COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[ViperMan]

2 hours ago, bennynova said:

If everyone is equally transmissible, then why single out unvaccinated people to take weekly tests?   These people will actually KNOW when they are sick because they would have symptoms.    The vaccinated are like walking Trojan horses...less symptoms but same transmission.

Exquisite logic. Unfortunately it's because that approach doesn't have the unstated, but desired, effect of stigmatizing the unvaccinated.

[raimius]

On 7/31/2021 at 2:05 PM, bennynova said:

If everyone is equally transmissible, then why single out unvaccinated people to take weekly tests?   These people will actually KNOW when they are sick because they would have symptoms.    The vaccinated are like walking Trojan horses...less symptoms but same transmission.

The administration has already admitted that their policy is designed to punish those who have not received the vaccine.  It's one of the better reasons all the forthcoming lawsuits may actually succeed (also, some ADA provisions).

[Pooter]

point to ponder:

I'm hearing rumblings that full FDA authorization for the vaccine is imminent, and with that status leadership is telling us it will be made mandatory for military members very soon. 
 

So the question is, does this change the risk calculus at all for those choosing not to get the shot so far?  If you will eventually be forced to take the shot and accept whatever side effect risks there are associated with the vaccine, why not just go ahead and get it now and at least buy yourself near term protection. 

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

point to ponder:

I'm hearing rumblings that full FDA authorization for the vaccine is imminent, and with that status leadership is telling us it will be made mandatory for military members very soon. 
 

So the question is, does this change the risk calculus at all for those choosing not to get the shot so far?  If you will eventually be forced to take the shot and accept whatever side effect risks there are associated with the vaccine, why not just go ahead and get it now and at least buy yourself near term protection. 

Protection from what? Honest question. Most members of the military are not at risk for COVID based on age and low co-morbidity due to service requirements. 

[Guardian]

Because in the near term the same risks exist. Meaning that the reasons not to get it still hold true in the near term and long term regardless of mandatory or not. No RNA modification alternative exists in the emergency or approved state. Come on Novavax!

[Guest]

On 7/30/2021 at 11:01 PM, Flai tu low said:

 

Pilots May Hold Key to Mobilizing Against Military COVID Vaccine Mandate

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/pilots-key-mobilizing-against-military-covid-vaccine-mandate/

Thanks for sharing that. That website has been incredibly helpful lately.

[Guest]

On 7/30/2021 at 3:43 PM, billy pilgrim said:

I'm just a pilot like most of the people here commenting.  We all deal with risk mitigation every day, as well as policies and rules that are smart and those that are dumb and those that are political.  It's nothing new.

I am not a doctor but know enough about math to be statistically literate.  I do like Nassim Talebs ideas on risk mitigation. Specifically "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

The vaccine might be almost 100% safe.  It might have major long term side effects.  There is no long term data on mRNA vaccines.  There will be in the future because so many people are being vaccinated right now.  A huge sampling pool will lead to some very accurate future analysis.  I just have no interest in being part of that pool.

As a relatively young healthy dude who has probably already had COVID I can see no real upside to getting a vaccine and a lot of downsides.  The way I see it, it's little different than investing in options in the market that have a probable gain but might bankrupt you. 

I did the mortality math a year ago and flying a single fighter training sortie had the same mortality for me as COVID.

Why is the government and the media pushing for this so hard?  THAT to me is creepy as  hell.

 

edit - spelling

I agree with you 100%. What's the plan for pilots/service-members who won't take it, even if it becomes FDA "approved" in September? Totally unrelated, but what's up with the FDA approving Biogen's Alzheimer's drug, Aduhelm, against the recommendation of an expert panel? Apparently it was shocking enough to cause three of the panel scientists of the advisory committee to resign knowing the FDA approved it despite the committee's recommendation.

It's obvious to anyone understanding the manufactured consent surrounding the compliance of this "pandemic" that the "pandemic" is being used to erode the People's rights (yes that includes military service-members) to include their own body autonomy. What happened to "My body, my choice."?

Don't take my word for it, take Dr. Robert Malone's. He's the co-inventor of the mRNA technology used in the injections. As a voluntary military, of a nation that claims to support liberty and freedom, where are we heading if this is allowed to continue? I'd suggest archiving this video before it's censored. At what point will commanders start taking that whole "support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic..." seriously?

 

[Pooter]

59 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Protection from what? Honest question. Most members of the military are not at risk for COVID based on age and low co-morbidity due to service requirements. 

Statistically speaking you're right. People our age/fitness level are very unlikely to be hospitalized or die from covid. But that possibility still exists as does the far more likely scenario of having a symptomatic infection that knocks you on your ass for a few days/weeks.  The vaccination greatly reduces the likelihood of both of those things.

And if you're going to be forced to take vaccine at some point anyway, you'll have to accept the vax side effects risks whether you want to or not. That side of the equation isn't changing. Just seems like a no-brainer to me to go ahead and get it if they're going to mandate it eventually.  Because if you hold out, you're basically buying all of the covid risk and all of the vaccine risk.

 

[Pooter]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

Because in the near term the same risks exist. Meaning that the reasons not to get it still hold true in the near term and long term regardless of mandatory or not. No RNA modification alternative exists in the emergency or approved state. Come on Novavax!

 

Any data on that? I'm not aware of any worrying short term vax side effects that are occurring in statistically significant amounts. Most of the arguments I've seen tie it to hypothetical infertility years down the road. And for the short term, we do actually have good data because there have been billions of doses administered. 

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Protection from what? Honest question. Most members of the military are not at risk for COVID based on age and low co-morbidity due to service requirements. 

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/16/1017002907/u-s-covid-deaths-are-rising-again-experts-call-it-a-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated

[GrndPndr]

5 minutes ago, pawnman said:

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/16/1017002907/u-s-covid-deaths-are-rising-again-experts-call-it-a-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated

I'm trying to stay focused on the bigger picture.  I keep adjusting the knobs to try and do that, but I think this thing is digital.  Related story (to Pawnman's NPR thing):

https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-dc-murders-surpass-coronavirus-deaths-july

[FLEA]

11 minutes ago, pawnman said:

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/16/1017002907/u-s-covid-deaths-are-rising-again-experts-call-it-a-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated

This article doesn't have anything statistically significant to the military population in it. It broadly lumps all unvaccinated in the same category without paying attention to finer data subsets. 

[Guardian]

Any data on that? I'm not aware of any worrying short term vax side effects that are occurring in statistically significant amounts. Most of the arguments I've seen tie it to hypothetical infertility years down the road. And for the short term, we do actually have good data because there have been billions of doses administered. 

I meant that in the short term posed in the question. Not short term side effects.

Meaning it doesn’t matter about getting it in the short term before it’s mandated.

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

Statistically speaking you're right. People our age/fitness level are very unlikely to be hospitalized or die from covid. But that possibility still exists as does the far more likely scenario of having a symptomatic infection that knocks you on your ass for a few days/weeks.  The vaccination greatly reduces the likelihood of both of those things.

And if you're going to be forced to take vaccine at some point anyway, you'll have to accept the vax side effects risks whether you want to or not. That side of the equation isn't changing. Just seems like a no-brainer to me to go ahead and get it if they're going to mandate it eventually.  Because if you hold out, you're basically buying all of the covid risk and all of the vaccine risk.

 

Dude, I'm telling ya there are people that will litigate this to their last separation paper. So noone is going to jump on this for a chance to not be sick for a few days. 

[TheNewGazmo]

Yep, Anthrax Part Duece.

[pawnman]

42 minutes ago, FLEA said:

This article doesn't have anything statistically significant to the military population in it. It broadly lumps all unvaccinated in the same category without paying attention to finer data subsets. 

Oh, here you go. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/01/992148299/covid-doesnt-discriminate-by-age-serious-cases-on-the-rise-in-younger-adults

"Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the country — about 35% of all hospital admissions. Those age 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults over 65 have fallen significantly."

[SurelySerious]

Some bases are back to masks for everyone without regard to vaccination status, so that incentive is gone, at least temporarily.

[TheNewGazmo]

8 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Some bases are back to masks for everyone without regard to vaccination status, so that incentive is gone, at least temporarily.

Not wearing a mask should of never been treated as an "incentive" and requiring one shouldn't be a punishment.

Edited August 2, 2021 by TheNewGazmo

[lloyd christmas]

42 minutes ago, pawnman said:

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/16/1017002907/u-s-covid-deaths-are-rising-again-experts-call-it-a-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated

This article doesn’t give death rates.  Most articles don’t….   So, I poked around the CDC website and looked at the number of daily deaths due to COVID.  In January there were days where upwards of 4000 deaths occurred.  We are currently seeing 100 to 400 per day across the country.  In the last 7 days the CDC website says 1999 people died due to COVID.  It also says the death rate per 100,000 is roughly half of a percent.  

I’m glad I’m a Texan and I’m glad Gov Abbott is standing firm against lockdowns.   

[Nodeskjobs]

17 minutes ago, lloyd christmas said:

This article doesn’t give death rates.  Most articles don’t….   So, I poked around the CDC website and looked at the number of daily deaths due to COVID.  In January there were days where upwards of 4000 deaths occurred.  We are currently seeing 100 to 400 per day across the country.  In the last 7 days the CDC website says 1999 people died due to COVID.  It also says the death rate per 100,000 is roughly half of a percent.  

I’m glad I’m a Texan and I’m glad Gov Abbott is standing firm against lockdowns.   

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

i like looking at this site. I don’t claim to research any of the numbers in depth, however the cases/deaths match, so I assume the recoveries do as well. The recoveries, the number you never see plastered all over the media. Also take a look at the closed cases as well as open cases. Of the 15.2 million active cases, 99.4% are mild and .6 severe, globally. Now I was following this site before the vaccines were released and in Jan. Mild cases were 99.6%

[FLEA]

35 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Oh, here you go. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/01/992148299/covid-doesnt-discriminate-by-age-serious-cases-on-the-rise-in-younger-adults

"Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the country — about 35% of all hospital admissions. Those age 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults over 65 have fallen significantly."

Still not statistically relevant. The innovation of the vaccine didn't change the risk young adults accepted. They are still accepting the same amount of risk. Correlation does not equal causation. The reason they make up the predominance of hospital admissions now is because the distribution of vaccines across the population scheme heavily favors the elderly. Nearly all adults over 50 are vaccinated, so with a 99% efficacy their admissions will drop. Younger adults admissions stayed the same but is now higher due to the older population dropping. 

 

Attached is one of the most important data sets you can follow right now which is the UK post a 70% vaccination distribution. Notice when they lifted restrictions in early summer there was a huge spike in cases and a corresponding rise in hospitalizations. However, the rise in hospitalizations isnt nearly as high as the peak of hospitalizations in mid-winter when the UK was experiencing a similar wave of cases. Despite similar case loads, less people went to the hospital. Why? Because the people that were getting COVID at that point were younger and had better resilience to combat COVID. You need to convince vaccine hesitant military members that they are in that small bubble in the bottom right, and the fact is the vast majority of military aren't in that sub-set. 

 

[pawnman]

2 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Still not statistically relevant. The innovation of the vaccine didn't change the risk young adults accepted. They are still accepting the same amount of risk. Correlation does not equal causation. The reason they make up the predominance of hospital admissions now is because the distribution of vaccines across the population scheme heavily favors the elderly. Nearly all adults over 50 are vaccinated, so with a 99% efficacy their admissions will drop. Younger adults admissions stayed the same but is now higher due to the older population dropping. 

 

Attached is one of the most important data sets you can follow right now which is the UK post a 70% vaccination distribution. Notice when they lifted restrictions in early summer there was a huge spike in cases and a corresponding rise in hospitalizations. However, the rise in hospitalizations isnt nearly as high as the peak of hospitalizations in mid-winter when the UK was experiencing a similar wave of cases. Despite similar case loads, less people went to the hospital. Why? Because the people that were getting COVID at that point were younger and had better resilience to combat COVID. You need to convince vaccine hesitant military members that they are in that small bubble in the bottom right, and the fact is the vast majority of military aren't in that sub-set. 

 

I don't have to convince the military anything. It's about to be mandatory. 

[FLEA]

26 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I don't have to convince the military anything. It's about to be mandatory. 

Fair enough. But I'm simply addressing the assertion made earlier that vaccine-hesitant people should get the shot now to protect themselves. The shot isn't protecting them. The government will order them to get it to benefit other people. As long as we all understand that this is mainly what's happening I don't care. But lets not stand on false moral podiums that they are benefiting from this. You have no way to ascertain that and neither does anyone except those individuals. Everyone is granted a right to bodily autonomy and we are choosing to violate that for military members because our elected officials, and maybe society, believes they don't deserve that right in favor of other priorities. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by FLEA

[pawnman]

2 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Fair enough. But I'm simply addressing the assertion made earlier that vaccine-hesitant people should get the shot now to protect themselves. The shot isn't protecting them. The government will order them to get it to benefit other people. As long as we all understand that this is mainly what's happening I don't care. But lets not stand on false moral podiums that they are benefiting from this. You have no way to ascertain that and neither does anyone except those individuals. Everyone is granted a right to bodily autonomy and we are choosing to violate that for military members because our elected officials, and maybe society, believes they don't deserve that right in favor of priorities. 

But they are protecting themselves.  They have a lower mortality rate than elderly, but not zero. And the mortality rate from covid among the younger crowd is WAY higher than the mortality rate of the vaccines. 

[FLEA]

1 minute ago, pawnman said:

But they are protecting themselves.  They have a lower mortality rate than elderly, but not zero. And the mortality rate from covid among the younger crowd is WAY higher than the mortality rate of the vaccines. 

Yes but you are talking in such low probabilities right now its insignificant. Seriously, if you really cared about probabilities this low, you would be telling your Airman not to drive to work every day. Accidents still remains the #1 cause of death of young adults, pandemic or not. 

Furthermore, you are making an assertion that you know what is best for them and their lives. That's a very dangerous line of thinking.