COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[hockeydork]

14 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Care to explain?

Respectfully, I think that is the same exact arguement. 

Just that a nuclear sub with a COVID outbreak is probably a much bigger problem than the Redsox playing with half the roster.

[Kenny Powers]

18 minutes ago, TheNewGazmo said:

All you have to do is type "US vaccination rates" into Google and you'll get your data. You can look at other countries as well. We are actually right at 62.7% with at least one dose and 53.3% fully vaccinated as of 2 Sep.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+vaccination+rate&oq=us+vsccin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i10i433l3j0i10.2727j0j7&client=ms-android-hms-tmobile-us&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Depending on what you read, one shot of Pfizer or Moderna gets you to about 60-80% efficacy 30 days after your first shot. Two gets you to over 90%. Again... efficacy = reduction of severe disease and death; not infection.

The big deal is partly due to fanatical views by people who believe everyone should be vaccinated. While I think that people who believe the government is tracking them with some sort of device in the form of a COVID vaccine or believe they are being injected with stem cells from aborted babies are total morons, I can respect someone's educated decision to not get vaccinated and resist the urge to point fingers and blame them for our full hospitals. Noone points the finger at smokers or diabetics (type 2) filling beds who had a choice to live life more healthy.

60,000 people died during the 2017-18 flu endemic in a 3-4 month timespan. It was one of the worst flu seasons in decades. Most of them weren't vaccinated. Not just old people, but children as well. If the flu was as seasonally resistant as COVID, we would have seen at least triple the deaths from the flu that year. Apparently hospitals claimed the sky was falling and were overrun with flu patients, treating them triage-style in tents. Guess what. I am getting that data from the link posted earlier today. You know why? I don't remember that happening at all. It is literally news to me halfway through 2021. You know what made the news more than that during winter of 2017-18? Rocket Man and Orange Man on the brink of war. I remember nothing about a flu "endemic". While I realize COVID is in a bit of a different league than the common flu, the word "endemic" was thrown out there back then. When you use that word, it's a serious matter. There was no mandatory mask wear. There were no corporations mandating flu shots and charging people $200 extra on their health insurance if they didn't get one. This country is a crazy place right now....

 

Good post! I think that realistically explains what is going on.

53.3% fully vaccinated is close enough to 50/50 for me.

Still difficult to attribute the other 46.7% of not fully vaccinated people to one thing or another.

That's a significant data point. Keep in mind, we have had a significant amount of deaths and hospitalizations over this virus and we still have half the country not vaccinated.

Bottom line - regardless of the facts, I think this boils down to our country doesn't trust our government.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Kenny Powers

[TheNewGazmo]

18 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Good post! I think that realistically explains what is going on.

53.3% fully vaccinated is close enough to 50/50 for me.

Still difficult to attribute the other 46.7% of not fully vaccinated people to one thing or another.

That's a significant data point. Keep in mind, we have had a significant amount of deaths and hospitalizations over this virus and we still have half the country not vaccinated.

Bottom line - regardless of the facts, I think this boils down to our country doesn't trust our government.

I'd love to say the vaccine is the answer to all of our problems, but we don't yet know what numbers we need to get herd immunity.  With Measles, it's about 95%.  With Polio, it was 80%.  Flus are hard to vaccinate against because they mutate every season.  There are states right now, like Vermont for example, that have 70%+ vaccination rates and are still going through a "spike".  Most of them are nothing like the spike we saw last December/January, but a spike larger than the initial spike in April of 2020.  It does, however, look like most of the spikes over the last month or so are on the downslope.

[pawnman]

9 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

So, even if it's 100%, is your position that we should mandate vaccines on everyone for a 0.30% increase in survival rate?

Everyone in the US? Probably not. 

Everyone in the military? Absolutely. Because death isn't the only thing that will hurt our readiness. Being unable to get off a ship or aircraft in a host country due to Covid infections hurts us. Having people quarantined at home hurts us. Having people in the hospital hurts us, even if they later recover. 

[brabus]

18 hours ago, Prozac said:

1: Far less likely to get COVID if you have been vaccinated and 2: If you do get a breakthrough infection, you are likely to have a much smaller viral load and will be contagious for a shorter period of time. 

10 hours ago, pawnman said:

The Kentucky study shows that "natural immunity" isn't as good as vaccination. 

1. CDC study on MA 3-17 Jul:

- 74% of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons

- Among this group, 5 people were hospitalized. 4 were vaccinated, aged 20-70, and 2 of those had underlying med conditions. 1 was unvaccinated, age 50-59, and had multiple med conditions

- CDC: “Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.”

2. Israeli study around the same time:

- Overview: study found natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization for the Delta variant of Coronavirus compared to Pfizer vaccine

- Model 1: risk of break through infection was 13.06 times higher among vaccinated patients (vs. reinfection of those with natural immunity) and they were 27 times more likely to be symptomatic than unvaccinated people who'd had COVID previously

- Model 2: risk of break through infection was 5.96 times higher among vaccinated patients (vs. reinfection of those with natural immunity) and they were 7.13 times more likely to be symptomatic than unvaccinated people who'd had COVID previously

(Model 1 was between people with same time of first event, and Model 2 was without syncing)

- Israeli Health Ministry (IHM): “With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already [naturally] infected with COVID. By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection”

- IHM: “effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has fallen to 40%”

No spears, just data that many have not likely seen. The Israeli study did find a .53 times increase in protection if you had natural immunity + 1x shot. So, it’s not an anti-vax study, but does demonstrate the effectiveness of the vaccine and the expected results post-vaccine compared to natural immunity is substantially different than what the media, big pharm, and everyone who’s bought off on what they’re selling, is arguing.

 

[pawnman]

Just now, brabus said:

1. CDC study on MA 3-17 Jul:

- 74% of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons

- Among this group, 5 people were hospitalized. 4 were vaccinated, aged 20-70, and 2 of those had underlying med conditions. 1 was unvaccinated, age 50-59, and had multiple med conditions

- CDC: “Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.”

2. Israeli study around the same time:

- Overview: study found natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization for the Delta variant of Coronavirus compared to Pfizer vaccine

- Model 1: risk of break through infection was 13.06 times higher among vaccinated patients (vs. reinfection of those with natural immunity) and they were 27 times more likely to be symptomatic than unvaccinated people who'd had COVID previously

- Model 2: risk of break through infection was 5.96 times higher among vaccinated patients (vs. reinfection of those with natural immunity) and they were 7.13 times more likely to be symptomatic than unvaccinated people who'd had COVID previously

(Model 1 was between people with same time of first event, and Model 2 was without syncing)

- Israeli Health Ministry (IHM): “With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already [naturally] infected with COVID. By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection”

- IHM: “effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has fallen to 40%”

No spears, just data that many have not likely seen. The Israeli study did find a .53 times increase in protection if you had natural immunity + 1x shot. So, it’s not an anti-vax study, but does demonstrate the effectiveness of the vaccine and the expected results post-vaccine compared to natural immunity is substantially different than what the media, big pharm, and everyone who’s bought off on what they’re selling, is arguing.

 

So in the end, the Israeli data shows exactly what the Kentucky data shows...if you already had covid, you are still better off getting vaccinated that relying on natural immunity. 

Because the KY study only focused on people who had already recovered from covid once, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

[FLEA]

1 minute ago, pawnman said:

Everyone in the US? Probably not. 

Everyone in the military? Absolutely. Because death isn't the only thing that will hurt our readiness. Being unable to get off a ship or aircraft in a host country due to Covid infections hurts us. Having people quarantined at home hurts us. Having people in the hospital hurts us, even if they later recover. 

We haven't had that issue yet though. I'm fact nearly every country we work routinely in has exceptions for movements of military forces under status agreements. We are still regularly PCSing people to Europe and Asia, conducting essential TDYs, and upholding deployment obligations. 

The US government hurt it's own position on a readiness argument in the fallout from Crozier and the continued narrative that our readiness hasn't suffered. 

[brabus]

16 minutes ago, pawnman said:

So in the end, the Israeli data shows exactly what the Kentucky data shows...if you already had covid, you are still better off getting vaccinated that relying on natural immunity. 

Because the KY study only focused on people who had already recovered from covid once, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

Cool, you latched onto the .53x increase, while not addressing:

- the massive amounts higher probability of being reinfected with COVID/being symptomatic if you’re vaccinated vs. natural immunity

- Vaccination status has little effect on viral loads

And since you breezed my post in about 30” based on your reply time, you left out an important chunk of the study conclusion, which to highlight is ”natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization for the Delta variant of Coronavirus compared to Pfizer vaccine,” as well as failed to address how the vaccinated were the bigger problem in MA than the unvaccinated. 
 

This is not a pandemic of the unvaccinated (blanket statement) as the media is cramming down your throat, but you can argue those at high risk who aren’t vaccinated are causing issues. So, it’s a “pandemic of those people,” not one of low-risk, unvaccinated people. And if you already had COVID, you’re better off by a large margin than those who have been vaccinated and have not had COVID yet.
 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by brabus

[TheNewGazmo]

2 minutes ago, brabus said:

Cool, you latched onto the .53x increase, while not addressing:

- the massive amounts higher probability of being reinfected with COVID/being symptomatic if you’re vaccinated vs. natural immunity

- Vaccination status has little effect on viral loads

And since you breezed my post in about 30” based on your reply time, you left out an important chunk of the study conclusion, which to highlight is ”natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization for the Delta variant of Coronavirus compared to Pfizer vaccine,” as well as failed to address how the vaccinated were the bigger problem in MA than the unvaccinated. 
 

 

 

One thing that pointed toward a higher chance of infection/reinfection for the vaccinated, at least in this country, was the fact that the vaccinated, as a whole, have become complacent and have gone back to "normal life"; ie: going on vacations, hitting up bars, and participating in large crowd events while the unvaccinated still maintained some semblance of "social distancing" and mask wear.

In the end, the argument can still remain that the vaccine doesn't work as advertised.

[Blue]

13 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

COVID is over fuck can we move on with our lives 

Yeah, this.

@pawnman, you're probably the most prolific poster in this thread.

Why don't you step back and tell us a little about yourself, and why this is such an important topic to you.

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, Blue said:

Yeah, this.

@pawnman, you're probably the most prolific poster in this thread.

Why don't you step back and tell us a little about yourself, and why this is such an important topic to you.

That's fine. I got what I wanted. Y'all are either getting vaccinated or getting out.

[Guardian]

What is it that you wanted?

[pawnman]

Just now, Guardian said:

What is it that you wanted?

I want an end to the pandemic. Which means people taking the most basic of steps... like wearing a mask and getting vaccinated. 

But since "muh freedoms" seem to be more important than common decency and basic scientific literacy, I'll take the SECDEF ramming it down the throats of people who refuse to listen to reason. 

[HeloDude]

How dare people in the military support freedom!

[pawnman]

12 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

How dare people in the military support freedom!

Almost as strange as expecting them to care about their fellow Americans or follow orders. 

Wild stuff. 

[BashiChuni]

29 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I want an end to the pandemic. Which means people taking the most basic of steps... like wearing a mask and getting vaccinated. 

But since "muh freedoms" seem to be more important than common decency and basic scientific literacy, I'll take the SECDEF ramming it down the throats of people who refuse to listen to reason. 

Wearing a mask doesn’t work. Nothing works to stop the virus it’s gonna spread bro everyone is gonna get it. Get over yourself and get off your high horse it’s obnoxious. 
 

glad to see you hold your freedoms in such high regard! Common decency is to let Americans move on with their FUCKING LIVES without you, the CDC, and fauci dictating to us. Scared of the virus? Stay home. Stay safe. Mask up. It’s only two weeks. 

[BashiChuni]

“Follow the science”

[pawnman]

Take it up with SECDEF.

They've already kicked one person for refusing the vaccine and mask.  I'm pretty sure there's about to be a bunch more.

I'll be cheering each and every one.

[Guardian]

Why would you cheer each and everyone? You know that masks and vaccines wont stop the pandemic right?

[busdriver]

4 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I'll be cheering each and every one.

Take a look in the mirror.  Your self-righteous rage is creepy.

[HeloDude]

Care about your fellow Americans and follows orders!  Come on now…they did this without a problem in the 1940’s!

https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/japanese-relocation#background

[SocialD]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Take it up with SECDEF.

They've already kicked one person for refusing the vaccine and mask.  I'm pretty sure there's about to be a bunch more.

I'll be cheering each and every one.

 

We're required to wear masks? 

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Wearing a mask doesn’t work. Nothing works to stop the virus it’s gonna spread bro everyone is gonna get it. Get over yourself and get off your high horse it’s obnoxious. 
 

glad to see you hold your freedoms in such high regard! Common decency is to let Americans move on with their ING LIVES without you, the CDC, and fauci dictating to us. Scared of the virus? Stay home. Stay safe. Mask up. It’s only two weeks. 

Legit question, I’m not trying to flame, I just don’t go online much, but when you say “Nothing works to stop the virus,” do you include vaccines in that statement? Because my understanding is that if 100% of the population were vaccinated, we’d have a lot fewer people being hospitalized right now—so few that it wouldn’t be any different than a regular season’s flu, thereby reducing the pandemic to just another regular illness. Am I wrong in thinking that way? 

[Guardian]

Yes

[busdriver]

35 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Yes

You're talking crazy.  If everyone where vaccinated, the case load would absolutely be reduced by a large amount.

It would not be reduced to zero.  But it would be a lot less.

 

Based on the single data point of 1918, I figure we've got another year of this.  So hold on to your butts everyone.