't bother me. In fact, in winter I grew to like it because it keeps my face warm. What does bother me is being restricted to a 30km radius of my house and not being able to use restaurants, businesses, bars, etc....it's been a really lonely year. Even in the squadron people cannot gather more than 1-2 and hang out. 

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, MyCS said:

The power of Executive Orders. At least you aren't being cavity searched if you're not wearing a mask driving through the gate....yet.

Yet...turns out anal swabs are more accurate for testing....just a matter of time.

[jazzdude]

Definitely interesting, though it sounds like just some extra data was required on specifically Indians.

It seems like certain races/ethnicities are more susceptible to COVID. It'll be interesting to see if that ends up being a biological/genetic issue, or a socioeconomic issue.

[di1630]

Why aren’t we seeing this virus decimate the third world which has less sanitization and healthcare?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app